Oct 7, 2013; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; Tampa Bay Rays right fielder Matt Joyce (20) works out prior to game three of the American League divisional series against the Boston Red Sox at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Looking Back, Moving Forward: Matt Joyce

2011 was Matt Joyce‘s year. He hit .277 with a .347 on base percentage, 19 homers, 75 RBI and a .825 OPS and represented the Rays at the All-Star Game The Tampa native was only 26 that year and appeared on the brink of stardom. Instead, Joyce regressed in 2012 as his batting average dropped to .241, on base percentage to .341, home runs to 17, RBI to 59, and OPS to .769. Joyce and the Rays hoped he would rebound  in 2013. The Rays signed him to a $2.45 million contract and played him often, shifting him between right, left, and DH as they hoped to find some formula that worked. Instead, Joyce fell victim to yet another enigmatic season, putting his future in question.

Joyce started slowly in April, hitting .225 but with 5 home runs. He caught fire in May, batting .299 with a .396 on base average for the month as he began batting at the top of the Rays’ lineup consistently. Then in June, Joe Maddon put Joyce in the leadoff spot and Joyce justified his confidence by reaching the 14 homer mark, challenging Evan Longoria for the team lead. However, he stayed at that number for a month as his success was fleeting once again.

Joyce hit only .222 with no homers in July even as the Rays reeled off one of the best months in their history. Joyce’s playing time declined after Wil Myers joined the team, but Maddon tried to keep him fresh, giving him at-bats in left field and at DH (especially when Luke Scott was out with injuries) to keep him sharp. Joyce responded with a torrid August, hitting .350 with a .425 on base percentage and 3 home runs in 25 games. But Joyce’s season finished on a downer as slumped badly during the Rays’ stretch drive in September, hitting .089 with one home run for the month, and going hitless during the ALDS.

Joyce ended the season with the second highest home run total on the Rays, with 18, but his OPS declined the second straight year to .747, batting average fell to .235, and his RBI total of 47 was his lowest in three years. With Wil Myers set in right field and Desmond Jennings in center, the only spot available for Joyce is the lefty bat in a left field/DH platoon. If the Rays re-sign David DeJesus, one would think that would be DeJesus’ role, with Sam Fuld serving as a defensive replacement. Joyce earned $2.45 million in 2012, and will only get more expensive the second time through arbitration. Is Joyce worth bringing back?

Matt Joyce is not a completely lost cause. He hits right-handed pitching very well on the whole and can carry the time when he goes on one of his hot streaks. He’ll also be only be 29 in 2014 and is popular with the fans. But after a rough season, the Rays will probably decline to tender Joyce a contract to avoid arbitration. Maybe the Rays will try to bring back Joyce at a lower price, but you have to wonder after years of waiting for Joyce to find consistent performance whether the Rays have finally given up.

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6 Comments on Looking Back, Moving Forward: Matt Joyce

  1. Ryan says:

    I don’t see why the Rays would non-tender Joyce at all. Hard to find someone who can provide his kind of production for anything less, and its not like the Rays to just let a useful piece like that go for free, especially with the offense already being as inconsistent as it is. Makes no sense whatsoever. The Rays suffered through Upton’s inconsistency, don’t see why Joyce isn’t in the same situation.

    • Ryan says:

      Remember, they were willing to bring Scott back after an even worse year, and he offered less upside than Joyce does.

    • david egbert says:

      I think Peter’s last sentence decribes it best. After four years of trying, and failing, to develop Matt Joyce into a consistent, all around ball player, it’s time to move on.

      • Ryan says:

        So give up the Rays only left-handed power source for free cause he’s not totally consistent? Does not fit the Rays MO at all, and is a complete waste of a useful asset. You platoon Joyce and Guyer or Joyce and Zobrist in left, you’ll get perfectly good production.

  2. Robbie_Knopf says:

    I do think we at RCG may be exaggerating the chances that Joyce gets non-tendered, but I will say this regarding the Upton comp, lefty power, and Scott: Matt Joyce is a flawed player suddenly set to make real money by Rays standards. He doesn’t hit lefties and is extremely streaky even against righties. He doesn’t even play good defense. The Rays have to at least be considering a non-tender. Does anyone dispute that?

    • Ryan says:

      I would not dispute that at all. I think the Rays would definitely at least consider non-tendering Joyce considering that, as you stated, he is starting to make a pretty good amount and is rather inconsistent. However, I would say the probability of that happening this year is pretty low, considering the production he gives is still about worth what he will be making from the Rays perspective. Also, the Rays aren’t known for letting go of players unless they really don’t like their attitude or they just aren’t worth their salary, and even these are under fairly extreme circumstances. If we’re having this same conversation next year after another year of declining performance from Joyce, though, my tune would change quite a bit.

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