For the future, you can feel free to email us at rayscoloredglasses@gmail.com with any questions related to the Rays or baseball in general. More importantly, though, we all really appreciate your comments on every piece, and when you have something to say, don’t hesitate to contribute to the conversation however big or small. Here’s what David Egbert and I talked about here, and please note that I’ve never met David before- this type of discussion can just happen naturally when you have people passionate about baseball wanting to talk about the issues that are meaningful to them. This is the second straight time that we’re doing this feature based on a discussion between David and I, but this is something that can happen between anyone at the site and we’re looking forward to seeing what else our conversations can lead to.

David Egbert: The Rays do an amazingly good job of developing staring pitching at the minor league level. However, they do a very poor job of developing relief pitching. Name the last relief pitcher that was developed in the Rays system. Had they spotted Jake McGee as a relief pitcher in the minors and honed either his slider or change or both, we wouldn’t be having this discussion.

Robbie Knopf: Interesting claim that could be worth looking into in a future post. I guess my one second rebuttal is that 1) McGee was a special case because his fastball was just so good, and 2) most relievers are failed starters and the Rays have just been so good developing starters that the electric arms that in other organizations might have gone to relief have stayed in the rotation.

RK: You don’t need to mold Torres. He has shown the ability to go from starting to relieving without a problem so far (he excelled in a relief role in September of 2011 after starting all season) so you might as well keep his trade value and versatility at the maximum while a spot in the major leagues remains elusive for him. If Cesar Ramos (and/or McGee) keeps struggling, the Rays will call him up and convert him then. It’s not like Torres is about to be the Rays’ closer–he’ll probably begin as a long relief/low-leverage lefty kind of pitcher and then work his way up in the majors.

DE: I respectfully disagree. However, we still have not addressed the issue of why the Rays don’t seem to have a track for relievers in the minor leagues. They sure have a great model for starters. I know Andrew Friedman does great job of finding gems in the garbage pile but it just seems that they throw roster fillers into the bullpen in the minors. It seems to not match up with “the Rays Way”.

RK: Who are the Rays’ relief prospects? Zach Quate and Lenny Linsky are two of them, but shoulder injuries have set them back at this point. Maybe Jeff Ames and Parker Markel are two more, but you give him a chance to start for as long as possible. Why are there so few of them? Because of the Rays’ approach in the draft, going for high-upside high school players. The Rays have no problem signing relievers on the market so instead that would rather go for players with the potential of being a starter than drafting more conservative and selecting college players with the ability to move into relief. With that in mind, players are much more likely to flame out if they fail as opposed to ending up in the bullpen, with most of them being only being converted into relief when there’s no other option and most of them just continuing to fall apart. The Rays don’t need relief prospects so they don’t have them. Maybe that will change, but the Rays would rather have as many players available to start and decide roles as team need dictates them to do so.

DE: I would add Nick Sawyer and maybe Adam Liberatore to that very short list. You are obviously right about the Ray’s current thinking. I would just seem that with a guy like Parker Markel where you would reach a point at high A or AA where you say this guys got talent but not enough to make our rotation and switch his track. Thanks for another good discussion, Robbie. You are closer to the scene that I am and I appreciate your insight.

RK: You’re definitely right about Sawyer (although he’s a major outlier as a 40th round pick who burst onto the scene), and Liberatore could be a LOOGY. Great discussion once again.

David Egbert: This is the last we will see Jeff Niemann in a Rays uniform. They will never go to arbitration with him after his injury history.

Robbie Knopf: I would tend to agree, but would you completely rule out bringing back at say $2.4MM (a 20% paycut from this year) as a back-of-the-rotation type who could generate some trade value? I don’t think it’s a complete certainty.

DE: With Chris Archer, Alex Colome and Jake Odorizzi waiting in the wings, I would spend $2.4MM elsewhere.

RK: I probably agree with you, but let me play Devil’s Advocate. David Price gets traded, yielding no big league-ready pitchers, and after Hernandez leaves as a free agent, your remaining starters are Matt Moore, Jeremy Hellickson, Alex Cobb, and the three you mentioned. Do the Rays really want a rotation with 27 year old Hellickson as the elder statesman? What if Colome proves to be more of a bullpen guy and somebody gets injured? Isn’t worth it to bring Niemann to camp and see how he looks before either giving him a rotation spot or trading him away for a team thinking $2.5MM is a real bargain?

DE: In a perfect world, yes. However, we really need position players. This plan of turning lemons into lemonade with guys like Ryan Roberts, Luke Scott, James Loney, Kelly Johnson and Jose Molina just is not working. I’d rather use our trade bait (Price?) and treasure to obtain good position players and go with the young pitching talent that we have.

DE: As my granddaughter would say, “this is fun.” I think it’s about what you get for your money. Right now in Niemann, Johnson and Roberts, we are paying $9.0 million for a sore armed pitcher and two mediocre position players. If you put a good portion of that money into one decent position player, your team is greatly improved.

Ryan P. asks via Facebook: Among Elliot Johnson, Reid Brignac, and Sean Rodriguez, who is most likely the odd man out after the Kelly Johnson signing?

As we discussed yesterday, the Rays agreeing to terms with Kelly Johnson means that not only have the Rays added a solid hitter and infield depth, but they’ve also created for themselves a major issue on their 40-man roster. According to the Rays’ official website, their 40-man roster currently stands at the full 40, and not on that roster are Kyle Farnsworth, Luke Scott, and Yunel Escobar, all of whom the Rays’ agreed to sign, meaning that the Rays are going to have to designate three players for assignment. A pretty safe bet is that the Rays are going to be parting ways with a pitcher, a catcher, and an infielder. The pitcher will probably be Dane De La Rosa or Josh Lueke. The catcher will probably be Stephen Vogt or Robinson Chirinos (Chris Gimenez finished 2012 strong and it looks like the Rays will give him a shot in spring training). The infielder that will be designated, though, is a much better question that Ryan picked up on. Here are the current infielders on the Rays’ 40-man roster.

2B/SS Tim Beckham
UTIL Reid Brignac
SS Yunel Escobar
UTIL Elliot Johnson
SS Hak-Ju Lee
1B James Loney
3B Evan Longoria
2B/3B Ryan Roberts
UTIL Sean Rodriguez

Of those nine players, Longoria, Escobar, and Loney are starting infielders, Roberts does not have a set role given the presences of Ben Zobrist (who’s listed as an outfielder) and now Kelly Johnson but should still receive a lot of plate appearances against left-handed pitching, and Lee and Beckham are in a different category entirely as top prospects.  The three names that stand out on that list are the three players listed as utility players, Reid Brignac, Elliot Johnson, and Sean Rodriguez., and it seems like one of them is going to have to go. Who should it be?

Brignac, who recently turned 27, was a former top prospect for the Rays who has never panned out offensively, managing just a .227/.268/.317 line (63 OPS+) with in 716 major league plate appearances. Brignac was moderately better at Triple-A in 2012, managing a .231/.323/.353 line with 14 doubles, 8 homers, 46 RBI, and a 79-45 strikeout to walk ratio. He recovered nicely after a disastrous start in April and May after the Rays sent him down to the minor leagues, managing a .244/.331/.354 line with 9 doubles, 6 homers, 37 RBI, and a 54-31 strikeout to walk ratio in 288 plate appearances including a walk rate that was the highest of his career, but we can’t downplay the fact that he hasn’t hit at all in the major leagues. Brignac does bring with him the most upside of three as he hit 41 home runs in the minor leagues between 2006 and 2007 and still has untapped potential at the plate, and he’s also the best defender of the three, being above-average at shortstop and more than capable everywhere else on the infield, although his experience at positions other than shortstop isn’t very extensive. However, his potential have never come through at higher levels- his OPS has gone down at every level from High-A to the major leagues- and his defensive abilities mean nothing if he doesn’t hit at all. Brignac is still very cheap as a pre-arbitration player, but if he can’t hit, he doesn’t even deserve the MLB minimum salary. Brignac is a halfway-decent all-around player and he may still make a breakthrough at the plate, but there’s no guarantee that he’ll be able to do anything of enough value to stay on the Rays’ major league roster. As a player who’s out of options, Reid Brignac may have very well run out of time.

Johnson, who will turn 29 in March, was the 25th man on the Rays’ roster in 2012 as an out-of-options player, but he actually hit very well for a time when injuries gave him a chance to start as he managed a .272/.342/.394 line with 6 doubles, 4 homers, 20 RBI, 13 of 17 stolen bases, and a 47-18 strikeout to walk ratio in 65 games and 202 plate appearances. But Johnson collapsed the rest of the year, managing just a .197/.244/.282 line, and on the season he finished with a .242/.304/.350 line, an 84 OPS+, in 331 plate appearances. In 531 plate appearances with the Rays over the years, Johnson’s career line is .223/.283/.338 (75 OPS+). Johnson has proven to be a halfway-decent hitter as a switch-hitter who has his moments, and defensively he can play just about everywhere, seeing time at every infield and outfield position. The issue is that Johnson is below-average everywhere, and especially so where the Rays needed him most last year, shortstop, where he was, by all accounts statistical or observational, a disaster last year. Johnson seems to have the range and arm strength to profile just about everywhere, but erratic actions and throws make him an extremely inconsistent player and a sub-par one overall. It’s OK to be a bat-first utility man, but Johnson doesn’t hit either. Johnson does have nice speed, swiping 18 of 24 bases in 2012, but that’s really the only thing he does well. Johnson is still making near the minimum as a pre-arbitration player. Elliot Johnson does still have value because of his outstanding versatility, but is it worth to keep him basically just for that?

Rodriguez, who will turn 28 in April, was acquired by the Rays in the Scott Kazmir deal, was a productive player for the Rays in 2010 and 2011, managing a .236/.316/.376 line (94 OPS+) with 39 doubles, 17 homers, 76 RBI, 24 of 34 stolen bases, and a 184-59 strikeout to walk ratio in 249 games and 814 plate appearances between the two seasons. However, Rodriguez completely dropped off when the Rays gave him his big break to be a starting shortstop in the big leagues in 2012, managing just a .213/.281/.326 line (71 OPS+) with 14 doubles, 6 homers, 32 RBI, 5 stolen bases, and a 75-27 strikeout to walk ratio in 342 plate appearances. Rodriguez, a right-handed hitter has been much better against lefty pitching than righty pitching in his career, managing a .252/.362/.389 line compared to a .211/.266/.339 line versus righties, and that could bode well for Rodriguez because James Loney, Kelly Johnson, and Luke Scott are all lefties that Rodriguez could spell. Defensively, Rodriguez is a plus defender at second base, but that happens to be the positions that the Rays are going to ask him to play the least, and he had his share of trouble trying to handle shortstop and third base for the Rays in 2012. He does have position at every position in the infield and outfield, but the lack of fluidity and apparent effort in his throwing motion doesn’t work well for the left side of the infield and he won’t be receiving many starts on the right side of the infield as an inferior hitter to Ben Zobrist, James Loney, Kelly Johnson, and Ryan Roberts. A major issue for Rodriguez is that he was arbitration-eligible for the first time this offseason and will make 1 million dollars, more than Brignac and Elliot Johnson combined. Rodriguez has a better offensive track record than Johnson and Brignac and has the advantage of being a right-handed batter, but his lack of defensive value and salary could be what gets him off the roster. One other thing in Rodriguez’s favor is that he still has a minor league option remaining, meaning that he could start next season in the minor leagues. But given his salary, that means nothing because paying him $1MM to play at Triple-A is not something the Rays are going to do.

The main reason that Brignac, Johnson, and Rodriguez have been retained by the Rays until now is their ability to play shortstop, and that matters less because Yunel Escobar is now in the fold for the Rays. Escobar did go on the DL in 2010 and 2011, but he has averaged 138 games and 591 plate appearances the last five years and there will not be that many opportunities for others to start in his place. Also, given the versatility of Ben Zobrist, the Rays don’t need to have a player on the roster just to play shortstop. The Rays knowledge that Zobrist can fill in at shortstop if Escobar gets hurt or needs a day off renders Brignac redundant given that he doesn’t hit, and Johnson’s versatility means little as well. The bottom line among who makes the Rays’ roster among these three is who is going to hit, and Rodriguez has the advantage in that regard. He may be making more than Brignac and Johnson combined, but $1MM is not that much even for the Rays and the Rays can afford to pay him that as a backup player.

Deciding between Brignac and Johnson comes down to not only their abilities but also who the Rays think will pass through waivers. Whoever the Rays choose is presumably going to be the Rays’ 25th man to begin 2013. In terms of your 25th man, what would you rather have, a pinch-runner like Johnson or a defensive wiz like Brignac? Given that Johnson went just 6 of 13 stealing bases when he didn’t get consistent playing time in 2011 while Brignac’s defense is a known quantity, I think the Rays have to choose Brignac over Johnson unless they’re sure Brignac will pass through waivers and remain in the organization. Johnson may have more extensive experience all over the field than Brignac, but Brignac is more athletic and has better defensive tools, and teaching him the positions he is not as experienced playing should not be much of a problem. Brignac has been a complete bust offensively the past couple of years, but the Rays appreciate his defense and he may have finally turned a corner at the plate this year at Triple-A.  It seems counter-intuitive given that Johnson beat out Brignac for big league time in 2012, but Brignac is the player who gives the Rays more value right now and Elliot Johnson seems to be the player among the utility infielder types on the Rays’ 40-man roster who is about to get designated for assignment.