Zobrist has left #Rays because grandmother died, may miss Monday too

— Marc Topkin (@TBTimes_Rays) May 5, 2013

It’s terrible that Zobrist’s grandmother died and he certainly bares no blame for leaving the team. However, without him the Rays journey just becomes even tougher. Here’s their lineup for today’s game.

1. Desmond Jennings, CF
2. Matthew Joyce, RF
3. Evan Longoria, 3B
4. James Loney, 1B
5. Kelly Johnson, LF
6. Ryan Roberts, 2B
7. Jose Lobaton, C
8. Sean Rodriguez, SS
9. Alex Cobb, P

Without Zobrist, the Rays lineup goes from passable to decrepit. Kelly Johnson batting fifth? Ryan Roberts batting sixth, against a right-handed hitter no less? And without Zobrist, the Rays lose plenty of versatility and didn’t even have time to replace him on the roster as Zobrist’s departure was so sudden. With Yunel Escobar out after getting hit by a pitch, Rodriguez is the only shortstop left on the Rays roster–if he goes down, Ryan Roberts would probably have to play out of position at shortstop (he played there in the minors leagues, last in 2010). Evan Longoria also has one major league game, a start, at shortstop. Rodriguez probably won’t get hurt, but except in the most desperate situation, the Rays can’t pinch-hit for him or risk exposing their defense. The situation is so dire that Joe Maddon said that he will use pitchers to pinch-run and pinch-hit if he has to. How will the Rays make it through this game?

The Rays need a big performance from Alex Cobb today. He was pitching great until the 6th inning of his last start, and he needs to find a way to get back to that. The top of the lineup has to step up, with Evan Longoria being the key to the entire time, and look for players like Johnson, Roberts, and Rodriguez to be especially aggressive on the basepaths if they can get on as the Rays do whatever they can to manufacture runs. This is only a two-day thing with Zobrist being gone. But with the season looking bad enough already, the Rays need to find a way to stay afloat and win games, and Zobrist’s absence for a couple days only makes it tougher.

In Hellickson’s last three starts, he has gone 1-1 with a 3.15 ERA in 20 innings pitched. Most impressively, he has struck out 23 batters, walked just 6, and allowed only 2 home runs. Those numbers amount to a 10.4 K/9, a 2.7 BB/9, a 0.9 HR/9, and a 3.10 FIP. Why does this matter? Hellickson has been pitching well of late, but could it just be a fluke? That might be the case, but the evidence suggests otherwise. In his last three starts, Hellickson has struck out 23 of the 73 batters he has faced, 31.5%. The probability of him doing that if his true strikeout rate should have been his career mark of 16.8% is just .00039, or 2577 to 1 odds. Hellickson’s breakthrough looks real, and suddenly he’s a different pitcher and quite possibly a better one.

The difference isn’t just statistical but also lies in Hellickson’s pitch usage, specifically for his curveball. As we’ve talked about before, Hellickson has always had two plus pitches in his fastball and changeup, but now his curveball has come together to give hitters three quality pitches to contend with. Hellickson has used his curveball 20% of the time in 2013 per Brooks Baseball compared to just 12% of his pitches in 2012 as he has shown more confidence in it and used it to get outstanding results. Hitters are hitting just .136 off of Hellickson’s curveball this season, the best of any of his pitches and far better than his .242 mark he has managed on it for his career.

With curveball giving hitters yet another great pitch to think about, Hellickson is fooling hitters more than ever and finding a way to notch more strikeouts and go deeper into games. There’s a reason that the Rays were confident giving Hellickson their number two starter job to begin the season, and Hellickson is poised to continue his development as a pitcher and give the Rays yet another dominant young pitcher at the top of their rotation. Opposing the Rays has never been fun for hitters–but with Hellickson joining with David Price and Matt Moore, expect batters to be miserable more than ever.

This isn’t a Scott Kazmir situation where he departed only after following apart. This isn’t even a Carl Crawford situation where he became a free agent and the Rays simply couldn’t afford him. The Rays had Shields under contract for two more years and traded him away. What did they receive? A top outfield prospect in Wil Myers who has a chance to team with Evan Longoria and Ben Zobrist to give them the strongest offense they have ever had for years to come. But was it worth it? It isn’t just the dollars and cents. It isn’t just the performance Shields gave the Rays and could continue to give. Isn’t it humiliating as a Rays fan to know that the most reliable pitcher you have ever seen is wearing another uniform not because he lost effectiveness, not out of necessity, but because the Rays made a choice? Is this going to haunt the Rays forever?

Tom Seaver put the New York Mets on the map, playing a major role in turning them from a laughingstock throughout baseball to the champions of baseball in 1969 and a perennial contender for years thereafter, including a return to the World Series in 1973. James Shields is no Tom Seaver, but the role he’s playing is exactly the same. Seaver went 5-3 with a 2.28 ERA in 11 starts against the Mets as a member of the Cincinnati Reds and tossed a no-hitter in a Reds uniform in 1978, his first full season in Cincinnati. The Mets franchise would not get a no-hitter until Johan Santana in 2012. It was in Seaver’s final season as a professional in 1986, though, the Mets won the World Series again, with Seaver closing out his career as a member of the AL champion Red Sox. Just because Seaver was such an integral part of the Mets’ past didn’t mean he had to be a part of their future and didn’t mean they could not overcome his loss. And the Mets only traded Seaver because they were losing, going just 64-98 in 1977, and they wouldn’t finish above .500 again until 1984. That isn’t the case with this Rays team. Shields is gone, but the Rays’ pitching staff is as talented as ever and their team has a chance to make the postseason and do damage once they get there. The only thing left is the psychological hurdle of losing Shields, of knowing that when there’s a big game, there won’t be Big Game James taking the mound. Can they overcome that? It’s going to be an undergoing process, but their matchup with Shields tonight gives them a chance to get the ball rolling and  build confidence even with their security blanket gone. Can the Rays demonstrate that as crucial that Shields was to their success, they can reach even loftier heights without him?