Pierzynski enjoyed a big season in his walk-year in 2012, posting a .278/.326/.501 line (118 OPS+) with 27 home runs, easily his career-high in 12 full major league seasons. The problem for Pierzynski is that teams know that giving a long-term contract to a catcher in his mid-30′s is not a good proposition. Instead, Pierzynski will be looking for a one- or two-year deal. A one-year deal may even be more likely because teams know that Pierzynski, who managed just 30 home runs combined from 2009 to 2011, is unlikely to repeat his unlikely power performance. Pierzynski is a career .284/.329/.429 hitter (96 OPS+) with an average of 27 doubles and 13 home runs per season, and teams will expect him to regress towards that next season. Pierzynski has also never been a great defensive catcher, managing just a 28% career caught stealing percentage including a career-low 25% in 2012. Pierzynski has ranged between 25% and 33% in terms of CS rate his entire career. Pierzynski also allowed 8 passed balls in 2012, his most since 2007. He has averaged 6.5 per season in his career including 5.4 per season since 2008, a rate of one every 23.3 games compared to the league average of one every 13.3 games, so he is well above-average in that regard.

In terms of starting catcher and backup catcher pairings, Pierzynski and Jose Molina could be perfect. Pierzynski is a left-handed hitter while Molina is a right-handed hitter, with both being significantly better over the course of their careers against pitchers of the opposite side. Pierzynski doesn’t throw out basestealers at a great rate while Molina does but Pierzynski is much better than Molina in terms of blocking balls in the dirt. Pierzynski and Molina complement each other perfectly, and of course the most important factor is that signing Pierzynski would allow the Rays to slide Jose Molina back into the backup catcher position where he’s most comfortable after he appeared in a career-high 102 games in 2012. The one-year experiment with Molina as a starting catcher did not go so well. Pierzynski is not the Rays’ ideal starting catcher, but he’s a nice hitter for a catcher and a solid defender, and he would represent a significant upgrade for the Rays at the catcher position in 2013.

At the end of the day, a union between Pierzynski and the Rays comes down to the number of years and the annual value in a possible contract. Pierzynski made 6 million dollars in 2012 in the second year of a 2-year, 8 million dollar contract. The Rays could offer Pierzynski essentially the same contract, 2-years and 8 million dollars, although likely 4 million dollars each year instead of 2 million then 6 million, and of course we know that the Rays would add a team option at the end like they do so often. Alternatively, they could offer him a 1-year commitment worth the same 6 million dollars in 2012, although after Luke Scott and Carlos Pena did not work out for them in 2012, they would prefer to avoid that. It’s kind of ironic for Pierzynski that his career-best power performance in his walk season won’t really add to his contract value over the next two years because of his age and position, but that could work out perfectly for the Rays.

Pierzynski has played for the White Sox for a long time now and they assuredly have more money to spend than the Rays. The most likely scenario this offseason is that the Rays offer Pierzynski something like a 2-year, 8 million dollar contract and then the White Sox match the Rays, keeping Pierzynski in Chicago for two more years. Even then, though, that could work out fine for the Rays as they could be interested in White Sox catchers Tyler Flowers (who would take over as the starter for the White Sox should Pierzynski leave) and Josh Phegley, and another multi-year pact to Pierzynski could finally prompt the White Sox to trade one of them. Don’t be surprised if a former White Sox catcher plays for the Rays in 2013- but the chances of Pierzynski being that player are not so high.

The White Sox have three upper-level catchers that the Rays could be interested in: A.J. Pierzynski and Tyler Flowers at the big league level, and Josh Phegley at Triple-A. Pierzynski, 35, has 11 full big league seasons under has belt but has not really showed signs of slowing down. In 2011, he posted a .287/.323/.405 line with 29 doubles, 8 homers, and 48 RBI. Defensively, he was halfway-decent, throwing out baserunners at a 20% clip but making just 4 errors and allowing just 4 passed balls. Thus far in 2012, Pierzynski has posted a .278/.313/.500 line with 3 doubles, 5 homers, and 18 RBI. Pierzynski is a catcher who hits for average with a little pop and who is extremely difficult to strike out (just 33 strikeouts in 2011 after 39 in 2010), but his plate discipline and defense aren’t so great.

Pierzynski has been through it all and has not yet shown signs of slowing down. (Credit: Jason O. Watson-US PRESSWIRE)

Flowers, 26, was supposed to be the White Sox’ catcher of the future but that has never materialized. From 2009-2011 at Triple-A, 196 games, Flowers posted a .244/.358/.456 line with 40 doubles, 33 homers, and 98 RBI, striking out 237 times although walking 104. Flowers has nice power for a catcher with nice plate discipline but strikes out a ton (29.6% of his plate appearances at Triple-A). Flowers has never gotten an extended chance in the major leagues, posting a .188/.310/.357 line with 6 doubles, 6 homers, and 17 RBI in 62 games. Defensively, Flowers defense never came up to par, and he has a 27% career CS% in the minor leagues. He has played excellently defensively to begin 2012, throwing out 5 for 5 runners attempting to steal and has not allowed a single error or passed ball. Flowers’ major flaw is his propensity for striking out, but he has nice overall ability and is still waiting for a prolonged chance in the big leagues.

Phegley, 24, was a supplemental first round pick by the White Sox in 2009 but hasn’t exactly lived up to expectations. In 2011 between Double-A and Triple-A, Phegley posted a .242/.298/.368 line with 25 doubles, 9 homers, and 56 RBI. Phegley has played well to begin 2012, posting a .352/.388/.484 line with 7 doubles, 1 homer, 12 RBI in 23 games. Defensively, Phegley has a rocket for an arm and has posted a 48% CS% in 200 minor league games at catcher. However, he needs a ton of work at blocking balls as he allowed a ghastly 20 passed balls in 2011 and 4 already in 2012. Phegley has to improve his plate discipline (he has more line drives than ever in 2012) and he has to be fine-tuned behind the plate, but he still has nice potential if he can ever figure everything out.

So what would it take for the Rays to acquire these guys? Before we figure that out, we need to look at the organizational needs for the White Sox. Evidently, they need starting pitching prospects. The White Sox have a nice big league rotation, but Nestor Molina is their only legitimately good starting pitching prospect anywhere near the majors. The White Sox also need positional prospects as their system is unimpressive at this point, especially on the infield. With that in mind, let’s come up with some trade scenarios.

Pierzynski will be traded if the White Sox ever begin trusting Flowers. Pierzynski is in a contract year and will make 6 million dollars by the end of 2012.  At 35, he can’t be a long-term solution for anybody. But for 2012, he could provide a capable starting catcher as a rental for the rest of the season.

Chicago White Sox trade C A.J. Pierzynski and Cash to the Tampa Bay Rays in exchange for LHP Enny Romero

The White Sox finally get a high-upside starting pitching prospect in form of the fireballing Romero. The Rays would rather not trade a guy like Romero with his mid-90′s fastball and dominant curveball, especially for a rental, but he’s a low minors pitching prospect who has yet to figure things out, and dangling him could facilitate this deal. The Rays would get a starting catcher and a capable offensive player to help their lineup. The big qualifier to this trade is whether the White Sox trust Flowers enough to give him the starting catcher job, which would expedite their efforts to deal Pierzynski and would derail them if they steadfastly believe that Flowers isn’t ready.

Tyler Flowers keeps waiting for the White Sox to give him an extended opportunity. Will it ever come? (Credit: Dennis Wierzbicki-US PRESSWIRE)

Chicago White Sox trade C Tyler Flowers to the Tampa Bay Rays in exchange for SS Reid Brignac, LHP Alex Torres, and RHP Jake Thompson

In this trade, the White Sox and Rays would swap Quad-A guys: the White Sox would trade Flowers and the Rays would trade Brignac, who flopped when, unlike Flowers, he actually got an extended chance to start in 2011. To even the deal, the Rays would throw in a couple of pitchers: Alex Torres, who has electric stuff and led the Triple-A International League in strikeouts in 2011, but has struggled unremittingly with command and control issues that have relegated him to the Durham Bulls bullpen at this point in 2012. Thompson is another guy with great stuff who has struggled in 2012, but his problems are the antithesis of those of Torres: he has great control but can’t strike anybody out despite a low to mid-90′s fastball and nice secondary pitches in a changeup and slider. The major issue here was that trading Flowers would mean that either the White Sox would re-sign Pierzynski or sign a veteran catcher following the year, and that they had faith in their other catching prospects, Phegley, Mike Blanke, and Kevan Smith. That is not a safe assumption. The Rays, even though there’s a solid chance that they would lose this trade if Brignac could rediscover something and Torres and Thompson could harness a portion of their respective potentials, would love this trade because Flowers, for all his faults, is better than any catching option they have right now and could immediately start at the big league level (or at least get Chris Gimenez-esque playing time). With some smoothing out, Flowers could still be a good big league player. The problem is that the White Sox believe that as well and won’t part with Flowers easily.

Chicago White Sox trade C Josh Phegley to the Tampa Bay Rays in exchange for RHP Wilking Rodriguez and 2B Hector Guevara

In this trade, the White Sox trade from a position seemingly of strength, catcher, and get a couple of promising prospects at postions of need in return. Rodriguez, 22, has struggled to begin 2012 at High-A, but he’s regularly in the low to mid-90′s with his fastball while mixing in a nice curveball and solid change with nice command. Guevara, just 20 and on that same High-A squad, has shown great power potential for a second baseman but his power has disappeared the past couple of seasons. He’s very good at making contact, has some speed, and has shown good actions defensively, but he lacks plate discipline and the disappearance of his power in concerning. But we’ve seen that he has the potential and could be a project worth taking, especially since he’s still so young. The White Sox are trading a player that really don’t need for a couple of prospects with the potential to be good major league players in a few years.

I don’t think the Rays would acquire a rental player because that’s just not the way they operate. I doubt the White Sox would part with Flowers as well. But Phegley is an interesting player for the Rays to consider. If they think that they can fix his plate discipline and help improve his ability to block balls in the dirt he could be a solid, even a tick above-average big league catcher, something the Rays frankly lack entirely at the upper levels of their system. We see the Rays take reclamation projects on players who had shown promise in the past. Phegley could be another example of that. The Rays have to be looking at Phegley and the White Sox’ other catchers as potential trade options. And with the Rays possessing players who could fit the White Sox’ needs as well, a deal could very well happen.