Between Johnson, Matthew Joyce, Luke Scott, and James Loney, the Rays have four lefty hitters who could very well be vulnerable to left-handed pitching. Johnson actually has a better career OPS versus lefties than righties before that trend shifted the last couple seasons, and Scott had been versus lefties for his career prior to falling apart against them in 2012, so there’s reason for optimism that they’ll be OK. But Joyce and Loney have never really hit lefties and while Joyce is young and talented enough to still deserve a chance, the Rays need to have players to take some time away from them against left-handed pitching. Who are those players at this point? One of them will Ryan Roberts, and the other is going to be either Sean Rodriguez or Brandon Guyer. Roberts’ career OPS versus lefties is a nice .774 (although he was bizarrely better against righties in 2012), and he looks like he should be a good option. Rodriguez’s career OPS against lefties is .751, and that’s just as impressive as Roberts when adjusting for ballpark (Roberts played a lot his games in the hitter-friendly Chase Field). However, he has slowly but surely fallen off a cliff offensively the last three years, declining in batting average, OBP, slugging percentage, OPS, home runs, and stolen bases each season, and even though he hit lefties well in 2010 and 2011, he dropped off to just a .665 OPS against them in 2012. Rodriguez is a major question mark and do the Rays really want him seeing a lot of time against left-handed pitching? Guyer, meanwhile, is completely unproven, seeing just cups of coffee with the Rays the last two seasons, and although he’s been excellent at Triple-A, managing a .309/.381/.510 line with 17 home runs and 18 stolen bases in 540 plate appearances and mashing to a .339/.421/.554 line against lefties, he’s coming off shoulder surgery and it has yet to be seen what he can give the Rays at this point. Essentially the Rays have Roberts and then one of two question marks in line for playing time against left-handed pitching. Is that really going to be good enough? Should the Rays heavily consider acquiring a big right-handed bat to really solidify their lineup versus lefties?

One big right-handed bat that is a possible trade candidate is the Chicago Cubs’ Alfonso Soriano. Soriano has been a player we’ve already discussed multiple times as a player the Rays could acquire Soriano is 37 years old, but could it finally happen now? Soriano is coming off a strong season in 2012, posting a a .262/.322/.499 line (121 OPS+) with 33 doubles, 32 homers, 108 RBI, and 6 of 8 stolen bases in 151 games and 615 plate appearances, and the Cubs don’t really need them as they’re in a rebuilding phase and they don’t necessarily need him because they’re in a rebuilding phase and might as well give top prospect Brett Jackson a chance for major league playing time. There are two big catches, though: Soriano has two years and $36MM left on his contract with the Cubs, and he also has a full no-trade clause. However, the Cubs would be willing to pick up as much as $26MM of the $36MM Soriano is owed, and Soriano is reportedly willing to accept trades to 6 or 7 teams, and one of those teams could be the Rays. The Cubs might want a pretty decent prospect from the Rays in exchange for picking up the money left on his contract, say a pitcher like Alex Colome who’s talented but also seems likely to end up in the bullpen, but if the Rays truly believe Soriano can make a significant impact on their team, that likely won’t be a problem, as they showed when they traded infield prospect Derek Dietrich for Yunel Escobar earlier this offseason. But how would Soriano fit in for the Rays at this point?

Soriano has played primarily left field the past seven seasons, and while his defense has been occasionally maligned, it has overall been pretty good. In 7680.2 career innings in left field, Soriano has a 12.4 career UZR/150 and even an 11.8 mark in 2012. Baseball Prospectus has given Soriano a 6.9 FRAA since he moved to left field in 2006, considering him much closer to average but still a good defender overall. If the Rays put Soriano in left field, what he would give them at the plate would easily outweigh any defensive concerns they may have. But wait a second- the Rays don’t have left field open for everyday play! At this point, the Rays have nine players that they know will be starting for them in most of their games: Evan Longoria, Ben Zobrist, Desmond Jennings, Matthew Joyce, Yunel Escobar, Luke Scott, Kelly Johnson, Jose Molina, and James Loney. Molina will be at catcher, Loney will be at first base, Escobar will be at shortstop, and Jennings will be in centerfield. That leaves Zobrist, Johnson, and Joyce, with either Zobrist at second base, Johnson in left field, and Joyce in right field or Johnson at second base, Zobrist in right field, and Joyce in left field. Where in the world would Soriano fit in there? Against left-handed pitching, Soriano and Roberts could replace two of Loney, Scott, Johnson, and Joyce (positions don’t matter quite as much because of the versatility of Zobrist and Johnson). But what about against right-handed pitching? Soriano is a better hitter than say Loney and Johnson, but if the Rays were going to trade for Soriano, why did they sign them? Unless the Rays reverse course and get rid of Loney, move Scott to first base, and have Soriano, Johnson, and Joyce all seeing time between the corner outfield spots and DH, the Rays don’t have room for Soriano.Soriano was a fit for the Rays most of the offseason. But at this point, they simply don’t have room and them trading for Soriano looks exceedingly unlikely.

Alfonso Soriano may still end up as a Tampa Bay Ray by the end of 2013. If one of their starting players doesn’t produce up to par and the Rays don’t believe Wil Myers is ready, that might be enough for them to execute a trade for Soriano. However, that’s something more likely to happen around the trade deadline and it’s too early to think about anything like that. The bottom line is that for better or worse, the Rays have their lineup locked in for at least the early part of the season, and while the acquisition of a big right-handed bat seems like something that would help the Rays, it’s now happening right now. The Rays have made their choices this offseason, and acquiring a player like Soriano was not the way they decided to go.

We’ve talked about Soriano for the Rays quite a bit over the past year, talking about the possibility of the Rays trading him in October and way back in January. But now, a deal could finally be on the verge of materializing. Jon Heyman of CBS Sports tweeted recently that the Cubs are willing to pay 26 million dollars of the 36 million dollars that Soriano is owed over the next two years, meaning that the team that acquires Soriano would be on the hook for 2 years and 10 million dollars. Especially after they cleared 13.05 million dollars for 2013 by trading James Shields and Wade Davis, that is right within the Rays’ price range. But money obviously isn’t everything here. Would Soriano be a good fit with the Rays over the next two years?

Soriano ranks third in baseball history with four 30-30 seasons, trailing just the father-son combo of Barry Bonds and Bobby Bonds. Soriano, who will turn 37 in January, is no longer that player- but he’s still productive. In 2012, Soriano posted a .262/.322/.499 line (121 OPS+) with 33 doubles, 32 homers, 108 RBI, and 6 of 8 stolen bases in 151 games and 615 plate appearances. It’s an established fact that Soriano doesn’t have very good plate discipline, managing just a 153-44 strikeout to walk ratio in 2012 and 1576-454 for his career, and his speed is gone as he hasn’t stolen even double-digit bases since 2008, but he’s still a productive player, managing a .255/.312/.489 line (113 OPS+) over the last three years with an average of 33 doubles, 27 homers, and 92 RBI per season. Soriano used to be a far better player than B.J. Upton was for the Rays, but even at this point in his career he can seamlessly replace at least the power portion of what Upton gave the Rays during his time in Tampa Bay. The Rays would love to acquire Soriano and place him in the middle of their lineup.

A potential major issue is that Soriano has said before that he does not want to be a regular DH. Should that dissuade the Rays from acquiring him? Probably not. At least until Wil Myers makes the major leagues, the Rays have playing time available in the outfield. The Rays have two guaranteed outfielders for 2013: Desmond Jennings and Matthew Joyce. After that, you have Ben Zobrist, Sam Fuld, and Brandon Guyer. Zobrist is the most interesting case because he can play all over the field. If Soriano was fine being DH, the Rays would just put him there on a regular basis, giving him an occasional start in left field and maybe first base if he was willing to learn to play the position. But if Soriano insists on playing the outfield on a semi-regular basis, the Rays could accommodate him as well. Against left-handed pitching, they could field an outfield of Soriano, Jennings, and Joyce from left to right, put Ryan Roberts at second base and Ben Zobrist at first base, and play either Brandon Guyer or Sean Rodriguez at DH. That actually makes some amount of sense considering that James Loney has been a disaster against left-handed pitching over the past two years. Essentially Soriano would be the Rays’ DH against right-handed pitching and take Loney out of the lineup versus lefties. The Rays are also likely to play Evan Longoria more at DH next season as they try to keep him healthy, and when that happens, Soriano can play left field, Roberts can play third base, and Zobrist can play second base. Thanks to the versatility of Zobrist and Roberts, the Rays could conceivably get Soriano at least 50 or 60 games in the field without any real problem.

But do the Rays really want Soriano playing the field? We all remember Soriano as a horrific second baseman for the Yankees back in the day- but him playing left field is not such a bad thing. Fangraphs has him as a noticeably above-average defender in left field, totaling a 72.2 UZR including an 11.8 mark in 2012, and Baseball Prospectus has him at 6.9 fielding runs above average since 2006 including a 7.9 mark in 2012 (meaning he was slightly below-average before 2012).  At worst, Soriano is an average defender in left field and he may even be a bit above-average. There really is nothing stopping the Rays from giving Soriano a fair amount of time in the outfield.

The last reason the Rays would hesitate to acquire Soriano would be the return the Cubs are expecting for him. Heyman’s comment above that the Cubs would eat all but 10 million dollars of the remaining money on Soriano’s contract had the qualifier that they would have to get the “right prospect back.” Soriano is still a good player, and especially considering the money the Cubs would have to pay in the deal, the prospect they receive would have to pretty legitimate. Would the Rays be willing to trade say Alex Colome or Todd Glaesmann for Soriano? The Rays would rather not part with Colome after losing pitching depth in the Shields trade and their system isn’t exactly flush with power bats like Glaesmann, but both come with a good deal of risk and the Rays would be receiving a player who is a good bet to be a productive player for them over the next years. The deal could be a win for both sides as the Cubs save some money by dealing away a high-priced player on their non-contending team and receive a player with ability to make an impact for them in the future in return while the Rays would give up a good prospect but solidify their 2013 lineup and turn a position in DH that has been one of their major weaknesses for years into a potential strength.

Alfonso Soriano has been connected to the Rays for almost a year now and a deal has always seemed to make sense as the Rays need a DH and a middle-of-the-order bat and the Cubs have no need for Soriano as they continue their rebuilding process. Now we could finally see a trade happen, and the exchange could be mutually beneficial.

Soriano, 36, had arguably his best season since 2008 in 2012, posting a .262/.322/.499 line (121 OPS+) with 33 doubles, 32 homers, 108 RBI, and 153 strikeouts versus 44 walks in 151 games. It’s an established fact that Soriano doesn’t walk too often, and he’s not going to do anything to help the Rays’ strikeout tendencies. But he’s a power bat who has slammed at least 20 homers the last 11 seasons and could certainly help the Rays’ offense. Defensively in left field, how good Soriano is defensively varies wildly depending on who you ask. Since Soriano first started playing left field in 2006, Baseball-Reference has him at -4.9 wins above replacement defensively. Fangraphs has him as an extremely above-average defender, totaling a 72.2 UZR including an 11.8 mark in 2012. Baseball Prospectus has him at 6.9 fielding runs above average since 2006 including a 7.9 mark in 2012, his highest since 2007. But does that even matter? Wouldn’t the Rays use Soriano primarily at DH? The only reason it does is that Soriano has stated that he is reluctant to be a regular DH and might not waive his no-trade clause if a team wanted to use him as such. If Soriano came to the Rays, that would not be a problem as they could put him in left field with Desmond Jennings in centerfield on at least a part-time basis and possibly regularly depending on how the rest of the Rays’ offseason turns out.

The other factor with Soriano is that he has two years and 36 million dollars left on his contract. The Rays would be willing to pay very little of that, but luckily the Cubs might put in as much as 28-30 million dollars as part of a Soriano trade. However, in exchange for doing that they will want a real prospect in return. Would the Rays be willing to trade a player like say Alex Colome or Enny Romero along with a couple of lesser-touted prospects in exchange for Soriano? I would say yes. Soriano is a middle-of-the-lineup presence and would seamlessly replace B.J. Upton‘s power, and while Colome and Romero are nice prospects, there is plenty of risk envolved with them (more so with Romero) and they would be trading a possible contributor in what is already a position of strength to plug up a big major league hole. Will this trade actually materialize? Only time will tell. But it makes sense for the Rays at this point and they will have to consider pulling the trigger.