Expecting Myers to instantly come up and become an AL MVP frontrunner like Trout is delusions of grandeur. Even expecting him to immediately play as good as Harper is a risky proposition- even Trout hit just .220 in his first exposure to the major leagues in 2011, showing that even players who have everything it takes to become major league superstars can struggle mightily early on. But while we can’t expect too much from Myers too soon, he compares very favorably with Trout and Harper from the scope of their numbers in their last full minor league season before their rookie year.

Looking at those stats, three things immediately stand out: Myers showed substantially more power than Trout and Harper, his speed is much less of a factor, and most importantly, he struck out at alarming rate, especially when trying to compare him to the impossible standard of Trout and Harper. Myers cutting down on the strikeouts is going to be the key for him moving forward, and the Rays likely won’t call him up until they believe the problem is fixed. Myers’ speed isn’t a big part of his game, and even his biggest supporters will admit that he can’t be a 5-tool player like Trout and Harper. But given that Myers has so much more power, who’s to say that he can’t be just about as good of an all-around player and maybe even put it all together immediately? Well, the key difference between Myers and Trout and Harper is that Myers just turned 22 and still hasn’t debuted in the major leagues- Trout is just 21 and is coming off an unbelievable season, and Harper is just 20 even after his great rookie year. It would be impressive for a player of any age to put up Myers’ numbers at Triple-A, but when Trout and Harper tore up the minor leagues at just 19 and 18 years old respectively, that was something really special. Wil Myers is a really good player and a potential superstar right fielder, but he’s no transcendent talent.

One other thing to note, though, is that the highest level Trout and Harper reached in their final full minor league season was Double-A (Harper spent most of the season at Low-A). Myers put his numbers up primarily at Triple-A, and that gives him a leg up. In terms of his future, Myers’ age certainly means his upside is a great deal lower than Trout and Harper. But at the same time, his greater experience gives him the ability to be more comfortable in the major leagues as soon as he arrives and deliver a really good rookie season. He’s not going to be competing for the AL MVP award anytime soon. However, a season like Harper’s rookie year minus the speed, say a .275/.345/.475 line with 20 home runs, is not something out of the realm of possibility for Myers, and the chances of it happening may even be more likely than it was for Harper. Myers is never going to be that guy who could hit .330 with 35 home runs, 60 stolen bases, and ridiculous defense like Trout might someday (he came awfully close his rookie year) and he’s not going to hit .320 with 50 home runs and 25 stolen bases like Harper has a chance to do. However, he has the ability to be a really good player and soon, and even if Trout and Harper will almost certainly outperform him in the long-term, Myers has the ability to put up rookie numbers within their stratosphere. Will it happen? Myers has plenty more risk than Harper and Trout did and there are certainly no guarantees with him. Nevertheless, though, the chances of him immediately blossoming into one of the top outfielders in baseball from his first day in the major leagues could be much higher than we think.

The obvious thing here is that Rays rookie left-hander Matt Moore did not receive a single vote for Rookie of the Year, something we’ll talk more about later today. But that’s just the start. Trout won the Rookie of the Year award unanimously for the first time since Evan Longoria in 2008. Trout may have matched Longoria’s feat, but it was Harper who had a similar season to Longoria’s rookie year. Harper posted a .270/.340/477 line with 26 doubles, 9 triples, 22 homers, 59 RBI, and 120 strikeouts versus 56 walks, not all that far off from Longoria’s .272/.343/.531 linee with 31 doubles, 27 homers, 85 RBI, and 122 strikeouts against 46 walks. Amazingly, Harper is three years younger than Longoria was in his rookie season, turning 20 just a few weeks ago. Trout himself is only 21. Baseball fans are going to be in for a treat watching those two develop into the faces of the game over the next few years, a process that has already firmly begun.

The connections continue with the fact that Harper was coached by ex-Rays bonus baby Matt White in USA Baseball, and then we get to Miley, who the Rays actually selected in the 20th round of the 2005 draft but he couldn’t sign. Miley delivered a Rays-worthy season for the Diamondbacks in 2012, going 16-11 with a 3.33 ERA with 144 strikeouts against just 37 walks in 194.2 innings pitched.

Starting pitchers are used to heading to the mound every fifth day. The same is not true of position players. Richie Shaffer has had a hard time playing just every fourth day for the Phoenix Desert Dogs in the Arizona Fall League as a member of their taxi squad. But while his numbers have not been so pretty, Shaffer’s time in Arizona has definitely been a worthwhile experience. Bill Mitchell of Baseball America talked about the work Shaffer has done with Rays infield coordinator Jim Hoff at third and first base and the hitting work he has gotten in with Rays minor league hitting coordinator Steve Livesey. Nice to see Shaffer making progress, and talking to Mitchell, it’s clear that he has the character the Rays love as well.

“The guys who can be consistent the most are the guys that are going to advance,” Shaffer said. “Everyone out here is extremely talented and whether or not they make it or stay in the major leagues is a factor of, can they be consistent day in and day out throughout a professional season with their mentality, with their physical traits and their body.”

Just about every offseason league had a day off on Monday, but the Phoenix Desert Dogs did play, beating the Peoria Javelinas 6-4. Shaffer, playing because someone is apparently injured, went 1 for 3 starting a first base, Kirby Yates worked around 2 hits to pitch a scoreless 8th, striking out 1, and Rays top shortstop prospect Hak-Ju Lee had a rough day, going 0 for 4 as the designated hitter for Phoenix. Lee has been streaky all fall and is 1 for his last 12 to see his average dip to .257- although his on-base percentage is a solid .345.

Bill Chastain did a mailbag for the Rays’ official website and provided a few interesting insights. He began by saying that he thinks David Price will win the AL Cy Young, but he had a few nuggets later in the article. He talked about how the Rays may trade a starting pitcher but have no sense of urgency to do so, that Stephen Vogt‘s 0 for 25 start to his career was simply terrible luck and he has the ability to be a solid hitter in the big leagues- and he has improved defensively at catcher as well, how the biggest boost to the Rays’ offense next season will simply be Evan Longoria (hopefully) staying healthy the entire season, and that based on the Rays’ current roster, Sam Fuld looks like the Rays’ starting centerfielder for next season. It will be very interesting to see how the Rays decide to play out this offseason, whether they trade a starting pitcher and how they address their offensive needs.

And finally, Steven Nohlgren of the Tampa Bay Times discussed how everyone had known back in 1995 that the Rays’ stadium situation was far from ideal but at least there was a stadium to attract an expansion franchise. Maybe having the Trop did play a role in getting a major league baseball team to Tampa Bay, but it’s frustrating that from the start people knew that the stadium had its issues and now, 17 years later, those issues remain unaddressed with progress stalled on a potential new stadium for the Rays.

Both Upton and Harper were started at the Low-A level of the minor leagues before skipping over High-A to finish the year at Double-A. For Upton that was in 2003 while for Harper that was in 2011. Both hit .297 overall that season, and just .002 separates Upton’s .390 OBP from Harper’s .392.

The following year, Upton spent time at Double-A again (29 games) before going up to Triple-A while Harper went straight up to Triple-A. Upton played well in 69 Triple-A games, posting a .311/.411/.519 line with 17 doubles, 12 homers, 36 RBI, 17 of 22 stolen bases, 72 strikeouts, and 42 walks. Harper struggled at least by his standards in his first taste of Triple-A, posting a .250/.333/.375 line in 20 games with 4 doubles, 1 homer, 3 RBI, and 14 strikeouts compared to 9 walks. Both seemed like they needed more seasoning- Upton simply because he hadn’t played a full season at Triple-A, and Harper not only because of his inexperience, but also his struggles. Nevertheless, both were called up to the major leagues. Upton played 45 games while Harper, entering the Rays series, has played 44. Their numbers could not be more different.

Upton posted a .258/.324/.409 line with 8 doubles, 4 homers, 12 RBI, 4 of 5 stolen bases, and 46 strikeouts against 15 walks. Harper has posted a .294/.370/.524 line with 10 doubles, 4 triples, 7 homers, 19 RBI, 4 of 7 steals, and 36 strikeouts against 20 walks. Upton’s OPS+, his on-base plus slugging compared to the league average adjusted to ballpark, was 93, meaning that he was 7% below league average. Harper’s is 141, 41% above league average.

The Rays sent Upton back to Triple-A and he would spend all of 2005 there, posting a .303/.392/.490 line with 36 doubles, 6 triples, 18 homers, 74 RBI, 44 of 57 steals, and 127 strikeouts to 78 walks. After posting a .269/.374/.394 line at Triple-A in 2006, Upton resurfaced in the big leagues and it did not go well as he managed just a .246/.302/.391 line in 50 games. The next season in 2007, Upton spent his first full season in the big leagues and finally played up to the level the Rays expected, posting a .300/.386/.508 line with 25 doubles, 25 homers, 82 RBI, and 22 of 30 in stolen bases. His OPS+ was 136. But since then, Upton has managed just a .250/.336/.407 line, a 103 OPS+.

B.J. Upton was undoubtedly the best player on the board entering the 2002 MLB Draft, but he fell to the D-Rays at second overall because the Pirates made a money-saving pick, selecting right-hander Bryan Bullington. Everyone knew that Bryce Harper was going first overall to the Nationals in 2010. The Rays hoped that Upton could be the type of talent that could invigorate their ballclub into contention. In 2008, the Rays did make the playoffs, and after an inconsistent 2008 season, Upton was incredible in the postseason, posting a .288/.333/.652 line with 7 homers, 16 RBI, and 6 steals without getting caught in 16 games. Since then, Upton’s OPS+ has been 101, just 1% above league average. He has been just about a league average player, nothing more. Time has run out for Upton with the Rays. He still has not put everything together, and he is a free agent following the season. The Rays will have to move on.

With Harper in the middle of the lineup, the Nationals have surged to first place in the NL East. At 38-26 they’re 4 games ahead of the New York Mets. With Harper teaming with Stephen Strasburg and the rest of the Nationals’ young core, the sky is the limit for this Nationals team both this season and moving forward.