Triple-A International League: Durham Bulls 3, Norfolk Tides (BAL) 2

From the start of this one, it seemed like something special was in the air for Chris Archer. Archer slowly but surely wore down as his pitch count got up, but nevertheless he delivered a great outing reminding Rays fans just how talented he is even if his next big league chance will have to wait. Archer allowed a flyball to center off the bat of Xavier Avery, but he breezed by the next five hitters, retiring three via the strikeout and the other two on the ground. His command began to depart in the 3rd inning as he got two flyouts sandwiched around a strikeout, but after a strikeout and two groundouts in the 4th, Archer had retired 12 in a row to begin the game. Archer’s perfect game bid ended when he walked L.J. Hoes with 2 outs in the 5th, but that was only the start. Brandon Wood began the 6th inning with a solo home run, and not only was the no-hit bid over but now the score was 2-1 in the game. But even as he quickly began to tire out, Archer found a way to get out of the inning, working his way around a pair of hits to keep the Tides from drawing any closer. Archer had an excellent outing, going 6 innings allowing 1 run on 3 hits, striking out 6 while walking 1. He was extremely efficient, throwing just 81 pitches, 52 strikes, and it’s a little alarming that even with his pitch count so low he still wore down. However, Archer showed dominance at the beginning of his outing and heart at the end, and once he builds his arm strength back up, the Rays may have no choice but to find him a spot on their big league roster.

Of more immediate big league concern for the Rays could be outfielders Wil Myers and Brandon Guyer after Matt Joyce left Tuesday’s Rays game with hamstring tightness. But if anyone is getting called up, it’s unlikely to be either of them. Myers went 0 for 4 with a walk in this one while Guyer went 0 for 3 with a walk. Neither has great numbers on the season, with Myers putting up a .250/.350/.382 line while Guyer’s line is at .242/.338/.406, although Guyer does have a .270/.372/.432 line in his last 10 games. Guyer has an obvious edge for a potential call-up because he’s on the 40-man roster, but if the Rays were going to call up their best available outfielder, it would probably be Jason Bourgeois, who went 2 for 3 with a double, walk, a stolen base, and 2 runs scored in this one and is hitting to a .312/.362/.428 line with 10 stolen bases and 30 RBI in 35 games. Rich Thompson, Vince Belnome, and Mike Fontenot also had multi-hit games in this one for Durham, but the most impressive performance of the game might have been Craig Albernaz, who did a great job catching Archer, went 1 for 4 at the plate, and then did an incredible job picking a runner of 2nd base to prevent a tough 7th inning from getting worse for Cory Wade. Archer’s performance was certainly the take-away from this one, but great to see several members of the Bulls offense playing well with the possibility of a big league call-up in play for someone should Joyce hit the DL.

Double-A Southern League: Huntsville Stars (MIL) 11, Montgomery Biscuits 7

Biscuits pitching got destroyed in this one, but the offense had a great game, led by Cameron Seitzer, who is suddenly red-hot again. Victor Mateo kept the Stars off the board in the bottom of the 3rd–that would be the only inning they wouldn’t score the rest of the game other than the bottom of the 9th, which did not happen. Mateo allowed 5 runs, 4 earned, on 7 hits in 5 innings before Neil Schenk and Andrew Bellatti allowed a run each in their innings of work. Then Braulio Lara allowed 4 runs in the 8th, including the second home run of the game by Jason Rodgers, a 3-run shot. Let’s head to the offense now, which was much more positive. Seitzer came up big, going 3 for 4 with 2 doubles, a walk, and an RBI and a run scored. He was slumping for a while after his incredible start to the season, but now he’s 9 for his last 22 (.409) and he may be on his way to another hot streak. Kevin Kiermaier went 1 for 3 with 2 walks, a stolen base, and 3 runs scored while Shawn O’Malley went 1 for 3 with a stolen base, an RBI, and a run scored as the Biscuits’ lineup did great but it wasn’t nearly enough.

High-A Florida State League Game 1: Charlotte Stone Crabs 4, Clearwater Threshers (PHI) 2 (7 innings)

The Stone Crabs played a doubleheader on Tuesday to make up for a Monday rainout, and if they were going to have to play two, they could not have picked a better rotation spot to be in line to start. Jesse Hahn and Jake Floethe have been splitting starts for Charlotte all season, and the Stone Crabs were able to just start Hahn in Game 1 and Floethe in Game 2 to get through this doubleheader without any problem. In this game, Hahn was absolutely dominant. Going 4 innings for the second straight outing as the Stone Crabs are beginning to take the training wheels off of him, Hahn was a little more hittable than usual, allowing 4 hits, but he struck out 4 and recorded 7 of his other 8 outs on the ground. The other out came on a Drew Vettleson outfield assist. In 9 starts, Hahn has a 0.96 ERA, striking out 29 while walking just 5 and managing a 2.80 groundout to airout ratio in 28 innings pitched. Eliazer Suero allowed a pair of runs to cross in the 6th, but Nate Garcia struck out 2 in a perfect 9th to nail down the save. Garcia’s ERA on the season is an ugly 6.05, but he has tossed perfect ball in his last two appearances, shutout ball in his last three, and has a 9-1 strikeout to walk ratio in his last five. In terms of the run support, Hector Guevara went 2 for 3 with a double, a stolen base, 2 RBI, and a run scored, and Willie Argo went 1 for 3 with a 2-run double. Vettleson also capped his strong defensive game by going 1 for 3 with a double and a run scored. Vettleson started off the year incredibly slowly, but he has a .361/.452/.583 line in his last 40 plate appearances as he is really hitting his stride.

Game 2: Stone Crabs 3, Threshers 1

Floethe wasn’t nearly as dominant as Floethe, but he combined with Chris Kirsch to hold Clearwater to just 1 run in 7 innings as the Stone Crabs swept the doubleheader. Floethe went 4.2 innings allowing 1 run on 3 hits, striking out 3 while walking 4. Flothe’s control certainly was not at its best, but he was still able to do a nice job forcing weak contact on the ground, managing a 7-2 groundout to flyout ratio to help him pitch as well as he did. Tossing the game’s final 2.1 innings was Kirsch, who made his season debut for Charlotte after debuting as a professional with Advanced Rookie Princeton last year and beginning this season in extended spring training. Kirsch went 2.1 innings allowing just 1 hit, striking out 1 while walking 1, as he acquainted himself quite well to full-season ball despite skipping the Low-A level. With a fastball touching 94 MPH and an assortment of secondary pitches, Kirsch has the ability to be an impressive pitcher, and hopefully this outing can spur him to a strong season. On the offensive side, Kes Carter delivered a 2-out, 3-run triple in the 2nd inning to account for all three of the Stone Crabs’ runs and provide Charlotte with all the runs they would need thanks to the strong performances of Floethe and Kirsch.

One move is obvious: Brandon Gomes is going to be sent back down to Triple-A. Gomes has an outstanding 15-2 strikeout to walk ratio in 11.1 innings pitched, but his ERA is just 5.56 as he has allowed 1.6 home runs per 9 innings. An obvious candidate to replace Gomes is Josh Lueke, who has a 1.06 ERA, a 13.8 K/9, a 2.6 BB/9, and a 0.5 HR/9 in 13 appearances and 17 IP. Gomes dominated similarly at Triple-A last season, managing an 11.9 K/9 and a 2.3 BB/9, but Lueke has a higher chance of finding long-term success in the major leagues. Lueke’s arsenal is much better than Gomes’, with his fastball touching the mid-90′s to go along with a great splitter and solid curveball, and at the very least he’s fresh blood to give the bullpen a change of pace. Lueke is already on the 40-man roster, so that’s a move that could be happening very soon.

A tougher decision for the Rays will be whether to keep lefty Cesar Ramos on their major league roster because Ramos is out of options. But he has gotten shelled so far this season, managing just a 6.14 ERA and a 3-3 strikeout to walk ratio in 11 IP and 7.1 innings pitched. Lefties are actually hitting .357 against him on the young season and he’s just showing any positive signs. Ramos looked dominant in the major leagues for the Rays last season, but it was just 17 appearances and he managed just a 3.77 ERA, a 6.7 K/9, a 2.3 BB/9, and a 1.5 HR/9 in 62 innings at Triple-A. Ramos is looking more like the pitcher who managed just a 3.92 ERA, a 6.4 K/9, and a 5.2 BB/9 in 59 appearances for the Rays in 2011, and that won’t cut it. Joe Maddon doesn’t trust him anymore, bringing him into a game just once so far in May, and it’s worth it exposing him to waivers, especially since there’s a decent chance he’ll pass through them and remain in the organization.

Replacing Ramos would be fellow lefty Alex Torres, who has been unhittable as a starting pitcher so far in 2013 at Triple-A Durham, going 2-1 with a 2.08 ERA, an 11.8 K/9, a 3.1 BB/9, and a 0.8 HR/9 in 5 starts and 26 IP. Torres has some potential as a starting pitcher, but Chris Archer, Jake Odorizzi, and maybe even Alex Colome are ahead of him on the Rays’ depth chart, it’s worth utilizing his electric arm in a bullpen role. Torres struggled mightily in 2012 after his control completely deserted him, but he has come all the way back between the end of last season, Winter Ball, spring training, and the start to this year. Torres has the ability to be an dominating bullpen arm and maybe even turn into a lefty version of what Wade Davis gave the Rays last season with a chance to be a late-inning pitcher down the road. Torres features a low-90′s fastball that could hit the mid-90′s out of the bullpen with overbearing movement, and he pairs it with a nasty slider and good changeup. Torres could emerge as an impact pitcher immediately for the Rays out of the bullpen, and the Rays will have to strongly consider calling him up soon.

A third shift that wouldn’t be too crazy for the Rays would be at least attempting to use Jamey Wright in higher-leverage roles. Wright has been outstanding so far this season, managing a 1.29 ERA, a 7.7 K/9, a 2.6 BB/9, and a 50% groundball rate in 15 appearances and 14 IP, but his aLI has been just 0.6, meaning that his appearances have featured 40% less pressure than the average relievers. Wright career aLI is 1.1, 10% above average, and he has pitched so well while so many others have struggled, so why not at least try him in the 7th inning role in which Jake McGee has struggled so mightily in? This move seems like a no-brainer.

Those three moves by the Rays would probably help the Rays’ bullpen, but even if Wright, Torres, and Lueke were dominant, that doesn’t solve the issue of the two Rays relievers whose performance has fallen completely off a cliff this season, Jake McGee and Fernando Rodney. McGee’s ERA stands at just 9.90 as he has allowed 6.5 walks and 2.5 home runs per 9 innings, and unlike 2011 when he struggled in April and was sent down, the Rays can’t send him to the minor leagues because he is out of options. The easy solution is to use him in more low-leverage situation to try to get him back on track, but could the Rays do something more extreme? Something that could be an option might be placing McGee on the disabled list if he feels the slightest pinch in his elbow, shoulder, or anywhere else and use that as an excuse to sort him out at Triple-A. Fifteen days is a long time to lose a player who was so integral to the Rays’ success last season, but if makes McGee better in the long run, it was certainly be worth it. If that happens, an option for a temporary fill-in could be lefty Jeff Beliveau, who is on the 40-man roster and has struck out 12 while walking just 3 in 5.1 innings for Durham since being acquired from the Rangers. Ironically, Beliveau is the exact opposite of McGee, featuring a mediocre fastball but two impressive secondary pitches in his curveball and changeup.

With a 5.09 ERA, a 7.6 BB/9, and a 1.7 HR/9 so far this season, Fernando Rodney has given the Rays ample reason to remove him from their closer role, at least temporarily. Joel Peralta has had success closing games in the past, most notably in September of 2011 when Kyle Farnsworth went down, and he could be a candidate to replace Rodney until Rodney gets back on track. But after all the success Rodney had last season, are the Rays really going to make that type of move this early in the year? Moving Rodney off the closer spot may take away the mental edge he gained last season and cause his struggles to become more prevalent. In Rodney’s case, him going on the DL might be more likely than him getting demoted from the closer role, at least for the time being. Rodney may be fatigued from playing in both Winter Ball and the World Baseball Classic, and maybe taking a few weeks of rest could be exactly what he needs.

If the Rays were do place Rodney on the DL, there would be only one player Rays fans would accept as his replacement on their roster, and that’s Chris Archer. With his mid-90′s fastball that might touch the high-90′s in relief and unhittable slider, Archer has the stuff to close someday–or maybe even this season. The Rays think of him as a big part of their future as a starting pitcher, but considering their bullpen need now, would they consider calling up Archer to pitch in relief? The question is irrelevant for the moment with Archer currently out with a calf injury, although he is only expected to miss one start, and the Rays’ rotation hasn’t been spotless itself this season so having Archer ready to start is important as well. But if the Rays’ bullpen keeps struggling, maybe Archer could be a player the Rays could resort to help to turn it around.

The Rays know their bullpen is better than this and have to hope that with more time, everything will be sorted out. At the same, however, every game counts and the Rays can’t keep running their relievers in the same way when they seem to blow every lead the Rays get no matter the size. Both in terms of personnel and player usage, the Rays have to do something immediately. You’ve heard what I have to say–what do you think the Rays should do to fix their bullpen problems?

In an article for the Rays’ official site, Bernie Pleskoff, a former MLB scout, shared his insights from scouting Archer. In Pleskoff’s opinion, Archer has a chance to be an All-Star caliber pitcher someday, but before that happens, Pleskoff would like to see Archer improve in two regards.

There are times, however, when he totally loses his release point and fails to finish his pitches. That results in Archer “pulling” his arm across his body and missing his target completely. He can lose command fairly quickly, but he regains it fairly quickly as well. The net result is an increase in Archer’s pitch count and an earlier exit than he would like.

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Archer’s third pitch is an 82-mph changeup. It’s a pitch I don’t think he uses enough. With a reduction in velocity from his fastball to the changeup of roughly 12 mph, the hitter can appear to be virtually helpless. I don’t think Archer trusts that pitch. He uses it far too sparingly. It’s a pitch that will separate Archer from being an effective Minor League pitcher to being an effective Major League pitcher.

At its best, Archer’s fastball is an overbearing pitch in the mid-90′s with great sink. It’s a pitch with the ability to force swing-and-misses and plenty of weak contact on the ground as well. Most power pitchers are very flyball-prone, but that isn’t the case with Archer when he’s going well. But “going well” wasn’t something that Archer did in the major leagues in 2012. That’s illustrated quite clearly by his Pitch F/X data courtesy of Brooks Baseball. Brooks has Archer throwing a “four-seam fastball” 33% of the time and a “sinker” 31% of the time. The issue is that those are really supposed to be the exact same pitch. How do we know? Their velocity is almost exactly the same (94.65 MPH versus 94.55 MPH), and more notably, Archer didn’t favor either one depending on whether a righty or a lefty hitter was at the plate. A lot of right-handed pitchers work with a four-seamer versus same-side hitters and a sinker versus lefties so their fastball is always moving away from the batter. That wasn’t really the case with Archer as the differences in usage were very slight. He threw his four-seamer 36% of the time and his sinker 30% versus lefties and he threw the four-seamer 28% of the time and his sinker 34% of the time against righties. It looks like there may be some correlation, and maybe Archer did attempt to use his fastballs like a pitcher like Alex Cobb does, but you would expect it to be a much more pronounced difference.

What was the result of Archer’s fastball turning into what Pitch F/X identified as two different pitches? That was a reason for a long part of his inconsistency. The fastball wasn’t a very effective pitch as Archer threw it just 50% of the time and generated just 3.80% whiffs and a 1.40 to 1 groundball to flyball ratio. His sinker, on the other hand, as a strike 64% of the time, a whiff 11.18% of the time, and a 3.00 to 1 groundball to flyball ratio. When Archer’s release point is right, that’s when he can dominate hitters. But Archer has to work to make sure that’s something that happens more often.

Archer’s best and most consistent pitch is his slider, which features devastating late break that gives hitters fits. But while the difference between his fastball and his slider is enough to dominate in the minor leagues, major league hitters are good enough to lay off the slider if they see it enough. That’s what makes it so important for Archer to have a third pitch, and Archer’s changeup is a pitch with the ability to be very good. Pleskoff loved the speed difference between his fastball and changeup, and Archer was actually able to use it to get whiffs 18.18% of the time against right-handed hitters in a limited sample in 2012. But Archer used it just 8% of the time overall, and that’s not nearly enough. Having two pitches is great for a reliever, but even if those two pitches are plus-plus, a starter has to have three pitches to be consistently successful. If Archer can just use his changeup more and learn to trust it, it will help him significantly.

Chris Archer has two dominant pitches and the ability to be a topflight starter in the major leagues. Right now, though, he would profile best as a 4th or 5th starter as he works on his command and changeup. Archer would have his struggles and if he got hit too hard, his confidence could be shattered. So what the Rays are doing is making sure Archer can sharpen up his repertoire to set him up to be as successful as possible once he arrives in the major leagues, and that is the best thing for his team and his career moving forward. Could Archer be in the major leagues right now? Absolutely. But with the luxury of starting depth, the Rays are taking him nice and easy, and because of that, Archer will be the best that he can be as soon as the Rays bring him up.