Let’s look at the Pitch F/X data on Kazmir from his first start for the Indians as well as the data we have from spring training to evaluate his pure stuff. The results aren’t really what matters here–anything he did in the spring can be basically dismissed and the same can be said of his first start because no pitcher as bad as their worst game–so what we’ll do is look at the velocity, movement, and usage of his pitches and attempt to analyze whether it’s good enough for Kazmir to keep going as a major league pitcher. The data is courtesy of Brooks Baseball while the graph is of my own creation.

Your first reaction looking at that has to be that this is a different Scott Kazmir we’re looking at here. Gone is the pitcher who pumped electric mid-90′s fastballs, devastating sliders, and solid changeups by hitters on his way to well over a strikeout per inning. In his place is a pitcher with the ability to miss some bats with a still very good slider and a changeup that isn’t all that far off but who also works harder to force weak contact and keep the ball on the ground a little more frequently. Kazmir still primarily throws his low-90′s fastball with good late life but has been mixing in a two-seamer with outstanding movement towards right-handed batters and has also been resorting to his secondary pitches much more often. And between his four pitches, there is plenty of concern for Kazmir but also reasons for optimism.

Even with his Pitch F/X-described sinker, Kazmir will remain a flyball pitcher on the whole. To beat hitters on his fastball despite just average velocity, Kazmir resorts to two different types of movement: the late life on his four-seamer and the big horizontal run on his two-seamer. Neither one of Kazmir’s fastballs has all that much sink and when he’s successful he’s going to be allowing a lot of routine flyballs and pop-ups as opposed to contact on the ground. But with not as much velocity at his disposal, Kazmir has to do a better job keeping the ball down in the zone because mistakes at 91 MPH can go a long way. Another concern lies in throwing his two-seamer within the zone. Kazmir’s four-seamer has always been his bread-and-butter and the pitch he can throw for strikes the most easily, but his two-seamer is a pitch he isn’t used to throwing and its substantial movement and the result of that has been extremely inconsistent command. It doesn’t matter how well it moves if Kazmir can’t throw it for strikes. Kazmir’s four-seam fastball is not a good enough pitch for him to use it 50 or 60% of the time anymore, but when he doesn’t know where his two-seamer, he’s forced to rely on it far too often. The continued development of Kazmir’s two-seamer to take the load off his four-seamer is going to be critical to his success.

Kazmir’s slider is no longer the unhittable pitch in the mid-80′s that it once was, but even in the low-80′s it still shows dynamic late bite with the ability to force plenty of swings-and-misses. However, for that to happen it has to be set up by his fastball. Kazmir doesn’t do a great job throwing his slider for called strikes and he has to get ahead in the count for it be a real weapon. Kazmir has always been an orthodox pitcher, working with fastball-slider instead of fastball-curveball or sinker-slider, but now with his two-seam fastball coming into play, Kazmir could beat hitters with a tantalizing combination of big movement on his two-seamer and sharp action on his slider. Kazmir’s slider was especially effective in the past because he was throwing his fastball so much more often that hitters couldn’t sit slider and saw it jump on them whenever he delivered it. Kazmir has to be careful not to fall in love with his slider even if it might be his best offering at this point and simply use it another pitch in his arsenal or his inability to throw it for called strikes could get him into serious trouble. If he keeps his slider usage right around the 17% clip that it has been his entire career, it can resume being a great put-away pitch for him and a pitch that hitters quickly learn to hate once again.

Then there is the changeup, the pitch Kazmir learned from James Shields to complement his fastball and slider back in the day. Kazmir doesn’t locate it nearly as well as Shields does, but he’s able to get nice sink on it and it could be even more effective since its movement mirrors his two-seamer. Kazmir’s changeup is especially important as a weapon against right-handed batters. Elite fastball velocity can beat anyone, but now that Kazmir’s fastball isn’t as hard, he’s going to depend more on deception, something he has less of against righties. Kazmir’s slider is relatively split-neutral, but his changeup is an asset as a pitch he can both throw into the zone and out of it, and retire hitters even when they’re laying off his slider down in the zone. Kazmir does need to work on throwing it for strikes consistently as its great movement makes it another pitch Kazmir struggles at times to control. What Kazmir really needs to finish off his arsenal is a groundball offering, and his changeup is decidedly not that. However, it gives him yet another swing-and-miss pitch and another thing for hitters, especially from the right side, to think about, and as a fourth offering, it can more than fill its role for Kazmir moving forward.

Scott Kazmir has clear work to do commanding his two-seamer better to reduce the load on his four-seamer and not falling in love with his slider. He has never been a pitcher who has done a great job throwing strikes, and with reduced stuff, that becomes even more important. However, he still has a plus offering in his slider and three more pitches that can still be effective, and with that in mind, Scott Kazmir could still have several more promising years in his career. Kazmir has always been inconsistent and that might be even more the case now as he won’t be able to get away with nearly as many mistakes as he used to. But on the whole, Kazmir has enough left to be at least a 4th or 5th starter in the major leagues who may be far from the most dependable pitcher in the world but delivers flashes of dominance. There are no guarantees of that happening, but if a few things go right, Indians fans and Rays fans rooting for their former ace could have something to be excited about.

Indians starter Trevor Bauer, called up for this one start, was wild from the beginning, walking the bases loaded without recording an out. The Rays plated a run when Evan Longoria walked, forcing in Desmond Jennings. After a pop foul for the first out, Yunel Escobar hit a line drive to right. Matthew Joyce attempted to score, but was gunned down at the plate by an excellent throw from Ryan Raburn to end the threat.

Cleveland threatened in the top of the third, putting runners on first and second with no one out. Michael Bourn attempted to move the runners over, but Longoria fielded the bunt and fired to second to force the runner, as Escobar alerted covered the base. After Alex Cobb escaped the threat, it was the Rays turn to look to score. Following a leadoff walk, Jennings stole second and third. Joyce hit a high chopper to third, and Jennings broke for home. Although he slammed into Lou Marson, he held onto the ball and tagged Jennings out. Jennings has been getting on base since Spring Training, and has carried that into the season. When he does, the Rays offense seems to have a different feel then it typically does. Bauer would walk the bases loaded again, but escaped when he struck out Escobar to end the inning.

Despite having seven baserunners at that point, the Rays got their first hit in the fourth, when Jose Molina singled to left. Kelly Johnson followed with a two run home run to expand the lead to 3-0. Bauer exited after five innings, allowing three runs on two hits, but walked seven batters and only had two strikeouts.  Matt Albers entered the game in the sixth, and was greeted by what appeared to be a single off the bat of Yunel Escobar. However, Escobar was hustling on the play, and was safe at second on a controversial call when it was determined that Jason Kipnis missed the tag. That call paid immediate dividends for the Rays, as Shelley Duncan drove Escobar in with a base hit.

Meanwhile, Cobb was cruising along, shutting down the Indians offense. In his 7.1 innings of work, he allowed four hits and three walks, striking out six in his 103 pitch outing. With this outing, each member of the Rays rotation went at least six innings in their first start, which is an excellent sign. the Rays had been preaching a ‘pitch to contact’ mentality this spring, and, for the first time through the rotation at least, it appears to have taken hold.

The Rays tacked another couple of runs on the board in the bottom of the eighth. With runners on first and third and two outs, James Loney hit a double into the gap, plating both runners and putting the Rays ahead 6-0. Joel Peralta and Cesar Ramos combined with Cobb to shut out the Indians for the second straight night.

Every Rays starter got on base against Cleveland pitching. Loney was 2-4 with a double, two RBIs and a walk. Jennings was 1-3, but walked twice, stole two bases, and scored a run.

The Rays go for the sweep tomorrow, as David Price faces Justin Masterson at 1:40 on Sunday.

The game began as a pitcher’s duel, with Moore and Cleveland starter Zack McAllister trading zeros for the first three innings. Having trailed in all three games against the Orioles, the Rays scored first for the first time all season as they finally got to McAllister in the fourth, as Sam Fuld led off the inning with a single, and scored on Ben Zobrist‘s double. After a single moved Zobrist to third, he came around to score on an RBI groundout by Yunel Escobar, putting the Rays ahead 2-0.

Tampa struck again in the fifth. After two quick outs, Desmond Jennings fought back from a 0-2 to get a full count, and reached on an error by Mike Aviles. Fuld singled, putting runners at the corners for Zobrist, who hit his second double in as many innings, driving both runners in to put the Rays ahead 4-0.

Moore, meanwhile, was cruising. Despite a couple of rough patches with his control, he managed to right himself, shutting down the Indians lineup. Overall, Moore allowed only two hits, both by Michael Bourn, and two walks while striking out eight batters in his six innings of work. Moore, retired the last eight batters he faced, and three relievers each pitched perfect innings to preserve the victory. Overall, Rays pitching struck out 12 Indians batters. Fuld, Zobrist and Jose Lobaton each had two hits in the victory.

Another encouraging sign for the Rays may have been the outing by Jake McGee. McGee had been excellent in 2012, but had gotten shelled in his first outing of 2013, making it fair to wonder how he would bounce back. In his first outing since that performance, he fired a perfect inning, and had first pitch strikes to all three batters faced as he got three groundouts. Hopefully, this outing can be the start of a run of success such as McGee had last season.

The Rays and Indians meet for their second game of the series at 7:10 tomorrow night, as Alex Cobb will face the recently recalled Trevor Bauer.