After the July 27th game between the Angels and the Rays, Dan Haren’s ERA stood at 4.59. James Shields’ was at 4.52. Then for the rest of the season, Shields went 7-3 with a 1.99 ERA, an 8.9 K/9, a 1.4 BB/9, and a 0.8 HR/9 in 12 starts and 90.1 IP.  Haren went 4-5 with a 3.84 ERA, a 6.9 K/9, a 1.5 BB/9, and a 1.5 HR/9 in 11 starts and 61 IP. Haren certainly didn’t dominate the way Shields did, but it was an improvement over his performance from the first three months of the season. Haren’s overall homer rate in 2012 of 1.4 per 9 innings was the highest of his career and nearly double his 0.8 HR/9 from 2011, something vaguely reminiscent of Shields’ career-high 1.5 HR/9 from his frustrating 2010, and his 9.7 hits allowed per 9 innings ratio also represented a  career-high. But also similar to Shields in 2010, bad luck was definitely a factor for Haren. A career-high 10.1% of the flyballs he allowed to the outfield in 2012 went for home runs, nearly identical to Shields’ 10.0% mark from 2010. However, while the Rays believed in Shields enough to give him another chance, the Angels had seen enough from Haren and have let him go.

Not all the circumstances are the same. Shields really struggled in 2010 but was still healthy the entire season and actually threw 203.2 innings while Haren threw dealt with a back injury and tossed just 176.2 IP, ending his streak of seven straight 200-inning seasons. Shield’s 92.3 MPH average fastball velocity in 2010 per Brooks Baseball was actually 1 MPH harder than his 92.3 MPH average from 2009 while Haren’s average fastball velocity experienced a precipitous drop from 90.6 MPH to 89.1 MPH. But how do you not trust a pitcher like Haren to rebound after the dependability he had shown everyone he had gone in the past?

The value of durability among major league starting pitchers is at an all-time low. Two of the most dependable pitchers in baseball, Roy Halladay and CC Sabathia, missed time with arm injuries in 2012, with Halladay breaking a streak of six straight years throwing 200 or more innings, and Sabathia barely extending his streak to seven years as he tossed exactly 200 innings. It’s important to have pitchers who can go 200 innings and it’s great to have pitchers who can do so consistently, but in baseball these days you’re willing to sacrifice innings from your starters if they are pitching more effectively. David Price is a great pitcher, but he threw just 211 innings in 2012 and very well may win the AL Cy Young. Chris Sale and Jered Weaver will also get Cy Young votes, and they managed just 192 and 188.2 innings respectively. The Washington Nationals didn’t have a single pitcher top 200 innings and were still considered to have one of the best rotations in baseball in 2012. Dependability from pitchers is still necessary- pitchers don’t do you much help if they’re not starting every fifth day. But when pitchers stop pitching as effectively as they had in the past, teams don’t care about how many innings they threw. Dan Haren was not that bad in 2012, not nearly as bad as A.J. Burnett with the Yankees in 2011 or his teammate Ervin Santana this season. But even if his poor 2012 had at least something to do with bad luck, if he isn’t the pitcher he used to be, he’s not worth keeping aboard. The Rays keeping Shields after 2010 was a major outlier. Of the 25 pitchers 28 years old or older to throw 180 or more innings with an ERA over 5.00 from 2005 to 2011, 18 of them were off the team where they pitched like that within two years.

Dan Haren might rebound next season to get back to his career norms and be a topflight starting pitcher. But after one season of injury and ineffectiveness, the Angels don’t want to take the risk even on a contract they can readily afford and even as letting Haren go gives the Angels just three pitchers guaranteed to return who made as many as 10 starts for them in 2012. If the Angels can’t re-sign Zack Greinke now, they will be in serious trouble. However, the Angels don’t have time to have faith in Haren despite his outstanding track record. They can’t bank on him rebounding and they can’t afford to miss the playoffs again next season. The Rays’ plan the past six years has been to do everything they can to win now but to keep their priority at winning as much as possible in the long-term. But in the current baseball world and in a major market like Los Angeles, the Angels need results fast, and for better or worse track record goes out the window and they have to do everything they can to get the players with the best chance to lead them to victory now.

The Rays actually got the scoring started first. In the top of the 2nd inning, with one out, Jeff Keppinger connected on the first pitch he saw from Haren for a solo home run to left field. It was his fourth home run of the season and the start of what would be a solid evening for the day’s designated hitter. Keppinger went 3 for 4 on the day, adding a 7th inning double and a stolen base to his solo home run.

Jeff Keppinger has been a bright spot for the Rays offense this season and nearly provided it all himself Friday night in Los Angeles. (Image Credit: Kim Klement-US PRESSWIRE)

Unfortunately the Rays offense failed to otherwise show up for the game. The team managed just six hits on the game, with only one coming from someone other than Keppinger after the 8th inning (a Desmond Jennings pinch-hit single). Sam Fuld and Ben Zobrist had the team’s other two hits on the game, both doubles.

Haren picked up the win, pushing his record to 8-8 in what has been a trying season for the right-hander. He’s struggled with consistency and has seen a significant spike in his WHIP that has lead directly to a jump in his ERA after finishing in the Top 10 in AL Cy Young Award voting last year. Haren threw 6.0 innings in the game, allowing just the five hits while walking one and striking out six. He lowered his season ERA to 4.59.

The struggles Haren has endured this year at least in part prompted a significant trade that the Angels completed late Friday afternoon. The team agreed to send their top prospect, shortstop Jean Segura,and a pair of Double-A right-handers, Ariel Pena and John Hellweg, to the Milwaukee Brewers in exchange for Zack Greinke. The right-hander instantly gives the Angels a very tough 1-2 punch atop their rotation, paring Greinke with Jered Weaver. Greinke’s next start had been slated for Sunday against the Washington Nationals, but it’s unclear when he’ll make his Angels debut and if the Rays will still be in town to face him.

Los Angeles answered the Rays scoring in the bottom of the 3rd inning. Rays starter Alex Cobb was able to get two quick outs to begin the inning, inducing ground outs from both Maicer Izturis and Bobby Wilson, but then allowed back-to-back singles to Mike Trout and Torii Hunter. Albert Pujols stepped to the plate next and took a 1-1 pitch to left field that Fuld nearly made a diving catch on. Instead, the ball for Pujols’ 26th double of the season, scoring both Trout and Hunter. Mark Trumbo singled two pitches later, driving in Pujols for his 69th RBI before he was thrown out trying to advance to second base and ending the inning.

Like Keppinger, Pujols went 3 for 4 on the game, adding two singles to the double that drove in his 62nd and 63rd RBI of the year. Pujols got off to a terrible start to the season through the month of April but has since turned things around and is looking like his old self again.

Early Friday evening, RCG Editor Robbie Knopf discussed how important Cobb may prove to be to this Rays team, particularly in the coming two months depending on what moves the team chooses to make prior to Tuesday’s trade deadline (specifically the fate of James Shields). Part of the team’s decision whether or not they will move Shields will largely depend on who they feel comfortable using to replace him in the starting rotation from a group of possibilities comprised essentially of a trio of Cobb, Chris Archer, and the soon-to-be-rehabbing Jeff Niemann. Cobb, while no star, could prove to be a valuable piece of this Rays team in the coming years if he’s able to be an affordable option at the back end of the rotation.

Cobb pitched well in the game, with the exception of that 3rd inning. He made it through 7.0 innings, allowing the three runs on eight hits while striking out three. The loss dropped him to 4-8 on the year.

A pair of lefties will take the mound for Saturday’s game, with Matt Moore (6-7, 4.23) opposing C.J. Wilson (9-6, 2.89).

* With Robbie taking some much-deserved vacation time over the next two weeks you’ll be seeing a lot more content from Staff Writer David Hill around these parts, plus a few items Robbie’s scheduled in advance so that you don’t miss him while he’s gone. I’ll be stopping in from time to time to help him out as well. My name is Aaron Somers. I’m the Editorial Director here for FanSided MLB and the Senior Editor & Lead Writer for our Washington Nationals site, District on Deck. In addition to the great staff here at RCG, feel free to follow me on Twitter @AaronJSomers.