7/28/07: Tampa Bay Rays trade RHP Seth McClung to the Milwaukee Brewers for RHP Grant Balfour.

This trade seemed like a complete afterthought at the time, a trade of one struggling middle reliever for another. But the acquisition of Balfour happened to be one of the many things that had to go right for the Rays’ 2008 season to be as good as it was.

McClung, 26 at the time of the deal, had seen time both as a starter and a reliever for the Rays in 2005 and 2006, going just 13-23 with a 6.44 ERA, a 6.4 K/9, a 5.5 BB/9, a 1.4 HR/9, and actually 6 saves in 32 starts, 41 relief appearances, and 212.1 IP. He spent all of his time with the D-Rays in 2007 at Triple-A, and he did post a 1.99 ERA in 40 appearances, but while his K/9 was 10.4 and his homer rate was 0.5 per 9 innings, his BB/9 was ghastly 6.4. McClung threw a nice fastball in the mid-90′s, but his secondary pitches never really developed, with his best one being an 11-to-5 curveball that he struggled mightily to locate.

Balfour, 29, had been a semi-effective reliever for the Minnesota Twins in 2003 and 2004, going 5-1 with a 4.27 ERA, a 9.9 K/9, a 4.8 BB/9, and a 1.1 HR/9 in 53 appearances and 65.1 IP. But he missed all of 2005 and 2006 after undergoing Tommy John Surgery, and he struggled with the Brewers in 2007, posting a 20.25 ERA in 3 appearances. But Balfour was pitching extremely well during his time at Triple-A in 2007, posting a 1.87 ERA, a 14.1 K/9, a 3.1 BB/9, and a 0.4 HR/9 in 32 relief appearances. Balfour was a relatively similar pitcher to McClung, throwing a mid-90′s fastball and an inconsistent breaking ball, although his was a slider, but the difference was his track record and his control.

Andrew Friedman and the Rays saw that McClung had no value as a pitcher, and in exchange for him, they managed to get at the very least a serviceable major league reliever. It was an excellent low risk trade, and the results were incredible. Balfour struggled to the tune of a 6.14 ERA the rest of 2007 with the Rays, but he was incredible in 2008, going 6-2 with a 1.54 ERA, a 12.7 K/9, a 3.7 BB/9, and a 0.5 HR/9 in 51 appearances, and after posting just a 4.81 ERA in 2009, Balfour was great again in 2010, posting a 2.28 ERA, a 9.1 K/9, a 2.8 BB/9, and a 0.5 HR/9 in 57 appearances. Balfour departed as a free agent following the 2010 season, and the Rays thanked him on the way out for two tremendous years. He has since been great in 2011 and 2012 for the Oakland Athletics. McClung, meanwhile, was actually pretty decent for the Brewers between the end of 2007 and 2008, going 6-7 with a 3.99 ERA, a 7.5 K/9, a 4.6 BB/9, and a 0.8 HR/9 in 39 relief appearances, 12 starts, and 117.1 IP, but he collapsed to a 4.94 ERA in 41 appearances in 2009 as his strikeout to walk ratio was just 40-39 and his HR/9 was 1.6, and he has been hit hard at Triple-A for the Rangers in 2011 and then back with the Brewers for 2012. This trade was very under-the-radar, but this was one of Friedman’s best trades. No one thought Balfour would be quite as good as he was, but he was a marked upgrade compared to McClung, and the difference between the two turned out to be staggering.

7/28/07: Tampa Bay Rays trade 2B Jorge Cantu and OF Shawn Cumberland to the Cincinnati Reds in exchange for LHP Brian Shackelford and RHP Calvin Medlock.

This deal was actually the more notable D-Rays deal on July 28th, 2007 as they dealt Cantu, who had slammed 28 home runs back in 2005. Cantu, just 25 at the time of this deal, had been terrible in 2006, posting just a .249/.295/.404 line (80 OPS+) with 14 homers, and he was even worse in 2007 as he had seen time at Triple-A, hitting just .205 with only 1 homer in 25 major league games and 65 plate appearances. Friedman held on to Cantu in 2006 clearly hoping that he would rebound in 2007, but that did not happen by any stretch.

Cumberland, 22, was an afterthought outfielder who was terrible at Double-A in 2007, posting just a .246/.303/.347 line with 6 home runs and just 3 of 11 stolen bases. He had been excellent at High-A in 2006, posting just a .258/.316/.396 line, but with 16 home runs, 98 RBI, and 29 of 38 stolen bases. Primarily a right fielder, Cumberland’s flaws were zero plate discipline, poor instincts on the basepaths, and a strong, but extremely erratic right fielder’s arm.

Shackelford, 30, had gotten off to a nice start to his professional career as a situational lefty with the Reds in 2005, posting a 2.43 ERA, a 5.2 K/9, a 2.7 BB/9, and a 0.6 HR/9 in 37 appearances. He had also seen major league time with the Reds in 2006, but he posted just a 7.16 ERA, an 8.3 K/9, a 5.3 BB/9, and a 2.2 HR/9 (gasp) in 26 appearances. He had recovered a little bit at Triple-A in 2007, posting a 4.91 ERA, a 3.9 K/9, a 3.6 BB/9, and a 0.0 HR/9 in 41 appearances. The Rays had to hope he could recover to be at least a passable lefty middle reliever.

Medlock, 24, was another right-handed reliever, but he threw in just the high-80′s with his fastball a couple of inconsistent secondary offerings in a curveball and a changeup. In 2006, he posted a 2.97 ERA, a 9.9 K/9, a 4.0 BB/9, and a 0.6 HR/9 in 42 relief appearances at Double-A, but he sputtered to a 5.62 ERA and just a 17-14 strikeout to walk ratio after being promoted to Triple-A in 2007.

Cantu had completely fallen off a cliff and Friedman was trying to get anything he could get for him. He managed to trade Cantu and an afterthought in Cumberland for a couple of relievers with a chance to be major league contributors. Cumberland had shown solid results as a situational lefty in the past and Friedman hoped that he could recover that, and Medlock did show some flashes with his curveball and changeup and even in terms of his fastball velocity. This trade turned out pretty bad for both sides. Cumberland and Medlock amounted to nothing for the Rays, and same story with Cumberland for the Reds while Cantu broke out, but only after the Reds non-tendered him in 2007, hitting 29 homers for the Marlins in 2009 and hitting just 16 homers but driving in 100 for the Marlins in 2010. He then proceeded to fall off a cliff again after he was dealt to the Texas Rangers at the 2011 trade deadline.

In this trade, Friedman tried to do exactly what he did with the Balfour deal: turn players who were going nowhere into major league contributors. Unfortunately, the players he acquired did not pan out at all and this trade was forgotten. Friedman had to view this as another low-risk play. It turned out that Cantu had some ability left, but no one had any idea what to make of him, and nobody still does. In trades like this, general managers take shots at players hoping that they can return to their previous caliber of play. The simple truth is that some work and some don’t. The Balfour trade where Balfour became a ridiculous reliever for the Rays for a couple of seasons is certainly the exception, not the rule. But when you  throw enough darts, one of them has to hit the bullseye. Friedman took two shots on July 28th, 2007, and while one trade was forgotten, one trade turned into exactly the type of lift the Rays needed for 2008.

Maybe the Rays don’t make a blockbuster trade at this year’s deadline. But they could make an under-the-radar deal, and you never know how it could turn out.

One of those free agents was Juan Cruz. The reliever had spent the last 10 seasons with five different teams (more…)

Pitching:

The Rays have been pulverized in the bullpen this off-season.  They lost Randy Choate, Grant Balfour, Joaquin Benoit, Rafael Soriano, and Dan Wheeler.  Let’s break this down a bit…

Randy Choate: 3-1 with a 3.04 ERA in the 2nd half of 2010, plus he held lefties to a .202 AVE, which although great, was 61 points higher than what lefties hit off him in 2009.

Grant Balfour: In three full seasons (2008-2010) with TB, Balfour solidified himself as an imposing figure on the mound (not just because he talks to himself), made evident by his 12.4, 9.2, and 9.1 K/9 over that span.

Joaquin Benoit: Turns out all Benoit needed was some time off.  After missing the 2009 campaign while recovering from Rotator Cuff surgery, Benoit went out and had himself a career year in 2010.  His 1.34 ERA and 0.68 WHIP were best among all Rays relievers.  Plus his 6.82 K/BB was astonishing, considering Roy Halladay led the National League with a 7.3 K/BB.  At 33 years of age, when offered a three-year $16.5M contract to go play up in Motown, Benoit didn’t hesitate.

Rafael Soriano: Turns out Soriano was without question the biggest winner this off-season.  After posting a mind-numbing 1.73 ERA along with a 0.80 WHIP, Soriano took his talents to the New York Yankees.  He is now the most expensive set-up man in all of baseball.  $10M in 2011, $11M in 2012, and a whopping $14M in 2013, seems to me the Yankees got a little trigger-happy after Cliff Lee slapped them in the face.  Soriano was without question a shut-down guy for the Rays in 2010 and helped lead the Rays to the AL East title with his league-leading 45 Saves.

Now we look at the loss of Matt Garza in the starting rotation and ask ourselves, “What the heck are the Rays gonna do”?

Before you start to try and answer this question, I need you all to take a deep breath…and relax!  Matt Garza won 15 games last season, threw the first ever no-hitter in Rays franchise history, and of course who can forget the lights-out performance in the 2008 ALCS?!  He’s good.  Fine.  However imposing he may look one day though, he sure has a way of masking his dominance.  In three seasons with the Rays (2008-2010), Garza has never posted an ERA below 3.70, and that was in 2008.  He is definitely a work-horse, displaying an increase in innings pitched over the last three seasons (185, 203, 205), but despite the number of innings, he’s only cracked 150 strikeouts once.

Garza will be missed in the rotation but fans should soon realize that this money-saving trade, guaranteeing Jeremy Hellickson a  spot in the starting rotation, may have been the best move the Rays made all off-season.  How can I say that, you ask?  Well sure Jeremy Hellickson has star-potential written all over him, but many are failing to see who the Rays received in return for Garza.

Chris Archer was the Chicago Cubs’ No.1 rated pitching prospect and the organizations Minor League Player of the Year in 2010.  Posting an absurd 15-3 mark with a 2.34 ERA while at A-Daytona and AA-Tennessee.  The Rays can play it slow with Archer and see how things work out in the minors before deciding on where he may best serve the Rays, long-term.  This season he was #47 on The MLB Networks Top 50 Prospects but don’t be surprised to see him in the Top 25 next season.

It’s hard to say that the Rays will be a more formidable pitching staff in 2010 given the loss of a 15 game winner.  However, my thoughts are that even with Garza gone, the Rays will have a lower ERA amongst their starters.  The combination of James Shields, Jeff Niemann, and Wade Davis posted a 4.58 ERA last season.  Niemann (4.39) and Davis (4.07) should be able to maintain those numbers.  Shields on the other hand, should be able to lower his ERA to the 4.0 area.  He posted a career worst 5.18 ERA in 2010.  Input Jeremy Hellickson into this rotation, the Rays may have the best starting rotation in the American League.  Now add in the three first round and four compensation round selections the Rays have in this years 2011 MLB Player Draft.  The Rays will select seven times in the first 57 picks.  We could be in for a very eventful season in Tampa Bay folks!

Remembering the scoring system, and that if the Rays were the same now as they were before this off-season, they would receive a “C” grade (providing equal room to improve or regress).

Off-Season Grade:

D+

The loss of arms in the bullpen knocked my grade down to the D/D- range but the opening for Hellickson along with the additions to the farm system and the influx of 2011 draft picks helped raise the grade back up.

Questions, Comments, Concerns?  Just send us your thoughts and who knows, we may end up answering you during our next Q&A.