Triple-A International League: Durham Bulls 7, Syracuse Chiefs (WSN) 1

After seeing just how good he was last season for the Rays, everyone knows how talented Chris Archer. But early on the season for Durham, Archer’s performance lagged far behind what you would have expected for a pitcher who was supposedly big league-ready as his ERA was just 6.84. But after the way Archer pitched on Tuesday, any concerns are gone. Archer dominated the Chiefs for 6 sharp innings, allowing no runs on 4 hits, striking out 7 while walking 2. He also managed a 7-3 groundout to flyout ratio, showing great command of his fastball and slider and blowing hitters away. It had to be nice for Archer to get some run support right from the start, with the Bulls getting him 1 run in the top of the 1st and another in the 4th before they broke they game open with 4 runs in the 6th. Central to that offensive effort was Wil Myers, who ignited the 6th inning rally with a leadoff home run, his third of the season. Leslie Anderson also went 3 for 5 with a double, 2 RBI, and a run scored, Brandon Guyer went 2 for 5 with a triple, an RBI, and a run scored, and Craig Albernaz had a double and 2 RBI. Great all-around effort for the Bulls, the exact opposite of what the Rays did on Tuesday.

High-A Florida State League: Lakeland Flying Tigers 7, Charlotte Stone Crabs 5 (10 innings)

Devastating loss for Charlotte as they went from leading 4-3 after 8 innings to allowing 2 runs each in the 9th and 10th to lose the game. Ryan Carpenter got the start for the Stone Crabs and was OK, going 6 innings allowing 3 runs on 5 hits, striking out 5 while walking 2. He allowed a homer each in the 1st and 2nd but did a nice job limiting the damage from there. Behind him, Lenny Linsky was great, going 2 shutout innings allowing 2 hits while striking out 1. He got 3 of his outs on the ground. Linsky has a 3.68 ERA and an 11-3 strikeout to walk ratio to begin the season, and maybe he’s finally making progress after his career got derailed by a shoulder injury. Austin Hubbard and Eliazer Suero, though, blew the game in the 9th and 10th to lead to the Charlotte loss. Hector Guevara had a huge game for the Stone Crabs, going 2 for 4 with a homer, a double, 3 RBI, and 2 runs scored, Jake Hager went 2 for 5 with a stolen base, and Brett Nommensen and Richie Shaffer also has multiple hits. Shaffer has not hit in 4 straight games and collected multiple hits in 2 straight as he appears to finally be breaking out after he started slowly in his first full year as a professional.

Low-A Midwest League: Bowling Green Hot Rods 8, Peoria Chiefs (STL) 0

Dominant effort by the Hot Rods as this one was never close. The Hot Rods 3-hit Peoria in the game, and that was started by Jeff Ames, who went five 1-hit innings striking out 5 while walking 1. Ames has been unbelievable all season, going 3-0 with a 1.80 ERA and a 22-2 strikeout to walk ratio in 5 starts and 25 innings pitched, and he’s emerging as another interesting pitching prospect for the Rays. Brandon Henderson followed Ames with 2.2 perfect innings before Ryan Garton allowed 2 hits over the final 1.1 IP as he finished the shutout. On the offensive side, Tuesday’s game marked Tyler Goeddel‘s first game since going down with a hamstring injury, and he looked as good as ever despite missing five days, going 1 for 2 with a triple, 2 walks, 2 RBI, and 2 runs scored. Goeddel has been huge to begin the year, managing a .286/.378/.443 line with 3 doubles, 4 triples, 9 RBI, and 7 stolen bases in 8 attempts. Goeddel also was great to begin 2012 with Bowling Green, but this time his plate discipline is vastly improved as his strikeout to walk ratio is 10-10, and a promotion to High-A should come relatively soon if he keeps this up. The only question should that happen will be where Goeddel fits in as Shaffer currently slots in as Charlotte’s third baseman. Which one would move off of third base first? Goeddel had a great game, but the star of this one was Luke Maile, who went 3 for 5 with 2 doubles, a homer, 4 RBI, and a run scored–quite a game for a player who hadn’t hit a homer entering Tuesday. Ryan Dunn and Granden Goetzman also had multiple hits for the Hot Rods, who stand at 18-6, the best record in the Midwest League’s Eastern Division.

Triple-A International League Game 1: Durham Bulls 10, Norfolk Tides (BAL) 4 (7 innings)

The game was going about as well as it possibly could have. Through 3 innings, the Bulls offense had already driven in 5 runs while Chris Archer rolled on the pitching side, and the Bulls had a 5-0 lead. In the 4th, though Chris Archer got into a 1-out jam, allowing a walk, a single, and a walk to load the bases. But everyone had confidence that Archer would be OK, and sure enough, Archer forced a groundball to Tim Beckham at second base. As this video shows (although I can’t recommend watching it), Beckham fielded the ball a little less than halfway-between second base and first base with his momentum taking him towards first, but he made the ill-advised decision to not only go for the force at second base but also to flip the ball to the shortstop Hak-Ju Lee instead of throwing it, and the ramifications of that were everyone’s worst nightmare. The ball came towards Lee and was slightly offline, and Lee couldn’t handle it, putting him right in front of second base as the runner, Travis Ishikawa, slid into the base. Ishikawa feet slid directly into the lower part of Lee’s leg, and after the contact caused Lee to bend down, Ishikawa’s head collided directly with Lee’s knee, leaving Lee writhing in pain and Ishikawa also hurt. Both would leave the game, but their prognoses were very different. Ishikawa had broken his nose; Lee had torn ligaments in his knee and will be out for the remainder of the season. Lee was 1 for 2 in the game, upping his average to .422 in 45 at-bats on the season. Overall, he managed a .422/.536/.600 line with 3 doubles, a triple, a homer, 7 RBI, 6 of 8 in stolen base attempts, and 11 walks against just 9 strikeouts in 15 games and 56 plate appearances. He was playing out of his mind on a trajectory that would surely end in the major leagues by the time the season was through- but now it’s over.

Archer went 5 innings allowing 3 runs, 2 earned, on 7 hits, striking out 4 while walking 3 but forcing an outstanding 8-1 groundout to flyout ratio. Steve Geltz tossed the final 2 innings for Durham and allowed a run on 3 hits but struck out 5 without walking a batter, leaving him with 9 strikeouts against no walks in his last two games. Geltz is a pitcher known for severe control struggles, but maybe he has finally broken through. On the offensive side, Leslie Anderson slammed a 3-run homer in 4 trips, Mike Fontenot went 2 for 3 with a double, 2 RBI, and a run scored, and Beckham went 1 for 2 with a triple, a walk, and a run scored. It was a dominating win, but all feeling was taken out of it when Lee went down.

Game 2: Durham Bulls 5, Norfolk Tides 3 (7 innings)

There was a second game as well, and the Bulls came away with a second win while their emotions were numb. Alex Torres pitched solidly for Durham although his control issues resurfaced, going 5 innings allowing 3 runs on just 1 hit, striking out 8 while walking 4 and posting a 5-1 groundout to flyout ratio. Hopefully the strikeouts and groundouts are more indicative of the future than the walks. Kirby Yates and Josh Lueke struck out 5 batters in the next 2 innings to finish the game, leaving the Bulls with 13 strikeouts in just 7 innings. Wow. On the offensive, an event we have all been waiting for finally took place as Wil Myers slammed his first home run of the season, going 1 for 2 with a walk on the day. Myers’ power hasn’t been impressive so far, but his strikeout to walk ratio has been an outstanding 15-10, exactly what the Rays needed to see from him after he managed just a 140-61 mark last year. Vince Belnome also had a 2-run home run, and Beckam went 1 for 3 with an RBI double. Great to see Myers slam that first homer, but he certainly could have picked a better day because one home run doesn’t ease the grief of losing Lee for the year.

Double-A Southern League: Tennessee Smokies (CHC) 11, Montgomery Biscuits 4

It’s amazing that this game was as close as it was because the Biscuits were terrible. Jake Thompson got shelled again, going 4 innings allowing 7 runs, 6 earned, on 8 hits, striking out 4 while walking 2. He followed up a tremendous season debut by allowing 7 runs in 4 innings in his last 2 starts. The bullpen only allowed 4 more runs in the next 4 innings. But pretty amazing was the offense, which didn’t get a single hit outside of its first three batters but somehow managed to score 4 runs, stranding just 1 runner on base the entire game. Ty Morrison went 2 for 4 with an RBI and a run scored and Mikie Mahtook had an RBI triple.

High-A Florida State League: Charlotte Stone Crabs 7, Jupiter Hammerheads (MIA) 4 (13 innings)

Lenny Linsky blew the save in the 9th (to his credit, he was trying to pull off the always-difficult 2.2 inning save), but Charlotte got 3 runs in the 13th to win the game 7-4. Parker Markel struggled once again to begin the year, allowing 3 runs in 3.2 innings, but Eliazer Suero and Linsky were excellent, allowing just 1 run in 5.1 innings. Unfortunately for them, that one run was enough to send the game into extra innings. But after Nate Garcia tossed 2 shutout innings, Hector Guevara came up huge in the 13th, drilling a 2-run double as part of a 3-run inning as the Stone Crabs found a way to win. Jake DePew had a big game, going 2 for 4 with a walk and an RBI, Jeff Malm finally slammed his first homer of the season and surprisingly stole a base, and Alejandro Segovia and Kyeong Kang both went 2 for 6, with Segovia driving in 2 runs. Outstanding bullpen effort by the Stone Crabs (1 run in 8.1 innings!), and it was great that they got enough offense to make it count.

Low-A Midwest League: Dayton Dragons (CIN) 6, Bowling Green Hot Rods 3

Disastrous finish to this one as Jose Alberto Molina allowed 4 runs in the 8th to turn a 3-2 lead into a 6-3 deficit. Before that, Sean Bierman was great for Bowling Green, going 5 innings allowing just 2 runs, 1 earned, on 1 hit, striking out 6 while walking 1. After he’s allowed just 1 run in his first 3 starts, allowing just 7 hits in 16 innings, striking out 11 while walking 2, and managing a 1.40-to-1 groundout to airout ratio, you have to imagine that he could be ticketed for High-A before long if he keeps pitching well. On the offensive side, Andrew Toles slammed the home run that gave the Hot Rods their 3-2 lead in the 8th, Joey Rickard went 2 for 3 with a triple, a walk, and an RBI, and Tyler Goeddel had a triple of his own and a run scored. Solid effort by the Hot Rods, and tough to see the game finish the way it did.

Will Bailey ever turn his abilities into results? (Credit: Flickr user BeGreen90)

Catcher

Luke Bailey, who will turn 22 in March, was a 4th round draft pick by the Rays in 2010 (17 picks after Wil Myers), and was the fifth-youngest player on the Stone Crabs in 2012. Bailey is the Rays’ only real catching prospect above Low-A, and unfortunately his risk is as high as anyone in the system. While Bailey’s abilities are interesting, his continued rawness makes his future extremely far from a sure thing. In 2012, Bailey managed just a .231/.277/.393 line with 15 doubles, 7 homers, 28 RBI, and 67 strikeouts versus just 8 walks in 67 games and 256 plate appearances. Defensively, he threw out 30% of attempted basestealers, but he allowed 11 passed balls and made 18 errors. Bailey stands out most for good bat speed and raw power and also plus arm strength. But at the plate, he’s severely handicapped by a lack of patience and plate discipline as he got befuddled by breaking balls all season and missed too often when pitchers made mistakes with fastballs. When Bailey connected, he hit the ball pretty hard, but he just could not do that at anywhere near a consistent basis. Defensively, Bailey’s arm strength may be good, but he’s also inaccurate as he gets caught up trying to do too much behind the plate. Bailey’s athletic at 6’0″, 198 but is an inconsistent receiver, and his offensive struggles only made things worse. But all that being said, Bailey’s tools are real and all he may need to rectify his issues is to stay on the field. Bailey played in just 67 games in 2012 after playing 74 in 2011 as injuries sidelined him from April to mid-June. Bailey actually got better as he got more playing time, managing a .240/.280/.453 line with 7 doubles, 3 homers, and 9 RBI in 82 plate appearances between August and September to close out the season. Bailey has done nothing as a pro and the risk with him is only getting higher, but if he can stay on the field, maybe everything could come together. The Rays will stay patient with Bailey knowing how talented he is, and he will likely begin 2013 back at Charlotte with the Rays hoping he’ll make a breakthrough and arrive at Double-A before long.

First Base

Philip Wunderlich was released after a year where he posted a .230/.278/.359 line with 21 doubles, 9 homers, 47 RBI, and 75 strikeouts against 21 walks in 436 plate appearances. I wrote final thoughts on him as a member of the Rays system here.

Second Base

Hector Guevara, the youngest player on the Stone Crabs as he just turned 21 years old, caught the eyes of evaluators when he slammed 8 homers in the Venezuelan Summer League back in 2007 but has hit just 8 combined home runs in 905 plate appearances since then. In 2012 for Charlotte, Guevara managed just a .234/.281/.297 line with 12 doubles, 3 homers, 35 RBI, 6 of 12 stolen bases, and 44 strikeouts against 24 walks in 100 games and 406 appearances. Guevara, who is 5’11″, 170, is a good defensive second baseman with nice range and a strong arm, and he even saw time at shortstop after Derek Dietrich was promoted to Double-A Montgomery in the latter part of the season. But offensively, he doesn’t do anything right now but make contact. His bat speed is solid and he’s able to put the ball in play, but his indiscriminate approach causes him to make too much contact and make a lot of weak contact, especially in the air. The thing that stands out about Guevara’s 2007 performance was that his strikeout to walk ratio was 21-16. Since then, his strikeout to walk ratios have been 31-15, 37-14, and 44-24. He didn’t strike out at all in 2012, striking out in just 10.7% of his plate appearances, but his plate discipline is simply non-existent and it doesn’t matter if he makes contacts if he can’t hit the ball with authority. Guevara is likely in line for a return to Charlotte next season, and the Rays will try to completely readjust his approach in an attempt to see if his power showing from back in 2007 is indicative of anything. Guevara still has youth on his side, but if he can’t fix his approach at the plate, it won’t make a difference.

Robby Price, who will turn 25 in April, was old for High-A in 2012 but had an interesting year for the Stone Crabs while playing second base, third base, and left field. Price posted a .268/.374/.342 line with 14 doubles, 3 triples, 3 homers, 30 RBI, just 5 of 14 stolen bases, and 36 strikeouts against 45 walks in 112 games and 473 plate appearances. Price is a one-tool player and that tool isn’t one of the typical five. His plate discipline is off the charts, and you can add in that he has a talent for getting hit by pitches. In all three of his minor league seasons, he has walked more than he has struck out and gotten hit by at least 15 pitches as well. Price is able to use his plate discipline to make some solid contact but still has no power at all. Defensively, he has a good arm and decent speed, but poor hands prevent him from playing shortstop and that really hurts his utility profile. Price’s age and lack of power makes him a longshot, but if his plate discipline persists at higher levels he could make the big leagues.

Shortstop

Derek Dietrich had a nice year for the Stone Crabs, managing a .281/.343/.468 line with 21 doubles, 9 triples, 10 homers, 58 RBI, and 78 strikeouts against 25 walks in 98 games and 417 plate appearances before getting promoted to Double-A Montgomery. Montgomery has since been traded to the Miami Marlins for Yunel Escobar. I talked about Dietrich one last time in an analysis of that trade here.

Robi Estrada, who turned 24 in October, finally earned a promotion to Charlotte in 2012 after three three straight seasons at Low-A Bowling Green. Estrada was a year too old for the level but did have an OK year, managing a .253/.310/.357 line with 15 doubles, 3 homers, 25 RBI, 6 of 7 stolen bases, and 43 strikeouts against 22 walks in 75 games and 279 plate appearances. Estrada, 5’10″ and 170 pounds, has always been a tap hitter but found a way to find a little pop in 2011 and carried it over into 2012. Estrada actually shows good bat speed from a compact swing, and his pitch recognition is even decent, but he’s way too aggressive within the zone and may actually have a little more power in him if he can fix that. Already 24, though, it may be too late. Estrada’s shows good speed, although he could use work on his basestealing, and his speed gives him solid range defensively, and pairing that with an average arm gives Estrada a chance to profile all over the field. In 2012, he saw time at both middle infield spots along with a couple games in the corner outfield positions as well. Estrada has a chance to be a big league utility player someday, but he has continued improvements to be made offensively and on the basepaths, and given his age that seems unlikely to happen.

Third Base

Riccio Torrez, who turned 23 in October, was the Rays’ 4th round pick in 2011 but did not have the type of full-season pro debut he was hoping for. Torrez managed just a .219/.287/.335 line with 18 doubles, 3 triples, 9 homers, 50 RBI, 7 of 9 stolen bases, and 86 strikeouts against just 27 walks in 123 games and 492 plate appearances. Torrez didn’t swing-and-miss so much, striking out in just 17.5% of his plate appearances compared to the 19.1% league average, but like several of the players above, his fatal flaw was a lack of plate discipline that prevented him from doing anything at the plate. Torrez, a right-handed hitter, was a bit better against lefties than righties, managing a .699 OPS compared to .567, but his lack of patience really holds him back against pitchers of both sides. The good news is that Torrez has already started to make an adjustment, managing a 7.4% walk rate in 288 plate appearances from June to the end of the year after just a 3.0% mark in 198 PA’s in April and May. At his best, Torrez shows solid bat speed with decent pop, and he’s also an average runner with good instincts on the basepaths. Defensively, Torrez shined even amid his offensive struggles, showing a strong arm and good reflexes, and while he played exclusively third base in 2012, he should be able to handle second base and the corner outfield spots while also being able to fake shortstop in a pinch. There is clearly a lot of work for Torrez to go, but it’s good to know that he adjusted as the season went on and he does a lot of things well. Torrez fits a great utility profile as long as he can prove that his plate discipline breakthrough is real, and the Rays hope he can get his numbers in line with where they should be likely back at Charlotte to begin next season with a quick promotion to Double-A a possibility if he plays well.

We’ll stop here for right now. The Stone Crabs’ infielders don’t exactly knock your socks off- the best prospect, Dietrich, was traded- but the Rays could end up with a big leaguer or two out of this group within the next couple of years, and it will be very interesting to see what happens with Luke Bailey. We’ll continue next time with the Stone Crabs’ outfielders.

For more of our scouting reports on the Rays’ minor league affiliates check out our Minor League Affiliates Analysis page here at RCG.