Former Devil Rays top draft pick, Josh Hamilton, signed a five-year deal with the Angels last week. Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

A week ago, the Angels stunned everyone with their blockbuster deal when they signed center fielder Josh Hamilton to a five-year deal worth $125 million. Between Hamilton and Albert Pujols, the Angels have two of the most powerful hitters in all of baseball. But, Rays fans cannot help but sit back and wonder what could have been if the Devil Rays had drafted Albert Pujols in 1999 and if Josh Hamilton had not become an addict while playing minor league baseball for the D-Rays.

The Rays are now known as a team that builds their roster around players from their farm teams, but back in the early days of the D-Rays, the franchise followed a different approach. The D-Rays wanted to become division contenders as soon as possible, after their inception in 1998, and tried to do so by signing free agents. The problem with this approach was that the D-Rays could only afford cheap free agents, which meant most players they signed were past their prime. Less focus was directed towards the D-Rays’ player development with their minor league teams.

Angels first baseman, Albert Pujols, was scouted by the Devil Rays while he played in high school and college. Credit: Kelvin Kuo-USA TODAY Sports

Despite this, one D-Rays scout, Fernando Arango, noticed a high school third baseman named Albert Pujols. While Arango was enamored with Pujols’ fielding finesse and power behind the plate, other D-Rays scouts did not see anything special about Pujols’ skills. Arango wanted the D-Rays to draft Pujols, then a college freshman, in the 1999 draft. But as draft day progressed, Tampa Bay was not making any moves towards acquiring Pujols. The St. Louis Cardinals eventually drafted Pujols in the 13^th round, and Pujols quickly became the power hitter that Arango predicted him to be. We all know Pujols played an influential role in the Cardinals’ success over the 10 years he played in St. Louis, including helping them win the World Series in 2006 and 2011, and is still capable of terrorizing pitchers with his explosive bat. In the 2012 offseason, Pujols signed a ten-year deal with the Angels worth $240 million.

Pujols’ new teammate, Josh Hamilton, also strikes fear in the hearts of opposing teams, as he is equally prolific in the outfield and at the plate. In 2012, Hamilton reminded everyone of the power his bat is capable of when he hit four home runs in a single game on May 8, 2012. But every Rays fan remembers all too well that Hamilton was once lauded as the future of the D-Rays organization.

The D-Rays drafted Hamilton in 1999, straight out of high school, and he quickly caught everyone’s attention with his dynamic plays in the minor leagues. However, everyone knows that Hamilton’s addiction to drugs and alcohol led to his absence from baseball from 2004-2006. When Hamilton’s career resurged in the 2007 season with the Cincinnati Reds, D-Rays fans everywhere saw what their favorite team was missing without Hamilton in Tampa Bay’s lineup. In 2008, Hamilton became a competitor against the Rays after being traded to the Texas Rangers. The Rays would go on to lose to the Rangers in the ALDS in 2010 and 2011.

Now, Hamilton is 31 and Pujols is 32, and many critics believe that both players will not be worth the value of their deals in five to ten years due to age. Only time will tell whether or not these two players will continue to be the nemesis of opposing teams by the end of their careers with the Angels, but Rays fans know that if Pujols and Hamilton had played together in Tampa Bay in the early 2000s, there would probably be a lot more banners hanging from the roof of Tropicana Field.

The Rays have learned their lesson since then and now focus heavily on stocking their farm system with hopeful future stars for the organization. So far, the system has worked well, finding players like third baseman Evan Longoria and 2012 AL Cy Young Award winner David Price and leading to a string of five straight winnings and three playoff berths, and the Rays showed a continued commitment to their minor league system when they dealt James Shields and Wade Davis to the Kansas City Royals for top prospects Wil Myers and Jake Odorizzi along with two more interesting players in Mike Montgomery and Patrick Leonard. No matter what it still stings to know that two of that best players in baseball could have been franchise cornerstones for the Rays, but we know that the missed opportunities with players like Pujols and Hamilton continue to influence the Rays until today- when they get chances to find players of that caliber, they do everything they can to run with them. In a way, you can credit the Rays’ acquisition of Myers, the consensus 2012 Minor League Player of the Year to Hamilton and Pujols. It made them appreciate just how rarely the opportunity comes around to acquire transcendent talents and willing to take risks knowing that the potential reward could change the course of their franchise.

The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim panicked. They were afraid that their ability to contend in the AL West next season was in jeopardy. They didn’t think they were good enough. What did they do? They signed Josh Hamilton to a 5-year contract, worth 125 million dollars, taking him away from their division-rival Rangers and giving them a force in the middle of their lineup. However, while Hamilton has been one of the best players in baseball the last six years, managing a .304/.363/.549 line (135 OPS+) with 161 home runs, he’ll turn 32 years old in May and has been seen as a very streaky player and extremely injury prone, going on the 15-day DL and four out of his six big league seasons. Add in his history of drug addiction, even though that’s something he has worked very hard to overcome, and the Angels can’t be sure what Hamilton is going to give you over the next five years. But the felt like they had to make a move, and the signing of Hamilton certainly made a splash.

What’s the problem? The Angels didn’t need an outfielder- they needed a pitcher. While their outfield is going to be Mike Trout, Hamilton, and either Peter Bourjos or Mark Trumbo (with Trumbo possibly moving to third base), their pitching staff is not all that impressive. Jered Weaver is a true ace at the top, but C.J. Wilson is enigmatic, the recently-acquired Tommy Hanson has seen injuries lower the caliber of his stuff, Joe Blanton is a fourth starter at best, Jerome Williams hasn’t been good since 2005, and Garrett Richards has potential but his numbers haven’t been that impressive in the minors or majors the last two years. The Angels ranked third in the AL in OPS in 2012 and first in OPS+ accounting for their pitcher’s ballpark. On the pitching side, though, they ranked just 8th in the AL in ERA despite their pitcher-friendly stadium and were just 11th in ERA+ which adjusts for ballpark. Their glaring need was in the rotation, especially with Zack Greinke becoming a free agent, and they flat-out ignored it. It certainly isn’t a bad thing in the short-term that they signed Hamilton- he certainly improves their team and maybe they could possibly trade Trumbo or Bourjos for a starter.But in the long-term, they could very well be crippling themselves.

The Rays have done this process over and over again: they have a good starting pitcher who’s getting expensive and they hold onto him until they can receive peak value before placing him with a younger, cheaper, and most importantly qualified replacement. When they traded Scott Kazmir, they inserted Wade Davis into the rotation. When Matt Garza went to the Cubs, Jeremy Hellickson got an opportunity. And while it will be less clear-cut who will replace James Shields, they have a group of pitchers like Chris Archer and Jake Odorizzi who could fill his rotation spot and pitchers like Matt Moore and Hellickson who could make up for his performance with continued maturation as pitchers. What did the Angels do by signing Hamilton? They had a quality situation in the outfield with three young players who had shown considerable promise in Trout, Trumbo, and Bourjos. They let Torii Hunter go to give them the opportunity to put that trio in the outfield. And now they’re about to sign an older player so they can potentially trade a younger one, most likely Bourjos. Whichever pitcher they’re going to get for Bourjos is going to be far from Greinke or even a pitcher like Anibal Sanchez who the Angels could have conceivably signed. Even if Hamilton is great for the next two or three years, he’s going to decline and still be using up valuable resources that could have been allocated to the pitching staff. Obviously thinking the Angels should run their team like the Rays do is completely flawed because of this enormous difference in payroll- but if the Angels were going to sign a free agent, why didn’t they target a player at a position of need instead of creating a surplus in the outfield when they didn’t have to? The difference between Hamilton and Bourjos factoring in hitting, defense, and baserunning is not nearly as large as the gap between a frontline starter or even a solid number three and the not-so-dynamic duo of Williams and Richards. You’re supposed to deal from a surplus, not deal to create a surplus.

People on sports radio stations have been marveling at how good the Angels’ lineup is combining Hamilton with Mike Trout, Albert Pujols, and Trumbo. But before you anoint them the 2013 World Series Champions or even the favorites, take one look at their rotation and ask yourself whether they’re a better team than the 88-win team they were last year. If they are, it’s not by much. Josh Hamilton is an excellent player, but the Angels signing him just to make a splash and take him away from the Rangers will haunt them for years to come.

Now, as a free agent, Hamilton is reportedly seeking a 7 year, $175Million contract. He does come with a track record of success since being a member of the Rangers, having won an MVP award, three Silver Slugger awards, and having made five consecutive All-Star games. Hamilton has led the American League in RBIs, batting average, and slugging percentage, while finishing second in home runs last year.

While his record of success looks good, he does come with quite a few red flags. While Hamilton is going to turn 32 on may 21, 2013, he has already proven to be fairly injury prone, having missed time due to eye problems, a shoulder injury, a bruised rib cage, and an intestinal virus. He has also had several relapses in his quest to remain sober, most recently in February of this past year.

Normally, a player who has produced as Hamilton has could expect a sizable contract on the open market. However, he is not the typical player. Given his track record, teams are seemingly leery of giving Hamilton the type of contract that Prince Fielder or Albert Pujols received recently. In fact, the Rangers are rumored to have only offered him a three year deal, which may further dissuade other teams from giving Hamilton the type of deal that he is seeking.

While Josh Hamilton has been a star since receiving regular playing time with the Rangers, he may also be the free agent with the highest risk factor this year. For the price that it will likely take to secure his services, Hamilton is unlikely to provide a positive return on the investment. Given the abuse his body has taken, he may well age much more rapidly than the typical player at his age. Another factor against Hamilton is the number of quality center fielders that are available via free agency. Michael Bourn and B.J. Upton, while not the same players that Hamilton is, would both likely to cost less than he would. Add in possible trade targets Justin Upton and Dexter Fowler, and there are a number of options available.

Even though Hamilton is unlikely to receive the type of contract he desires, all it takes is one team desperate enough to make a splash, and willing to ignore the potential pitfalls inherent with a player like Hamilton, to make that type of offer. However, whichever team signs Hamilton should keep in mind the phrase Caveat Emptor – let the buyer beware.