“Maybe you put Profar in a deal and get Price plus something else because you’re trading six years for three years.”

Law admits that he doubts that a deal like that would possibly happen because Price’s “perceived value” is much higher than Profar’s “perceived value” and “perceived value is that reason why a lot of trades materialize. But in Law’s opinion, Profar’s “true value” is actually higher than Price between his abilities and the fact that he has six more years under team control as opposed to Price’s three. Law does make a good point about “perceived value” and how it plays a role in trades. But does Profar really have more value than Price at this point in his career? Not a chance.

Jurickson Profar turns just 20 next month and has already made the major leagues, appearing in 9 regular season games for the Rangers and even successfully pinch-hitting in their one-game Wild Card playoff versus the Orioles. Before he cracked the Rangers’ MLB roster, he had an incredible season at Double-A, managing a .281/.368/.452 line with 26 doubles, 7 triples, 14 homers, 62 RBI, 16 of 20 stolen bases, and a 79-66 strikeout to walk ratio in 126 games and 562 plate appearances. Profar has a chance to be one of the best players in baseball someday thanks to true 5-tool ability: outstanding bat speed, patience, pitch recognition, the power potential to hit 30 home runs someday, well above-average speed, and great defense in terms of both glove and arm at shortstop or wherever the Rangers decide to put him on the diamond. But before he gets there, he has an extremely long way to go and there’s no guarantee of anything. Profar has a grand total of 18 plate appearances above Double-A and much of his potential is based of the fact that he’s so young and only 6’0″, 165 with continued room to muscle up and add more power. We can’t possibly know what’s going to happen. He sounds so good- how could he possibly fall apart? Even moving past the concerns for any prospect like injuries and struggles to adjust to major league pitching, Profar has confronted issues of trying too hard to hit the ball in the air, and despite his great strike zone awareness for such a young player, he has been too aggressive on pitchers within the zone, leading to too much weak contact for a player with his bat speed. That doesn’t by any means indicate that Profar isn’t going to be a very good player in the major leagues and quite possibly a superstar, but there’s certainly quite a bit of risk for him and he’s no sure thing at all. How in the world is a player like that worth more than David Price?

At the end of the day, the Rays would love to get Jurickson Profar if and when they trade David Price. But are they going to even consider for a second trading Price for Profar? Absolutely not. We had this same discussion relentlessly regarding Wil Myers, and while Profar is better than Myers, Price is also quite a bit better than James Shields and Price would almost certainly yield Profar and more from the Rangers should a trade between the Rays and Rangers come together. This is all hypothetical for right now- the Rays are set to keep Price for 2013- but if the Rays decide to trade Price next offseason, get ready for a highly-contested debate surrounding Profar’s value and a final trade that elicits as much controversy as any in baseball history.

Dominican Winter League: Aguilas Cibaenas 8, Gigantes del Cibao 6 (11 innings)

Cardinals top prospect Oscar Taveras won this one for Cibaenas with a go-ahead 2-run homer in the 11th but four different Rays appeared in the game, two for each side. Omar Luna had a breakout game for the Aguilas, going 3 for 6 with a run scored. The 3 hits were his first hits in 4 games, so nice to see him break out of that funk. Tim Corcoran started for Cibaenas and didn’t pitch so well, going 4.1 innings allowing 4 runs on 7 hits, striking out 3 while walking 1, but he actually had a 12-5 groundball to flyball ratio and got extremely unlucky that so many of the groundballs he allowed went for hits. Rhyne Hughes went 1 for 5 with a double and a run scored for Cibao while Jhonny Nunez managed to work around 2 hits to toss a scoreless inning of relief for the Gigantes.

Tigres del Licey 5, Leones del Escogido 4

This game would have been something to behold. Enny Romero came in for the 9th for Escogido in a 4-4 game and got a strikeout and groundout to begin the inning before Rangers top prospect Jurickson Profar ended the game with a walk-off solo homer to left to give Licey a 5-4 win. You win some, you lose some Enny- and it had to be awfully tough for Romero to come into a tie game in the 9th inning after he started 23 of his 25 appearances in the 2012 minor league season. Profar’s homer gave the win in the game to Jesus Colome, who recorded the final out of the top pof the 9th for Licey. Willy Aybar also went 1 for 4 with a run scored for Escogido while Juan Miranda went 0 for 3 with a sac fly for Licey.

Mexican Pacific League: Yaquis de Obregon 3, Mayos de Navojoa 2 (13 innings)

More late-inning heroics in this one as ex-big leaguer Doug Clark slammed a walk-off blast or Obregon in the 13th. Wes Bankston went 0 for 4 for Navojoa but walked twice and now has a 13-14 strikeout to walk ratio on the season, impressive for anyone but especially for a player who has been hitting for nice power.

Venezuelan Winter League: Aguilas del Zulia 10, Bravos de Margarita 3

This one was actually another close game until Zulia pulled away with 5 runs in the top of the 9th. Sean Burroughs went 3 for 4 with a double and a run sored for Margarita while Ryan Reid, who left the Rays organization to sign with the Pirates as a minor league free agent, tossed a perfect 9th with 2 strikeouts and groundout for Zulia. Both Burroughs and Reid are really playing well, with Burroughs hitting .343 in 76 at-bats on the VWL season and Reid posting a 2.08 ERA and a 9-1 strikeout to walk ratio in 9 appearances.

Leones del Caracas 5, Navegantes de Magallanes 4

Caracas came back from a 4-0 deficit to stun the first place Navegatnes, with Nationals prospect Carlos Rivero getting the comeback started with a huge 3-run home run. Henry Wrigley went 1 for 3 with a walk and a run scored for Caracas while for Magallanes, Leslie Anderson went 1 for 4 with an RBI, Erold Andrus went 1 for 4 with a triple, and Chris Nowak went 0 for 3 with a walk.

Elvis Andrus is one of the top defensive shortstops in baseball and is a solid .275 career hitter with good plate discipline, leading to a .342 OBP, and great speed. The problem is that his power is negligible- his career SLG is just .353 with only 14 home runs in 2591 plate appearances. The lack of power had led to Andrus being a below-average overall offensive player each of the past four years, managing just an 84 OPS+ for his career with his career-high being his 91 OPS+ this season. The OPS+ for AL shortstops was 85 in 2012, so even for a shortstop Andrus is just an average offensive player. Andrus is also not great at stealing bases. He’s 123 for 166 in stolen base attempts for his career, a solid 74% success rate, but he was just 21 of 31 this season, a 68% clip. The good news is that Andrus plays outstanding defense, has great speed, and turned just 24 in August so his offense could still be improving. However, he’s not special offensively with his completely lack of power really weighing him down, he can’t consistently translate his speed to stolen bases, and he has just two more years of team control. Elvis Andrus is still a very good overall player because his defense is so superlative, his offense is solid, and even if he doesn’t steal as many bases as he should, he’s an outstanding baseunner. But he certainly has his limitations and heading to a place like Tropicana Field, he would only be worse.

Jurickson Profar has done nothing in the big leagues. He homered in his first big league at-bat and went 2 for 4 in his first game, but he went just 2 for 17 overall before going 1 for 1 in the AL Wild Card game and that’s his entire body of work in the big leagues. At Triple-A… oh wait, Profar hasn’t played a single game at Triple-A. He was outstanding at Double-A this season while playing the entire season at just 19 years old, posting a .281/.368/.452 line with 26 doubles, 7 triples, 14 homers, 62 RBI, 16 out of 20 stolen bases, and 79 strikeouts versus 66 walks in 126 games and 562 plate appearances. By the way, he also hasn’t played a single game at High-A after skipping from Low-A in 2011 to Double-A in 2012. The major disadvantage with Profar is that he is so inexperienced. 18 plate appearances above Double-A doesn’t exactly inspire confidence that he’s big league ready right now. In addition, as I discussed way back in January, there is also some concern about the amount of balls that Profar hits weakly in the air. But Profar undeniably has the talent to be a much better overall player than Andrus has been the past four years.

Profar has just been about identical to Andrus in terms of batting average in his minor league career, hitting .276 compared to Andrus .275 career average in both the majors and minors. But he has been solidly better in on-base percentage, posting a .367 mark compared to Andrus’ .342 in the minors and .343 in the majors (wow, Andrus is so consistent), and in terms of power there’s no comparison as Profar has managed a .450 mark to Andrus’ .361 in the minors and .353 in the majors. Andrus is a solid offensive shortstop. Profar has the ability to be a well above-average offensive shortstop, hitting for average, getting on base, and chipping in 20-homer power with a nice amount of doubles and triples. But in every other facet of the game, Profar will never be up to the level that Andrus has proven himself to be. Profar is fast but not as fast as Andrus, not a threat to steal 35 bases like Andrus has done twice and not nearly as good of a baserunner, and defensively he’s an above-average at shortstop as opposed to one of the best of the game. Nevertheless, Profar has the ability to be a much better all-around player than Andrus and a superstar as opposed to just a very good player. Really, though, we’re trying to compare apples and oranges here- Profar’s upside to Andrus’ firmly-established abilities. Profar is certainly no guarantee to reach his potential.

It is very difficult to compare Andrus and Profar as players because Andrus is a four-year veteran while Profar just got his first big league cup of coffee this season. But the tiebreaker is the number of years that they’ll be under team control. Andrus has just two years left under contract before heading to free agency while Profar will have at least five years under team control. For the Rangers, that could certainly extend Andrus if they would like, but other teams like the Rays may not have that option. Both Elvis Andrus and Jurickson Profar are excellent players, but at the end of the day Profar has more value in a trade despite all the risk involved with him thanks to his upside and the time he has left before free agency. A team needing a shortstop would be thrilled landing either of these players. But while plenty of teams will call if the Rangers make Andrus available, every team in baseball will inquire if Profar is put on the market.