• Price was 10-2, 2.51 in 16 starts against AL East teams, representing four of the league’s top eight offensive teams by on-base plus slugging percentage, or OPS.
• Price was 13-3, 2.27 in 19 games (and 62 percent of his innings) against teams that finished .500 or better, matching Weaver for the most such wins. (Verlander was 8-4, 2.63.)
• In 23 of Price’s 31 starts (74.2 percent), he went seven or more innings, most in the majors. (Verlander did so in only 21 of 33, 64 percent; Weaver 16 of 30, 53 percent.)
• In 23 starts, Price allowed two earned runs or fewer, most in the AL. (Weaver and Verlander each had 22.)
• He started 15 games against teams that made the playoffs, and was 9-3 in them. He was 10-2 in the AL East.
• In his final 18 starts, as the Rays were scrambling toward the payoffs, Price finished 12-1.
• Measured by opponents’ OPS, Price faced the fifth-toughest slate of hitters of any AL starter this year (according to Baseball Prospectus). The aggregate OPS (on-base percentage plus slugging percentage) of the hitters who faced Price was .763, more than four percent better than the overall AL average of 731. Verlander ran the 15th-toughest gauntlet among qualifying starters, Jered Weaver 29th of the 36 pitchers who tossed 162 innings in the Junior Circuit.

A main argument for Verlander is that not only did he throw more innings and have more strikeouts than Price, leading the league in both categories, but he also led the league in ERA+, ERA compared to the league average adjusted to ballpark, 160 to 149, meaning that Verlander was 11% better than the league average in ERA than Price was. Considering Verlander was better than Price was better in ERA adjusted to ballpark, strikeouts, and innings pitched, how could he not win the Cy Young? Here are two simple but interesting stats that give Price a clear edge over Verlander.

• Although Verlander edges Price in FIP (3.o2 to 3.12), Price was better in xFIP (3.12 to 3.31) and SIERA (3.16 to 3.26). Verlander actually needed more help from luck and his defense to put up his numbers than Price did- Price actually gets a boost from the Rays’ inconsistent defense in 2012 in this regard.
• Tropicana Field is more of a pitcher’s ballpark that Comerica Park in Detroit, but the difference between home and road splits for Verlander were much more significant than Price. Verlander went 9-2 with a 1.65 ERA at home compared to just an 8-6 record and a 3.57 ERA on the  road while Price went 7-2 with a 1.81 ERA at home compared to a 13-3 record and a 3.16 ERA on the road. In terms of OPS+ against, Verlander held hitters to just a 53 sOPS+ at home compared to 77 on the road, while Price was even better at home, coming in at a 46 sOPS+, although he was at an 82 OPS+ on the road. Averaging the ERAs and OPS against, Price beats Verlander 2.49 to 2.61, and he edges him in OPS+ 64 to 65. Verlander’s edge in ERA+ is misleading- he actually got more of a boost from his home ballpark than Price.

How does Price feel about being in the running for the Cy Young? Leach had the details.

“I’m definitely excited about the possibility of winning it,” Price said. “My teammates played well behind me all year and put me in the position I’m in right now, and I’m very appreciative of their efforts. … We played very well on my day, I feel like [considering] the competition and the schedule we had, that I threw the ball extremely well.”

But what about Fernando Rodney? Rodney is coming off arguably the greatest season ever by a relief pitcher, saving 48 games while posting an unbelievable 0.60 ERA, the best in history for a reliever minimum 50 innings. Why isn’t he getting more Cy Young support? Paul Hagen of the Rays’ official site talked to Braves special advisor Jim Fegrosi and Rays Executive Vice President of Baseball Operations Andrew Friedman, and both of them thought they he wasn’t getting his fair share of respect.

“He had the greatest year that any relief pitcher could ever possibly have,” Braves special assistant Jim Fregosi said bluntly.

“I’m not one generally to think that a reliever should be considered for the Cy Young,” admitted Rays executive vice president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman. “But when you set the record for the lowest ERA in the history of baseball, I don’t know how you’re not in the top three.

Rodney could very well finish fourth in the Cy Young voting, but it’s disappointing that he wasn’t even a finalist for the award.  Friedman, predictably, thought Rodney should have been right behind Price.

“I’m biased, but I feel like our guys should be 1-2. Both David and Fernando were tremendous.”

Now that the regular season is over it’s time to ask. Who wins the 2012 AL Cy Young award? Does David Price have a legitimate chance to win it this year? No doubt he has had an amazing season while all but carrying the Rays on his back this year, aside from the workhorse James Shields’ performances as well. In my opinion there are 5 legitimate ‘candidates’ for this season’s award, and even 5 could be stretching it. I will list all 5 below, with stat lines, in order of how I view the BBWAA (Baseball Writers’ Association of America) will likely vote.

1. Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers
2. David Price, Tampa Bay Rays
3. Fernando Rodney, Tampa Bay Rays
4. Jered Weaver, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
5. Chris Sale, Chicago White Sox

*denotes lead AL in category for starters, **denotes run support/game only calculated for starters

I basically see it as a three man race at this time. While Sale had a great year of his own, he did carry the highest ERA, highest batting average against, and second lowest IP. I don’t see Sale placing above fifth in the voting. Weaver is also interesting, but again in my opinion, is on the outside looking in with a potential fourth place finish with higher numbers across the board and the best run support. I see this as a three man race between Verlander, Price, & Rodney.

Now Rodney had a legendary season, breaking Eck’s record for lowest ERA for closer’s in a season while going 48 of 50 in save opportunities. Rodney’s WHIP was also way below career averages for him but still kept close to his career average of K/9 at 9.0. New age stat trackers would also note Rodney having the lowest WAR of all five candidates. So at best I see him finishing no better than third unless voters determine that the criteria for the Cy Young Award is worth giving to the greatest season ever for a closer. Now I know what you’re going to say, the award criteria is for the best pitcher in each league. But that begs the question, could he continue that on a 200+ IP throughout a season?  There have been times when a closer has won in years past, most notably the AL Cy Young went to Eck when he posted a 1.91 ERA, 7-1 record, and 51 saves in 1992, but did not win the year he posted a .61 ERA with 48 saves.  Also the 2003 NL Cy Young was awarded to Eric Gagne when he posted a 1.20 ERA with an incredible 55 for 55 in save opportunities so it’s not unheard of but unlikely.

Price has a good a chance as anyone for this year’s Cy Young. Price was tied for the league lead in wins at 20, did have the lowest ERA among qualifying starters, broke the 200+ IP mark, and had the second highest (6.4) WAR among the top five candidates. New age statistical followers would probably not vote Price to win. I see more traditionalists voting for Price based on the number of wins and lower ERA. Here’s to hoping the traditionalists win out the vote this year.

Verlander is who I see winning the award yet again. He had the highest IP of all the candidates at 238.1, second lowest ERA, highest WAR and three fewer victories than Price. He also pitched his team to a division win, even if in a weaker division. Verlander also had the lowest run support of the top five candidates. I know what all the skeptics are saying…he had Prince Fielder, he had Miguel Cabrera (Congrats on being the first Triple Crown Winner since 67’), etc. It’s the Cy Young, aka. the award for the best pitcher, not the MVP race.

I do sincerely hope to see David Price win it this year. Even though he finally was able to put it all together I believe he will end up only second best. Here’s to hoping.

I’m happy that I threw strikes!! I think that I threw a total of 5 strikes in the bullpen….we need to start a rally now…#asg#letsgoAL

— David Price (@DAVIDprice14) July 11, 2012

Yeah, Price actually tweeted that right after he pitched as MLB allowed players to tweet during the game for a change. Here’s a picture of Price tweeting.

.@RaysBaseball All-Star @DAVIDprice14 tweets live during the 2012 #ASG on @MLBONFOX. twitter.com/MLBFanCave/sta…

— MLB Fan Cave (@MLBFanCave) July 11, 2012

Fernando Rodney tossed the 9th in what was extremely far from a save situation, down 8-0, but he did the Rays proud as well, tossing a 12-pitch perfect inning with 3 groundouts. Two pitchers, Verlander and the Rangers’ Matt Harrison, allowed all the runs in the game, and the AL managed just 6 hits. Come on guys! Put the entire Rays team in there and they at least get 1 run! Maybe next year (probably not).

Not all of baseball was happy with the Rays on Tuesday. Commissioner Bud Selig and union chief Michael Weiner talked about the Rays’ attention, as quoted by Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. First, Selig.

“What I’ve said to you in the past, I’ll say to you again, and I’ve said this to Stu quite a bit. I’ve been through a lot of these things over the last 20 years, actually the last 40 years, and I understand that, but, look, they’ve run a great operation, they’re a very competitive organization, they have very competitive teams. As I study the attendance every day, looking where they are, to see that they’re No. 29, I think it is, in attendance is not, is, it’s inexcusable. Nobody can defend that.

“This is a very competitive baseball team.  I know they’ve had a lot of injuries, so on and so forth, and they’ve missing Longoria and all that is true. But the average major-league attendance is between 31,000 and 32,000 and if my memory is serving me well this morning, it’s about 19,000 something, Tampa’s attendance. Now if they were a club in last place every year the last five years you’d say, well, look, after all, you are what you are and you’ve got to do better.

“It’s disappointing. And I know that people down there, some people, will be offended. Not the fans, not the people who go every day and I know they have great intensity, the people there. As all of you know, I watch a lot of games every day, sometimes all 15 of them, and I pay great attention not only to what’s happening on the field, but to the attendance.

“So to use my father’s old line, nothing is ever good or bad except by comparison. I’ll rest my case. It’s disappointing. And I’m concerned.”

You never want to hear your team talked about like that, but it’s not necessarily a bad thing. The Rays need a new stadium to combat these attendance issues and the more unrest there is with the commissioner’s office, the more that process may be facilitated. Here’s what Weiner had to say.

“We want every team to be successful. Not every team can win the World Series every year or win the division, but we want every team to be successful both on the field and on the bottom line. We may have our differences with some of the methods that Tampa employs as far as union versus management, but you have to have respect for what they’ve done with a consistently competitive team they have put on the field and the way they’ve gone about doing their business. And I know that some of the players understandably have expressed some frustration. They enjoy playing there, they enjoy playing for Joe (Maddon), they enjoy playing with their teammates and they competition of playing in the American League East. They’ve never run from it, which to their credit is a reflection of leadership. .. But in the end they have a contract with the Tampa Bay Rays, they play in a certain facility, they play in a certain location, metropolitan area, and those guys are going to play as hard as they can.”

The Rays are a small market team. But they don’t complain. They don’t say “we’re not going to win because you’re not coming to the ballpark.” They just do whatever they need to do to put together contending teams and somehow every year it all works out. That’s a different experience than so many others in baseball. We wish the Rays had a bigger payroll and could the bigger sign free agents, at least occasionally, but because of the circumstances surrounding their team, they have to operate the way they operate. And it works. Is it the ideal? No. If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. But we hope that while the uncertainty persists in the public eye, things are happening behind the scenes and eventually circumstances will improve.

A couple other news items: Jeff Salazar, who looked like he made the Rays out of spring training, has been released from the organization per a tweet from the Durham Bulls, and Taylor Guerrieri had a good day at the golf course.

Just made an Eagle from 40 yds out #thatsAfirst twitter.com/TaylorG1201/st…

— Taylor Guerrieri (@TaylorG1201) July 10, 2012