Pirates 3, Rays 2

Several Rays pitchers delivered outstanding pitching in this one, but a bullpen collapse put them in a deficit and a late rally wasn’t enough as the Rays fell 3-2 to the Pirates. Roberto Hernandez started in his unofficial Rays debut, working a perfect inning, before Jeff Niemann, Hernandez’s principal competition for the Rays’ 5th starter job, was even better, striking out 2 as he worked a 1-2-3 inning of his own. Then Fernando Rodney, who is getting ready for the World Baseball Classic, entered the game and made hitters look silly, striking out all three batters he faced to make it nine up, nine down for Rays pitching. But in the 4th, non-roster invitee J.D. Martin ran into some trouble, allowing a single, a walk, a force play at second base, and then an RBI groundout to give Pittsburgh a 1-0 lead. Martin responded by forcing three groundouts in the 5th, but the damage was compounded in the 6th. Mike Montgomery‘s debut in a Rays uniform was a total disaster as he allowed four straight hits and 2 runs to begin his outing, although he was helped out by an outfield assist by Rich Thompson at second base. Montgomery was able to hold the damage there, allowing 5 hits and a walk in his inning of work, but holding the Pirates to only the two runs. Hopefully the end of his outing and not the start will be what he builds on moving forward. The Rays finished the game extremely strong, with lefties Enny Romero and Adam Liberatore working around a trio of hits to toss scoreless ball the last three inning and outfield prospect Kevin Kiermaier coming up with a clutch 2-out, 2-run double, but the 3-run deficit proved to be too much to overcome. The Rays were held to just 4 hits in this game, including one each from Yunel Escobar and Kelly Johnson in their first game in a Rays uniform, but the three MLB pitchers they threw out there were dominant, and they did show the type of late-inning resiliency we’ve come to expect from the Rays.

Rays 4, Red Sox 3

The Rays clearly sent their b-squad to this game, not sending to the mound a single regular pitcher from the 2012 team, but the few veterans played well, several rookies stepped up, and Leslie Anderson came through when it mattered most as the Rays upset a more recognizable Red Sox team 4-3. Right-handed pitching prospect Alex Colome started and worked around a walk to toss a scoreless inning, before Brandon Gomes, trying to reestablish himself in the Rays’ bullpen with his back feeling good, struck out 1 in his perfect frame. Lefty pitching prospect Felipe Rivero struck out 1 and walked 1 as he kept to scoreless run going, pretty impressive considering he was down at Low-A last year, but the most impressive pitcher of the game may have been Josh Lueke, coming off a horrific 2012 season that including an 18.90 in the major leagues, who tossed 2 scoreless innings allowing just a hit and a walk and allowing just one ball out of the infield. On the offensive side, the Rays jumped out to a 1-0 lead in the top of the 1st, sandwiching a walk and a hit-by-pitch around a Desmond Jennings single before Ryan Roberts came through with a sac fly. Then in the 3rd, Jennings manufactured a run all by himself, doubling and then stealing third base and scoring when Jarrod Saltalamacchia‘s throw went into the outfield. Things got sketchy in the bottom of the 7th, when righty Marquis Fleming allowed a 2-run homer to Red Sox shortstop prospect Jose Iglesias, but the Rays got a big 2-run shot of their own in the following half-inning, when Leslie Anderson drilled a go-ahead 2-run homer, and Matt Buschmann was able to hold the Red Sox to only an RBI single in 9th by another Red Sox top shortstop prospect, Xander Bogaerts, in two innings of work to finish the game as the Rays held on to win 4-3. Jennings was dynamic, going 2 for 2 with a stolen base and a run scored, Anderson came up huge in the clutch, and the young pitching really stepped up as the Rays were able to come away with a satisfying win.

Left Field

Cody Rogers, who turned 24 in September, is not exactly at his high point as prospect right now after a tough 2012 followed by a 50-game suspension for next season after he refused to undergo a drug test. The struggle of a season and the need to take whatever we he took may have gone hand and hand. In any event, Rogers, who was a 7th round pick by the Rays back in 2009, did not have the type 2012 he was hoping for, managing just a .244/.312/.343 line with 12 doubles, 6 triples, 4 homers, 38 RBI, 22 of 26 stolen bases, and 99 strikeouts against 30 walks in 112 games and 413 plate appearances. Rogers, if he can overcome this suspension, is an athletic 6’2″, 175 outfielder with some interesting tools. Rogers shows above-average speed that allows him to steal bases and profile in both center and left field (he differed to Ty Morrison, Kevin Kiermaier, and Mikie Mahtook and played primarily left field), and he also flashes of nice raw power (he had 11 triples and 12 homers in 2011). However, Rogers three potential above-average tools are counteracted by a series of issues: below average patience and pitch recognition, a swing that gets too long as he sells out for power, struggles pitching up the ball versus left-handed pitching, and defensively he has a below-average arm. Before the suspension it was unlikely things were ever going to come together, and now that’s even more the case. Rogers has enough tools that the Rays will wait on him for now, but the suspension takes his prospect stock, which was already down after a poor season, down another notch.

Steven Tinoco, who will turn 24 in April, was a 34th round pick in 2010 out of Cal State Long Beach, Evan Longoria‘s alma mater, and played a super-utility role for the Stone Crabs in 2012. Tinoco had a halfway-decent season, posting a .281/.318/.323 line with 8 doubles, 1 homer, 27 RBI, 3 of 4 stolen bases, and 24 strikeouts against 16 walks in 83 games and 324 plate appearances while playing first base, second base, third base, left field, right field, and pitcher. In his three professional seasons, Tinoco hit just 1 homer each year, but his batting average stayed very stable as well and actually went up a bit, going from .274 to .277 to .281 the past three years. Tinoco is 6’0″, 200 and played first base in college, but he’s a contact oriented hitter who has never shown any power. According to Minor League Central, 57.9% of Tinoco’s batted balls were groundballs, the highest ratio in the Florida State League minimum 200 plate appearances, and that’s especially alarming considering he isn’t fast. Tinoco didn’t strike out at all but his patience was very poor as well as he walked in just 4.9% of his plate appearances, and his indiscriminate approach prevented him from hitting the ball with any authority. If Tinoco is going anywhere as a professional baseball player, that has to change. Defensively, Tinoco has a strong arm and halfway-decent range and is a good defensive first baseman and left fielder who can fake all the other positions. He wasn’t so successful off the mound, allowing a 6.75 ERA in 3 relief appearances and 4 innings pitched, striking out 1 and walking 1 as well. Tinoco is a utility player at best and doesn’t seem to have a great chance of getting there, but it’s great to see him trying every possible avenue to help the team and keep his career going.

Kiermaier will never be a power hitter but did show improved gap power in the Arizona Fall League. (Credit: Flickr user chrishwish)

Centerfield

Kevin Kiermaier, who will turn 23 in April, was the Rays’ 31st round pick in 2010 but has been great since the moment he entered the Rays system and the type of player that the Rays can’t get enough of. Kiermaier had a pair of stints on the disabled list but was excellent when healthy, starting the season with the Stone Crabs and finishing the season at Triple-A before tearing up the Arizona Fall League. In the regular season, Kiermaier managed a .260/.363/.359 line with 7 doubles, 6 triples, 13 RBI, 10 of 14 stolen bases, and 41 strikeouts versus 29 walks in 63 games and 230 plate appearances, 212 of which came with Charlotte. In the Arizona Fall League working to make up for some of the lost time, Kiermaier posted a .348/.444/.493 line with 6 doubles, 2 triples, 7 RBI, 7 of 7 stolen bases, and a 12-12 strikeout to walk ratio in 23 games and 82 plate appearances. Kiermaier, an athletic 6’1″, 200, doesn’t feature great power but does just about everything else well. He has well above-average speed that allows him to swipe a few bases, play a great centerfield, and possibly most importantly, beat out a lot of groundballs and bunts. He’ll never be anywhere near a home run power, but he has shown of flashes of gap power and showcased that in the Arizona Fall League, albeit in a very small sample. Kiermaier swings and misses a little too often for a player without much power, but his plate discipline is excellent and he does everything he can to get on base. Kiermaier is also a left-handed hitter with a very little platoon split, hitting .348 against both righties and lefties in the Arizona Fall League (although the OPS difference was .966 versus .879) and was actually a touch better against lefties on the regular season (.743 OPS against .699). Defensively, Kiermaier combines his great range in centerfield with an above-average arm and is a strong defender at all three outfield positions. The Rays named him their organizational Defensive Player of the Year despite all the time he missed, and you can’t blame them. Kiermaier fits the fourth outfielder profile to a T as long as his injury problems are behind him, and he could appear in that type of a role for the Rays before long, maybe as soon as next September. Kiermaier filled in at Triple-A at the end of the season and went 3 for 12, and he could skip over Double-A and start the season back there with a strong showing in spring training.

Right Field

Mikie Mahtook, who turned 23 at the end of November, was the second of the Rays’ 10 first and supplemental round picks in the 2011 MLB Draft, and he was supposed to spend just a short time with the Stone Crabs before moving up to Double-A, Triple-A, and maybe even the big leagues by the end of the season. Instead, Mahtook was in Charlotte until late July and then struggled after his promotion to Double-A. In 131 games and 555 plate appearances between Charlotte and Double-A Montgomery, Mahtook posted a .277/.342/.415 line with 25 doubles, 8 triples, 9 homers, 62 RBI, 23 of 32 stolen bases, and 102 strikeouts versus 40 walks. Mahtook was really not that bad, but what stands out immediately, especially for a hitter considered to be advanced, was his strikeout to walk ratio. Mahtook, who fits the same physical profile as Kiermaier at 6’1″, 200, stood out before the draft as a 5-tool talent, featuring quick and compact swing, solid power, above-average speed, good range defensively, and an average arm, and he also made his mark at LSU for his passion every time he took the field. We saw all of Mahtook’s abilities come into play, but a lack of patience and bizarre struggles versus left-handed pitching. Mahtook didn’t strike out an awful lot in 2012, whiffing at an 18.4% clip, but he walked at only a 7.2% mark in 2012 and that not only limited his defense but the quality of his contact as well as he hit a lot of balls weakly in the air. Why did it happen? His pitch recognition is fine, but he was overaggressive and didn’t do a good job finding pitches to drive, perhaps as a result of the pressure on him to perform. Mahtook is known as an emotional player, and he may have been too hard on himself after a rough April. Mahtook walked more than he struck out in his last year at LSU, so the hope is that he can relax and get his plate discipline on track to help him get on base more and hit for additional power. More strange was Mahtook’s platoon split in 2012. Mahtook hit to a nice .292/.367/.451 line against righties but just .253/.302/.354 against lefties, proving better in every regard against same-side pitchers. His strikeout to walk ratio, though, was slightly better versus lefties, 2.27 to 1 compared to 2.6 to 1 (lower is better), so that’s hopefully a sign of things to come. While he had his share of struggles offensively, Mahtook did play fine defense, playing primarily right field with a fair amount of time in centerfield and combining for 13 outfield assists between the two positions. Mikie Mahtook failed to live up to the expectations set for him in 2012, but the Rays still really like his abilities and hope that with a full year of pro ball under his belt he’s primed for a breakout 2013 as he starts the season back at Double-A.

Just among the outfielders we discussed today, we could be looking at an outfield starter and fourth outfielder type that could make an impact in Tampa Bay over the next two years. Kiermaier and Mahtook both passed were promoted from Charlotte to higher levels over the course of the season, and a productive year next year could mean a trip to the big leagues in September. Everyone has kinks to work out in their games, but their abilities are real and the Rays know that they could be major pieces of future teams.

For more of our thoughts on the Rays’ prospects at every level of the minors, check out our Minor League Affiliates Analysis page here at RCG.

The 40-man roster for big league teams is important for two reasons. The first is that you can only call-up players from your 40-man roster to the big leagues and if a player is not on it, you have to make room for them on the 40-man. The second is that players on the 40-man roster remain under team control- they are not eligible for the Rule 5 Draft and cannot become minor league free agents. The Rays need to figure out which of their prospects belong on their 40-man roster between their abilities to contribute to the team and their chances of being selected in the Rule 5 Draft.

Currently, the Rays’ 40-man roster stands at 34, per the Rays’ official website. The re-signing of Joel Peralta, which is official in everything but name, brings that total to 35. Here they are.

MLB Starting Pitchers (7): RHP Chris Archer, RHP Alex Cobb, RHP Jeremy Hellickson, LHP Matt Moore, RHP Jeff Niemann, LHP David Price, RHP James Shields

MLB Relief Pitchers (5): RHP Burke Badenhop, RHP Wade Davis, LHP Jake McGee, RHP Joel Peralta, RHP Fernando Rodney

Questionable/Minor League Pitchers (7): RHP Alex Colome, RHP Dane De La Rosa, LHP Frank De Los Santos, RHP Brandon Gomes, RHP Josh Lueke, LHP Cesar Ramos, LHP Alexander Torres

Catchers (5): Robinson Chirinos, Chris Gimenez, Jose Lobaton, Jose Molina, Stephen Vogt

Infielders (5): MI Reid Brignac, MI Elliot Johnson, 3B Evan Longoria, 2B Ryan Roberts, INF Sean Rodriguez

Outfielders: Ben Francisco, Sam Fuld, Brandon Guyer, Desmond Jennings, Matthew Joyce, Ben Zobrist

This roster has clear needs- specifically the lack of a first baseman and a clear third starter in the outfield with Ben Zobrist slated to play shortstop- but let’s break it down as it is right now. Even taking possible trades out of the picture, we can pinpoint a few players whose roster spots are up in the air. The most obvious one is Ben Francisco, who is arbitration-eligible after making over 1.5 million dollars in 2012, and he’s a clear non-tender candidate unless the Rays acquire not a single outfielder over the next month, and even if they do, Brandon Guyer looks like he could be just as good as Francisco while making the league minimum. Other than Francisco, you can look in that “Questionable Pitchers” row- they’re not just questionable in terms of minors or majors but also their roster spots. Colome is a nice prospect, De Los Santos was just added to the roster, Gomes was a solid reliever back in 2011, and Ramos seems like a lock to make the big league roster at this point, but De La Rosa and Lueke are fringy relievers, although both feature good arms, and they could certainly go if the Rays run out of 40-man space. Torres is a prospect with electric stuff, but he was also wildly inconsistent in 2012 and the Rays may run out of patience. To a lesser extent, Reid Brignac‘s 40-man roster spot is in jeopardy, but the Rays don’t have a spare infielder to replace him at this point. Counting Brignac, there are 31 locks for the 40-man roster.

Who will the Rays consider adding to the 40-man roster? We can’t think about which players the Rays will acquire this offseason, but the Rays have several players who will have to be considered for the 40-man to protect them from the Rule 5 Draft. The basic rules for eligibility for the Rule 5 Draft are 3 years in the system as a draft pick out of college, 4 years in the system as a draft pick out of high school, and approximately 5 years in the system as an international signee (although things get more touchy because exact signing dates are often unclear). Who are the eligible players for the Rays to consider protecting?

The two locks to be added to the 40-man roster are Tim Beckham, who the Rays selected first overall in 2008, and Hak-Ju Lee, one of the Rays’ top shortstop prospect. Beckham disappointed in 2012, managing just a .256/.325/.361 line At Triple-A and missing time after a drug of abuse suspension, but he still has interesting hitting and power potential and should see big league time in 2013. Lee, meanwhile, is an excellent defensive shortstop and posted a .261/.336/.360 line at Double-A Montgomery with 37 stolen bases. His offensive game is still developing, but his defense is outstanding and if he can get on track at the plate he could be a very good major league player. Beyond Beckham and Lee, things get less clear.

Lefty Kyle Lobstein was selected the round after Beckham in 2008 and had a solid season at Double-A Montgomery in 2012, going 8-7 with a 4.06 ERA, an 8.1 K/9, a 4.3 BB/9, and a 0.9 HR/9 in 27 starts and 144 innings pitched. Lobstein, 6’3″, 200, throws a fastball in the 90-91 MPH range to go along with a solid curveball that shows flashes and a changeup. He was once a promising prospect, but his stock has fallen considerably since he was drafted. It doesn’t look like the Rays will seriously consider adding him to the 40-man, and he may not be a player considered for the Rule 5 Draft either.

Outfielder Ty Morrison was the Rays’ 4th round pick in 2008 and was another player with a solid but overall unimpressive season primarily at Montgomery, posting a .269/.341/.373 line with 25 doubles, 10 triples, 3 homers, 49 RBI, 31 of 41 stolen bases, and 117 strikeouts against 44 walks in 134 games and 609 plate appearances. Morrison stands out most for his speed but shows potential at the plate with nice bat speed but has never shown power and needs work on his patience as well. Morrison moves well in centerfield but does not have a great arm. Morrison seems unlikely to be more than a 4th outfielder at that point, but the Rays don’t have a spare outfielder on their roster at this point and Morrison could get a look both by the Rays to be added to their 40-man, and in the Rule 5 Draft if they don’t.

Right-hander Scott Shuman was selected in the 39th round by the Rays back in 2009 and was horrific at Montgomery in 2012, striking out a ridiculous 14.0 batters per 9 innings in 2012 but posting an 8.83 ERA as he also walked 12.2 per 9 in 29 appearances. Shuman throws a fastball that reached the upper-90′s and even a sharp slider, but his control is absolutely horrendous. Some team might give him a chance in the Rule 5 Draft, but it looks everything like they’ll stay away after he walked everybody in 2012. No chance the Rays add him to the 40-man roster this offseason.

Another right-hander, Kirby Yates, was a non-drafted free signee by the Rays in 2009 and had a good season also with the Biscuits this past season, posting a 2.65 ERA, a 12.4 K/9, a 5.2 BB/9, and a 0.5 HR/9 in 50 appearances. Yates, just 5’10″, 170, has a fastball in the 92-94 MPH range to go along with a good slider, and the Rays have sent him to the Arizona Fall League the last two seasons hoping to refine his control. Yates has his issues, but the Rays clearly like him after sending him to the AFL twice in a row and he has a reasonable chance of getting added to the 40-man roster- if he isn’t, some team may pick him up in the Rule 5 Draft hoping he can be a solid middle reliever in the big leagues.

Cole Figueroa, who was the Padres’ 6th round pick in 2008 before the Rays acquired him in the Jason Bartlett deal, is coming off a nice season primarily at Triple-A Durham, posting a .292/.362/.413 line with 23 doubles, 5 triples, 5 homers, 54 RBI, and 43 walks against 31 strikeouts in 113 games and 452 plate appearances while playing good defense at second and third base. Figueroa fits a good utility profile and maybe even has a chance to carve out a Jeff Keppinger-esque career thanks to excellent plate discipline to go along with good bat speed and versatility. He’s a poor runner without much power, but he definitely has a chance to hit more than say the trio of Elliot Johnson, Reid Brignac, and Sean Rodriguez- although he can’t handle shortstop instead in a pinch, which will likely prevent him from profiling as a starting infielder. He seems like a sure bet for the Rays’ 40-man roster this offseason.

Joseph Cruz and Nick Barnese, both right-handers selected in 2007. were both interesting prospects at one point but a combination of injuries and simply poor performance and derailed both of their careers.

Adding Beckham, Yates, and Figueroa to the 40-man roster brings the total to a maximum of 38 if they keep Francisco and the questionable pitchers on the roster. That leaves some wiggle room for players to be added based on merit alone. A couple of players for the Rays to consider are Leslie Anderson and Kevin Kiermaier. Anderson, 30, is in the final year of a 4-year deal he signed with the Rays after defecting from Cuba and had a good year at Triple-A in 2012, posting a .309/.355/.450 line with  21 doubles, 14 homers, 56 RBI, and 56 strikeouts against 26 walks in 116 games and 482 plate appearances. Anderson is a good pure hitter, but he’s a first base/left field type without the power to profile there, and a lack of patience puts his ability to hit at all in the big leagues into question. Nevertheless, the Rays have no first basemen on their roster at this point and they have to consider finally giving Anderson a chance.

Kiermaier, 22, had a lost 2012 because of injuries but had a dynamite performance in the Arizona Fall League, posting a .348/.444/.493 line with 6 doubles, 2 triples, 7 RBI, 7 of 7 stolen bases, and 12 strikeouts against 12 walks in 23 games. Kiermaier is an speedy outfielder with good defense and solid bat speed although not much power. He fits a perfect 4th outfielder archetype and will see big league time in 2012 pending more injury issues. The only question for Kiermaier is that the Rays would rather not use an option year on him this year if they don’t have to and it makes more sense to add him to the 40-man roster when they want to call him up.

Here’s your Rays 40-man roster for right now: the players listed above plus Beckham, Yates, Figueroa, Anderson, and I guess Morrison for the last spot with no reason to add Kiermaier yet. Obviously this 40-man roster is not going to cut it for the Rays next season and acquisitions will be made to improve the team. By the time the season starts, it will not be anywhere near this hard to find 40 players to go onto the roster- there will be some tough roster decisions for the Rays as the offseason progresses and the Rays will have to find the right balance between protecting their Rule 5 Draft-eligible players and finding potential contributors for next season.