Triple-A International League: Durham Bulls 2, Pawtucket Red Sox 1

Who could possibly care about the no-hitter? Kirby Yates was in serious trouble, holding a 2-0 lead with runners on 2nd and 3rd and 1 out after a pair of walks and a sacrifice bunt. The game was in serious jeopardy and what had been a magical night through and through was about to come crashing down. Then Brandon Snyder hit a flyball to deep left-center.

Rich Thompson went back to the track and made an over-the-shoulder catch for the out, allowing a run to score but putting the Bulls just 1 out away from victory. Lefty Beliveau came into the game to face Jeremy Hazelbaker, and Beliveau struck him out to end it, and the Bulls had done it, no-hitting the Red Sox in a 2-1 victory.

Jake Odorizzi started for the Bulls and quickly set the tone for his outing in the frist two inning, retiring all six batters in order but five of the six on balls in the air. Meanwhile, the Bulls took advantage of defensive miscues against knuckleballer Stephen Wright and Pawtucket, scoring on a two walks, a wild pitch, and a Brandon Snyder error all with two outs in the first inning before two singles, a swinging bunt, and a passed ball netted them a second run in the second inning. Odorizzi’s perfect game bid ended in the 3rd on a walk to Jeremy Hazelbaker, but he was caught stealing and Odorizzi retired the next two batters in order. Odorizzi retired 7 in a row from the 3rd to the 5th before Snyder drew a 2-out walk in the 5th, but Odorizzi got Hazelbaker to line out to end that frame. Then after a 1-2-3 inning in the 6th, Odorizzi allowed two 1-out walks in the 7th, but got a strikeout of Ryan Dent and a Snyder flyout to escape the jam with the no-hitter intact. Odorizzi went 7 innings allowing no runs on, of course, no hits, striking out just 3 while walking 4. Odorizzi’s groundout to flyout ratio was just 3-8 and his groundout to airout ratio was only 3-14, but Odorizzi had his fastball and all of his other pitches moving superbly and hitters couldn’t hit anything with authority.  Odorizzi talked to MiLB.com about his outing after the game.

“The approach was the same as every game,” Odorizzi said. “I was just throwing the fastball and mixing in my other stuff, trying to keep guys off-balanced.

“That’s basically what we did today. I left some stuff up today, and the one or two times they hit balls decent, they were right at guys. It was one of those days when everything was going right.”

Odorizzi is certainly a pitcher capable of striking batters out–he entered the game with a 36-9 strikeout to walk ratio in 27 innings and his 39 strikeouts lead the International League–but it took an outing where his stuff was moving so well that not even he knew where it was going for him to no-hit the opposition. Just 55 of his 95 pitches were strikes, but he was certainly effectively wild on his way to a fabulous outing.

Frank De Los Santos replaced Odorizzi in the 8th but got into trouble, walking a couple batters to set up a 2nd and 3rd, 2 outs jam, but Yates came in to strike out Jonathan Diaz to end the frame. Then in the 9th, Yates walked a pair of hitters and let up Snyder’s sac fly with 2 outs, but Jeff Beliveau struck out Hazelbaker to end it as the Bulls won 2-1, no-hitting Pawtucket. Bulls pitching struck out just 6 while walking 8, but they overcame their wildness to deliver a marvelous game. The no-hitter was the first for Durham since Jason Hammel and Juan Salas combined on one on 7/16/06, the first time Pawtucket had been no-hit since all the way back in 1994 at the hands of Jose Lima, and the second that Odorizzi had been a part of, with the first being a dominant 10-strikeout, 8 inning effort at Low-A Wisconsin in the Brewers organization. The Bulls did also have somewhat offense in this one, with Wil Myers going 1 for 3 with a double and a walk and Mike Fontenot going 1 for 3 with 2 walks. It got scary at the end and the Bulls were lucky to score even a single run at the beginning before Pawtucket pitching shut them out the rest of the game–reliever Graham Godfrey has to get credit for tossing 5 shutout innings in relief of the starter Wright–but it somehow all came together. It was far from a perfect performance for the Bulls at McCoy Stadium on Sunday afternoon, but the Bulls were able to make it a special one nonetheless.

Sorry, but it’s all downhill from here. Rays minor league affiliates didn’t even win another game.

Double-A Southern League: Pensacola Blue Wahoos (CIN) 8, Montgomery Biscuits 2

Victor Mateo, who had tossed the last complete-game no-hitter in the Rays organization has seen on 7/16/11, got shelled in this one as the Biscuits lost 8-2. Mateo lasted just 3 innings allowing 7 runs on 8 hits, and the Biscuits bullpen’s effort of five 1-run innings went completely for nought as the Biscuits offense got next to nothing. Shawn O’Malley did have a great game, going 2 for 2 with a solo home run, a walk, a stolen base, and both runs scored. Mikie Mahtook drove him for the first time in the game with a single as part of a 1 for 3 day. C.J. Riefenhauser lowered his ERA on the season to just 0.46 as he worked around a hit and a walk to toss a scoreless 7th. He has struck out 17 while walking just 4 in 19.2 innings as he has been utterly unhittable, and if he pitches remotely as well as this for much longer, you have to think a promotion to Triple-A will be oncoming.

High-A Florida State League: Brevard County Manatees (MIL) 10, Charlotte Stone Crabs 2

What, does the no-hitter have to be canceled out by horrific pitching elsewhere in the organization? Roberto Gomez allowed 5 runs on 8 hits in 4 innings before Eliazer Suero allowed 5 more runs on 7 hits in 2 innings as this game got out-of-hand in a hurry. Alejandro Segovia did get Charlotte on the board with a 2-run homer in the 7th, and there were a few other highlights for the Stone Crabs. Jeff Malm followed up a 2-homer day on Saturday with 2 hits and a stolen base on Sunday and Willie Argo played very well in his season debut, going 1 for 3 with a walk and a stolen base. Argo stole 17 bases to go along with a .289/.390/.396 line in 69 games between Rookie Princeton and Low-A Bowling Green last season. Some injury must have sidelined Argo up until now, but hopefully he can begin making up for lost time. The fact that the Rays are assigning him to Charlotte right off the bat has to be a good sign.

Low-A Bowling Green: Clinton LumberKings (SEA) 5, Bowling Green Hot Rods 2

Not even Taylor Guerrieri could save the Hot Rods in this one as the Hot Rods blew an early 1-0 lead allowing 2 runs in the 5th and 3 more in the 6th. Guerrieri started for Bowling Green and got hit around a little bit, allowing 2 runs on 8 hits in 5 innings, striking out 4 while walking none and managing a 7-0 groundout to flyout ratio. Jabari Henry homered off Guerrieri in the 5th, a 2-run shot, to end his outing on a downer. Then Jose Molina came in for the Hot Rods and allowed three two-out hits in the 6th to place three runs and puts the Hot Rods down 5-2. Molina allowed only an error in the last two innings, but by then it was too late. A major issue in the low minors is infield defense, and Hot Rods pitching actually forced 19 groundballs in this game, but only 13 were converted into outs, giving Clinton additional opportunities that they were able to take advantage of. Pretty amazing that the Hot Rods forced a 13-1 groundout to flyout ratio with 3 double plays and still got hit around as much as they did, but that can certainly happen at Low-A. Luke Maile went 2 for 4 with a run scored in the loss for Bowling Green while Marty Gantt went 1 for 4 with a stolen base and an RBI. Maile is 12 for 25 (.480) with 2 homers, a double, and 5 RBI in his last six games. Further bad news in this one, though, for Bowling Green was that Andrew Toles left this game after 8 innings. Hopefully he’s not injured.

We know that in spring training, a slew of unproven prospects receive opportunities to catch the eye of the Rays coaching staff, and the Rays are starting to figure out who some of those prospects will be within their organization. The Rays have announced that relievers Marquis Fleming, Kirby Yates, and Adam Liberatore have been invited along with catcher Mark Thomas.

Fleming, 26, started the year in Triple-A for the Rays but struggled and spent most of the year back in Double-A. He’s an interesting relief prospect in that he only throws in the 87-89 MPH range with his fastball, but it features great sink and run away from right-handed batters and he pairs it with a good changeup and solid slider. His pitches feature such remarkable movement that he struggles to control them and he needs more consistency on his secondary pitches, but despite his lack of fastball velocity he still has the potential to be a solid middle reliever in the big leagues.

Yates, who will turn 26 in March, had a good year at Double-A for the Rays, striking out 12.4 batters per 9 innings but also walking. He’s a more conventional relief prospect thanks to a fastball that touches 95 MPH and usually hits the 92-94 MPH range to go along with a sharp slider in the mid-80′s. He’s been working on a changeup that would help him against lefties, but that remains a work in progress. You can never have enough power arms, and if Yates can improve his control and command of all his pitches and develop his changeup into a usable offering, he’s someone we could see in the major leagues at some point next season.

Liberatore, who will turn 26 in May, is a big lefty coming off a big year between Double-A and Triple-A, managing a 2.47 ERA and bizarrely striking out 9 batters per 9 innings at Triple-A compared to just 4.7 at Double-A. Liberatore is the rare the lefty that can bring it a little bit, sitting 90-92 MPH and touching 94 to go along with a good slider and a decent changeup, and he does that out of a deceptive delivery that gives lefty batters fits. LIberatore is another one of these pitchers who needs work on command and control, but a future as a lefty specialist in the major leagues is a possibility.

Finally, Thomas, who will turn 25 in May, might be the Rays’ de facto catcher of the future thanks to excellent defensive skills and some promise at the plate. Thomas has thrown out 41% of attempted basestealers against him in the minor leagues including 46% at Double-A in 2012 thanks to a fluid actions and a strong arm, and he’s potentially the complete package defensively thanks to his talent receiving and blocking balls in the dirt. The biggest question, though, is going to be whether Thomas will ever hit. Thomas slammed 13 home runs in 2011, but he’s severely handicapped at the plate right now by a lack of plate discipline and managed just a .254/.323/.383 line with 5 home runs in 2012. The lack of patience hampers both Thomas’ ability to get on base consistently and to make quality contact as he hasn’t done a good job waiting for pitches to hit. It will be fun for all the Rays’ pitchers to throw to Thomas this spring training and be amazed by his defense, and hopefully the Rays’ coaching staff can help him make the adjustments at the plate that will give him a chance to hit enough to profile as a major league starting catcher, although that is going to be an uphill battle.

ESPN’s Keith Law ranked (Insider-only) the top 25 MLB players under 25 and the Rays’ own Matt Moore came in at number 14. Law said that he “expects Moore to join David Price as a second ace atop the Rays’ rotation” and whether by coincidence or not, 14 is the number that Price happens to wear. Moore was inconsistent his rookie year, but his promise is evident and hopefully 2013 is the year everything comes together for him.

Speaking of fireballing lefties, Jack Moore of Fangraphs talked about how Jake McGee‘s altered throwing motion helped lead to his success in 2012. Moore talked about McGee in advance of McGee being a possibility in a Rays trade for Mike Morse, but I don’t think the Rays will trade three more years of a lefty with closer potential in McGee for one year of Morse. That aside, Moore’s piece is certainly worth the read.

Finally, a couple of Rays are involved with camps raising money for important charities in their community. Jeremy Hellickson is going to make a guest appearance at the “Kids Living Brave” pitching clinic in Hellickson’s hometown of Des Moines, Iowa on January 26th for kids age 8-14, and all the proceeds will go to children fighting cancer. Great to see Hellickson heading back to his hometown to make an impact in the lives of aspiring pitchers and most importantly to raise all that money for kids undergoing cancer treatment. And we have to finish with the one, the only Sam Fuld, who will be running his Sam Fuld Sports Camp once again for children with diabetes ages 8-18 from February 2nd to 3rd at the University of South Florida in Tampa. All participants will receive instruction in 7 different sports: baseball/softball, basketball, tennis, soccer, football, cheerleading (if you count that as a sport), and golf, with professionals or collegiate players in each sport, all of whom have Type 1 Diabetes, on hand to run the programs. Always amazing to see Fuld involved in the community and especially for children with diabetes, and with Fuld at the helm, you know that his event will be a tremendous success once again.

The 40-man roster for big league teams is important for two reasons. The first is that you can only call-up players from your 40-man roster to the big leagues and if a player is not on it, you have to make room for them on the 40-man. The second is that players on the 40-man roster remain under team control- they are not eligible for the Rule 5 Draft and cannot become minor league free agents. The Rays need to figure out which of their prospects belong on their 40-man roster between their abilities to contribute to the team and their chances of being selected in the Rule 5 Draft.

Currently, the Rays’ 40-man roster stands at 34, per the Rays’ official website. The re-signing of Joel Peralta, which is official in everything but name, brings that total to 35. Here they are.

MLB Starting Pitchers (7): RHP Chris Archer, RHP Alex Cobb, RHP Jeremy Hellickson, LHP Matt Moore, RHP Jeff Niemann, LHP David Price, RHP James Shields

MLB Relief Pitchers (5): RHP Burke Badenhop, RHP Wade Davis, LHP Jake McGee, RHP Joel Peralta, RHP Fernando Rodney

Questionable/Minor League Pitchers (7): RHP Alex Colome, RHP Dane De La Rosa, LHP Frank De Los Santos, RHP Brandon Gomes, RHP Josh Lueke, LHP Cesar Ramos, LHP Alexander Torres

Catchers (5): Robinson Chirinos, Chris Gimenez, Jose Lobaton, Jose Molina, Stephen Vogt

Infielders (5): MI Reid Brignac, MI Elliot Johnson, 3B Evan Longoria, 2B Ryan Roberts, INF Sean Rodriguez

Outfielders: Ben Francisco, Sam Fuld, Brandon Guyer, Desmond Jennings, Matthew Joyce, Ben Zobrist

This roster has clear needs- specifically the lack of a first baseman and a clear third starter in the outfield with Ben Zobrist slated to play shortstop- but let’s break it down as it is right now. Even taking possible trades out of the picture, we can pinpoint a few players whose roster spots are up in the air. The most obvious one is Ben Francisco, who is arbitration-eligible after making over 1.5 million dollars in 2012, and he’s a clear non-tender candidate unless the Rays acquire not a single outfielder over the next month, and even if they do, Brandon Guyer looks like he could be just as good as Francisco while making the league minimum. Other than Francisco, you can look in that “Questionable Pitchers” row- they’re not just questionable in terms of minors or majors but also their roster spots. Colome is a nice prospect, De Los Santos was just added to the roster, Gomes was a solid reliever back in 2011, and Ramos seems like a lock to make the big league roster at this point, but De La Rosa and Lueke are fringy relievers, although both feature good arms, and they could certainly go if the Rays run out of 40-man space. Torres is a prospect with electric stuff, but he was also wildly inconsistent in 2012 and the Rays may run out of patience. To a lesser extent, Reid Brignac‘s 40-man roster spot is in jeopardy, but the Rays don’t have a spare infielder to replace him at this point. Counting Brignac, there are 31 locks for the 40-man roster.

Who will the Rays consider adding to the 40-man roster? We can’t think about which players the Rays will acquire this offseason, but the Rays have several players who will have to be considered for the 40-man to protect them from the Rule 5 Draft. The basic rules for eligibility for the Rule 5 Draft are 3 years in the system as a draft pick out of college, 4 years in the system as a draft pick out of high school, and approximately 5 years in the system as an international signee (although things get more touchy because exact signing dates are often unclear). Who are the eligible players for the Rays to consider protecting?

The two locks to be added to the 40-man roster are Tim Beckham, who the Rays selected first overall in 2008, and Hak-Ju Lee, one of the Rays’ top shortstop prospect. Beckham disappointed in 2012, managing just a .256/.325/.361 line At Triple-A and missing time after a drug of abuse suspension, but he still has interesting hitting and power potential and should see big league time in 2013. Lee, meanwhile, is an excellent defensive shortstop and posted a .261/.336/.360 line at Double-A Montgomery with 37 stolen bases. His offensive game is still developing, but his defense is outstanding and if he can get on track at the plate he could be a very good major league player. Beyond Beckham and Lee, things get less clear.

Lefty Kyle Lobstein was selected the round after Beckham in 2008 and had a solid season at Double-A Montgomery in 2012, going 8-7 with a 4.06 ERA, an 8.1 K/9, a 4.3 BB/9, and a 0.9 HR/9 in 27 starts and 144 innings pitched. Lobstein, 6’3″, 200, throws a fastball in the 90-91 MPH range to go along with a solid curveball that shows flashes and a changeup. He was once a promising prospect, but his stock has fallen considerably since he was drafted. It doesn’t look like the Rays will seriously consider adding him to the 40-man, and he may not be a player considered for the Rule 5 Draft either.

Outfielder Ty Morrison was the Rays’ 4th round pick in 2008 and was another player with a solid but overall unimpressive season primarily at Montgomery, posting a .269/.341/.373 line with 25 doubles, 10 triples, 3 homers, 49 RBI, 31 of 41 stolen bases, and 117 strikeouts against 44 walks in 134 games and 609 plate appearances. Morrison stands out most for his speed but shows potential at the plate with nice bat speed but has never shown power and needs work on his patience as well. Morrison moves well in centerfield but does not have a great arm. Morrison seems unlikely to be more than a 4th outfielder at that point, but the Rays don’t have a spare outfielder on their roster at this point and Morrison could get a look both by the Rays to be added to their 40-man, and in the Rule 5 Draft if they don’t.

Right-hander Scott Shuman was selected in the 39th round by the Rays back in 2009 and was horrific at Montgomery in 2012, striking out a ridiculous 14.0 batters per 9 innings in 2012 but posting an 8.83 ERA as he also walked 12.2 per 9 in 29 appearances. Shuman throws a fastball that reached the upper-90′s and even a sharp slider, but his control is absolutely horrendous. Some team might give him a chance in the Rule 5 Draft, but it looks everything like they’ll stay away after he walked everybody in 2012. No chance the Rays add him to the 40-man roster this offseason.

Another right-hander, Kirby Yates, was a non-drafted free signee by the Rays in 2009 and had a good season also with the Biscuits this past season, posting a 2.65 ERA, a 12.4 K/9, a 5.2 BB/9, and a 0.5 HR/9 in 50 appearances. Yates, just 5’10″, 170, has a fastball in the 92-94 MPH range to go along with a good slider, and the Rays have sent him to the Arizona Fall League the last two seasons hoping to refine his control. Yates has his issues, but the Rays clearly like him after sending him to the AFL twice in a row and he has a reasonable chance of getting added to the 40-man roster- if he isn’t, some team may pick him up in the Rule 5 Draft hoping he can be a solid middle reliever in the big leagues.

Cole Figueroa, who was the Padres’ 6th round pick in 2008 before the Rays acquired him in the Jason Bartlett deal, is coming off a nice season primarily at Triple-A Durham, posting a .292/.362/.413 line with 23 doubles, 5 triples, 5 homers, 54 RBI, and 43 walks against 31 strikeouts in 113 games and 452 plate appearances while playing good defense at second and third base. Figueroa fits a good utility profile and maybe even has a chance to carve out a Jeff Keppinger-esque career thanks to excellent plate discipline to go along with good bat speed and versatility. He’s a poor runner without much power, but he definitely has a chance to hit more than say the trio of Elliot Johnson, Reid Brignac, and Sean Rodriguez- although he can’t handle shortstop instead in a pinch, which will likely prevent him from profiling as a starting infielder. He seems like a sure bet for the Rays’ 40-man roster this offseason.

Joseph Cruz and Nick Barnese, both right-handers selected in 2007. were both interesting prospects at one point but a combination of injuries and simply poor performance and derailed both of their careers.

Adding Beckham, Yates, and Figueroa to the 40-man roster brings the total to a maximum of 38 if they keep Francisco and the questionable pitchers on the roster. That leaves some wiggle room for players to be added based on merit alone. A couple of players for the Rays to consider are Leslie Anderson and Kevin Kiermaier. Anderson, 30, is in the final year of a 4-year deal he signed with the Rays after defecting from Cuba and had a good year at Triple-A in 2012, posting a .309/.355/.450 line with  21 doubles, 14 homers, 56 RBI, and 56 strikeouts against 26 walks in 116 games and 482 plate appearances. Anderson is a good pure hitter, but he’s a first base/left field type without the power to profile there, and a lack of patience puts his ability to hit at all in the big leagues into question. Nevertheless, the Rays have no first basemen on their roster at this point and they have to consider finally giving Anderson a chance.

Kiermaier, 22, had a lost 2012 because of injuries but had a dynamite performance in the Arizona Fall League, posting a .348/.444/.493 line with 6 doubles, 2 triples, 7 RBI, 7 of 7 stolen bases, and 12 strikeouts against 12 walks in 23 games. Kiermaier is an speedy outfielder with good defense and solid bat speed although not much power. He fits a perfect 4th outfielder archetype and will see big league time in 2012 pending more injury issues. The only question for Kiermaier is that the Rays would rather not use an option year on him this year if they don’t have to and it makes more sense to add him to the 40-man roster when they want to call him up.

Here’s your Rays 40-man roster for right now: the players listed above plus Beckham, Yates, Figueroa, Anderson, and I guess Morrison for the last spot with no reason to add Kiermaier yet. Obviously this 40-man roster is not going to cut it for the Rays next season and acquisitions will be made to improve the team. By the time the season starts, it will not be anywhere near this hard to find 40 players to go onto the roster- there will be some tough roster decisions for the Rays as the offseason progresses and the Rays will have to find the right balance between protecting their Rule 5 Draft-eligible players and finding potential contributors for next season.