Commenter Baltar Asks: What are the Rays going to do for a catcher whenever Jose Molina hangs ‘em up?

The catcher position has been a major weakness for the Rays since… basically the start of the franchise. Dioner Navarro did have an All-Star campaign in 2008, but that’s basically it for the highlights, especially on offense. Even if you set the minimum as low as 200 plate appearances, only Navarro (exactly 100) and John Jaso in 2010 (112) have managed OPS+ marks league average or better (100 is average and each number above that is that much percent better than average). Unfortunately, Navarro’s 2008 season may stand alone as the only All-Star season by a Rays catcher for at least the next several days. The good news, though, is that the Rays may finally end up with an above-average average situation at catcher and maybe even find that elusive franchise catcher they’ve never had in their history.

Other than Molina, the Rays’ major league catchers right now are Jose Lobaton and Chris Gimenez. But at 28 and 30 years old respectively, neither are prospects in any sense of the word and if either is starting for the Rays in two or three years, something will likely have gone horribly wrong. Lobaton has a decent eye at the plate and stands out as a switch-hitter, but he fits much better as a backup thanks to struggles against right-handed pitching and little power. Gimenez actually may actually have more potential after breaking out at Triple-A last season with a new approach at the plate, and his best-case scenario may be carving out a nice career for himself as a late-blooming catcher who can provide decent offense and defense. In all likelihood, though, he looks like another backup and he’s certainly not the future for the Rays at the position.

Things begin to get interesting when we get to the Rays’ only real upper-levels catching prospect, Mark Thomas. Thomas, who turns 25 next month, had a solid season at Double-A Montgomery last year, managing a .254/.323/.383 line with 19 doubles, 5 homers, and 42 RBI in 349 plate appearances, and he’s back with the Biscuits to begin this year as well. Thomas attracts attention primarily for his defense, and in that regard he’s quite special. An athletic 6’1″, 180, Thomas moves extremely well behind the plate and stands out for his receiving, Molina-esque pitch framing, and also a very strong although  arm that has helped him throw out 41% of attempted basestealers in his pro career. Pitchers love working with him and he has a chance to be a Gold Glover if he hits enough to start. His hitting, though, is the big question with him.

Thomas, a right-handed hitter, has shown some flashes at the plate, hitting 18 home runs in 2011 between High-A Charlotte and the Australian Baseball League and finishing extremely strong in 2012, hitting .397 with 4 of his 5 homers on the season in the final month of the minor league season in August. However, he struck out 78 times versus just 29 walks in 2012 and has had major trouble against right-handed pitching as a righty batter, managing just a .229/.286/.343 line the past two years compared to a solid .273/.349/.475 mark versus lefties. Thomas’ defense should get him to the major leagues and his power could make him at least an average major league starter, but he needs serious work with his plate discipline and against righty pitchers before that enters the realm of possibility. Thomas’ likely role over the next few years might be replacing Molina as a defense-first catcher splitting time with someone else, and although he has potential, he’s another player much more likely to be a fringe-starter or backup moving forward.

Behind Thomas, you have three players with considerable upside but also plenty of risk in Luke Bailey, Justin O’Conner, and Oscar Hernandez. Bailey and O’Conner were both high-profile draft picks, but neither has done anything as a pro. Bailey somehow made it to High-A Charlotte last season but had a bad season made worse by injuries, managing just a .231/.277/.393 line with 15 doubles, 7 homers, and 28 RBI in 256 plate appearances. Bailey has big raw power but no plate discipline whatsoever, striking out 67 times versus just 8 walks in 2012, and his defense may be even more of a work in progress. Bailey has a great arm but it’s erratic, and his receiving has a long way to go after he allowed 11 passed balls in just his partial season in 2012. Bailey is still only 22, but the Rays have been waiting for Bailey to break out for four years and it may never happen at this point.

O’Conner, a 1st round pick by the Rays’ in 2010, is only worse right now, only 21 but just starting at Low-A now after three seasons in Short Season ball and owning a .197/.270/.355 line with a 201-55 strikeout-to-walk ratio for his career. O’Conner has even bigger raw power and arm strength than Bailey, but he can’t make contact and needs plenty of development time behind the plate as well. A hip injury that bothered him for all of 2012 and prevented him from catching a single game only made things worse. As with Bailey, the Rays are still hoping that this could be the year O’Conner finally takes a step forward, but if he doesn’t make progress soon he’s going to be converted to the mound as the Rays try to make use of the outstanding arm strength that made Bailey a nationally renowned pitcher in high school.

Then there’s Hernandez, just 19 years old but shockingly and depressingly the most likely of these three to pan out as a catcher. Hernandez caught eyes with an enormous season in the Venezuelan Winter League in 2011, managing a ridiculous .402/.503/.732 line with 14 doubles and 21 home runs in 294 plate appearances, and while he didn’t nearly live up to that standard in his US debut at Rookie-level Princeton in 2012, there’s still plenty to be excited about. Hernandez had a solid season for the P-Rays, managing a .231/.349/.394 line with 9 doubles, 5 homers, 24 RBI, and most impressively, a 31-23 strikeout to walk ratio in 195 plate appearances. Hernandez didn’t hit for much average at all, but he remains impressive for good bat speed and nice raw power and patience. Drawing that many walks while not striking out too much certainly bodes well for Hernandez’s future, and as he improves his pitch recognition over time, he’ll be able to use his patience to find pitches to hit and tap into his power. Defensively, Hernandez has a long way to go but progressed nicely in his US debut, cutting his bassed balls from 12 to 6 while still throwing out 38% of attempted basestealers. He moved well behind the plate and has a good if not great arm and he could be a solid defender someday. Hernandez has a chance to be a great offensive catcher a few years down the line and he has to be the Rays’ catcher of the future, albeit almost by default.

Beyond the players we’ve talked about, sleepers include Taylor Hawkins, who the Rays’ signed to an above-slot bonus after drafting him in the 12th round of the 2012 Draft thanks to big-time power, and Alejandro Segovia, who was never much a prospect but then broke out to a .269/.362/.527 line with 15 homers in 284 plate appearances at Low-A in 2012.

Overall, the Rays’ outlook at the catcher position remains pretty bleak. Lobaton and Gimenez might be halfway-decent, Thomas has a little potential, and then there’s some upside in the form of Hernandez, Bailey, and O’Conner, but everyone is either not very very talented or far from the big leagues and coming with tons of risk. There’s no clear answer on the way and the Rays are going to have to look at acquiring a topflight catching prospect, whether by trading a starting pitcher (if they’re going to deal David Price, they better get an impact catcher) or through the draft.

Baltar’s question happened to come at the perfect time as I’m planning a series on the top catching prospects in the 2013 MLB Draft beginning in just a few days. The Rays’ catching situation has to be improved, and after drafting O’Conner in 2010, the time may have come for the Rays to take a chance on another high school catcher or maybe even a college one early in the draft. We will look at the candidates for that player who could finally give the Rays that solid major league starting catcher they’ve been hoping to find for far too long, and we’ll have to see whether the Rays choose to go that way once June comes around.

Will Bailey ever turn his abilities into results? (Credit: Flickr user BeGreen90)

Catcher

Luke Bailey, who will turn 22 in March, was a 4th round draft pick by the Rays in 2010 (17 picks after Wil Myers), and was the fifth-youngest player on the Stone Crabs in 2012. Bailey is the Rays’ only real catching prospect above Low-A, and unfortunately his risk is as high as anyone in the system. While Bailey’s abilities are interesting, his continued rawness makes his future extremely far from a sure thing. In 2012, Bailey managed just a .231/.277/.393 line with 15 doubles, 7 homers, 28 RBI, and 67 strikeouts versus just 8 walks in 67 games and 256 plate appearances. Defensively, he threw out 30% of attempted basestealers, but he allowed 11 passed balls and made 18 errors. Bailey stands out most for good bat speed and raw power and also plus arm strength. But at the plate, he’s severely handicapped by a lack of patience and plate discipline as he got befuddled by breaking balls all season and missed too often when pitchers made mistakes with fastballs. When Bailey connected, he hit the ball pretty hard, but he just could not do that at anywhere near a consistent basis. Defensively, Bailey’s arm strength may be good, but he’s also inaccurate as he gets caught up trying to do too much behind the plate. Bailey’s athletic at 6’0″, 198 but is an inconsistent receiver, and his offensive struggles only made things worse. But all that being said, Bailey’s tools are real and all he may need to rectify his issues is to stay on the field. Bailey played in just 67 games in 2012 after playing 74 in 2011 as injuries sidelined him from April to mid-June. Bailey actually got better as he got more playing time, managing a .240/.280/.453 line with 7 doubles, 3 homers, and 9 RBI in 82 plate appearances between August and September to close out the season. Bailey has done nothing as a pro and the risk with him is only getting higher, but if he can stay on the field, maybe everything could come together. The Rays will stay patient with Bailey knowing how talented he is, and he will likely begin 2013 back at Charlotte with the Rays hoping he’ll make a breakthrough and arrive at Double-A before long.

First Base

Philip Wunderlich was released after a year where he posted a .230/.278/.359 line with 21 doubles, 9 homers, 47 RBI, and 75 strikeouts against 21 walks in 436 plate appearances. I wrote final thoughts on him as a member of the Rays system here.

Second Base

Hector Guevara, the youngest player on the Stone Crabs as he just turned 21 years old, caught the eyes of evaluators when he slammed 8 homers in the Venezuelan Summer League back in 2007 but has hit just 8 combined home runs in 905 plate appearances since then. In 2012 for Charlotte, Guevara managed just a .234/.281/.297 line with 12 doubles, 3 homers, 35 RBI, 6 of 12 stolen bases, and 44 strikeouts against 24 walks in 100 games and 406 appearances. Guevara, who is 5’11″, 170, is a good defensive second baseman with nice range and a strong arm, and he even saw time at shortstop after Derek Dietrich was promoted to Double-A Montgomery in the latter part of the season. But offensively, he doesn’t do anything right now but make contact. His bat speed is solid and he’s able to put the ball in play, but his indiscriminate approach causes him to make too much contact and make a lot of weak contact, especially in the air. The thing that stands out about Guevara’s 2007 performance was that his strikeout to walk ratio was 21-16. Since then, his strikeout to walk ratios have been 31-15, 37-14, and 44-24. He didn’t strike out at all in 2012, striking out in just 10.7% of his plate appearances, but his plate discipline is simply non-existent and it doesn’t matter if he makes contacts if he can’t hit the ball with authority. Guevara is likely in line for a return to Charlotte next season, and the Rays will try to completely readjust his approach in an attempt to see if his power showing from back in 2007 is indicative of anything. Guevara still has youth on his side, but if he can’t fix his approach at the plate, it won’t make a difference.

Robby Price, who will turn 25 in April, was old for High-A in 2012 but had an interesting year for the Stone Crabs while playing second base, third base, and left field. Price posted a .268/.374/.342 line with 14 doubles, 3 triples, 3 homers, 30 RBI, just 5 of 14 stolen bases, and 36 strikeouts against 45 walks in 112 games and 473 plate appearances. Price is a one-tool player and that tool isn’t one of the typical five. His plate discipline is off the charts, and you can add in that he has a talent for getting hit by pitches. In all three of his minor league seasons, he has walked more than he has struck out and gotten hit by at least 15 pitches as well. Price is able to use his plate discipline to make some solid contact but still has no power at all. Defensively, he has a good arm and decent speed, but poor hands prevent him from playing shortstop and that really hurts his utility profile. Price’s age and lack of power makes him a longshot, but if his plate discipline persists at higher levels he could make the big leagues.

Shortstop

Derek Dietrich had a nice year for the Stone Crabs, managing a .281/.343/.468 line with 21 doubles, 9 triples, 10 homers, 58 RBI, and 78 strikeouts against 25 walks in 98 games and 417 plate appearances before getting promoted to Double-A Montgomery. Montgomery has since been traded to the Miami Marlins for Yunel Escobar. I talked about Dietrich one last time in an analysis of that trade here.

Robi Estrada, who turned 24 in October, finally earned a promotion to Charlotte in 2012 after three three straight seasons at Low-A Bowling Green. Estrada was a year too old for the level but did have an OK year, managing a .253/.310/.357 line with 15 doubles, 3 homers, 25 RBI, 6 of 7 stolen bases, and 43 strikeouts against 22 walks in 75 games and 279 plate appearances. Estrada, 5’10″ and 170 pounds, has always been a tap hitter but found a way to find a little pop in 2011 and carried it over into 2012. Estrada actually shows good bat speed from a compact swing, and his pitch recognition is even decent, but he’s way too aggressive within the zone and may actually have a little more power in him if he can fix that. Already 24, though, it may be too late. Estrada’s shows good speed, although he could use work on his basestealing, and his speed gives him solid range defensively, and pairing that with an average arm gives Estrada a chance to profile all over the field. In 2012, he saw time at both middle infield spots along with a couple games in the corner outfield positions as well. Estrada has a chance to be a big league utility player someday, but he has continued improvements to be made offensively and on the basepaths, and given his age that seems unlikely to happen.

Third Base

Riccio Torrez, who turned 23 in October, was the Rays’ 4th round pick in 2011 but did not have the type of full-season pro debut he was hoping for. Torrez managed just a .219/.287/.335 line with 18 doubles, 3 triples, 9 homers, 50 RBI, 7 of 9 stolen bases, and 86 strikeouts against just 27 walks in 123 games and 492 plate appearances. Torrez didn’t swing-and-miss so much, striking out in just 17.5% of his plate appearances compared to the 19.1% league average, but like several of the players above, his fatal flaw was a lack of plate discipline that prevented him from doing anything at the plate. Torrez, a right-handed hitter, was a bit better against lefties than righties, managing a .699 OPS compared to .567, but his lack of patience really holds him back against pitchers of both sides. The good news is that Torrez has already started to make an adjustment, managing a 7.4% walk rate in 288 plate appearances from June to the end of the year after just a 3.0% mark in 198 PA’s in April and May. At his best, Torrez shows solid bat speed with decent pop, and he’s also an average runner with good instincts on the basepaths. Defensively, Torrez shined even amid his offensive struggles, showing a strong arm and good reflexes, and while he played exclusively third base in 2012, he should be able to handle second base and the corner outfield spots while also being able to fake shortstop in a pinch. There is clearly a lot of work for Torrez to go, but it’s good to know that he adjusted as the season went on and he does a lot of things well. Torrez fits a great utility profile as long as he can prove that his plate discipline breakthrough is real, and the Rays hope he can get his numbers in line with where they should be likely back at Charlotte to begin next season with a quick promotion to Double-A a possibility if he plays well.

We’ll stop here for right now. The Stone Crabs’ infielders don’t exactly knock your socks off- the best prospect, Dietrich, was traded- but the Rays could end up with a big leaguer or two out of this group within the next couple of years, and it will be very interesting to see what happens with Luke Bailey. We’ll continue next time with the Stone Crabs’ outfielders.

For more of our scouting reports on the Rays’ minor league affiliates check out our Minor League Affiliates Analysis page here at RCG.

Triple-A International League: Gwinnett Bulls 10, Durham Bulls 5

An inning of nightmares sent Josh Lueke and the Bulls to a loss they would rather that not talk about. The loss was especially meaningful for the Bulls not just for what happened in the game, but the implications of the loss.

With the Bulls loss tonight and Charlotte’s win, Durham has been eliminated from the IL South race for the first time since 2006.

— Durham Bulls (@DurhamBulls) August 19, 2012

The Bulls’ incredible run of five straight division titles has come to an end. In this game, Jim Paduch and Josh Lueke utterly imploded to allow an 8-run 5th inning to erase a 4-1 lead. Lueke had one of the worst outings of his life, allowing 6 runs on 7 hits in just two-thirds of an inning. Lueke has been pitching extremely well up until this bump in the road and hopefully this is just a one-time deal and we’ll see him pitching well in the big leagues in September. Lefty Adam Liberatore did strike out 5 while walking none in 2.1 innings of relief, but by then it was too late. Nevin Ashley did have an outstanding game for Durham, going 2 for 2 with a double, a homer, 2 walks, 2 RBI, and 2 runs scored, Brooks Conrad also homered, and Henry Wrigley went 2 for 5 with an RBI and a run scored.

Double-A Southern League: Huntsville Stars (MIL) 6, Montgomery Biscuits 5 (10 innings)

If you want to experience just a little bit of what it’s like to be an Angels fan right now, you can think about this Biscuits game. The Biscuits had a 5-0 lead after 3 innings before letting it slip away. The Biscuits scored 5 runs in the second and third innings, with 3 of the runs being driven in by ninth-place hitter Mark Thomas, and starter Jake Thompson gave the Biscuits a strong performance, going 6 innings allowing 2 runs on 4 hits, striking out 2 while walking 1 and posting a 10-4 groundout to flyout ratio. But the Stars pulled within 5-3 on a Kentrail Davis home run off of C.J. Riefenhauser and tied the game in the bottom of the 8th as Kirby Yates walked the bases loaded before allowing a Brock Kjeldgaard 2-run single. And in the 10th, Davis came through again with a walk-off single against Neil Schenk as the Biscuits had completely fallen apart to lose 6-5. The Biscuits scored 5 runs on just 6 hits, but they talled 11 walks and failed to capitalize, leaving 11 runners on base in the game. Thomas went 3 for 5 with a double, 3 RBI, and a run scored in the loss.

Great to see Torrez come back the way he did. (Credit: Flickr user BeGreen90)

High-A Florida State League: Charlotte Stone Crabs 9, St. Lucie Mets 8

No disappointment here as the Stone Crabs came up with an incredible comeback of their own. Eliazer Suero tossed 3 shutout innings but came apart in the 5th, allowing 5 runs, just 2 earned after a Riccio Torrez error. On the day he was not that bad, going 3.2 innings allowing just the 2 earned runs on 5 hits, striking out 5 while walking 2 and posting a 4-2 groundout to flyout ratio, but the Stone Crabs were down 5-1. However, they pulled within 5-4 in the 5th on a Luke Bailey RBI double an RBI single by Robby Price, and an RBI groundout by Kevin Kiermaier. In the 6th, Alonzo Harris dampened the Stone Crabs’ spirits with a 2-run home run off of Theron Geith to extend the St. Lucie lead to 7-4. The game would remain that way until the 8th. And in the 8th, Bailey came up huge, drilling a 3-run home run to tie the game at 7. But adversity still remained for Charlotte as Daniel Muno singled home a run off of Lenny Linsky to give St. Lucie an 8-7 lead going to the bottom of the 9th. However, the Stone Crabs were not going to be denied. With 2 outs and no one on, Philip Wunderlich was hit by a pitch. Then Steven Tinoco singled. Riccio Torrez, who committed the pivotal error earlier in the game, got redemption with a game-tying RBI double. And an error gave the Stone Crabs a walk-off win by a score of 9-8. Bailey had an unbelievable game, going 3 for 4 with 2 doubles, 1 homer, 4 RBI, and 2 runs scored. Bailey has notched 6 hits in his last 3 games, all for extra bases. This is the player that the Rays have been waiting for since the moment they drafted him in 2009 and maybe this could be Bailey’s coming-out party. Price went 3 for 4, Tinoco went 3 for 5, and Cody Rogers and Riccio Torrez both went 2 for 5, with Torrez lacing 2 doubles including the game-tying hit in the 9th.

Low-A Midwest League: South Bend Silver Hawks (ARI) 11, Bowling Green Hot Rods 10

This game may very well have been the craziest in the history of the Hot Rods. Unfortunately, they could not come away with a win. This game got off to an incredible start for Bowling Green as they scored twice on bases-loaded walks in the 1st before Drew Vettleson slammed a 2-run homer in the 2nd to give them a 4-0 lead. Roberto Gomez was great in his shortened 3 inning start as the Rays have been holding back his innings, allowing no runs on 3 hits, striking out 4 while walking none. Felipe Rivero struck out 2 in a perfect 4th and then used a double play to face the minimum in the 5th. But looking in the boxscore, there’s a line that nobody wants to see. “Rivero, Fe pitched to 7 batters in the 6th.” It was an inning that you never hope to see your entire career. Better it happen at Low-A than higher up. Rivero allowed 7 runs, 6 earned, on 6 hits as he failed to record an out in the 6th inning and Charlie Cononie allowed 3 more before he could escape the inning as the Hot Rods allowed 10 runs in the inning to fall behind 10-4. That type of inning is enough to demoralize any team. We saw a 7-run 5th inning take the life out of the Angels in the Rays’ game on Saturday night. But the Hot Rods somehow refused to be fazed and came right back. In the 6th, the Hot Rods tallied 2 runs on a Tyler Goeddel RBI double to go along with a Drew Vettleson RBI single. And in the 7th, the Hot Rods put together a rally to tie the game, with Juniel Querecuto drilling a 2-run double, Ryan Brett doubling home a run, and Vettleson singled up the middle to tie it at 10 as the Hot Rods had put together an incredible comeback. Cononie and Frank Santana both tossed scoreless half-innings in the 8th. But in the 9th, the Hot Rods picked the wrong time to fall apart defensively as throwing errors by the third baseman Goeddel and the first baseman Jeff Malm scored the go-ahead run as South Bend won 11-10. Vettleson had a big game, going 4 for 5 with a homer, 4 RBI, and 2 runs scored. Goeddel went 3 for 5 with a double, an RBI, and a run scored, Jake Hager went 3 for 5, Taylor Motter went 2 for 4 with a walk, his 20th stolen base, an RBI, and a run scored, Malm went 2 for 3 with a double, 2 walks, and a run scored, and Ryan Brett doubled home a run and also stole a base, his 48th of the season.

Short Season-A New York-Penn League: Hudson Valley Renegades 6, Lowell Spinners (BOS) 5

No comeback here, but it got awfully scary for the Renegades. Taylor Guerrieri started and pitched well, allowing 1 run on 4 hits in 3 innings, striking out 1 while walking none and posting a 6-0 groundout to flyout ratio. The ‘Gades took a 3-0 lead in the 2nd inning on a Joel Caminero RBI double followed by a Jake DePew RBI single, and after the Spinners tallied a run in the bottom of the inning, Ryan Dunn doubled home a run in the 3rd to make it 4-1 Hudson Valley. Jeff Ames then came in for the Renegades and tossed 3 sharp innings, allowing no runs on just 1 hit, striking out 4 while walking none. The Renegades extended their lead to 6-1 with Ames in the game on a Joey Rickard sac fly to score DePew in the 4th before DePew slammed a solo home run in the 6th. Marcus Jensen and Ryan Garton then tossed a scoreless inning each and the Renegades were on their way to a crisp win. But then Dylan Floro had an inning he would like to forget. With 1 out, Floro allowed triple, single, double, with the single and double each plating a run, and then a Luke Maile error made it a 6-4 game with just 1 out. Floro forced a groundout, but then a Roberto Reyes infield single that Richie Shaffer couldn’t handle made it 6-5. But Floro forced Matthew Gedman to ground out to end it as the Renegades won 6-5. DePew had a career day, going 4 for 4 with a double, a homer, 3 RBI, and 2 runs scored, Ryan Dunn went 2 for 2 with a double, a walk, an RBI, and a run scored, and Tommy Coyle stole his 15th base of the season for the Renegades.

Advanced Rookie Appalachian League: Johnson City Cardinals 9, Princeton Rays 8

Oh, Rookie ball. It spawns the types of games that you never see anywhere else, like this one. Blake Snell had a rare bad start, allowing 3 runs on 5 hits in 2 innings, striking out 2 while walking 1, and Daniel Bream allowed a Ricardo Lizcano 2-run shot in the 4th inning to give Johnson City a 5-0 lead. But then the tide completely turned. Reid Redman doubled home a run in the 5th to make it 5-1. Oscar Hernandez slammed a 2-run homer in the 6th to pull Princeton within 5-3. And then in the 7th, the P-Rays the completely reversed their fortunes. Brandon Martin led off the inning with a homer and it was 5-4. An Omar Narvaez RBI single tied the game. A 2-run double by John Alexander make it 7-5. And Ariel Soriano singled home a run to make it 8-5 as suddenly the P-Rays had scored 8 unanswered runs to turn what looked like a sure loss into a relatively comfortable lead. But anything can and does happen in Rookie ball. Nick Sawyer, who has been next to automatic for Princeton this season, came in for his second inning of work as he tried to nail down the save. Sawyer struck out the first two batters of the inning. Saywer then walked Ricardo Lizcano, but he forced C.J. McElroy to hit a groundball to short. But Martin misplayed the ball, scoring a run and keeping the Cardinals alive. And Sawyer then fell apart, allowing a Ildemaro Vargas RBI double, a Jeremy Shaeffer RBI triple, and walk-off single by Trevor Martin as Johnson City won 9-8 with 4 unearned runs in the 9th. Hernandez and Martin both homered and Omar Narvaez, John Alexander, Reid Redman, Willie Argo, and Ariel Soriano all had multi-hit games, but the result was unfortunately a debilitating loss.