Triple-A International League: Lehigh Valley Ironpigs (PHI) 6, Durham Bulls 4

It was probably inevitable and it definitely could have been far worse, but it was definitely a little scary to see Alex Torres lose control for the first time in way too long in a 6th inning collapse. With the Bulls trailing 2-0 entering the 6th, Torres had a rough inning, hitting a batter, walking a batter, and allowing two line drive hits, and add two errors to the equation and the Ironpigs had extended their lead to 6-0. That’s the type of outing that could happen to anyone–but in Torres’ case, his control breakthrough was so miraculous that we have to be especially overzealous. On the day, Torres went 5.2 innings allowing 6 runs, 4 earned, on 6 hits, striking out 8 while walking 3. For another player, that might be called an “encouraging outing” and it only raised Torres’ ERA to 2.38. He should be fine–certainly not panic time yet. Jeff Beliveau and Kirby Yates gave the Bulls hitless relief the rest of the way, striking out 8 in the last 3.1 innings (although Beliveau walked 3) to give the Bulls 16 strikeouts on the day. Pretty impressive. On the offensive side, Jason Bourgeois made up somewhat for his error to burn Torres by going 2 for 4 with 2 doubles, 2 RBI, and a run scored, and Cole Figueroa went 2 for 4 with a double and a run scored. Speaking of players who have collapsed, Brandon Guyer has really had a rough go for a while now, going 0 for 4 to drop his average to .248 on the year. He’s just 20 for his last 90 (.222). Wil Myers got the day off for Durham.

Double-A Southern League: Birmingham Barons (CHW) 7, Montgomery Biscuits 3

Middle inning collapses are certainly a theme Rays fans have had enough of, but unfortunately that was the case in this inning as well. Jacob Thompson had been pitching well before allowing a walk and 2 singles in the 7th, and then Braulio Lara actually lost the strike zone, walking two and allowing a wild pitch before a Trayce Thompson 2-run single capped the 5-run rally. Thompson’s rough year continues as he went 6.2 innings allowing 4 runs on 7 hits, striking out 3 while walking 2. His ERA stands at just 6.49 as he has had his moments, having a pair of outings where he has allowed just 2 hits in  6 innings, but remains exceedingly inconsistent on the whole. In terms of the offense, Mark Thomas had the breakout game we’ve been waiting for him to have, going 3 for 4 with 2 doubles and an RBI. He’s hitting just .141 on the season and a big part of that has been that he has struck out 21 times while walking just 4 times in 85 plate appearances–but all 4 of those walks have come in his last 10 games so hopefully he’s seeing the ball better and starting to turn himself around. Kevin Kiermaier went 3 for 5 with a double, a stolen base, and a run scored for the Biscuits while Greg Sexton went 2 for 4 with 2 runs scored. While we’re on the topic of players who have come apart, have to mention Cameron Seitzer, who is just 4 for his last 43 (.111) to drop him to just a .244/.355/.344 line on the season. Seitzer’s plate discipline is great as he has managed a 34-22 strikeout to walk ratio, but he just isn’t hitting the ball with any authority, and he has to change that.

Low-A Midwest League: Bowling Green Hot Rods 8, Lake County Captains (CLE) 0

Rough day for the Bulls and Biscuits, but at least the Hot Rods will end this minor league recap on quite a positive note. It all starts with Taylor Guerrieri, who put together his finest outing as a pro. Guerrieri went 5 innings allowing just 1 hit, striking out 10 while walking just 2. The 10 strikeouts shattered his previous career high of 7. Amazing outing for Guerrieri, but amazingly he wasn’t really satisfied with himself after the game.

“I struggled in the beginning, with two walks in the first two innings. After that I tried to stay mentally strong and it worked out for me. I’m fine with my outing. The defense played well for me. The offense really hit well for me. It’s hard to lose when you put eight runs on the board.”

Guerrieri sure has lofty standards, and the Rays are going to do everything in their power to make sure he reaches that level someday. In terms of the run support Guerrieri alluded to, Tyler Goeddel broke out of a slump with a big game, going 2 for 3 with a homer, a double, a walk, and 3 RBI. The homer was his first of the year. It has been tough for Goeddel as he has been switching off between third base and shortstop and dealt with some injury problems, but hopefully he’s getting locked in again. Then there was Andrew Toles, whose 2013 season has been something to behold. Toles went 2 for 5 with 2 RBI and 2 runs scored, swiping 3 more bases in the process. He has now stolen 18 already this year, getting caught just once. Wow. Pair that with a .333/.367/.523 line and you have yourself a top prospect, although his plate discipline (21-5 K-BB) is an area where he really has to improve. Marty Gantt also went 2 for 4 with a run scored, but the most encouraging player of all was Patrick Leonard, who went 2 for 4 with a double and a run scored. He’s hitting just .155 on the year, but maybe this is the game where the lesser-known piece in the Wil Myers trade starts playing up to his capability. By the way, the Hot Rods tossed a 2-hitter in this game, with the three relievers behind Guerrieri not really impressing, striking out just 1, but only allowing 1 hit. Doesn’t get much better than scoring 8 runs to go along with a 2-hitter, and even more important were the performances of players like Guerrieri, Goeddel, and Leonard.

Triple-A International League: Charlotte Knights (CHW) 5, Durham Bulls 4

The Bulls blew a 4-2 lead after five and a half innings as they lost their second straight game after a four-game winning streak. Jake Odorizzi took the hill for Durham and was great overall but allowed a 2-run homer to Brent Morel in the 6th inning to knot the game up at 4. Odorizzi went 5.1 innings allowing 4 runs on 5 hits, but most impressively, he struck out 9 while walking none, improving his strikeout-to-walk ratio to a ridiculous 17-2 for the season. But even as Odorizzi racks up the strikeouts, he has to do a much better job keeping the ball down in the zone before he can unleash his potential at the MLB level for the Rays. The Bulls did have a decent offensive day in the loss, with Jason Bourgeois going 3 for 5 with an RBI, Rich Thompson going 2 for 5 with a stolen base, Brandon Guyer going 1 for 3 with a hit-by-pitch, an RBI, and a run scored, and most impressively, Hak-Ju Lee slamming a solo home run in 4 trips.

Double-A Southern League: Jackson Generals (SEA) 10, Montgomery Biscuits 9 (10 innings)

This one really stung. The Generals jumped out to a 9-3 lead after 5 innings before the Biscuits came all the way back to tie the game at 9 in the 9th on a 2-out, bases-clearing 3-run double by Mark Thomas, but they lost in walk-off fashion in the 10th. Enny Romero got hit hard for the Biscuits, going 4.1 innings allowing 7 runs, 6 earned, on 6 hits, striking out 3, walking 3, and allowing 3 home runs, but it was three shutout innings by C.J. Riefenhauser and Neil Schenk that allowed Montgomery to rally. The Biscuits offense did everything in their power to win this game, with Thomas going 2 for 5 with his huge hit, Riccio Torrez going 3 for 5 with a homer, 2 doubles, 2 RBI, and 2 runs scored, and Todd Glaesmann homering while Ty Morrison and Shawn O’Malley laced triples, but it wasn’t enough as the Biscuits’ bullpen could only keep Jackson off the board for so long.

High-A Florida State League: Fort Myers Miracle (MIN) 8, Charlotte Stone Crabs 7

The Stone Crabs fought valiantly, but a 4-run 8th wasn’t enough to overcome the fact that they gave Fort Myers this game on a silver platter with 5 errors and 3 passed balls. Roberto Gomez continued his early-season struggles after blowing by Low-A, allowing 5 runs on 5 hits in 5 innings, striking out 4 while walking 3. Eliazer Suero and Lenny Linsky couldn’t do much better, allowing 3 runs in 4 innings. The bats did show a good deal of promise, with Alejandro Segovia going 2 for 4 with a homer, a double, 3 RBI, and 2 runs scored, and Kyeong Kang, Jake Hager, and Drew Vettleson also having multi-hit games, but the Stone Crabs have to be hitting themselves for letting this one get away with their defensive miscues.

Low-A Midwest League: Bowling Green Hot Rods 4, West Michigan Whitecaps (DET) 2

There is hope for the future as at least the Hot Rods found a way to win. Of course it’s all about the pitching. Sean Bierman breezed by the Whitecaps, going 6 shutout innings allowing just 5 hits, striking out 4 while walking none. Bowling Green manager Jared Sandberg loved the way he “pounded the zone on both sides of the plate with all his pitches,” and after Bierman has thrown 11 shutout frames to begin his season, the 24 year old Bierman may be ticketed for High-A if he keeps impressing as the Rays try to make up for his advanced age for the level. Bierman was followed by Nick Sawyer, who struggled in his first two outings of the season but was right back to the domination that pervaded his 2012 pro debut on Saturday, going 2 no-hit innings striking out 4 while walking 1. Control has been an issue at times for Sawyer, but his stuff is electric and he was locked in against the Whitecaps. In terms of the lineup, Joey Rickard, Justin O’Conner, and Leonardo Reginatto all had multi-hit games with a double and Tyler Goeddel encouragingly went 1 for 3 with a walk and an RBI as the Hot Rods offense was far from prolific but got plenty given the quality of their pitching. Hopefully the Rays can take the same queue.

Commenter Baltar Asks: What are the Rays going to do for a catcher whenever Jose Molina hangs ‘em up?

The catcher position has been a major weakness for the Rays since… basically the start of the franchise. Dioner Navarro did have an All-Star campaign in 2008, but that’s basically it for the highlights, especially on offense. Even if you set the minimum as low as 200 plate appearances, only Navarro (exactly 100) and John Jaso in 2010 (112) have managed OPS+ marks league average or better (100 is average and each number above that is that much percent better than average). Unfortunately, Navarro’s 2008 season may stand alone as the only All-Star season by a Rays catcher for at least the next several days. The good news, though, is that the Rays may finally end up with an above-average average situation at catcher and maybe even find that elusive franchise catcher they’ve never had in their history.

Other than Molina, the Rays’ major league catchers right now are Jose Lobaton and Chris Gimenez. But at 28 and 30 years old respectively, neither are prospects in any sense of the word and if either is starting for the Rays in two or three years, something will likely have gone horribly wrong. Lobaton has a decent eye at the plate and stands out as a switch-hitter, but he fits much better as a backup thanks to struggles against right-handed pitching and little power. Gimenez actually may actually have more potential after breaking out at Triple-A last season with a new approach at the plate, and his best-case scenario may be carving out a nice career for himself as a late-blooming catcher who can provide decent offense and defense. In all likelihood, though, he looks like another backup and he’s certainly not the future for the Rays at the position.

Things begin to get interesting when we get to the Rays’ only real upper-levels catching prospect, Mark Thomas. Thomas, who turns 25 next month, had a solid season at Double-A Montgomery last year, managing a .254/.323/.383 line with 19 doubles, 5 homers, and 42 RBI in 349 plate appearances, and he’s back with the Biscuits to begin this year as well. Thomas attracts attention primarily for his defense, and in that regard he’s quite special. An athletic 6’1″, 180, Thomas moves extremely well behind the plate and stands out for his receiving, Molina-esque pitch framing, and also a very strong although  arm that has helped him throw out 41% of attempted basestealers in his pro career. Pitchers love working with him and he has a chance to be a Gold Glover if he hits enough to start. His hitting, though, is the big question with him.

Thomas, a right-handed hitter, has shown some flashes at the plate, hitting 18 home runs in 2011 between High-A Charlotte and the Australian Baseball League and finishing extremely strong in 2012, hitting .397 with 4 of his 5 homers on the season in the final month of the minor league season in August. However, he struck out 78 times versus just 29 walks in 2012 and has had major trouble against right-handed pitching as a righty batter, managing just a .229/.286/.343 line the past two years compared to a solid .273/.349/.475 mark versus lefties. Thomas’ defense should get him to the major leagues and his power could make him at least an average major league starter, but he needs serious work with his plate discipline and against righty pitchers before that enters the realm of possibility. Thomas’ likely role over the next few years might be replacing Molina as a defense-first catcher splitting time with someone else, and although he has potential, he’s another player much more likely to be a fringe-starter or backup moving forward.

Behind Thomas, you have three players with considerable upside but also plenty of risk in Luke Bailey, Justin O’Conner, and Oscar Hernandez. Bailey and O’Conner were both high-profile draft picks, but neither has done anything as a pro. Bailey somehow made it to High-A Charlotte last season but had a bad season made worse by injuries, managing just a .231/.277/.393 line with 15 doubles, 7 homers, and 28 RBI in 256 plate appearances. Bailey has big raw power but no plate discipline whatsoever, striking out 67 times versus just 8 walks in 2012, and his defense may be even more of a work in progress. Bailey has a great arm but it’s erratic, and his receiving has a long way to go after he allowed 11 passed balls in just his partial season in 2012. Bailey is still only 22, but the Rays have been waiting for Bailey to break out for four years and it may never happen at this point.

O’Conner, a 1st round pick by the Rays’ in 2010, is only worse right now, only 21 but just starting at Low-A now after three seasons in Short Season ball and owning a .197/.270/.355 line with a 201-55 strikeout-to-walk ratio for his career. O’Conner has even bigger raw power and arm strength than Bailey, but he can’t make contact and needs plenty of development time behind the plate as well. A hip injury that bothered him for all of 2012 and prevented him from catching a single game only made things worse. As with Bailey, the Rays are still hoping that this could be the year O’Conner finally takes a step forward, but if he doesn’t make progress soon he’s going to be converted to the mound as the Rays try to make use of the outstanding arm strength that made Bailey a nationally renowned pitcher in high school.

Then there’s Hernandez, just 19 years old but shockingly and depressingly the most likely of these three to pan out as a catcher. Hernandez caught eyes with an enormous season in the Venezuelan Winter League in 2011, managing a ridiculous .402/.503/.732 line with 14 doubles and 21 home runs in 294 plate appearances, and while he didn’t nearly live up to that standard in his US debut at Rookie-level Princeton in 2012, there’s still plenty to be excited about. Hernandez had a solid season for the P-Rays, managing a .231/.349/.394 line with 9 doubles, 5 homers, 24 RBI, and most impressively, a 31-23 strikeout to walk ratio in 195 plate appearances. Hernandez didn’t hit for much average at all, but he remains impressive for good bat speed and nice raw power and patience. Drawing that many walks while not striking out too much certainly bodes well for Hernandez’s future, and as he improves his pitch recognition over time, he’ll be able to use his patience to find pitches to hit and tap into his power. Defensively, Hernandez has a long way to go but progressed nicely in his US debut, cutting his bassed balls from 12 to 6 while still throwing out 38% of attempted basestealers. He moved well behind the plate and has a good if not great arm and he could be a solid defender someday. Hernandez has a chance to be a great offensive catcher a few years down the line and he has to be the Rays’ catcher of the future, albeit almost by default.

Beyond the players we’ve talked about, sleepers include Taylor Hawkins, who the Rays’ signed to an above-slot bonus after drafting him in the 12th round of the 2012 Draft thanks to big-time power, and Alejandro Segovia, who was never much a prospect but then broke out to a .269/.362/.527 line with 15 homers in 284 plate appearances at Low-A in 2012.

Overall, the Rays’ outlook at the catcher position remains pretty bleak. Lobaton and Gimenez might be halfway-decent, Thomas has a little potential, and then there’s some upside in the form of Hernandez, Bailey, and O’Conner, but everyone is either not very very talented or far from the big leagues and coming with tons of risk. There’s no clear answer on the way and the Rays are going to have to look at acquiring a topflight catching prospect, whether by trading a starting pitcher (if they’re going to deal David Price, they better get an impact catcher) or through the draft.

Baltar’s question happened to come at the perfect time as I’m planning a series on the top catching prospects in the 2013 MLB Draft beginning in just a few days. The Rays’ catching situation has to be improved, and after drafting O’Conner in 2010, the time may have come for the Rays to take a chance on another high school catcher or maybe even a college one early in the draft. We will look at the candidates for that player who could finally give the Rays that solid major league starting catcher they’ve been hoping to find for far too long, and we’ll have to see whether the Rays choose to go that way once June comes around.