Dyer hopes to recapture the glory that he found in Low-A Bowling Green and High-A Charlotte in 2010. (Credit: Flickr user John Setzler)

In the middle rounds of the MLB Draft, the Rays have selected players like Jeremy Hellickson and Alex Cobb who did not stand out for great fastball velocity but impressed for their pitchability and secondary pitches and was worth a chance. As we know, Hellickson and Cobb blossomed into excellent major league pitchers. For a while, it looked like Shane Dyer might join them. Dyer was the Rays’ 6th round pick in the 2008 MLB Draft after hitting 92 MPH in community college with a solid breaking ball, but his two professional seasons were mediocre. In 2010 between Low-A and High-A, though, Dyer finally broke through, going 7-11 with a 2.72 ERA, a 7.2 K/9, a 1.9 BB/9, and a 0.3 HR/9 in 23 starts, a relief appearance, and 135.2 IP. He tossed  3 complete games, the most among all Rays minor leaguers–no one else had more than one–and only Matt Garza matched his totals among the Rays’ MLB totals. Dyer had added a cutter to his arsenal to go along with his fastball and curveball, and suddenly low minors hitters couldn’t handle him. But that was the peak of Dyer’s career and it was all downhill from there.

Dyer managed just a 4.47 ERA at Double-A in 2011, and although he managed a 2.85 mark in his return there in 2012, he got destroyed once coming up to Triple-A, managing just a 7.34 ERA in 9 appearances. The issue was that Dyer’s cutter was his only real plus pitch. Dyer threw an assortment of pitches, mixing in fastballs, cutters, curveballs, and changeups, but his cutter was the only offering he could trust. His fastball was too straight and he couldn’t locate his secondary pitches consistently enough to be effective. Joe Maddon has talked before about how a young pitcher adding a cutter to his arsenal can take away from his other pitches. Dyer was unfortunately the perfect example His cutter  was great and that was enough to beat hitters at A-ball, but his focus on his cutter took his focus off his curveball and changeup and made him unable to miss bats against more advanced hitters. Dyer wasn’t like Hellickson with his changeup or Cobb with his split-change–attacking hitters with a fastball and a cutter with just a 2 MPH difference in velocity wasn’t going to cut it. If Dyer wants to get his career back together, he has to made major strides on his curveball and change and make up for the time he lost on them developing his cutter to become a more complete pitcher and a better one. Dyer is only 25 years old and was talented enough to get a look from the Tigers in their minor league camp before they cut him loose. His career is at its nadir right now, but with enough work he has the ability to get himself back together.

The year before Dyer made his name pitching for High-A Charlotte, 2009, lefty David Newmann began his professional career with the Stone Crabs and did so quite well. A 4th round pick by the Rays in the 2007 MLB Draft, Newmann didn’t make his pro debut until 2009 thanks to signing late and a knee injury. But when he got his career started, Newmann dominated hitters as expected, going 9-6 with a 3.44 ERA, an 8.8 K/9, a 3.2 BB/9, a 0.8 HR/9 in 24 starts and 131 innings pitched. Armed with an excellent sinker, Newmann forced an outstanding 58.6% groundball rate, and combining that with a good curveball and decent changeup gave him the ability to be a number three starter in the major leagues. Unfortunately, Newmann’s career has never looked as optimistic since. Newmann struggled at Double-A Montgomery in 2010, going 3-9 with a 4.50 ERA and an 80-45 strikeout to walk ratio in 114 innings pitched, and that has been his last healthy season.

Injuries limited Nwemann to 4.2 innings in 2011 and not a single one in 2012, and the Rays had finally seen enough, releasing him. For Newmann, now 27 years old, his task is simple: if he proves that he is healthy and has at least a fraction of the stuff that got him on the map as a prospect, he will get another chance. But after the way he has struggled the last three years, Newmann will be forced to do that way down at Independent ball, and it’s going to take all of Newmann’s willpower to keep going, especially if the injuries cause him to struggle early on. After two years spent almost entirely away from the mound didn’t dishearten Newmann, though, finally heading back to the mound, even in unaffiliated ball, will be not a further fall from grace but a step in the right direction as he hopes to pick up the pieces of a once-promising career that hasn’t lost all of its luster yet.

The Rays just kept waiting and waiting for Mike Sheridan to finally come around. A 5th round pick by the Rays in the 2008 MLB Draft, Sheridan, a first baseman, stood out for good bat speed, an immaculate ability to make contact, and decent power. Sheridan continues to show all those traits. He has struck out in just 11.1% of his plate appearances in his career as he continues to make contact as often as anyone and his power has surfaced to an extent as well as he slammed 14 home runs in 2009 and 10 in 2012. But Sheridan’s career has never come together. In 2079 professional plate appearances, his batting line is just .247/.294/.366 (.660 OPS), with his OPS ranging from .620 to .680 in each of his minor league seasons. He hasn’t been terrible, but he has never impressed. What happened?

Sheridan’s career BAbip has been just .264, and that isn’t a case of bad luck–if it should have been .290, the chances of it being that low are just 113 to 1 (.0089 probability). Sheridan just isn’t making enough high-quality contact to hit well. It’s great that he’s making contact in general, and that is what has given him a measure of consistency in his career. However, he’s not hitting for average or much power because his plate discipline hasn’t been up to par. According to Minor League Central, Sheridan swung at pitches outside the strike zone 13.3% of the time, exactly the league average–it’s not that he doesn’t know the strike zone. Instead, the issue is that Sheridan isn’t being patient enough within the zone, making too much contact and hitting the ball weakly way too often. He’s not getting the ball on the barrel enough, and as a hitter without much power, that has to change immediately. Sheridan, a lefty batter, also has struggled versus lefties, managing just a .208/.235/.308 line the last two years. But despite everything, Sheridan still has promise. He’s only 25 years old, plays great defense at first base, and still has quality the bat speed. The question is going to be whether he can change his approach at the plate to maximize his talent and give himself a chance, and after years of struggles, that will have to come at independent ball. The scouting report that caused Sheridan to stand out to the Rays in 2008 still holds entirely true. Now it’s up to him to fix the underlying parts of his game that have held him back, and if he can do that, maybe everything will change.

Shane Dyer, David Newmann, and Mike Sheridan are not players with little talent holding onto a major league dream that undeniably won’t happen. They are all players who still have something left, and while their chances look as bleak as ever, they are one each breakthrough away from turning their careers around and getting themselves one more opportunity in affiliated ball and just maybe in the major leagues someday. They are all competing separately, but nevertheless having former teammates next to them with the Laredo Lemurs will all help them significantly. It will allow them to retain a sense of familiarity as they enter a path the likes of which they have never seen before, and whenever they think about giving up, they can be inspired once more by looking out and seeing their former teammates in the same position as them still trying. The odds are that this is the last we’ve seen of Shane Dyer, David Newmann, and Michael Sheridan in baseball. But with untapped potential remaining, teammates in it with them for the long haul, and a determination not to let this be the way their careers end, Dyer, Newmann, and Sheridan are going to do everything they can hoping and dreaming that a promising future is still ahead.

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(Hat tip to the @RaysProspects Twitter account for reporting that Dyer, Newmann, and Sheridan were all with the Lemurs.)

First Base

Michael Sheridan, who turned 25 in August, was a 5th round pick by the Rays out of William and Mary back in 2008 as an athletic 6’2″, 205 first baseman with a smooth lefty swing. The fact that 2012 was his best minor league season was not a good thing as he really was not that impressive. Sheridan managed just a .246/.301/.379 line in 129 games and 511 plate appearances for the Biscuits with 24 doubles, 10 homers, 58 RBI, 3 of 7 stolen bases, and a 69-38 strikeout to walk ratio. Sheridan’s bat speed is fine and he makes a ton of contact, but his issue has always been making quality contact and bringing out his solid power on a consistent basis. Sheridan’s understands the strike zone, managing a 13.3% O-Swing% (swings on pitches outside the strike zone) that was exactly league average according to Minor League Central, but overaggressiveness within the zone has been Sheridan’s downfall, not just limiting his walks but preventing him from barreling the ball nearly as much as he should. Only big-time power hitters can continuously hit for power without waiting for the right pitch to drive- Sheridan is far from a big-time power hitter and needs to make a significant change to his approach to have a big league future. Another major issue for Sheridan is struggles against left-handed pitching as he managed just a .192/.228/.291 line with 29 strikeouts against 6 walks in 2012, proving especially vulnerable to lefty breaking balls. Even as a great defensive first baseman, Sheridan’s career is going nowhere unless he makes major adjustments to improve his patience and hit for more power. Sheridan repeated High-A in 2011 and he will likely do the same thing at Double-A in 2012.

Second Base

The two players who manned second base for the Biscuits in 2012 have both been traded: Tyler Bortnick and Derek Dietrich. I gave final thoughts on Bortnick and Dietrich as members of the Rays organization here and here.

Third Base

At first glance, Greg Sexton has everything in common with Michael Sheridan. Like Sheridan, he’s 6’2″, 205 and was drafted out of William and Mary (10th round, 2007). And although he can play first base while Sheridan can’t and is a righty as opposed to a lefty, he’s a very similar type of hitter, making a lot of contact but hitting for little power. In 2012, Sexton had a halfway-decent season as he dealt with injuries, managing a .235/.327/.377 line with 20 doubles, 5 homers, 30 RBI, and a 39-34 strikeout to walk ratio in 79 games and 286 plate appearances. Those numbers can be taken with a grain of salt as Sexton turns 28 next month, meaning he’s two and a half years older than Sheridan. However, even in an injury-riddled year, his .704 OPS was higher than Sheridan (no, that’s not a knock on Sheridan) and you can call me crazy, but I think there’s reason to be intrigued. Sexton’s .142 isolated power was far from impressive, but it was the highest mark of his career by a wide margin- his career ISO is just .104 and his previous career-high was .120 back in 2008. And that high ISO was despite the fact that Sexton didn’t strike out at all, just 13.5% of his plate appearances, with a major reason for his newfound power being that he walked at an outstanding rate of 12.1%. Essentially Sexton played like Sheridan but with more power and better plate discipline. And by the way, Sexton’s walk rate was significantly better than his 8.1% career mark (.009 probability it occurred by chance alone). But there’s more.

Sexton’s platoon split on the season was pretty bizarre. Against same-side pitchers, he was outstanding, managing a .267/.357/.452 line (notice the .185 ISO) with 15 doubles, 4 homers, 24 RBI, and a 25-20 strikeout to walk ratio in 170 plate appearances. Against lefties, who as a right-handed hitter he’s supposed to mash, Sexton could only put up a .175/.279/.227 line with just 5 doubles, no homers, and 4 RBI in 111 PA’s. However, his strikeout to walk ratio was actually a great 13-14, indicating his approach against them was fine, and if he can start hitting for more power against lefties, suddenly he’s a pretty good all-around hitter, and as a decent defensive third baseman with an excellent arm, a future in the big leagues would be in order. All of this analysis is dependent upon the assumption that Sexton’s increased patience in 2012 was a real breakthrough and not simply a product of being a veteran player spending his second straight season at Double-A. That assumption could very well be flawed and in all probability, Sexton will dip back into mediocrity next season. But if Sexton has really turned a corner, he could still have a promising future ahead. Maybe Sexton’s 2012 stats are just a big aberration and I’m getting worked up over absolutely nothing. But there’s also a chance that Sexton is really a late bloomer and will come through when the Rays give him an opportunity to continue to prove himself next season. Sexton may start 2013 back at Montgomery, but if he’s really taken a step forward, a promotion to Triple-A Durham will be in the wings and the question will be whether he’ll keep hitting once he gets there.

Shortstop

What do you think about when someone says the words “polarizing prospect?” Every prospect-watcher would tell you something else, but my first reaction would probably be a toolsy position player with trouble making contact or a pitcher who has electric stuff but struggles with control. The Rays, like every organization in baseball, have a plethora of players who fit that profile. But the title of most polarizing prospect in the Rays system may have to go to Hak-Ju Lee. Lee, who turned 22 in November, was acquired by the Rays in the Matt Garza trade and has always stood out for unbelievable, Gold Glove caliber defense at shortstop. Go to a game that Lee plays in and there’s a very good chance you’ll see him make a play that just about every other shortstop in baseball couldn’t make- and make it look it easy. (When I saw him in spring training, he went to his left on a ball deep in the hole and then gloved it, spun, and fired a perfect throw like it was nothing.) But regarding Lee’s offense, no one is sure exactly what to expect.

In 2012, Lee was unimpressive, managing just a .261/.336/.360 line with 15 doubles, 10 triples, 4 homers, 37 RBI, 37 of 46 stolen bases, and a 102-51 strikeout to walk ratio in 116 games and 534 plate appearances. Yes, we know he’s incredibly fast, as you can see from his triples and stolen bases, and he’s also a good bunter. But he hits for very little power and strikes out way too often for a hitter with so little power. Lee is a player with the type of 6’2″, 170 frame that might prompt suggestions of power projection if you were talking about another player, but Lee moves naturally with such a lean, athletic frame and expecting him to fill out more than a few pounds and develop solid power would be misguided. Lee features good bat speed as a lefty batter, but he’s primarily a tap hitter and a bad one at that given the fact that he struck out 19.1% of his plate appearances. Lee has solid pitch recognition skills and understands the strike zone, but he has worked hard to improve his patience never to see results. Why? Because he had trouble discerning which pitches to hit within the strike zone and ended up swinging and making weak contact in in the form of groundballs or missing his pitches to hit and instead fouling them off and getting himself behind in the count, leading to a lot of his strikeouts.  To get on base more and make better contact, Lee has to understand when to swing hard and when to work the count and find the perfect balance of passivity and aggressiveness. Instead of just taking pitches to work the count, Lee has to change his focus to using his patience as a method of finding pitches he can put a good swing on. As a hitter who’s never going to be feared and will likely hit at the bottom of a major league lineup his entire career, Lee has to squeeze every ounce of offense he can out of himself in order to profile as a starting shortstop.

Other than the philosophy at the plate that he will have to change, Lee also needs to find a way to hit left-handed pitching. Lee was about as good as you could expect him to be against righties in 2012, managing a .278/.360/.405 line with 25 of his 29 extra-base hits and a 62-38 strikeout to walk ratio, but against lefties he could only put up a .225/.284/.272 line with 40 strikeouts against 13 walks. Lee had a little trouble against offspeed pitches from same-side pitchers, but his principle issue was this same issue of trying too hard to work the count, forcing himself to bat from behind to often and reducing his opportunities to walk and make good contact. If Lee can do a better job using his patience to find pitches to drive, his issues versus lefties should be mostly mitigated as well. No one expects Lee to ever become that great of a hitter, but he has the ability to become a player who can hit for a decent average, draw his fair share 0f walks, and even smack a few balls to the gaps on his way to being an average or slightly below-average offensive shortstop, all anyone is asking him to be given his defense. Lee is the Rays’ undisputed Rays shortstop of the future at this point- but for him to realize his potential, he has to adjust his approach at the plate to take advantage of the talent he has and become the player the Rays know he has the ability to be. Lee will play 2013 at Triple-A Durham working as Tim Beckham‘s double play partner. If he can make strides at the plate, he’ll be in the big leagues in September.

Here’s where we’ll end this segment of our analysis of the Biscuits after wrapping up the prospects we’ll cover on the Biscuits infield. It’s clear that Hak-Ju Lee has the ability to be quite a player for the Rays within a few years and the key with him is going to be to make those last few offense adjustments so he’ll be able to hold his own offensively in the major leagues, while Sexton and Sheridan have sleeper potential and could two more players who could see time with the Rays over the next few years. Nothing is guaranteed for any Double-A, but the Rays are confident that Lee will be able to take the next step at the plate and headline of group of impact position player prospects from this 2012 Biscuits team.

For more of our analysis on the Biscuits and the rest of the Rays’ minor league system, check out our Minor League Affiliates Analysis page here at RCG.

Triple-A All-Star Game: Pacific Coast League All-Stars 3, International League All-Stars 0

Another shutout loss in the All-Star Game, although this one wasn’t as bad. The Durham Bulls’ representatives in this game were right fielder Leslie Anderson and right-hander Dane De La Rosa, and both played well. Anderson batted second for the International League and went 2 for 3, while De La Rosa tossed a shutout 7th inning, allowing a hit and a walk while striking out 2. Former Bulls included Chris Bootcheck, who tossed 0.2 scoreless for the IL, and the one, the only Dan Johnson, who went 0 for 2. Everyone knows he’s only good in the clutch.

Double-A Southern League: Montgomery Biscuits 6, Jacksonville Suns (MIA) 2

 A series of breakthrough performances made Wednesday a great night for the Biscuits. Nick Barnese finally put something together, going 5.1 innings allowing 2 runs, neither earned, on 5 hits, striking out 2 while walking none and posting a decent 5-3 groundout to flyout ratio. Hopefully he has made real progress now. Joseph Cruz and Adam Liberatore pitched the last 3.2 innings, allowing just 1 hit between the two of them and striking out 3 while walking none. On offense, Michael Sheridan had a huge game, going 2 for 4 with a homer, a double, 3 RBI, and 2 runs scored, Brad Coon had a 2-run single, and Tyler Bortnick and Ty Morrison each went 2 for 4 with a run scored, with Morrison also stealing a base. And then there’s Hak-Ju Lee, who hit a 9th inning RBI double to extend his hitting streak to 21 games, a Biscuits record.

What a game by Lara and the Stone Crabs! (Flickr user BeGreen90)

High-A Florida State League: Charlotte Stone Crabs 3, Lakeland Flying Tigers 2

Craziest game of the season, maybe craziest game I have ever seen. Wild chain of events for Hector Guevara in this one. He doubled to lead off the game- but then he was picked off second base. In the third inning, Guevara hit a go-ahead RBI single. And then he ruined it for his teammate, right-hander Braulio Lara. Lara had a perfect game through 4 innings, but things came apart a little bit in the 5th. The perfect game ended on a Wade Gaynor walk, then Daniel Fields beat out an infield single to deep short to break up the perfect game. Then Hernan Perez bunted the ball in front of home plate. Lucas Bailey fielded and threw to the second baseman Guevara covering first base, but Guevara missed the catch and let the ball get by him, scoring the tying run and giving the Flying Tigers runners on 2nd and 3rd with nobody out. Lara then forced James Robbins to ground out back to the mound, holding the runners, and then Dixon Machado grounded out for what should have been the third out of the inning, but instead scored a second run before Lara got Adolfo Reina to ground out to end the inning. Lara went 7 innings allowing 2 runs, neither earned, on just 1 hit, striking out 2 and walking 2 as well but posting a nice 12-5 groundout to flyout ratio. That from a player with just a 1.03 groundout to flyout ratio on the season. It was an outstanding start, yet Lara could not win the game, only lose. Jared Wesson allowed 5 hits but just 1 run in 7 innings for Lakeland and left in line for the win.

Jim Patterson tossed a perfect 8th for the Stone Crabs to keep the 1-hitter going and the Stone Crabs within a run. In the bottom of the inning, the hitters due up were Bailey, Cody Rogers, and Guevara against Guido Knudson. Bailey struck out to begin the inning before Rogers worked a walk to bring Guevara to the game. With a big hit, Guevara could be the hero. If he failed, he was the goat who ruined Lara’s gem. Guevara chose the former. Guevara drilled a flyball to deep left field and over the wall for a 2-run home run, and Chris Rearick tossed a perfect 9th for the save as the Stone Crabs emerged victorious 3-2. Wow.

Low-A Midwest League: Bowling Green Hot Rods 3, Burlington Bees (OAK) 1

A’s hard-throwing RHP prospect A.J. Cole has been nearly unhittable this year in the Midwest League, posting a 2.44 ERA entering his start Wednesday with an insane 5.78 strikeout to walk ratio, a 10.6 K/9 versus just a 1.8 BB/9. Beating him was going to be a major challenge. Yet they pulled it off. Trevor Shull tossed 4 great innings, tossing shutout ball in 2 hits, striking out 4 while walking none and posting a 5-1 groundout to flyout ratio. Jacob Partridge followed with an incredible relief effort, going the rest of the game, 5 innings, allowing just 1 run on 3 hits, striking out 5 while walking 1. Cole pitched great as well. But his defense made a couple errors behind him and the Hot Rods did not let the opportunity pass them by, scoring 3 times in 6th on a Juniel Querecuto RBI single and then a Drew Vettleson 2-run double. Cole went 5.1 innings allowing 3 runs, 1 earned, on 5 hits, striking out 5 while walking none and posting a 7-2 groundout to flyout ratio. But the Hot Rods pitching was incredible and the bats came through when they had a chance. Vettleson went 2 for 4 with the huge 2-run double, while Tyler Goeddel went 2 for 4 with his 21st stolen base of the season and a run scored.

Short Season-A New York-Penn League: Batavia Muckdogs (STL) 4, Hudson Valley Renegades 2

Joey Rickard was great again in his second pro game, but the Renegades couldn’t muster much else as they fell to Batavia. Jesse Hahn got the start for Hudson Valley and struggled despite some positive signs, allowing 3 runs on 5 hits in 3 innings, striking out 4 while walking 1 and posting a 3-1 groundout to flyout ratio. Eduar Quinonez followed him up with 4 shutout innings, allowing 4 hits and a walk while striking out 3, before Kris Carlson allowed a David Washington homer in the 9th. The offense for Hudson Valley was… Joey Rickard. He did it all. Batting leadoff a playing centerfield, he went 3 for 4 with 3 stolen bases, an RBI, and a run scored. The Renegades mustered just 6 hits, 3 by Rickard, with Justin O’Conner having the other RBI. But if Rickard can keep playing like this, no doubt he’ll be a spark to this team to get it going.

Rookie Gulf Coast League: Game 1: GCL Red Sox 2, GCL Rays 0 (7 innings)

You have to feel for Geisel De La Cruz. You have to listen to these numbers. He went 4.2 innings allowing 2 runs on 8 hits, striking out 4 while walking none. Here’s the kicker: his groundout to flyout ratio was 9-1! His groundball to flyball ratio was 14-1! Yes, 5 of the 8 hits he allowed were on groundballs! Even when you add in line drives and pop-ups, he still had a 14-4 ratio of groundballs to balls hit in the air. De La Cruz has been incredible and is getting messed up (to put it nicely) by his defense. Sheesh. Bralin Jackson also went 1 for 2 with a triple and a walk for the GCL Rays.

Game 2: GCL Rays 7, GCL Red Sox 3 (7 innings)

The GCL Rays actually scored some runs and won this one. Stepan Havlicek pitched pretty nicely, going 4 shutout innings allowing 2 hits and a walk while striking out 3 and posting a 2-2 groundout to flyout ratio. Damion Carroll relieved him but struggled in this one, going 1+ innings allowing 1 run on 3 hits and 3 walks, striking out just 1. Ouch. He could have legitimately allowed 3 or 4 runs, but Jason Wilson bailed him out in the 6th before allowing a couple of runs of the 7th. Wilson did strike out 3 in 2 innings. The offense gets more of the focus here. Jiminson Natera had a great game, going 3 for 4 with a 2-run homer, Johnny Eierman went 2 for 3 with a double, a walk 2 RBI, and a run scored, and Douglas Duran went 2 for 2 with a walk, an RBI, and a run scored.