One year, 5 million dollars. This from a player who made 9.4 million dollars in 2012 and is just two years removed from a season where he hit to a .320/.414/.631 line, a ridiculous 173 OPS+, with 25 doubles, 30 homers, and 75 RBI in 432 plate appearances. Even Napoli’s numbers in an off-year in 2012 were numbers many players would covet as he managed a .227/.343/.469 line (110 OPS+) with 24 home runs. After a season like that, it seemed like Napoli might be looking for one- or two-year deal to try to reestablish his value and get a long-term deal a year or two from now. But as it turns out, even though Napoli has never been a good player defensively at catcher, his ability to hit and hit for power just as well as he does while having the ability to catch on a semi-regular basis left his value still quite high even after his down season, leading to his signing a three-year, 39 million dollar contract with the Red Sox back in December. Now that his hip injury, though, it seems to make a lot of sense that Napoli would end up with an incentive-laden one-year deal. But was the Red Sox’ contract really the best offer?

Mike Napoli isn’t necessarily going to go on the DL next season. He was diagnosed with avascular necrosis in both of his hips, and so far the condition has been symptomless. Napoli is set to play a lot of first base for the Red Sox, and that should also help him keep his chances of staying healthy as high as possible. But Napoli has a problem, and pain in his hips that sidelines him could be inevitable. According to the U.S. National Library of Medicine, a couple of the main symptoms of avascular necrosis are gradually increasing pain in the hip joint and eventually a limited range of motion in the joint. Napoli has not reached that point yet and it’s not clear when that will happen, but if the pain becomes too much to bear and Napoli’s slowly decreasing maneuverability in his hip joint begin to affect his play, he’s going to eventually require surgery. With Napoli facing a situation like this, wouldn’t he aim for financial security? Napoli could earn 13 million dollars in 2013 if he stays healthy and plays well, but if he gets hurt and misses a significant portion of the year, he will have made 5 million dollars for 2013 and be stuck looking for another contract with a low-base salary following the year. No team would have been willing to offer Napoli a two-year deal at say 14 or 15 million dollars? No team would have agreed with Napoli on a contract with a player option to protect him should he get hurt? Obviously both of those contracts have the signing team assuming risk, but when the player is as talented as Mike Napoli wouldn’t some team be willing to take it?

Napoli told Ben Nicholson-Smith of MLB Trade Rumors that “the best fit for me was in Boston.” Why was that? Don’t say that it’s because they have the catching depth to let him play first base because any number of teams could have done that (for example, if the Rays had signed him, they would have started him everyday at first base against lefties while having him play some DH and doing some catching against righties). Is it Fenway Park? That could very well be a factor because of how strong of a hitter’s park it is and how it could give Napoli a better chance at a big deal following the season because it gives him an opportunity to put up significantly better numbers (especially compared to a pitcher’s ballpark like the Trop). But is that enough to warrant sacrificing financial security? How is that possible? The answer is that we have to take into account more than just physical benefits for playing for Boston but psychological ones as well. If Napoli had been all set to sign the big three-year deal with Boston but then had learned about the knee injury and headed elsewhere, it would have been a major letdown as not only would the multi-deal he had waited his entire career for have come and gone, but he also would have missed his opportunity to play in the organization that he considered the possible fit for him. Especially if Napoli were to stay healthy in 2013 while playing for a different team but not live up to the standard expected of him offensively, he would always have to wonder how things would have changed had he decided to renegotiate with the Red Sox and come to Boston even after the multi-year pact fell part.

It was not nearly the way he expected it would happen and the salary figure was far lower than he thought it would be, but Mike Napoli got his wish, ending up in Boston with the Red Sox. Teams like the Rays would have hoped that Napoli might reconsider joining the Red Sox after his hip issue was diagnosed, but considering how much Napoli was looking forward to joining the Red Sox and simply the way everything transpired, that was never something that was realistically going to happen.

Back in November, we discussed Napoli as a possible target for the Rays, concluding that he would be a major addition to the Rays lineup, but even if Napoli had to settle for a 1-year deal, the money just didn’t work. Now, two big things have changed: firstly, the news of Napoli’s hip concern, and secondly, the Rays’ trade of James Shields and Wade Davis to the Kansas City Royals, which primarily set the Rays up for the future but also saved the Rays 13.05 million dollars in salaries for 2013, which may give the Rays a bit more financial flexibility. Do those two factors change anything regarding the Rays’ pursuit of Napoli?

There are two ways to look at Napoli’s injury as it pertains to his free agency this offseason. The first line of thinking is that now is the perfect time for Napoli to sign a multi-year deal knowing that his injury clouds the future for him and he better take as much guaranteed money that he can get. However, the flip-side is that Napoli should sign a one-year deal, prove himself to be healthy, and set himself up for a big multi-year contract next year. Especially when you consider that Napoli was already coming off a down year, managing just a 110 OPS+ that was his lowest mark since 2007 after putting up a 173 OPS+ in 2011, Napoli could be a perfect fit for the type of pillow contract that ex-teammate Adrian Beltre signed with the Boston Red Sox for the 2010 season before landing his big free agent contract with the Texas Rangers. In that contract, Beltre made 9 million dollars in 2010 and had a 5 million dollar player option for 2011 which he declined, and agreeing to that same type of deal would give Napoli the ability to go back on the market after 2013 if he stays healthy and the year goes well, and if he were to get hurt or struggle again, at least he would have some financial security. The parallel also stretches further because Beltre missed time in 2009 after undergoing shoulder surgery and injury was an additional concern for him beyond simply poor performance. Could a team offer Beltre a contact like that? Could that team be the Rays?

The Rays are not going to go in for 9 million dollars on a player with a preexisting injury coming off a down year. But if Napoli offers them a bit of a hometown discount- he was born in Hollywood, Florida- and get the price down to closer to 7 or 8 million dollars, he would have to be a player they would take a long look at taking a shot on. Would they offer him a second year option like Beltre’s deal? Their policy has been to do the exact opposite, to tack on team options to deals, but if a one year option at a low annual value is all it would take, it’s very hard to see them turning that down. Napoli could a major contributor for the Rays- he has hit 20 or more home runs the last five seasons while managing a 131 OPS+, and the Rays have at-bats to offer him at catcher (his preferred position), first base, and designated hitter. If they can get him for the right price, they’ll jump on the opportunity.

It will be extremely interesting to see just how much Mike Napoli’s value has fallen because of his hip injury and what his strategy will be in wake of that. Anything can happen at this point and the next few weeks will be exciting as we find out exactly how Napoli’s renewed free agency will transpire. If a short-term deal becomes a possibility and the price gets low enough- two big but also conceivable “ifs”- we may just see a major reversal in the AL East as Napoli could go from being all but in a Red Sox uniform to calling Tampa Bay his home for 2013.

Napoli, who turned 31 at the end of October, is coming off a 2012 season that fell far short of the precedent set by his outstanding 2011, posting a .227/.343/.469 line (110 OPS+) with 9 doubles, 24 homers, 56 RBI, and 125 strikeouts against 56 walks in 108 games and 417 plate appearances. Defensively, he continued to be well below-average at both catcher and first base, allowing 8 passed balls while managing just a 21% caught stealing percentage in 69 games at catcher, and posting just a .984 fielding percentage in 28 games in first base. He made 9.4 million dolars in 2012 but will surely make less than that next season. Napoli might have a shot at a multi-year deal this offseason, but his best bet could be to take a 1-year contract and reestablish his value to set him up for a bigger payday after 2013. If Napoli is available on a 1 year deal worth to 4 or 5 million dollars, the Rays would absolutely have interest. But is such a scenario realistic?

Napoli is a Florida native, albeit in Southwest Florida 3 to 4 hours away from St. Petersburg, and the Rays would hope that he might give them something of a hometown discount. If the price for Napoli does not get too high, the Rays could make the case to Napoli that they’re the best possible fit for him. They have at-bats available for Napoli at catcher, first base, and designated hitter and he would also have the opportunity to be right in the middle of the Rays lineup, batting fourth or fifth. But how much should the Rays really want Napoli?

The Rays have said again and again that they’re a team built on pitching and defense. Mike Napoli goes against that being a well below-average defender, unless the Rays are going to make him their primary DH, not a bad option except for the fact that Napoli has always been most comfortable hitting at catcher. Napoli has a .287/.392/.573 career line playing designated hitter, but that is in just 48 games and 186 plate appearances. But the difference between Napoli’s performance at catcher and first base is much more concerning. Napoli has a .265/.362/.516 line in 511 games and 1593 plate appearances as a catcher versus just a .239/.328/.473 line in 125 games and 475 plate appearances at first base, not nearly as big of a sample as he has at first base, but nothing to gawk at. Baseball players are creatures of habit and it would be tough for Napoli to suddenly become a starting first baseman or designated hitter. If Napoli signed with the Rays, he would likely have to catch at least two to three times per week to be comfortable defensively. Could the Rays handle having a well-below average defensive catcher behind the plate so often? If Napoli was hitting, then absolutely. Is there any reason for concern after Napoli’s batting average slipped from .320 to .227 from 2011 to 2012?

It takes quite a free-fall to manage .320/.414/.615 line (173 OPS+) in 432 plate appearances one year and just a .227/.343/.469 line (110 OPS+) in 417 plate appearances the next. The big difference for Napoli was strikeouts- his strikeout rate jumped from a solid 19.7% mark all the way to 30.0%, which would have been fourth-highest in the American League had he qualified (Carlos Pena was second-highest). Napoli, apparently feeling the pressure of his contract year, sold out for power and it did not go well, swinging-and-missing far too often and hitting a lot of routine flyballs as his batting average suffered. Tampa Bay could be a nice place for Napoli to relax and get on track in a small market in his home state- but Napoli still managed great offensive production for a catcher in a down year and his 2012 struggles will not preclude teams from pursuing him.

The Rays would love to land Mike Napoli this offseason. His defense is far from ideal, but the Rays need a big bat in the heart of their lineup and Napoli can provide exactly that. But Napoli is extremely unlikely to stay in the Rays’ price range. Power-hitting catchers are a hot commodity and Napoli will have plenty of suitors. Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe talked about how Napoli’s right-handed swing is geared towards Fenway and that he could fill the Red Sox’ need at first base while also getting starts at catcher. Napoli could be a perfect candidate for a deal like what the Red Sox gave Adrian Beltre following the 2009 season, a 1-year, 9 million dollar contract with a player option for a second year, although Napoli would more likely make 6 or 7 million dollars. The Rays can’t afford to match that knowing how it would cripple them financially should Napoli struggle, especially a consideration as Napoli would be going from one of the best hitter’s ballparks in baseball to one of the very worst. At the end of the day, we can dream about the Rays signing Napoli, but the chances appear to be slim.