Last week, Chris Archer was sent down to the minor leagues. Bue despite that happening, Joe Maddon had this to say.

For sure, we believe Archer could be here right now.

So Chris Archer is ready for the major leagues, and nevertheless the Rays sent him down to minor league camp with three weeks left in camp. He never had a realistic chance to win a rotation spot. And even though the Rays saw firsthand just how talented he is in his six major league appearances in 2012, the Rays are sending him down with no return to the big leagues in sight and there’s a reasonable chance that he’ll spend most of 2013 back in the minor leagues. How does that make any sense? What are the Rays thinking?

The Rays have been lucky enough the past several years to have a rotation surplus, having six or seven quality major league pitchers without enough places to put them all. But the side-effect of that has been situations like Archer where pitchers who would be a key part of the rotation for 24 or 25 of the other teams in baseball are stuck at Triple-A simply waiting for a chance. It seems crazy- the Rays have always had offensive struggles, and why don’t they trade more of their pitchers for bats? But let’s see if the Rays are truly justified or not. This has been going on for years now and we have an actual sample size to look at, and let’s see how the Rays have done.

Jeff Niemann

Jeff Niemann was the 4th overall pick by the Devil Rays in 2004 and in 2007 he finally broke through, going 12-6 with a 3.98 ERA, an 8.5 K/9, a 3.2 BB/9, and a 0.9 HR/9 in 25 starts and 131 IP. Then he began 2008 in the Rays’ rotation and tossed 6 one-run innings with 5 strikeouts to earn a win in his major league debut. But after just one more start, Niemann was sent down to the minor leagues, making 24 starts at Triple-A before finally returning to the major leagues in September. How did he turn out? Niemann’s upside was reduced substantially by that point thanks to shoulder problems, but he’s been able to become basically that same pitcher he was at Triple-A when healthy, managing a 4.08 ERA and a 4.31 FIP in 544.1 innings pitched.

Wade Davis

Wade Davis was selected by the Rays two rounds after Niemann in 2004 and quickly emerged as a top prospect. The Rays were very careful with him, though, and it wasn’t until 2008 at age 22 that he reached Triple-A. That year, he went 13-8 with a 3.47 ERA, a 7.6 K/9, a 3.7 BB/9, and a 0.7 HR/9 in 28 starts and 160.2 innings pitched. He was especially impressive in 9 starts at Triple-A to end the year, going 4-2 with a 2.72 ERA, a 9.3 K/9, a 4.1 BB/9, and a 0.8 HR/9 in 53 IP. But the Rays kept him in Triple-A until September of 2008, even as he pitched to a 3.40 ERA and a 140-60 strikeout to walk ratio in 28 starts and 158.2 IP and their team collapsed in the second half. Davis looked electric in his 6 September starts, striking out 36 batters in 36.1 IP, and went 12-10 with a 4.07 ERA on his way to a 4th place finish in the 2010 Rookie of the Year voting and subsequently a contract extension, but he fell apart in 2011 before thriving in the bullpen in 2012. Then, of course, he was traded to the Kansas City Royals as part of the Wil Myers trade in December of 2012. So was keeping Davis in the minors the right move? It’s close but we have to stay no. Davis was blowing by Triple-A hitters but he was never able to adjust to big league pitching out of the rotation,  managing just a 1.74-to-1 strikeout to walk ratio in his two full seasons as a starter in 2010 and 2011 (with inconsistent secondary pitches being the primary culprit), and getting a few more starts in 2009 could have made all the difference.

Mitch Talbot

Davis was debatable, but Talbot was an unqualified disaster. Acquired by the Rays with Ben Zobrist in the Aubrey Huff trade, Talbot was lights-out in his second go-around at Triple-A in 2008 going 13-9 with a 3.86 ERA, a 7.9 K/9, a 2.0 BB/9, and a 0.5 HR/9 in 28 starts and 161 innings pitched. Nevertheless, he made just 3 appearances in the major leagues at the end of the year and began the next year back at Triple-A. He was pitching incredibly, managing a 3.69 ERA and a 67-18 strikeout to walk ratio in 68.1 innings pitched, when he went down with an elbow sprain, and he hasn’t been the same since. Maybe he would have gotten that same injury had he been in the major leagues, or maybe he could have been overexerting himself trying to prove the Rays that he belonged in the majors.

Jeremy Hellickson

Hellickson was the Rays’ 4th round pick in 2005 and dominated almost from the moment he joined the professional ranks. He was at his absolute finest as he cracked Triple-A for the first time in 200, going 9-2 with a 2.45 ERA, a 10.4 K/9, a 2.3 BB/9, and a 0.6 HR/9 in 20 starts (9 of which came at Triple-A) and 114 IP. It wasn’t until the end of 2010 that he finally reached the majors, though, and it took Matt Garza being traded for him to finally get a Rays rotation spot. He has put up a sparkly 3.02 ERA in the two years since, although his 241-131 strikeout to walk ratio and 1.1 HR/9 are all at least somewhat concerning for his ability to keep pitching that way moving forward. Hellickson has pitched very well, so you have to grade him as a success, but at the same time, it’s taken a while for Hellickson to adjust to the major leagues- only this past season did he finally get his curveball to become a more consistent weapon (which is the biggest reason why he has the ability to keep his ERA right where it is)- and considering he had nothing to prove at Triple-A, figuring out more things at the big league level could have only expedited his development.

Alex Torres

Torres, acquired in the Scott Kazmir trade, followed in Kazmir’s footsteps as an enigmatic lefty but one with electric stuff, and he impressed in his first crack at Triple-A in 2011, going 9-7 with a 3.08 ERA, a 9.6 K/9, a 5.1 BB/9, and a 0.4 HR/9 in 27 starts and 146.1 innings pitched. He had his problems with walks, but he also led the International League in strikeouts and pitched very well for the Rays in September, including 5 shutout innings with 5 strikeouts on September 24th versus the Blue Jays after Niemann was knocked out early to help the Rays to a huge win. But Torres didn’t even have a chance to make the Rays’ rotation in 2012 and that frustration had to play a part in his horrific 2012 as he went just 3-8 with a 6.72 ERA, a 12.1 K/9, a 7.5 BB/9, and a 0.7 HR/9 in 18 starts, 12 relief appearances, and 80.1 innings pitched. The good news is that Torres rebounded in a huge way at Winter Ball and still has a chance to be a 4th or 5th starter or at least a middle reliever in the major leagues, but not having any chance to make the major leagues had to have an impact on Torres and the Rays keeping him down was disastrous.

Looking at these five pitchers, the Rays’ strategy of keeping the Rays in the minor leagues has not worked very well. None of them gained anything by staying in the minor leagues, and at best they stayed strong and at worst the psychological anguish of being stuck in Triple-A got to them and they imploded spectacularly. All of these pitchers’ issues were cleary not only the fault of the Rays for keeping them in the minors. However, there’s a certain amount of development that has to happen at the major leagues, and the Rays haven’t let these pitchers get any of that.

One critical thing to note is that for the Rays’ most talented pitchers, they don’t follow this gameplan- David Price and Matt Moore were rushed at least a little bit to get to the majors, and that was clearly because the Rays recognize just how talented they are. But overall, this strategy isn’t one that appears to help in any way and only makes things worse, and the Rays need to find a happy medium between rushing their pitchers and leaving them in the minors too long. That’s a narrow-minded standpoint, though- that’s only taking into account the pictures involved and not all the other benefits that having surplus pitchers in the minors has for the Rays and also the fact that development of their pitching prospects isn’t the Rays’ primary focus- it’s winning games.

Just because a pitcher is big league ready doesn’t mean he’s even close to reaching his potential and you can look no further than David Price’s struggles in 2009 just before his second place finish in the Cy Young in 2010 to see that. The Rays would love to have all their pitching prospects continue their development at the major league level, but that’s impossible and they just have to do the best they can. And even if the prospects who are stranded in Triple-A are losing development time, they may very well be worth the trade-off for the injury insurance they provide to the Rays’ big league starting rotation. And then there’s also the matter of the money the Rays save by keeping their pitchers in the minors. Even if the net result for the pitching prospects may be negative, the overall result for the Rays has been at least a marginal gain. Going from one extreme in rushing pitchers to the other in keeping them at Triple-A may not be the best move for the Rays and they will look to fine-tune that moving forward. But despite all the evidence otherwise, the Rays keeping their pitchers in the minors longer has worked out for their team and although it’s frustrating, the Rays know what they’re doing.

Every pitcher is different, and in Chris Archer’s case he is known for great intangibles so he may fare better than most. Archer also needs work on his control and changeup, and getting more of that before he heads to the major leagues certainly wouldn’t hurt. It has to be frustrating for Archer heading back to the minor leagues, and the Rays’ best hope for him may have to be for him to just tread water and bide time until a rotation spot opens up for him. But between the insurance he will provide for their starting five, the struggles he’ll inevitably have once he arrives in the majors, and the money the Rays will save, it’s a move that makes sense and looks to be the best for the team moving forward. It seems ridiculous and maybe it is, but the Rays have found a formula that has helped their team, and sending Chris Archer to Triple-A is another attempt to do just that.

Mitch Talbot never panned out. His fastball showed good sink, but he struggled to command it. His changeup was nice, but it couldn’t work as his only secondary pitch as his cutter never was consistently effective and his curveball seemed to always be slurvy. The results were a disaster. In three appearances for the Rays in 2008, Talbot was about as bad as you can be, allowing 12 runs in 9.2 innings, striking out just 5 while walking 11 and allowed 3 home runs. Talbot pitched decently at Triple-A in 2008 and 2009, but his stuff just never came along and the Rays knew he would never cut it as a starter in the majors, especially considering how good their starting depth was. The Rays wound up trading him to Cleveland for Kelly Shoppach. You could say that Talbot filled his purpose for the Rays, netting them a solid role player for two seasons, but it was certainly a disappointment after just how promising Talbot had been.

The Indians gave Talbot 40 starts between 2010 and 2011 and he was terrible, going 12-19 with a 5.04 ERA, a 5.0 K/9, a 3.9 BB/9, and a 0.9 HR/9 in 223 innings pitched. He was non-tendered following the season and wound up signing with the Samsung Lions in Korea, where he spent the 2012 season. Now 29, he’s back in the US after signing a minor league contract with the Miami Marlins. His career isn’t over yet, but he’ll never be the pitcher the Rays thought he could be. There are so many promising prospects out there. But as Talbot shows, so many will fail to pan out.

7/12/06: Tampa Bay Devil Rays trade 3B Aubrey Huff and cash to the Houston Astros in exchange for SS Ben Zobrist and RHP Mitch Talbot.

This trade is known as a steal, but don’t be so sure that the Astros wouldn’t do it again.

Huff, 29 at the time of the deal, was a really good player, posting a .295/.353/.499 line with an average of 31 doubles, 27 homers, and 90 RBI per season from 2002 to 2005, including a 2003 season where he slammed 47 doubles and 34 homers while driving in 107, receiving a few MVP votes in the process. He moved all over the diamond for the D-Rays, seeing time at all four corner positions and starting for extended periods at both third base and right field. Then in 2006, his contract year, Huff continued to play well through the time of this trade, posting a .283/.348/.461 line with 15 doubles, 8 homers, and 28 RBI in 63 games. The Devil Rays had gotten some excellent years from Huff as he had set the franchise home run record, and with his free agency looming, Friedman knew that it was time to deal.

Zobrist continues to be a pivotal player for the Rays. (Credit: Kim Klement-US PRESSWIRE)

Zobrist, 25, was already a very unorthodox prospect. No, it wasn’t because he played all over the field- that came later. Zobrist was a 6th round draft pick by the Astros in 2004 out of Dallas Baptist University and was already 23 by the time he began his pro career. But after signing, he did nothing but hit. Zobrist mashed to a .339/.438/.463 line in his first pro season in 2005 at Short Season-A Tri-Cities, stealing 15 of 19 bases and walking 43 times versus 31 strikeouts. The next season, Zobrist worked his way from Low-A to High-A as he posted a .314/.437/.443 line with 18 of 24 steals, and an insane 84 walks versus 52 strikeouts. Then in 2006 prior to the trade, Zobrist posted a .327/.434/.473 line with 25 doubles, 6 triples, 3 homers, 30 RBI, 9 of 14 stolen bases, and 55 walks versus 46 strikeouts in 83 games and 381 plate appearances. Zobrist was pretty old for a legitimate prospect still at Double-A, and he hadn’t shown any signs of hitting for power. He also wasn’t a great defender at shortstop. But he was fast and his plate discipline was off the charts.

In the Devil Rays’ minds, Mitch Talbot was the prize of the Huff deal. Talbot, 22, had flashed a sinking fastball in the 90-93 MPH range to go along with an excellent changeup. He had never taken to a curveball, but he was showing positive signs with a cutter. And he was pitching well as Zobrist’s Double-A teammate in 2006, going 6-4 with a 3.39 ERA, a 9.6 K/9, a 2.9 BB/9, and a 0.4 HR/9 in 17 starts, a relief appearance, and 90.1 IP. Talbot was a good pitching prospect who had flashed dominance, and Friedman hoped he would live up to his upside to become at least a number three starter, possibly a number two.

The D-Rays essentially had to trade Huff. they were not going to sign him to an extension, and getting value in the form of prospects seem liked their best bet. They managed to get a player who fit an excellent utility profile in Zobrist, and the thing with him was that even at age 25 there were still parts of his game that were developing. Talbot wasn’t exactly the most high-upside arm, but he featured two clear plus pitches in his fastball and changeup, and Friedman hoped that with some fine-tuning they could get him a consistent third pitch and he could be a good major league starting pitcher. The D-Rays managed to trade their star third baseman Huff and get (they thought) a utilityman with some nice ability for the present and a nice pitcher for the future. It was a good trade as they got a couple of interesting prospects and had basically no risk of losing the trade because Huff was going to be a free agent following the season anyway.

The Houston Astros missed the playoffs by a game and a half in 2006. Huff did what he could to help lift them. Huff posted a .250/.341/.478 line with 10 doubles, 13 home runs after hitting just 8 with the D-Rays, and 38 RBI in 68 games playing third base and right field. Huff was excellent for the Astros, but they just missed. Huff signed with the Orioles as a free agent following the season, and after getting dealt to the Tigers at the deadline in 2009, has spent the last three years in San Francisco, helping to lead the Giants to a World Series championship in 2010. Injuries have led to his collapse the last two years.

Talbot, meanwhile, was dominant at Double-A the rest of the season, posting a 1.90 ERA, an 8.0 K/9, a 2.4 BB/9, and 0.3 HR/9 in 10 starts and 66.1 IP, but he fell apart to a 4.53 ERA at Triple-A in 2007 and his curveball and cutter never really came along. He made just 3 appearances with the Rays in 2008, posting an 11.17 ERA, and he later was traded to the Indians for Kelly Shoppach. Talbot made 40 starts for the Indians in 2010 and 2011 but went just 12-19 with a 5.04 ERA, striking out just 5.0 batters per 9 innings while walking 3.9. Talbot, still just 28, is currently pitching professionally in Korea.

Zobrist turned out to be the jewel of the trade. Zobrist struggled during his time in the major leagues in 2006 and 2007, but he played well in a utility role in 2008 before enjoying a tremendous breakout year in 2009, posting a .297/.405/.543 line with 28 doubles, 7 triples, 27 homers, 91 RBI, 17 stolen bases, and 91 walks versus 104 strikeouts in 152 games. Zobrist struggled in 2010, but he has been a crucial piece in the middle of the lineup for the Rays the past two seasons, playing second base and right field. He has become the prototypical Rays player, featuring speed, incredible plate discipline, outstanding defense at multiple positions, and also power.

This was not a bad trade by the Astros. Huff was the bat they badly needed and the prospects Friedman wanted weren’t exactly the moon and the stars. Zobrist was supposed to be just a utilityman, and Talbot’s inability to develop a curveball was concerning. They dealt away two clearly non-elite prospects for a player that they hoped would take them to the postseason. As it turned out, they just missed the playoffs. But the Huff acquisition gave them a chance. The Astros were right on Talbot, but unfortunately for them, Zobrist has turned into a star for the Rays.

This was not Andrew Friedman’s best trade. He got lucky on this one- no one expected Zobrist to break out like he did. But he did get actual prospects with potential, something his predecessors frankly failed to do quite often, and things ended up working out quite well for the Rays. This trade reminds us not to immediately criticize general managers for trades as soon as they happen, because who a prospect is at the time simply doesn’t tell the whole story. If you ask me back in 2006 who won this trade, it would be hard not to say the Astros- they got the bat they needed without dealing any of their top prospects. Now, it’s impossible to say that it did not go in Friedman’s favor, as Huff is long gone from Houston and Zobrist continues to be an incredible all-around player for the Rays. The best trades are not necessarily the ones the work out the best in the long-term. The Astros made a fine deal for themselves at the time, but at the end of the day, this trade has helped mold the Rays into the team they are today with Zobrist right in the thick of things.