Rays Colored Glasses » MLB Draft http://rayscoloredglasses.com A Tampa Bay Rays Fan Site - News, Blogs, Opinion and More Thu, 20 Jun 2013 04:01:36 +0000 en-US hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.4.1 Has the Time Come for the Rays to Select Another Catcher in the First Round of the MLB Draft? http://rayscoloredglasses.com/2013/06/06/has-the-time-come-for-the-rays-to-select-another-catcher-in-the-first-round-of-the-mlb-draft/ http://rayscoloredglasses.com/2013/06/06/has-the-time-come-for-the-rays-to-select-another-catcher-in-the-first-round-of-the-mlb-draft/#comments Thu, 06 Jun 2013 18:21:14 +0000 Robbie Knopf http://rayscoloredglasses.com/?p=11566 When the Tampa Bay Rays were at their absolute worst, it was building through the MLB Draft that made all the difference in their turnaround. In recent years, though, their drafting has been much-maligned, and the criticism starts with one critical mistake. Never having an All-Star catcher in their history to that point, the Rays [...]

Has the Time Come for the Rays to Select Another Catcher in the First Round of the MLB Draft? - Rays Colored Glasses - Rays Colored Glasses - A Tampa Bay Rays Fan Site - News, Blogs, Opinion and More

]]> When the Tampa Bay Rays were at their absolute worst, it was building through the MLB Draft that made all the difference in their turnaround. In recent years, though, their drafting has been much-maligned, and the criticism starts with one critical mistake. Never having an All-Star catcher in their history to that point, the Rays had the first overall pick in the 2008 MLB Draft and had Florida State catcher Buster Posey sitting right in front of them. But instead, the Rays selected Griffin (GA) High School shortstop Tim Beckham and the rest is history. The Rays are still looking for their franchise catcher.

In 2010, the Rays did finally take a catcher in the first round, drafting Justin O’Conner out of Cowan High School in Indiana. But O’Conner has not developed as expected could soon end up converting to the mound. Unfortunately for the Rays, O’Conner is a predicament common among the catchers in their organization. Lucas Bailey has done nothing, Mark Thomas stopped hitting, and Oscar Hernandez is too far from the major leagues to bank on him for anything. So the Rays will continue to toil away with Jose Molina and Jose Lobaton splitting time as their starting catchers, providing good defense, especially in terms of pitch framing, but decrepit offense on par with the worst of any catching corps in baseball. Is it time for the Rays to select another catcher in the first round?

There’s no quality college catcher available, no Posey that will quickly ascend to the major leagues, let alone to stardom. So the Rays will look for another high school catcher to select, an additional player to dream on. There has been talk off the Rays selecting Lexington (SC) High School catcher Nick Ciuffo, a player who’s different from the Rays’ previous high school picks given that he’s not as much of a high-upside player but does a lot of things well both offensively and defensively and ties his game together with excellent leadership intangibles. Or they could select a player like Jon Denney, another player with a big-time arm and big-time power who is extraordinarily talented but who could very well be boom or bust. But is the answer to overcompensate and draft a player you’re not as sold on to fill an organizational hole? Ciuffo is not the Rays’ type of pick because he doesn’t have as high as ceiling and Denney is a case of “been there, done that.” There are certainly reasons that the Rays have only selected one catcher in the first round of the MLB Draft despite their history of ineptitude at the position: high school catchers have a notoriously low rate of success and the Rays always try to select the best player on the board regardless of need.

What’s the difference between selecting a catcher in the first round or selecting him in the fourth round if there’s so much risk involved? Bailey was a 4th round pick in 2009, and the Rays even went to the 11th round to select Taylor Hawkins in 2012, signing him to an above-slot bonus.  The Rays seem very likely to select a high school catcher early on in the 2013 MLB Draft, but it may not come until their third pick at 60th overall or even a later round. At the end of the day, the Rays will try to get impact talents across the board, and at some point that pick will have to be a catcher. They’re not going to press to try to make up for the Posey mistake and their priority will not be to fill their catching hole. Even if another year by without the Rays selecting a catching prospect early on, it will not be steadfastly denying a mistake or ignoring reality but the Rays doing the best they can to fill their system with quality players. The Rays need a catcher and it’s as good of a time as any to select one. They hope that this is the year their catcher of the future comes around. But don’t root for them to select an inferior player that they wouldn’t have selected otherwise simply because he plays the catcher position because they won’t do that.

]]> http://rayscoloredglasses.com/2013/06/06/has-the-time-come-for-the-rays-to-select-another-catcher-in-the-first-round-of-the-mlb-draft/feed/ 0 Mikie Mahtook’s Struggles and Why the Rays Go for Upside in the MLB Draft http://rayscoloredglasses.com/2013/06/04/mikie-mahtooks-struggles-and-why-the-rays-go-for-upside-in-the-mlb-draft/ http://rayscoloredglasses.com/2013/06/04/mikie-mahtooks-struggles-and-why-the-rays-go-for-upside-in-the-mlb-draft/#comments Tue, 04 Jun 2013 21:47:40 +0000 Robbie Knopf http://rayscoloredglasses.com/?p=11505 Mikie Mahtook was not a typical Rays draft pick. Selected among the Rays’ 10 picks before the second round in the 2011 MLB Draft, Mahtook was drafted among high-upside players like Taylor Guerrieri and Tyler Goeddel and other players with considerable potential like Brandon Martin and Jeff Ames but was an entirely different story. Mahtook [...]

Mikie Mahtook’s Struggles and Why the Rays Go for Upside in the MLB Draft - Rays Colored Glasses - Rays Colored Glasses - A Tampa Bay Rays Fan Site - News, Blogs, Opinion and More

]]> Mikie Mahtook was not a typical Rays draft pick. Selected among the Rays’ 10 picks before the second round in the 2011 MLB Draft, Mahtook was drafted among high-upside players like Taylor Guerrieri and Tyler Goeddel and other players with considerable potential like Brandon Martin and Jeff Ames but was an entirely different story. Mahtook was a much safer pick as a good all-around player without any major flaw in his game. He didn’t have much room to grow, but he was a player who could move quickly to the major leagues and quickly become an impact player. Selecting such a player was attractive to the Rays for several reasons. The first was that with so many picks, they had to sign a few who would take less money, and Mahtook fit the fill. Mahtook was known for his exemplary passion on the baseball diamond and was exactly the type of vocal leader the Rays would love to have on their team. Most importantly, though, B.J. Upton was set to be a free agent after the 2012 season and Mahtook was a player with a chance to become a solid starting outfielder to replace Upton by 2014, a possibility we talked about in April of 2012. Selecting Mahtook went against the Rays’ usual draft strategy, but it was a case where selecting a safer, more polished player made a lot of sense. However, even the best laid plans can go quite awry and that’s exactly what has happened with Mahtook.

Mahtook overcame a rough start to his pro career in 2012 to crack Double-A in his first season. But he didn’t play particularly well once he got there, and that remains the case this season. Mahtook has just a .236/.316/.414 line with 13 doubles, 7 triples, 4 homers, 39 RBI, 10 of 16 stolen bases, and a 44-20 strikeout to walk ratio in 57 games and 250 plate appearances. Mahtook has still shown skills across the board–he’s hitting for some power, showing good speed, and playing solid defense in right field and serviceable defense in center. But his plate discipline hasn’t been great and his quality of contact and has been very inconsistent, leading to his low batting average. And at this point, scouts are concerned.

Scouts looked at Mahtook last year and struggled to find the one carrying tool that would take him to the big leagues. He has average power and a potentially average bat, and he could be an average runner. Optimists can look at that and call him a cheap five-tool player without any clear weaknesses. Pessimists can point out that he could end up just as easily as a Triple-A lifer who doesn’t do enough to really help a big league club.

At the end of the day, Mikie Mahtook is unlikely to end up as a Triple-A lifer. He has enough ability that a career as a major league fourth outfielder is a probable outcome. Plenty of first round picks end up being far worse than that. But looking at the case of Mahtook makes it easy to see why the Rays have been drafting high-upside high school players in the first round for years now despite their inherent risk. They may be less likely to make the major leagues, but they have the potential to be very good players and could still end up as backups if things don’t go according to plan. With Mahtook, the Rays’ set the bar lower and received less in the process. Mahtook could very well improve his patience at the plate and still end up as a starting outfielder, maybe even by mid-2014. But the Rays’ aren’t afraid that they won’t have a backup outfielder next season–they’re scared that they won’t be able to find impact hitters if say Kelly Johnson and James Loney sign multi-year details elsewhere and the low-cost player they sign turns out to be a flop.

The Rays did select a college player in the first round once again last year, Richie Shaffer, and he’s playing pretty badly right now, managing just a .250/.296/.367 line at High-A. Why aren’t we complaining about him? The Rays drafted him because he was a player they had rated highly who had slipped considerably in the draft, and they believed he has the ability to be a star player at third base, right field, or first base even if he had things to work on. Shaffer was a better value than Mahtook and had more upside as well. Mahtook was supposed to be better than this, and there’s a chance that he still will be. But the way the Rays run their organization, they need prospects with potential rising through the minors, and it’s starting to look like Mahtook doesn’t qualify. The Rays very well may select a college player among their two first rounds picks in this year’s MLB Draft on Thursday. However, no matter who they select, it has to be a player with upside and not a safe, conservative selection. 2011 was a strange year because the Rays had so many picks and quite a few players to sign. Hopefully this year they can get right back to the formula that has made them one of the best teams in baseball season after season.

]]> http://rayscoloredglasses.com/2013/06/04/mikie-mahtooks-struggles-and-why-the-rays-go-for-upside-in-the-mlb-draft/feed/ 0 Taking a Look At the Top Catching Prospects in the 2013 MLB Draft: Reese McGuire http://rayscoloredglasses.com/2013/04/19/taking-a-look-at-the-top-catching-prospects-in-the-2013-mlb-draft-reese-mcguire/ http://rayscoloredglasses.com/2013/04/19/taking-a-look-at-the-top-catching-prospects-in-the-2013-mlb-draft-reese-mcguire/#comments Fri, 19 Apr 2013 15:46:18 +0000 Robbie Knopf http://rayscoloredglasses.com/?p=9549 Here we go again. Another year goes by and the Rays still lack a clear catcher of the future. How will the Rays address that? Maybe they’ll make a trade- although it’s awfully hard to acquire a talented catching prospect on the market these days. Maybe the Rays will bide time with Jose Molina and [...]

Taking a Look At the Top Catching Prospects in the 2013 MLB Draft: Reese McGuire - Rays Colored Glasses - Rays Colored Glasses - A Tampa Bay Rays Fan Site - News, Blogs, Opinion and More

]]> Here we go again. Another year goes by and the Rays still lack a clear catcher of the future. How will the Rays address that? Maybe they’ll make a trade- although it’s awfully hard to acquire a talented catching prospect on the market these days. Maybe the Rays will bide time with Jose Molina and Co. as their major league catchers until a player is already in their system, someone like Mark Thomas, Luke Bailey, Justin O’Conner, or Oscar Hernandez, is ready to take over the reigns. However, each of those players carries significant risk and you can never be sure what will happen to them. One thing we can be sure of, though, is that in this coming year’s draft the Rays will strongly consider selecting a promising catcher to add to the players already in their system as they attempt to find that franchise catcher that they has eluded them the entire history of their franchise. Who could that player be? Let’s find out.

Today we’ll begin our look into the catchers in 2013 MLB Draft. Although it’s still a couple of months before the draft and a lot can happen between now and then, we’ll get a feel for the quality of the class of catchers and begin to understand the players that the Rays and every team in baseball will be choosing from when the day of the draft finally arrives. We’ll start with Reese McGuire.

Reese McGuire (Kent High School, WA)

Info: 6’1″, 190, turned 18 in March, committed to the University of San Diego

Scouting Report:

McGuire’s defense is a thing to behold and his offensive game is not all that far behind. McGuire glides behind the plate with his athletic frame, featuring a lightning-quick release and a strong arm on stolen base attempts and moving easily to block balls in the dirt like few high school catching prospects before him. Receiving is the biggest defensive concern for most catching prospects, but McGuire makes it look easy thanks to his outstanding reflexes, great footwork, and simply how comfortable he is in the crouch. McGuire gets into trouble when he overcomplicates things- he has tried a little too hard to do things like frame pitches at such a young age, and sometimes he focuses so much on releasing the ball quickly on stolen base attempts that he doesn’t get very much on the throws. That’s simply nitpicking, though, as McGuire is an incredible defensive catcher, especially coming out of high school, and with more refinement he has the potential to be a Gold Glover someday.

McGuire stands out nearly as much for his radiant smile and positive attitude as he does for his incredible talent. (Credit: Perfect Game)

At the plate, McGuire features an open, stance from the left side and lives up to the billing with great bat speed and good, not great raw power, including some to the opposite field. He uses his quick wrists to get his bat head out in front and take a direct path to the ball, and when his timing is right, he can square up everything. McGuire swings aggressively but has solid pitch recognition and a good knowledge of the strike zone. He gets into trouble when he mistimes his step and when he loses his bat speed trying to sell out for power. He’s also an average overall runner. He projects as a very good all-around hitter who will hit for a good average and get on base, but maybe a player who will top out at 15-20 home runs. McGuire ties his game together with great intangibles, showing outstanding leadership and a determination to maximize his talents and do everything he can to help his team win.

Evaluation: Reese McGuire’s superlative defensive talents and promise at the plate give him a chance to be a true franchise catcher and teams will give him a look among the top 10 to 15 picks of the 2013 draft- although the Rays would love to nab him at 21st overall. His offensive ceiling may not be quite what you would want to get that early in the draft, but players with his defensive talents and all-around game don’t come around too often and he will be extremely hard to pass up.

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