Will Bailey ever turn his abilities into results? (Credit: Flickr user BeGreen90)

Catcher

Luke Bailey, who will turn 22 in March, was a 4th round draft pick by the Rays in 2010 (17 picks after Wil Myers), and was the fifth-youngest player on the Stone Crabs in 2012. Bailey is the Rays’ only real catching prospect above Low-A, and unfortunately his risk is as high as anyone in the system. While Bailey’s abilities are interesting, his continued rawness makes his future extremely far from a sure thing. In 2012, Bailey managed just a .231/.277/.393 line with 15 doubles, 7 homers, 28 RBI, and 67 strikeouts versus just 8 walks in 67 games and 256 plate appearances. Defensively, he threw out 30% of attempted basestealers, but he allowed 11 passed balls and made 18 errors. Bailey stands out most for good bat speed and raw power and also plus arm strength. But at the plate, he’s severely handicapped by a lack of patience and plate discipline as he got befuddled by breaking balls all season and missed too often when pitchers made mistakes with fastballs. When Bailey connected, he hit the ball pretty hard, but he just could not do that at anywhere near a consistent basis. Defensively, Bailey’s arm strength may be good, but he’s also inaccurate as he gets caught up trying to do too much behind the plate. Bailey’s athletic at 6’0″, 198 but is an inconsistent receiver, and his offensive struggles only made things worse. But all that being said, Bailey’s tools are real and all he may need to rectify his issues is to stay on the field. Bailey played in just 67 games in 2012 after playing 74 in 2011 as injuries sidelined him from April to mid-June. Bailey actually got better as he got more playing time, managing a .240/.280/.453 line with 7 doubles, 3 homers, and 9 RBI in 82 plate appearances between August and September to close out the season. Bailey has done nothing as a pro and the risk with him is only getting higher, but if he can stay on the field, maybe everything could come together. The Rays will stay patient with Bailey knowing how talented he is, and he will likely begin 2013 back at Charlotte with the Rays hoping he’ll make a breakthrough and arrive at Double-A before long.

First Base

Philip Wunderlich was released after a year where he posted a .230/.278/.359 line with 21 doubles, 9 homers, 47 RBI, and 75 strikeouts against 21 walks in 436 plate appearances. I wrote final thoughts on him as a member of the Rays system here.

Second Base

Hector Guevara, the youngest player on the Stone Crabs as he just turned 21 years old, caught the eyes of evaluators when he slammed 8 homers in the Venezuelan Summer League back in 2007 but has hit just 8 combined home runs in 905 plate appearances since then. In 2012 for Charlotte, Guevara managed just a .234/.281/.297 line with 12 doubles, 3 homers, 35 RBI, 6 of 12 stolen bases, and 44 strikeouts against 24 walks in 100 games and 406 appearances. Guevara, who is 5’11″, 170, is a good defensive second baseman with nice range and a strong arm, and he even saw time at shortstop after Derek Dietrich was promoted to Double-A Montgomery in the latter part of the season. But offensively, he doesn’t do anything right now but make contact. His bat speed is solid and he’s able to put the ball in play, but his indiscriminate approach causes him to make too much contact and make a lot of weak contact, especially in the air. The thing that stands out about Guevara’s 2007 performance was that his strikeout to walk ratio was 21-16. Since then, his strikeout to walk ratios have been 31-15, 37-14, and 44-24. He didn’t strike out at all in 2012, striking out in just 10.7% of his plate appearances, but his plate discipline is simply non-existent and it doesn’t matter if he makes contacts if he can’t hit the ball with authority. Guevara is likely in line for a return to Charlotte next season, and the Rays will try to completely readjust his approach in an attempt to see if his power showing from back in 2007 is indicative of anything. Guevara still has youth on his side, but if he can’t fix his approach at the plate, it won’t make a difference.

Robby Price, who will turn 25 in April, was old for High-A in 2012 but had an interesting year for the Stone Crabs while playing second base, third base, and left field. Price posted a .268/.374/.342 line with 14 doubles, 3 triples, 3 homers, 30 RBI, just 5 of 14 stolen bases, and 36 strikeouts against 45 walks in 112 games and 473 plate appearances. Price is a one-tool player and that tool isn’t one of the typical five. His plate discipline is off the charts, and you can add in that he has a talent for getting hit by pitches. In all three of his minor league seasons, he has walked more than he has struck out and gotten hit by at least 15 pitches as well. Price is able to use his plate discipline to make some solid contact but still has no power at all. Defensively, he has a good arm and decent speed, but poor hands prevent him from playing shortstop and that really hurts his utility profile. Price’s age and lack of power makes him a longshot, but if his plate discipline persists at higher levels he could make the big leagues.

Shortstop

Derek Dietrich had a nice year for the Stone Crabs, managing a .281/.343/.468 line with 21 doubles, 9 triples, 10 homers, 58 RBI, and 78 strikeouts against 25 walks in 98 games and 417 plate appearances before getting promoted to Double-A Montgomery. Montgomery has since been traded to the Miami Marlins for Yunel Escobar. I talked about Dietrich one last time in an analysis of that trade here.

Robi Estrada, who turned 24 in October, finally earned a promotion to Charlotte in 2012 after three three straight seasons at Low-A Bowling Green. Estrada was a year too old for the level but did have an OK year, managing a .253/.310/.357 line with 15 doubles, 3 homers, 25 RBI, 6 of 7 stolen bases, and 43 strikeouts against 22 walks in 75 games and 279 plate appearances. Estrada, 5’10″ and 170 pounds, has always been a tap hitter but found a way to find a little pop in 2011 and carried it over into 2012. Estrada actually shows good bat speed from a compact swing, and his pitch recognition is even decent, but he’s way too aggressive within the zone and may actually have a little more power in him if he can fix that. Already 24, though, it may be too late. Estrada’s shows good speed, although he could use work on his basestealing, and his speed gives him solid range defensively, and pairing that with an average arm gives Estrada a chance to profile all over the field. In 2012, he saw time at both middle infield spots along with a couple games in the corner outfield positions as well. Estrada has a chance to be a big league utility player someday, but he has continued improvements to be made offensively and on the basepaths, and given his age that seems unlikely to happen.

Third Base

Riccio Torrez, who turned 23 in October, was the Rays’ 4th round pick in 2011 but did not have the type of full-season pro debut he was hoping for. Torrez managed just a .219/.287/.335 line with 18 doubles, 3 triples, 9 homers, 50 RBI, 7 of 9 stolen bases, and 86 strikeouts against just 27 walks in 123 games and 492 plate appearances. Torrez didn’t swing-and-miss so much, striking out in just 17.5% of his plate appearances compared to the 19.1% league average, but like several of the players above, his fatal flaw was a lack of plate discipline that prevented him from doing anything at the plate. Torrez, a right-handed hitter, was a bit better against lefties than righties, managing a .699 OPS compared to .567, but his lack of patience really holds him back against pitchers of both sides. The good news is that Torrez has already started to make an adjustment, managing a 7.4% walk rate in 288 plate appearances from June to the end of the year after just a 3.0% mark in 198 PA’s in April and May. At his best, Torrez shows solid bat speed with decent pop, and he’s also an average runner with good instincts on the basepaths. Defensively, Torrez shined even amid his offensive struggles, showing a strong arm and good reflexes, and while he played exclusively third base in 2012, he should be able to handle second base and the corner outfield spots while also being able to fake shortstop in a pinch. There is clearly a lot of work for Torrez to go, but it’s good to know that he adjusted as the season went on and he does a lot of things well. Torrez fits a great utility profile as long as he can prove that his plate discipline breakthrough is real, and the Rays hope he can get his numbers in line with where they should be likely back at Charlotte to begin next season with a quick promotion to Double-A a possibility if he plays well.

We’ll stop here for right now. The Stone Crabs’ infielders don’t exactly knock your socks off- the best prospect, Dietrich, was traded- but the Rays could end up with a big leaguer or two out of this group within the next couple of years, and it will be very interesting to see what happens with Luke Bailey. We’ll continue next time with the Stone Crabs’ outfielders.

For more of our scouting reports on the Rays’ minor league affiliates check out our Minor League Affiliates Analysis page here at RCG.

Triple-A International League: Gwinnett Bulls 10, Durham Bulls 5

An inning of nightmares sent Josh Lueke and the Bulls to a loss they would rather that not talk about. The loss was especially meaningful for the Bulls not just for what happened in the game, but the implications of the loss.

With the Bulls loss tonight and Charlotte’s win, Durham has been eliminated from the IL South race for the first time since 2006.

— Durham Bulls (@DurhamBulls) August 19, 2012

The Bulls’ incredible run of five straight division titles has come to an end. In this game, Jim Paduch and Josh Lueke utterly imploded to allow an 8-run 5th inning to erase a 4-1 lead. Lueke had one of the worst outings of his life, allowing 6 runs on 7 hits in just two-thirds of an inning. Lueke has been pitching extremely well up until this bump in the road and hopefully this is just a one-time deal and we’ll see him pitching well in the big leagues in September. Lefty Adam Liberatore did strike out 5 while walking none in 2.1 innings of relief, but by then it was too late. Nevin Ashley did have an outstanding game for Durham, going 2 for 2 with a double, a homer, 2 walks, 2 RBI, and 2 runs scored, Brooks Conrad also homered, and Henry Wrigley went 2 for 5 with an RBI and a run scored.

Double-A Southern League: Huntsville Stars (MIL) 6, Montgomery Biscuits 5 (10 innings)

If you want to experience just a little bit of what it’s like to be an Angels fan right now, you can think about this Biscuits game. The Biscuits had a 5-0 lead after 3 innings before letting it slip away. The Biscuits scored 5 runs in the second and third innings, with 3 of the runs being driven in by ninth-place hitter Mark Thomas, and starter Jake Thompson gave the Biscuits a strong performance, going 6 innings allowing 2 runs on 4 hits, striking out 2 while walking 1 and posting a 10-4 groundout to flyout ratio. But the Stars pulled within 5-3 on a Kentrail Davis home run off of C.J. Riefenhauser and tied the game in the bottom of the 8th as Kirby Yates walked the bases loaded before allowing a Brock Kjeldgaard 2-run single. And in the 10th, Davis came through again with a walk-off single against Neil Schenk as the Biscuits had completely fallen apart to lose 6-5. The Biscuits scored 5 runs on just 6 hits, but they talled 11 walks and failed to capitalize, leaving 11 runners on base in the game. Thomas went 3 for 5 with a double, 3 RBI, and a run scored in the loss.

Great to see Torrez come back the way he did. (Credit: Flickr user BeGreen90)

High-A Florida State League: Charlotte Stone Crabs 9, St. Lucie Mets 8

No disappointment here as the Stone Crabs came up with an incredible comeback of their own. Eliazer Suero tossed 3 shutout innings but came apart in the 5th, allowing 5 runs, just 2 earned after a Riccio Torrez error. On the day he was not that bad, going 3.2 innings allowing just the 2 earned runs on 5 hits, striking out 5 while walking 2 and posting a 4-2 groundout to flyout ratio, but the Stone Crabs were down 5-1. However, they pulled within 5-4 in the 5th on a Luke Bailey RBI double an RBI single by Robby Price, and an RBI groundout by Kevin Kiermaier. In the 6th, Alonzo Harris dampened the Stone Crabs’ spirits with a 2-run home run off of Theron Geith to extend the St. Lucie lead to 7-4. The game would remain that way until the 8th. And in the 8th, Bailey came up huge, drilling a 3-run home run to tie the game at 7. But adversity still remained for Charlotte as Daniel Muno singled home a run off of Lenny Linsky to give St. Lucie an 8-7 lead going to the bottom of the 9th. However, the Stone Crabs were not going to be denied. With 2 outs and no one on, Philip Wunderlich was hit by a pitch. Then Steven Tinoco singled. Riccio Torrez, who committed the pivotal error earlier in the game, got redemption with a game-tying RBI double. And an error gave the Stone Crabs a walk-off win by a score of 9-8. Bailey had an unbelievable game, going 3 for 4 with 2 doubles, 1 homer, 4 RBI, and 2 runs scored. Bailey has notched 6 hits in his last 3 games, all for extra bases. This is the player that the Rays have been waiting for since the moment they drafted him in 2009 and maybe this could be Bailey’s coming-out party. Price went 3 for 4, Tinoco went 3 for 5, and Cody Rogers and Riccio Torrez both went 2 for 5, with Torrez lacing 2 doubles including the game-tying hit in the 9th.

Low-A Midwest League: South Bend Silver Hawks (ARI) 11, Bowling Green Hot Rods 10

This game may very well have been the craziest in the history of the Hot Rods. Unfortunately, they could not come away with a win. This game got off to an incredible start for Bowling Green as they scored twice on bases-loaded walks in the 1st before Drew Vettleson slammed a 2-run homer in the 2nd to give them a 4-0 lead. Roberto Gomez was great in his shortened 3 inning start as the Rays have been holding back his innings, allowing no runs on 3 hits, striking out 4 while walking none. Felipe Rivero struck out 2 in a perfect 4th and then used a double play to face the minimum in the 5th. But looking in the boxscore, there’s a line that nobody wants to see. “Rivero, Fe pitched to 7 batters in the 6th.” It was an inning that you never hope to see your entire career. Better it happen at Low-A than higher up. Rivero allowed 7 runs, 6 earned, on 6 hits as he failed to record an out in the 6th inning and Charlie Cononie allowed 3 more before he could escape the inning as the Hot Rods allowed 10 runs in the inning to fall behind 10-4. That type of inning is enough to demoralize any team. We saw a 7-run 5th inning take the life out of the Angels in the Rays’ game on Saturday night. But the Hot Rods somehow refused to be fazed and came right back. In the 6th, the Hot Rods tallied 2 runs on a Tyler Goeddel RBI double to go along with a Drew Vettleson RBI single. And in the 7th, the Hot Rods put together a rally to tie the game, with Juniel Querecuto drilling a 2-run double, Ryan Brett doubling home a run, and Vettleson singled up the middle to tie it at 10 as the Hot Rods had put together an incredible comeback. Cononie and Frank Santana both tossed scoreless half-innings in the 8th. But in the 9th, the Hot Rods picked the wrong time to fall apart defensively as throwing errors by the third baseman Goeddel and the first baseman Jeff Malm scored the go-ahead run as South Bend won 11-10. Vettleson had a big game, going 4 for 5 with a homer, 4 RBI, and 2 runs scored. Goeddel went 3 for 5 with a double, an RBI, and a run scored, Jake Hager went 3 for 5, Taylor Motter went 2 for 4 with a walk, his 20th stolen base, an RBI, and a run scored, Malm went 2 for 3 with a double, 2 walks, and a run scored, and Ryan Brett doubled home a run and also stole a base, his 48th of the season.

Short Season-A New York-Penn League: Hudson Valley Renegades 6, Lowell Spinners (BOS) 5

No comeback here, but it got awfully scary for the Renegades. Taylor Guerrieri started and pitched well, allowing 1 run on 4 hits in 3 innings, striking out 1 while walking none and posting a 6-0 groundout to flyout ratio. The ‘Gades took a 3-0 lead in the 2nd inning on a Joel Caminero RBI double followed by a Jake DePew RBI single, and after the Spinners tallied a run in the bottom of the inning, Ryan Dunn doubled home a run in the 3rd to make it 4-1 Hudson Valley. Jeff Ames then came in for the Renegades and tossed 3 sharp innings, allowing no runs on just 1 hit, striking out 4 while walking none. The Renegades extended their lead to 6-1 with Ames in the game on a Joey Rickard sac fly to score DePew in the 4th before DePew slammed a solo home run in the 6th. Marcus Jensen and Ryan Garton then tossed a scoreless inning each and the Renegades were on their way to a crisp win. But then Dylan Floro had an inning he would like to forget. With 1 out, Floro allowed triple, single, double, with the single and double each plating a run, and then a Luke Maile error made it a 6-4 game with just 1 out. Floro forced a groundout, but then a Roberto Reyes infield single that Richie Shaffer couldn’t handle made it 6-5. But Floro forced Matthew Gedman to ground out to end it as the Renegades won 6-5. DePew had a career day, going 4 for 4 with a double, a homer, 3 RBI, and 2 runs scored, Ryan Dunn went 2 for 2 with a double, a walk, an RBI, and a run scored, and Tommy Coyle stole his 15th base of the season for the Renegades.

Advanced Rookie Appalachian League: Johnson City Cardinals 9, Princeton Rays 8

Oh, Rookie ball. It spawns the types of games that you never see anywhere else, like this one. Blake Snell had a rare bad start, allowing 3 runs on 5 hits in 2 innings, striking out 2 while walking 1, and Daniel Bream allowed a Ricardo Lizcano 2-run shot in the 4th inning to give Johnson City a 5-0 lead. But then the tide completely turned. Reid Redman doubled home a run in the 5th to make it 5-1. Oscar Hernandez slammed a 2-run homer in the 6th to pull Princeton within 5-3. And then in the 7th, the P-Rays the completely reversed their fortunes. Brandon Martin led off the inning with a homer and it was 5-4. An Omar Narvaez RBI single tied the game. A 2-run double by John Alexander make it 7-5. And Ariel Soriano singled home a run to make it 8-5 as suddenly the P-Rays had scored 8 unanswered runs to turn what looked like a sure loss into a relatively comfortable lead. But anything can and does happen in Rookie ball. Nick Sawyer, who has been next to automatic for Princeton this season, came in for his second inning of work as he tried to nail down the save. Sawyer struck out the first two batters of the inning. Saywer then walked Ricardo Lizcano, but he forced C.J. McElroy to hit a groundball to short. But Martin misplayed the ball, scoring a run and keeping the Cardinals alive. And Sawyer then fell apart, allowing a Ildemaro Vargas RBI double, a Jeremy Shaeffer RBI triple, and walk-off single by Trevor Martin as Johnson City won 9-8 with 4 unearned runs in the 9th. Hernandez and Martin both homered and Omar Narvaez, John Alexander, Reid Redman, Willie Argo, and Ariel Soriano all had multi-hit games, but the result was unfortunately a debilitating loss.

Durham Bulls 12, Columbus Clippers 2

The Bulls blew a close game open in the fifth en route to a 12-2 romp over the Columbus Clippers. Durham scored twice in the bottom of the first, as Chris Gimenez hit a two out, two run home run to put the Bulls ahead 2-0. The Clippers came back in the top of the fourth, tying the game on back to back home runs by Matt LaPorta and Russ Canzler. Brooks Conrad put the Bulls back on top in the bottom of the inning, leading off with a solo home run to make it a 3-2 game. The Bulls then scored six times in the bottom of the fifth, highlighted by a three run home run from Gimenez and a solo home run from Henry Wrigley. Durham tacked on three more runs in the bottom of the sixth, highlighted by Rich Thompson‘s two run triple. The Bulls shelled Columbus starter David Huff, tagging him for 9 runs on 8 hits and 3 walks over 4.2 innings. Matt Torra earned the win, allowing 2 runs on 7 hits with 1 strikeout in 7 innings. Gimenez was 2-5 with 2 home runs and 5 RBI.

Montgomery Biscuits 6, Jackson Generals 4

The Biscuits and the Generals battled all night, with Montgomery coming away with a hard fought 6-4 victory. Jackson took the lead in the top of the third, as Brad Miller homered to give the Generals a 2-0 lead. The Biscuits came back in the bottom of the fourth, as Mikie Mahtook had an RBI double, and Oscar Luna drove in a run on a single, with another run coming in on a throwing error. The Generals tied the game in the top of the sixth, as Jesus Sucre walked and scored on a Johermyn Chavez triple. Montgomery took the lead again in the bottom of the seventh, as Mark Thomas homered to put the Biscuits on top 4-3. Jackson tied the game again in the top of the eighth, as Denny Almonte scored on an error by Derek Dietrich. The Biscuits took the lead for good in the bottom of the inning, as Dietrich hit an RBI single, and came around to score on Oscar Luna’s double. Kirby Yates picked up the win, giving up 1 hit and 1 walk in 1.2 innings, striking out 5 batters. Mahtook went 3-4 with 2 runs scored, 2 doubles, and an RBI.

Charlotte Stone Crabs 3, Bradenton Marauders 0 (6 innings)

Enny Romero was perfect through five, and finished with a rain shortened one hit shutout of the Bradenton Marauders. The game was scoreless into the bottom of the fourth, when Steven Tinoco reached on an error. With two out, Riccio Torrez hit a two run home run, giving the Stone Crabs the lead. Charlotte tacked on another run in the bottom of the fifth, as Kevin Kiermaier tripled, and came around to score on a single by Philip Wunderlich. Romero lost his bid for perfection in the top of the sixth, giving up a double to Kirk Singer to lead off the inning. The game was halted in the middle of the sixth inning, before Charlotte was awarded the victory. Romero gave up only 1 hit and 1 walk, striking out 9 in his dominant 6 inning performance. Torrez was 2-2 with 1 double, 1 home run, and 2 RBI.

Bowling Green Hot Rods 10, South Bend Silver Hawks 2

The Hot Rods scored 8 times in the bottom of the second inning, and cruised to a 10-2 victory over the Silver Hawks. The eight run outburst was highlighted by a two run error by South Bend starter J.R. Bradley, and a two run triple by Drew Vettleson. Bowling Green sent 11 batters to the plate in the inning, tallying four singles, two doubles, a triple, a hit batter, and a sacrifice fly. South Bend got two runs back in the top of the third, as Tom Belza‘s triple drove in Raul Navarro and Chris Ellison. However, Juniel Querecuto hit a two out bases loaded single, driving in two to put the lead back to eight, providing the final runs in the 10-2 victory. Bradley picked up the loss, getting rocked for 8 runs (7 earned) on 8 hits in 1.1 innings of work. Trevor Shull picked up the win, giving up 2 runs on 6 hits and 2 walks, while striking out 4 over 6 innings. Ryan Brett was 3-5 with a run scored.

Hudson Valley Renegades 5, Vermont Lake Monsters 4 (10 innings)

The Renegades and the Lake Monsters battled in a back and forth affair, with Hudson Valley eventually coming away with a 5-4 win in ten innings. The game was scoreless until the top of the sixth, when Bruce Maxwell drove in the first run of the game, giving Vermont a 1-0 lead. The Renegades came back in the bottom of the inning, as Michael Williams tied the game on a two out single, and Leonardo Reginatto‘s two run single gave Hudson Valley a 3-1 lead. Vermont came back in the top of the seventh, using a double, a single, and an error to put together a three run inning, giving the Lake Monsters a 4-3 lead. Hudson Valley tied the game in the bottom of the eighth, as Justin O’Conner doubles, moved to third on a passed ball, and scored on a wild pitch. The game went to the tenth, when Charles Epperson led off the bottom of the inning with a triple. After two walks loaded the bases, O’Conner singled, driving in Epperson with the winning run. Ryan Garton picked up the win, giving up 1 hit and striking out 2 in his inning of relief. O’Conner and Williams each had 2 hits in the victory.

Bluefield Blue Jays 3, Princeton Rays 0

Tucker Jensen no-hit the Rays into the sixth inning, combining with two other pitchers to defeat Princeton 3-0. All three runs scored in the top of the sixth, as Christian Lopes doubled in the game’s first run. Lopes came around to score on Seth Conner‘s home run, giving the Blue Jays a 3-0 lead. Jensen, meanwhile, was masterful, not allowing a hit until Brandon Martin singled with one out in the bottom of the sixth. The Rays had back to back singles in the bottom of the seventh, chasing Jensen with runners on first and second with no outs. However, Colby Broussard got out of the jam without any damage. Tucker Jensen picked up the win, allowing 3 hits and striking out 1 in his 6+ innings of work. Martin was 2-4 for the Rays in the loss.

GCL Rays 7, GCL Red Sox 6

The Rays came from behind 3-2, and held on to a 7-6 victory over the Red Sox. The Rays struck first, with Bralin Jackson hitting a two out RBI single to give the Rays a 1-0 lead. The Rays tacked on another run in the fifth as Migeul Beltran was hit by a pitch, moved to second on a single, and scored two wild pitches. The Red Sox took the lead in the bottom of the inning, on two RBI singles and a wild pitch with two out. The Rays tied the game in the top of the sixth, as Johnny Eierman tripled, and scored on a wild pitch. Eierman gave the Rays the lead in the top of the seventh with an RBI single, and hit another RBI single in the top of the ninth. With the Rays ahead 7-3, the Red Sox mounted a comeback. Miguel Rodriguez hit a two run double, and came around to score on Ishea Conklin’s sacrifice fly. However, the Red Sox were kept in check the rest of the way, as the Rays escaped with a 7-6 victory. Matthew Ramsey picked up the win in relief, giving up 2 hits and striking out 1 in 2 innings. Eierman was 3-5 with 2 runs scored, a triple, and 2 RBIs.