Triple-A International League: Durham Bulls 9, Toledo Mud Hens (DET) 8

A bullpen collapse made this game crazy at the end, but the Bulls’ offense had quite a night and Frank De Los Santos stepped up at the end to nail down the save as the Bulls got by Toledo 9-8. Jake Odorizzi started for Durham and had a rough game but managed to avoid disaster. He allowed 3 home runs in the first 2 innings, all solo shots, and then walked 3 batters in the 3rd, but he managed to toss shutout ball over his final 3 innings as he went 5 innings allowing 4 runs on 4 hits, striking out 5 while walking 4. As disaster starts, though, you can certainly do worse than that, and great composure by Odorizzi to battle when his stuff wasn’t fooling anyone. On the offensive side, the Bulls scored 4 in the first inning, and although Odorizzi gave those runs back, they were able to avoid the vintage Rays tendency of having one big inning and faltering the rest of the game and provide their pitchers with plenty of run support. They would need it all. Tim Beckham had a really nice game, going 1 for 3 with a a triple, 2 walks, a stolen base, and 2 RBI, Vince Belnome went 4 for 5 with 2 doubles, an RBI, and 3 runs scored. Cole Figueroa went 3 for 5 with a double and 3 RBI, and Wil Myers, Leslie Anderson, and Juan Apodaca also had multi-hit games. Lefties Jeff Beliveau and Adam Liberatore tossed shutout ball in the 6th and 7th as the game appeared to be out of reach at 9-4 after 7 innings, but Wil Inman allowed 4 runs in just two-thirds of an inning in the 8th to make it 9-8. But that was when De Los Santos, who had managed just a 7.27 ERA in his first 7 appearances of the season, came in and slammed the door, recording the final out of the inning before working around a hit in the 9th, as the Bulls won 9-8. In a slugfest like this, all the pitching you can get matters even more than usual, and the Bulls were able to limit the damage to a couple of bad innings while pitching strongly the rest of the way, and that made all the difference. Great offensive showing by Durham, and nice to see the pitching coming up big when it mattered most.

Double-A Southern League: Montgomery Biscuits 5, Tennessee Smokies (CHC) 4

Another great finish in this one as it was tied 3-3 after 8 innings before the Biscuits scored 2 in the top of the 9th and survived a run in the bottom of the inning to win. Victor Mateo started for Montgomery and was decent overall, going 4.2 innings allowing 3 runs on 6 hits, striking out 3 and walking 3 as well. He had tossed 4 shutout innings before coming apart in the 5th to put Montgomery down 3-2. But Mayo Acosta quickly tied it in the 6th on a solo home run, and 3.1 innings of shutout relief from Braulio Lara and Matt Nevarez got the Biscuits through 8. Then in the top of the 9th, Robi Estrada and Kevin Kiermaier singled to begin the inning and the Biscuits elected to bunt them to 2nd and 3rd. That immediately paid dividends as Mikie Mahtook hit a soft groundball that scored Shawn O’Malley, who had pinch-run for Estrada, and a throwing error brought in Kiermaier to make it 5-3. Juan Sandoval allowed a 1-out RBI single in the 9th that made it 5-4, but he buckled down from there to retire the next 2 hitters as the Biscuits won 5-4. Estrada and Kiermaier had nice games, with Estrada going 2 for 3 with a walk and Kiermaier going 2 for 5 with the key insurance run scored in the 9th, and Cameron Seitzer also went 1 for 3 with 2 walks and an RBI. The Biscuits’ rally wasn’t too flashy, but they took advantage of their opportunity and found their way to a satisfying victory.

Low-A Midwest League: Fort Wayne Tincaps (SDP) 3, Bowling Green Hot Rods 2

Blake Snell allowed 3 runs in the first inning and unfortunately the Hot Rods could not overcome that as they went 3-2. Snell has been dominant to begin the year but allowed 3 walks and 2 hits in the 1st before settling in. He went 4 innings allowing 3 runs, 2 earned, on 6 hits, striking out 3 and walking 3 as well. His groundout to flyout was also an impressive 5-0, but his control was off early on and it cost him. Reinaldo Lopez was incredible in relief of Snell, going 4 innings allowing just 2 hits and nothing else, striking out 1 and forcing 8 more outs on the ground. But it wasn’t enough as the Hot Rods managed just 2 runs on 4 hits in the game and blew the opportunities they did have, going just 1 for 12 with runners in scoring position. Tommy Coyle had a big game for Bowling Green, going 3 for 4 with a triple, 2 stolen bases, and a run scored, and Marty Gantt brought in both Hot Rods runs with another triple, but that was basically it. Tyler Goeddel did have an encouraging game as well, going 0 for 0 but with 3 walks and a stolen base of his own. In terms of stolen bases, Coyle ranks second in the Midwest League with 11, Andrew Toles, who walked and stole a base in this one, has 10, and Goeddel is tied for 5th with 7. Great to see the Hot Rods living up their nickname and their billing as members of the Rays organization by stealing so many bases. But it’s awfully hard to steal home, and they have to find a way to push some runs across with hits. Otherwise, they’ll be left contemplating what could have have been after a disheartening loss like this.

Will Bailey ever turn his abilities into results? (Credit: Flickr user BeGreen90)

Catcher

Luke Bailey, who will turn 22 in March, was a 4th round draft pick by the Rays in 2010 (17 picks after Wil Myers), and was the fifth-youngest player on the Stone Crabs in 2012. Bailey is the Rays’ only real catching prospect above Low-A, and unfortunately his risk is as high as anyone in the system. While Bailey’s abilities are interesting, his continued rawness makes his future extremely far from a sure thing. In 2012, Bailey managed just a .231/.277/.393 line with 15 doubles, 7 homers, 28 RBI, and 67 strikeouts versus just 8 walks in 67 games and 256 plate appearances. Defensively, he threw out 30% of attempted basestealers, but he allowed 11 passed balls and made 18 errors. Bailey stands out most for good bat speed and raw power and also plus arm strength. But at the plate, he’s severely handicapped by a lack of patience and plate discipline as he got befuddled by breaking balls all season and missed too often when pitchers made mistakes with fastballs. When Bailey connected, he hit the ball pretty hard, but he just could not do that at anywhere near a consistent basis. Defensively, Bailey’s arm strength may be good, but he’s also inaccurate as he gets caught up trying to do too much behind the plate. Bailey’s athletic at 6’0″, 198 but is an inconsistent receiver, and his offensive struggles only made things worse. But all that being said, Bailey’s tools are real and all he may need to rectify his issues is to stay on the field. Bailey played in just 67 games in 2012 after playing 74 in 2011 as injuries sidelined him from April to mid-June. Bailey actually got better as he got more playing time, managing a .240/.280/.453 line with 7 doubles, 3 homers, and 9 RBI in 82 plate appearances between August and September to close out the season. Bailey has done nothing as a pro and the risk with him is only getting higher, but if he can stay on the field, maybe everything could come together. The Rays will stay patient with Bailey knowing how talented he is, and he will likely begin 2013 back at Charlotte with the Rays hoping he’ll make a breakthrough and arrive at Double-A before long.

First Base

Philip Wunderlich was released after a year where he posted a .230/.278/.359 line with 21 doubles, 9 homers, 47 RBI, and 75 strikeouts against 21 walks in 436 plate appearances. I wrote final thoughts on him as a member of the Rays system here.

Second Base

Hector Guevara, the youngest player on the Stone Crabs as he just turned 21 years old, caught the eyes of evaluators when he slammed 8 homers in the Venezuelan Summer League back in 2007 but has hit just 8 combined home runs in 905 plate appearances since then. In 2012 for Charlotte, Guevara managed just a .234/.281/.297 line with 12 doubles, 3 homers, 35 RBI, 6 of 12 stolen bases, and 44 strikeouts against 24 walks in 100 games and 406 appearances. Guevara, who is 5’11″, 170, is a good defensive second baseman with nice range and a strong arm, and he even saw time at shortstop after Derek Dietrich was promoted to Double-A Montgomery in the latter part of the season. But offensively, he doesn’t do anything right now but make contact. His bat speed is solid and he’s able to put the ball in play, but his indiscriminate approach causes him to make too much contact and make a lot of weak contact, especially in the air. The thing that stands out about Guevara’s 2007 performance was that his strikeout to walk ratio was 21-16. Since then, his strikeout to walk ratios have been 31-15, 37-14, and 44-24. He didn’t strike out at all in 2012, striking out in just 10.7% of his plate appearances, but his plate discipline is simply non-existent and it doesn’t matter if he makes contacts if he can’t hit the ball with authority. Guevara is likely in line for a return to Charlotte next season, and the Rays will try to completely readjust his approach in an attempt to see if his power showing from back in 2007 is indicative of anything. Guevara still has youth on his side, but if he can’t fix his approach at the plate, it won’t make a difference.

Robby Price, who will turn 25 in April, was old for High-A in 2012 but had an interesting year for the Stone Crabs while playing second base, third base, and left field. Price posted a .268/.374/.342 line with 14 doubles, 3 triples, 3 homers, 30 RBI, just 5 of 14 stolen bases, and 36 strikeouts against 45 walks in 112 games and 473 plate appearances. Price is a one-tool player and that tool isn’t one of the typical five. His plate discipline is off the charts, and you can add in that he has a talent for getting hit by pitches. In all three of his minor league seasons, he has walked more than he has struck out and gotten hit by at least 15 pitches as well. Price is able to use his plate discipline to make some solid contact but still has no power at all. Defensively, he has a good arm and decent speed, but poor hands prevent him from playing shortstop and that really hurts his utility profile. Price’s age and lack of power makes him a longshot, but if his plate discipline persists at higher levels he could make the big leagues.

Shortstop

Derek Dietrich had a nice year for the Stone Crabs, managing a .281/.343/.468 line with 21 doubles, 9 triples, 10 homers, 58 RBI, and 78 strikeouts against 25 walks in 98 games and 417 plate appearances before getting promoted to Double-A Montgomery. Montgomery has since been traded to the Miami Marlins for Yunel Escobar. I talked about Dietrich one last time in an analysis of that trade here.

Robi Estrada, who turned 24 in October, finally earned a promotion to Charlotte in 2012 after three three straight seasons at Low-A Bowling Green. Estrada was a year too old for the level but did have an OK year, managing a .253/.310/.357 line with 15 doubles, 3 homers, 25 RBI, 6 of 7 stolen bases, and 43 strikeouts against 22 walks in 75 games and 279 plate appearances. Estrada, 5’10″ and 170 pounds, has always been a tap hitter but found a way to find a little pop in 2011 and carried it over into 2012. Estrada actually shows good bat speed from a compact swing, and his pitch recognition is even decent, but he’s way too aggressive within the zone and may actually have a little more power in him if he can fix that. Already 24, though, it may be too late. Estrada’s shows good speed, although he could use work on his basestealing, and his speed gives him solid range defensively, and pairing that with an average arm gives Estrada a chance to profile all over the field. In 2012, he saw time at both middle infield spots along with a couple games in the corner outfield positions as well. Estrada has a chance to be a big league utility player someday, but he has continued improvements to be made offensively and on the basepaths, and given his age that seems unlikely to happen.

Third Base

Riccio Torrez, who turned 23 in October, was the Rays’ 4th round pick in 2011 but did not have the type of full-season pro debut he was hoping for. Torrez managed just a .219/.287/.335 line with 18 doubles, 3 triples, 9 homers, 50 RBI, 7 of 9 stolen bases, and 86 strikeouts against just 27 walks in 123 games and 492 plate appearances. Torrez didn’t swing-and-miss so much, striking out in just 17.5% of his plate appearances compared to the 19.1% league average, but like several of the players above, his fatal flaw was a lack of plate discipline that prevented him from doing anything at the plate. Torrez, a right-handed hitter, was a bit better against lefties than righties, managing a .699 OPS compared to .567, but his lack of patience really holds him back against pitchers of both sides. The good news is that Torrez has already started to make an adjustment, managing a 7.4% walk rate in 288 plate appearances from June to the end of the year after just a 3.0% mark in 198 PA’s in April and May. At his best, Torrez shows solid bat speed with decent pop, and he’s also an average runner with good instincts on the basepaths. Defensively, Torrez shined even amid his offensive struggles, showing a strong arm and good reflexes, and while he played exclusively third base in 2012, he should be able to handle second base and the corner outfield spots while also being able to fake shortstop in a pinch. There is clearly a lot of work for Torrez to go, but it’s good to know that he adjusted as the season went on and he does a lot of things well. Torrez fits a great utility profile as long as he can prove that his plate discipline breakthrough is real, and the Rays hope he can get his numbers in line with where they should be likely back at Charlotte to begin next season with a quick promotion to Double-A a possibility if he plays well.

We’ll stop here for right now. The Stone Crabs’ infielders don’t exactly knock your socks off- the best prospect, Dietrich, was traded- but the Rays could end up with a big leaguer or two out of this group within the next couple of years, and it will be very interesting to see what happens with Luke Bailey. We’ll continue next time with the Stone Crabs’ outfielders.

For more of our scouting reports on the Rays’ minor league affiliates check out our Minor League Affiliates Analysis page here at RCG.

An extra inning loss and a walk off victory highlight today’s trip around the minors. Overall, the Rays farm system went 3-4 on the day.

Columbus Clippers 2, Durham Bulls 1 (10 innings)

After their rain shortened game last night, the Columbus Clippers and Durham Bulls played a low scoring extra inning affair, with the Clippers winning 2-1. Columbus jumped out to the lead in the top of the first inning, as Matt LaPorta‘s sacrifice fly drove in the first run of the game. The Bulls tied the game in the bottom of the fourth, as Cole Figueroa hit a two out single, and moved to second on a wild pitch. Henry Wrigley followed with a double, driving in Figueroa. Despite scoring chances for both sides, the game remained knotted at one until the top of the tenth inning. Aaron Cunningham led off the inning with a single, moved to second on a wild pitch, and advance to third on a fly ball. Jason Donald‘s RBI single plated Cunningham with the eventual winning run. Brandon Gomes took the loss in relief, allowing 1 earned run on 3 hits while striking out 3 in 2 innings of work. Rich Thompson was 3-5 in the loss.

Jacksonville Suns 4, Montgomery Biscuits 0 (8 innings)

The Suns capped off a sweep of their five game series with the Biscuits, shutting them out for the third time in their 4-0 victory. Jacksonville scored all their runs in the bottom of the second, highlighted by Chris Guiterrez’s two run, bases loaded double. Jose Alvarez dominated the Biscuits, allowing only 2 hits while striking out 5 in his 8 shutout innings. Nick Barnese bounced back after his rough second inning to pitch 6 innings, allowing 4 hits, 5 walks, and 3 hit batsmen while striking out 2. Donnie Webb was 0-1 with a run scored, an RBI, and 2 walks for Jacksonville.

Charlotte Stone Crabs 8, Bradenton Marauders 1

Two four run innings helped the Stone Crabs jump out to a lead, as they cruised by the Bradenton Marauders 8-1. Charlotte jumped on Bradenton starter Eliecer Navarro in the bottom of the third, scoring four runs, highlighted by Riccio Torrez‘s two run home run. The Stone Crabs scored another four runs in the bottom of the sixth, capped by a three run home run by Robi Estrada. The Marauders scored a run in the top of the ninth, however it was not enough as they lost 8-1. Eliazer Suero struggled with his control in the victory, giving up 1 hit while walking 6 in his 5.1 innings of work. Todd Glaesmann was 3-3 with 2 doubles, a run scored, an RBI, and a walk. Lucas Bailey contributed with 2 doubles.

Fort Wayne TinCaps 7, Bowling Green Hot Rods 3

Two errors by Ryan Brett helped the TinCaps jump out to an early 6-0 lead, as Fort Wayne held on for a 7-3 victory. The TinCaps struck in the bottom of the first, as Yeison Asencio hit a one out RBI single. Brett made his first error of the night in the bottom of the third, as his errant throw on an infield single allowed Travis Jankowski to advance to third. Jankowski scored on a Jace Peterson RBI single. Another Brett error factored into the scoring in the bottom of the fourth, as he misplayed a groundball. With two outs in the inning, an RBI single, a wild pitch advancing the runners, and a two run single led to a three run inning. The Hot Rods rallied in the top of the eighth, as Brett had an RBI double, and scored on Alejandro Segovia‘s two run home run. However, Matthew Stites shut the door in the top of the ninth, preserving the 7-3 win. Roberto Gomez took the loss, allowing 3 runs (2 earned) on 5 hits and 2 walks with 2 strikeouts over 3 innings. Segovia and Jake Hager each had two hits for the Hot Rods.

Hudson Valley Renegades 7, Vermont Lake Monsters 5

The Renegades fell behind 5-0 early, but rallied to notch a 7-5 victory over the Lake Monsters. The Lake Monsters scored a run in the top of the second, as John Wooten struck out, but reached first on a wild pitch. Wooten scored on back to back one out singles, giving Vermont an early 1-0 lead. Miguel Marte hit a two run double in the third, and Addison Russell and Bert Vertigan had run scoring singles in the fourth as the Lake Monsters jumped out to a 5-0 lead. The Renegades came back in the bottom of the fifth, using three consecutive bases loaded singles to cut the lead to 5-4. Hudson Valley tied the game in the bottom of the eighth. Deshun Dixon led off the inning with a triple, and scored the tying run on Michael William’s base hit. Luke Maile hit a two run triple with two outs, giving the Renegades their first lead of the game. Dylan Floro picked up the victory with 2 perfect innings, striking out 4 batters. Williams was 3-4 with 2 doubles and an RBI in the win.

Princeton Rays 4, Bluefield Blue Jays 3

After squandering an early 3-0 lead, the Princeton Rays scored a walk off 4-3 victory over the Bluefield Blue Jays. The Rays jumped out to a quick 1-0 lead as Brandon Martin led off the bottom of the first with a double, and scored on Reid Redman‘s RBI single. Princeton added to the lead in the fourth, as John Alexander hit a two run home run, giving the Rays a 3-0 lead. The Blue Jays came back in the top of the seventh, as Matthew Dean had an RBI single, and came around to score on a two run triple by Jorge Vega-Rosado. The score remained tied until the bottom of the ninth. With one out, Ariel Soriano walked and stole second. Following a groundout to short, Brandon Martin hit a game winning single to center, driving in Soriano and giving the Rays a 4-3 victory. Zack Butler picked up the victory in relief, allowing 2 hits and a walk in 2.1 innings. Martin was 2-5 with a double and an RBI.

GCL Twins 4, GCL Rays 2

The Rays jumped out to an early 2-0 lead, but fell as the Twins rallied back for a 4-2 victory. The Rays took an early 1-0 lead in the top of the second on Ryan McChesney‘s RBI fielder’s choice. They expanded the lead as Yoel Araujo scored on a double play, taking a 2-0 advantage. The Twins came back in the bottom of the seventh, loading the bases with one out. After a run scored on a wild pitch, John Murphy hit a two run single to give the Twins the lead 3-2. Murphy came around to score on a double by Bryan Santy. Kyle Pelchy took the loss in relief, allowing 3 runs on 3 hits and 2 walks in 1.1 innings of work. Jiminson Natera went 2-4 with a double and a run scored.