In the history of baseball, just eleven pitchers have managed a season with 10.4 or more strikeouts per 9 innings in 200 or more innings pitched. The three who did it three or more times are all no-doubt Hall of Famers: Randy Johnson (who did it nine times!), Nolan Ryan, and Pedro Martinez. Curt Schilling another player with an excellent chance of getting in, did it twice. After after that, you have six players who are almost a who’s-who of what could have been. All six of them had their 10.4 K/9 season when they were 26 or younger, and all of them watched their careers come apart. You have Dwight Gooden in 1984. You have the pairing of Mark Prior and Kerry Wood on the ill-fated 2003 Chicago Cubs. You have Johan Santana, whose career appeared to be on a Hall of Fame trajectory before a series of injury-riddled season have just about ruined his hopes. You have Sam McDowell, the first pitcher ever to have a season with a 10.4 K/9 or greater way back in 1965 at age 22, and he had several great years, going 103-80 with a 2.73 ERA from 1964 to 1970, but he won just 9 games after age 30 as he finished with just 141 wins for his career. And there’s Scott Kazmir. The good news for Kazmir is that his career isn’t quite over yet- he’s back in big league camp with the Cleveland Indians and pitching well. But even in the best-case scenario, Kazmir’s four-year run of dominance from 2005 to 2008 will never be something he can even come close to getting back to, and like so many others on this list, the question will always be just how could have been had he not gotten injured.

I only listed ten names out of the eleven- one more is active and whether he ends up on the list of greats or the list of could-have-beens is very much in question. That pitcher is Tim Lincecum, who joined the four Hall of Famers with two seasons of 200 innings and a K/9 of 10.4 or greater in his Cy Young seasons of 2008 and 2009. But while Lincecum has never gone on the disabled list his entire career, his fastball velocity has declined from 94.74 MPH in 2008 to just 91.06 MPH in 2012 according to Brooks Baseball, and that’s despite the fact the Lincecum is still 28 years old. That steep decline in fastball velocity combined with an even greater loss of control and command (4.4 BB/9, 1.1 HR/9) led to Lincecum being among the worst players in baseball in 2012 as he went just 10-15 with a 5.18 ERA in 33 starts and 186 innings pitched. However, Lincecum proceeded to be huge for the Giants on their run to the World Series championship, managing a 2.55 ERA and a 20-5 strikeout to walk ratio in 6 appearances and 17.2 innings pitched, and there’s renewed hope for the Giants that he’ll be able to start pitching more like he did in those two Cy Young seasons and in 2011 (2.74 ERA, 220-86 K-BB ratio in 217 IP). Simply the fact that Lincecum managed two 10.4 K/9 seasons of over 200 innings pitched tells you how high his long-term potential is considering that every other pitcher who did that will end up in the Hall of Fame over the next five years. But Lincecum can’t afford to take anything for granted anymore as his career has begun to fall apart even accounting for his big performance in the postseason, and if he can’t turn himself around, he will end up like Kazmir and the others before he knows it.

When a pitcher puts up a season where he strikes out 10.4 or more batters per 9 innings, it indicates a level of dominance that few pitchers can reach, but also a substantial amount of risk as a result. When pitchers throw that hard, they’re always at risk of losing control, and even more importantly, they’re putting so much stress on their arms that an injury could be a second away at any time. And even if a pitcher can stay healthy and locate his pitches, eventually his velocity goes down and he has the adapt to survive. The greats are able to do all of that- but for most pitchers, they can only get a transient glimpse of the view from the top of the mountain before they quickly and perilously plunder down. Rays fans had the pleasure and the misfortune of seeing that happen with Scott Kazmir. Watching him and James Shields pitch great in 2007 gave Rays fans hope that the Rays could put together a strong starting rotation after years of pitching futility, but then seeing Kazmir come apart like he did makes us wonder whether it’s worth it to get our hopes up knowing that 95% of even the pitchers who reach the pinnacle are bound to implode. All we can do is appreciate greatness when we get the chance knowing that in all probability it’s going to disappear before we know it.

Venezuelan League Championship Series: Navegantes del Magallanes 11, Cardenales de Lara 9

Once again for Lara, the game got off to a very promising start as Luis Jimenez slammed a solo homer off Magallanes starter Austin Bibens-Dirkx in the top of the first inning. But everything quickly collapsed there. The three innings consisted of the Navegantes absolutely bombarding Lara pitching. Lara starter Raul Rivero lasted just 1.1 innings allowing 4 runs on a solo homer by Endy Chavez and a 3-run shot by Carlos Maldonado. Juan Rivera then homered off Yohan Pino, a 2-run shot as Magallanes opened up a 7-2 lead. But you have to give the Cardenales credit for refusing to give up. They battled back for 3 runs in the 4th on RBI singles by Paulo Orlando (a bunt single in an RBI situation!) and Cesar Izturis, and an RBI double by Yangervis Solarte. But the onslaught continued in the bottom of the frame as Pablo Sandoval slammed a 2-run homer and Hector Gimenez followed two batters later with a solo shot to make it 10-5, and an RBI double by Maldonado in the 5th made it 11-5.

While the Lara pitching was a disaster, the Magallanes pitching was not that much better. Austin Bibens-Dirkx did not have the type of Game 7 start that he would have liked, allowing 5 runs on 7 hits in 3 innings. Deolis Guerra then followed 2 shutout innings. But then suddenly everything changed. The Lara bullpen turned itself around, tossing shutout ball in the last 3 innings, including 1.1 scoreless frames by ex-big leaguer and Rays minor leaguer Romulo Sanchez. And the Navegantes’ bullpen began to wilt. A 2-run homer by Luis Jimenez, his second of the game, off of Fabio Castro made it an 11-7 game. Yoel Hernandez managed to work around a hit to toss scoreless ball the rest of the 6th, and then ex-Rays minor leaguer Jean Machi slammed the door for 1.2 innings, tossing perfect ball with 3 strikeouts. Machi was the only pitcher in the game who could truly say he had a great game. The game was 11-7 entering the 9th with Enrique Gonzalez on the mound. But Gonzalez walked Luis Valbuena to begin his outing before Oswaldo Navarro drilled a 2-run home run to make it 11-9. The Cardenales were a bloop and a blast away from an unbelievable comeback. Roberto Perez followed with a bloop- but Elvis Andrus was able to make the catch. And then even in a game ruled by hitting, pitching reigned supreme at the end, with Gonzalez striking out Tomas Perez and Paulo Orlando to end the game as Magallanes won 11-9. Machi earned the win despite not being the pitcher of record in the game because everyone else was so bad, and Rivero took the loss. Magallanes came back from a 3-2 deficit to win the final two games of the series, and although it was ugly at the end, they came through when it mattered most and will move on to the Caribbean Series.

Venezuelan Winter League Championship Series: Navegantes de Magallanes 7, Cardenales de Lara 3

With elimination on the line, the Navegantes de Magallanes came out strong and carried their early momentum to a 7-3 victory. The Cubs’ Luis Valbuena got Lara on the board first with a solo homer in the second inning, but Magallanes responded with 4 in the bottom of the inning on a 3-run homer by the Royals’ Mario Lisson and an RBI single by the Rangers’ Elvis Andrus. Lara got a run back in the 3rd to make it a 4-2 game, but Giants star Pablo Sandoval ended all hope of a Lara comeback in the bottom of the inning, drilling a 3-run homer, his 6th of the VWL Postseason to lead all players, to make it a 7-2 game. Even after a strong 2012 MLB Postseason highlighted by his 3 home runs in Game 1 of the World Series versus the Detroit Tigers, Sandoval continues to do everything he can to help his team win in the VWL playoffs. Gustavo Chacin, the ex-13-game winner for the Toronto Blue Jays, gave Magallanes 5 solid innings, allowing 2 runs on 3 hits, striking out 4 while walking 2, and the bullpen behind him let up just 1 additional run as Magallanes coasted to a big Game 6 win to force a Game 7 in the VWL Championship Series. Sandoval has been huge for Magallanes, hitting .295 with 6 homers and 23 RBI in 20 games for them this Postseason, and they’re going to need him to come up huge once again as the Navegantes and Lara risk it all with the winner going to the Caribbean Series.