#rays prospect Wil Myers just removed from @durhambulls game in 3rd inning. Omg y’all.

— Adam Sobsey (@sobsey) May 9, 2013

It didn’t make the slightest bit of sense. The Rays offense has been playing incredibly of late–it has surprisingly been the pitching that has been the problem–and Myers was mired in a slump, going just 4 for his last 23 (.174). Nevertheless, though, it seemed like it was really happening. Myers didn’t suffer any sort of injury and why else would he leave the game? It had to be a call-up, right? Nope. As it turned out, Myers left the game with a stomach problem. Nothing to see here. Myers will arrive in the major leagues eventually, but certainly not right now. Durham Bulls manager Charlie Montoyo could not believe how big of a deal it was that Myers left the game.

Montoyo said the tumult caused by lifting Myers got back to him: “I do understand because the kid’s a No. 1 prospect, but oh my God.”

— David Morrison (@DavidCMorrison) May 10, 2013

Plenty of reason for Kazmir to smile on Thursday. (Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports)

It’s incredible that Scott Kazmir simply made it back to the major leagues after watching his career come entirely apart. But it’s even more impressive to see him pitching like this. On Thursday afternoon, Kazmir dominated as much as ever for the Indians against the Oakland A’s, going 6 innings allowing just 1 run on 5 hits, striking out 10 while walking none. The Indians won the game 9-2. It was the first time Kazmir had struck out 10 batters in a game since 8/26/09, his final game as a Tampa Bay Ray, and just the fourth time in his career that he struck out 10 while walking none, last on 5/26/08. Kazmir struck out a career-high 13 against the A’s on 8/25/07. After a disastrous first start, Kazmir’s ERA on the season still stands at 4.87, but he has a 2.65 ERA and a 21-3 strikeout to walk ratio in 17 innings in his last three starts. It’s unlikely that Kazmir is about to become an ace in the major leagues again, but it’s clear that he still has something left in the tank and it will be exciting to see what he can do the rest of this season.

Back to the current Rays, the Rays have plenty of reason for optimism themselves with two of their key players set to return to the lineup on Tuesday: Luke Scott, in what will be his 2013 debut, and also Yunel Escobar, who has missed the last three games with a hamstring injury. As we covered in our Merrill Kelly, Felipe Rivero Dominant in Shutout Outings” href=”http://rayscoloredglasses.com/2013/04/28/the-undercards-merrill-kelly-felipe-rivero-dominant-in-shutout-outings/” target=”_blank”>minor league recap, Scott looked fine on Saturday one day following his early departure from a game after getting hit by a pitch in the elbow, and Scott will get reevaluated after one more rehab game today, with the possibility of him coming up for Tuesday’s game if everything looks good. It was unfortunate when Scott went down because he was just playing so well in spring training, and the Rays will expect big things from him as their designated hitter when he comes back.

In Escobar’s case, the Rays are taking it nice and easy with him, especially after seeing how Evan Longoria suffered a setback rushing back from his hamstring injury last season, and Joe Maddon hopes he will be ready for Tuesday.

“I don’t want to press him right now and then have any kind of setback,” Maddon said. “It’s getting better, but it’s not time to push it.”

The good news for the Rays is that Ben Zobrist has been doing great taking Escobar’s position at shortstop so they really have no incentive accelerating his timetable. Escobar has gotten off to a rough start to the season, but he has been much improved of late and you have to hope he’ll keep playing the way he’s capable when he returns.

If you’re a Rays fan, you have probably heard all about Jose Molina‘s pitch framing ability behind the plate. Ben Lindbergh of Baseball Prospectus covered This Week in Pitch Framing, and unsurprisingly, Molina figured in quite prominently even in what Linbergh described as a “slump week.” Linbergh showcased several “nasty” frames and generated a couple of reactions from hitters certainly worth laughing about (unless you were one of those hitters). No one is going to laud Molina’s offense, but his pitch framing is huge to the Rays’ success and that can’t be underestimated.

Let’s look at the Pitch F/X data on Kazmir from his first start for the Indians as well as the data we have from spring training to evaluate his pure stuff. The results aren’t really what matters here–anything he did in the spring can be basically dismissed and the same can be said of his first start because no pitcher as bad as their worst game–so what we’ll do is look at the velocity, movement, and usage of his pitches and attempt to analyze whether it’s good enough for Kazmir to keep going as a major league pitcher. The data is courtesy of Brooks Baseball while the graph is of my own creation.

Your first reaction looking at that has to be that this is a different Scott Kazmir we’re looking at here. Gone is the pitcher who pumped electric mid-90′s fastballs, devastating sliders, and solid changeups by hitters on his way to well over a strikeout per inning. In his place is a pitcher with the ability to miss some bats with a still very good slider and a changeup that isn’t all that far off but who also works harder to force weak contact and keep the ball on the ground a little more frequently. Kazmir still primarily throws his low-90′s fastball with good late life but has been mixing in a two-seamer with outstanding movement towards right-handed batters and has also been resorting to his secondary pitches much more often. And between his four pitches, there is plenty of concern for Kazmir but also reasons for optimism.

Even with his Pitch F/X-described sinker, Kazmir will remain a flyball pitcher on the whole. To beat hitters on his fastball despite just average velocity, Kazmir resorts to two different types of movement: the late life on his four-seamer and the big horizontal run on his two-seamer. Neither one of Kazmir’s fastballs has all that much sink and when he’s successful he’s going to be allowing a lot of routine flyballs and pop-ups as opposed to contact on the ground. But with not as much velocity at his disposal, Kazmir has to do a better job keeping the ball down in the zone because mistakes at 91 MPH can go a long way. Another concern lies in throwing his two-seamer within the zone. Kazmir’s four-seamer has always been his bread-and-butter and the pitch he can throw for strikes the most easily, but his two-seamer is a pitch he isn’t used to throwing and its substantial movement and the result of that has been extremely inconsistent command. It doesn’t matter how well it moves if Kazmir can’t throw it for strikes. Kazmir’s four-seam fastball is not a good enough pitch for him to use it 50 or 60% of the time anymore, but when he doesn’t know where his two-seamer, he’s forced to rely on it far too often. The continued development of Kazmir’s two-seamer to take the load off his four-seamer is going to be critical to his success.

Kazmir’s slider is no longer the unhittable pitch in the mid-80′s that it once was, but even in the low-80′s it still shows dynamic late bite with the ability to force plenty of swings-and-misses. However, for that to happen it has to be set up by his fastball. Kazmir doesn’t do a great job throwing his slider for called strikes and he has to get ahead in the count for it be a real weapon. Kazmir has always been an orthodox pitcher, working with fastball-slider instead of fastball-curveball or sinker-slider, but now with his two-seam fastball coming into play, Kazmir could beat hitters with a tantalizing combination of big movement on his two-seamer and sharp action on his slider. Kazmir’s slider was especially effective in the past because he was throwing his fastball so much more often that hitters couldn’t sit slider and saw it jump on them whenever he delivered it. Kazmir has to be careful not to fall in love with his slider even if it might be his best offering at this point and simply use it another pitch in his arsenal or his inability to throw it for called strikes could get him into serious trouble. If he keeps his slider usage right around the 17% clip that it has been his entire career, it can resume being a great put-away pitch for him and a pitch that hitters quickly learn to hate once again.

Then there is the changeup, the pitch Kazmir learned from James Shields to complement his fastball and slider back in the day. Kazmir doesn’t locate it nearly as well as Shields does, but he’s able to get nice sink on it and it could be even more effective since its movement mirrors his two-seamer. Kazmir’s changeup is especially important as a weapon against right-handed batters. Elite fastball velocity can beat anyone, but now that Kazmir’s fastball isn’t as hard, he’s going to depend more on deception, something he has less of against righties. Kazmir’s slider is relatively split-neutral, but his changeup is an asset as a pitch he can both throw into the zone and out of it, and retire hitters even when they’re laying off his slider down in the zone. Kazmir does need to work on throwing it for strikes consistently as its great movement makes it another pitch Kazmir struggles at times to control. What Kazmir really needs to finish off his arsenal is a groundball offering, and his changeup is decidedly not that. However, it gives him yet another swing-and-miss pitch and another thing for hitters, especially from the right side, to think about, and as a fourth offering, it can more than fill its role for Kazmir moving forward.

Scott Kazmir has clear work to do commanding his two-seamer better to reduce the load on his four-seamer and not falling in love with his slider. He has never been a pitcher who has done a great job throwing strikes, and with reduced stuff, that becomes even more important. However, he still has a plus offering in his slider and three more pitches that can still be effective, and with that in mind, Scott Kazmir could still have several more promising years in his career. Kazmir has always been inconsistent and that might be even more the case now as he won’t be able to get away with nearly as many mistakes as he used to. But on the whole, Kazmir has enough left to be at least a 4th or 5th starter in the major leagues who may be far from the most dependable pitcher in the world but delivers flashes of dominance. There are no guarantees of that happening, but if a few things go right, Indians fans and Rays fans rooting for their former ace could have something to be excited about.