Left Field

Cody Rogers, who turned 24 in September, is not exactly at his high point as prospect right now after a tough 2012 followed by a 50-game suspension for next season after he refused to undergo a drug test. The struggle of a season and the need to take whatever we he took may have gone hand and hand. In any event, Rogers, who was a 7th round pick by the Rays back in 2009, did not have the type 2012 he was hoping for, managing just a .244/.312/.343 line with 12 doubles, 6 triples, 4 homers, 38 RBI, 22 of 26 stolen bases, and 99 strikeouts against 30 walks in 112 games and 413 plate appearances. Rogers, if he can overcome this suspension, is an athletic 6’2″, 175 outfielder with some interesting tools. Rogers shows above-average speed that allows him to steal bases and profile in both center and left field (he differed to Ty Morrison, Kevin Kiermaier, and Mikie Mahtook and played primarily left field), and he also flashes of nice raw power (he had 11 triples and 12 homers in 2011). However, Rogers three potential above-average tools are counteracted by a series of issues: below average patience and pitch recognition, a swing that gets too long as he sells out for power, struggles pitching up the ball versus left-handed pitching, and defensively he has a below-average arm. Before the suspension it was unlikely things were ever going to come together, and now that’s even more the case. Rogers has enough tools that the Rays will wait on him for now, but the suspension takes his prospect stock, which was already down after a poor season, down another notch.

Steven Tinoco, who will turn 24 in April, was a 34th round pick in 2010 out of Cal State Long Beach, Evan Longoria‘s alma mater, and played a super-utility role for the Stone Crabs in 2012. Tinoco had a halfway-decent season, posting a .281/.318/.323 line with 8 doubles, 1 homer, 27 RBI, 3 of 4 stolen bases, and 24 strikeouts against 16 walks in 83 games and 324 plate appearances while playing first base, second base, third base, left field, right field, and pitcher. In his three professional seasons, Tinoco hit just 1 homer each year, but his batting average stayed very stable as well and actually went up a bit, going from .274 to .277 to .281 the past three years. Tinoco is 6’0″, 200 and played first base in college, but he’s a contact oriented hitter who has never shown any power. According to Minor League Central, 57.9% of Tinoco’s batted balls were groundballs, the highest ratio in the Florida State League minimum 200 plate appearances, and that’s especially alarming considering he isn’t fast. Tinoco didn’t strike out at all but his patience was very poor as well as he walked in just 4.9% of his plate appearances, and his indiscriminate approach prevented him from hitting the ball with any authority. If Tinoco is going anywhere as a professional baseball player, that has to change. Defensively, Tinoco has a strong arm and halfway-decent range and is a good defensive first baseman and left fielder who can fake all the other positions. He wasn’t so successful off the mound, allowing a 6.75 ERA in 3 relief appearances and 4 innings pitched, striking out 1 and walking 1 as well. Tinoco is a utility player at best and doesn’t seem to have a great chance of getting there, but it’s great to see him trying every possible avenue to help the team and keep his career going.

Kiermaier will never be a power hitter but did show improved gap power in the Arizona Fall League. (Credit: Flickr user chrishwish)

Centerfield

Kevin Kiermaier, who will turn 23 in April, was the Rays’ 31st round pick in 2010 but has been great since the moment he entered the Rays system and the type of player that the Rays can’t get enough of. Kiermaier had a pair of stints on the disabled list but was excellent when healthy, starting the season with the Stone Crabs and finishing the season at Triple-A before tearing up the Arizona Fall League. In the regular season, Kiermaier managed a .260/.363/.359 line with 7 doubles, 6 triples, 13 RBI, 10 of 14 stolen bases, and 41 strikeouts versus 29 walks in 63 games and 230 plate appearances, 212 of which came with Charlotte. In the Arizona Fall League working to make up for some of the lost time, Kiermaier posted a .348/.444/.493 line with 6 doubles, 2 triples, 7 RBI, 7 of 7 stolen bases, and a 12-12 strikeout to walk ratio in 23 games and 82 plate appearances. Kiermaier, an athletic 6’1″, 200, doesn’t feature great power but does just about everything else well. He has well above-average speed that allows him to swipe a few bases, play a great centerfield, and possibly most importantly, beat out a lot of groundballs and bunts. He’ll never be anywhere near a home run power, but he has shown of flashes of gap power and showcased that in the Arizona Fall League, albeit in a very small sample. Kiermaier swings and misses a little too often for a player without much power, but his plate discipline is excellent and he does everything he can to get on base. Kiermaier is also a left-handed hitter with a very little platoon split, hitting .348 against both righties and lefties in the Arizona Fall League (although the OPS difference was .966 versus .879) and was actually a touch better against lefties on the regular season (.743 OPS against .699). Defensively, Kiermaier combines his great range in centerfield with an above-average arm and is a strong defender at all three outfield positions. The Rays named him their organizational Defensive Player of the Year despite all the time he missed, and you can’t blame them. Kiermaier fits the fourth outfielder profile to a T as long as his injury problems are behind him, and he could appear in that type of a role for the Rays before long, maybe as soon as next September. Kiermaier filled in at Triple-A at the end of the season and went 3 for 12, and he could skip over Double-A and start the season back there with a strong showing in spring training.

Right Field

Mikie Mahtook, who turned 23 at the end of November, was the second of the Rays’ 10 first and supplemental round picks in the 2011 MLB Draft, and he was supposed to spend just a short time with the Stone Crabs before moving up to Double-A, Triple-A, and maybe even the big leagues by the end of the season. Instead, Mahtook was in Charlotte until late July and then struggled after his promotion to Double-A. In 131 games and 555 plate appearances between Charlotte and Double-A Montgomery, Mahtook posted a .277/.342/.415 line with 25 doubles, 8 triples, 9 homers, 62 RBI, 23 of 32 stolen bases, and 102 strikeouts versus 40 walks. Mahtook was really not that bad, but what stands out immediately, especially for a hitter considered to be advanced, was his strikeout to walk ratio. Mahtook, who fits the same physical profile as Kiermaier at 6’1″, 200, stood out before the draft as a 5-tool talent, featuring quick and compact swing, solid power, above-average speed, good range defensively, and an average arm, and he also made his mark at LSU for his passion every time he took the field. We saw all of Mahtook’s abilities come into play, but a lack of patience and bizarre struggles versus left-handed pitching. Mahtook didn’t strike out an awful lot in 2012, whiffing at an 18.4% clip, but he walked at only a 7.2% mark in 2012 and that not only limited his defense but the quality of his contact as well as he hit a lot of balls weakly in the air. Why did it happen? His pitch recognition is fine, but he was overaggressive and didn’t do a good job finding pitches to drive, perhaps as a result of the pressure on him to perform. Mahtook is known as an emotional player, and he may have been too hard on himself after a rough April. Mahtook walked more than he struck out in his last year at LSU, so the hope is that he can relax and get his plate discipline on track to help him get on base more and hit for additional power. More strange was Mahtook’s platoon split in 2012. Mahtook hit to a nice .292/.367/.451 line against righties but just .253/.302/.354 against lefties, proving better in every regard against same-side pitchers. His strikeout to walk ratio, though, was slightly better versus lefties, 2.27 to 1 compared to 2.6 to 1 (lower is better), so that’s hopefully a sign of things to come. While he had his share of struggles offensively, Mahtook did play fine defense, playing primarily right field with a fair amount of time in centerfield and combining for 13 outfield assists between the two positions. Mikie Mahtook failed to live up to the expectations set for him in 2012, but the Rays still really like his abilities and hope that with a full year of pro ball under his belt he’s primed for a breakout 2013 as he starts the season back at Double-A.

Just among the outfielders we discussed today, we could be looking at an outfield starter and fourth outfielder type that could make an impact in Tampa Bay over the next two years. Kiermaier and Mahtook both passed were promoted from Charlotte to higher levels over the course of the season, and a productive year next year could mean a trip to the big leagues in September. Everyone has kinks to work out in their games, but their abilities are real and the Rays know that they could be major pieces of future teams.

For more of our thoughts on the Rays’ prospects at every level of the minors, check out our Minor League Affiliates Analysis page here at RCG.

The Rays farm system had a rough day, going 2-5, including a sweep in a doubleheader on Sunday. However, there were positives, as Bruedlin Suero combined with three relievers on a 1-0 shutout. Here is your morning recap of yesterday’s action.

Toledo Mud Hens 4, Durham Bulls 3

The Bulls jumped out to an early lead, but the Toledo Mud Hens came right back, and scored a 4-3 victory Sunday night. Durham scored three times in the top of the first, as Stephen Vogt and Chris Gimenez each had RBI singles, and Brooks Conrad hit a sacrifice fly. The Mud Hens came right back with three of their own in the bottom of the inning, tying the game on Don Kelly‘s three run home run. Toledo pulled ahead in the bottom of the fourth, as Jerad Head doubled, plating Justin Henry for a 4-3 lead. The Bulls had a scoring opportunity in the top of the fifth, with Rich Thompson on third and one out, but were unable to cash in the runner. Toledo pitching then shut down the Bulls the rest of the way, as the Mud Hens won 4-3. Chris Archer picked up the loss, allowing 4 earned runs on 9 hits and 2 walks, while striking out 5 in 6 innings of work. Thompson was 2-4 with a double, a run scored, and a stolen base.

Montgomery Biscuits 5, Jackson Generals 2

The Generals jumped out to a quick 2-0 lead, as they loaded the bases with no one out in the top of the first inning. After a fly out, Rich Poythress had a two run single, putting the Generals up 2-0. The Biscuits got one of the runs back in the bottom of the second, as Derek Dietrich singled, moved to third on Kyeong Kang‘s double, and scored on a sacrifice fly by Brett Nommensen. Montgomery took the lead in the bottom of the fifth, as Mark Thomas tripled to lead off the inning. Shawn O’Malley singled, driving in Thomas to tie the game, and came around to score on Mikie Mahtook‘s two out, two run home run. The Biscuits tacked on another run in the bottom of the sixth, as O’Malley singled again, and scored on a single by Omar Luna, providing the final run in the Biscuits’ 5-2 victory. Nick Barnese picked up the win, giving up 2 runs on 6 hits and 2 walks while striking out 3 over 6 innings of work. O’Malley and Kang each had 3 hits in the win.

Jupiter Hammerheads 5, Charlotte Stone Crabs 4 (Game One, 7 innings)

In the first game of a rain induced doubleheader, the Hamerheads and the Stone Crabs were tied at 1-1 through four innings. In the fifth, Jupiter took the lead as Marcell Ozuna hit a three run home run with one out, putting the Hammerheads up 4-1. Charlotte got a run back in the bottom of the sixth, as they loaded the bases with one out on a single, an error, and a hit batsman. Lucas Bailey hit a sacrifice fly, scoring Steven Tinoco to trim the lead to 4-2. Jupiter got the run back in the top of the seventh, as Christian Yelich doubled, and scored on Ozuna’s RBI single. The Stone Crabs rallied, scoring two runs in the bottom of the frame on Tinoco’s two out single, but the Hammerheads were able to hold on to the 5-4 victory. Albert Koronis took the loss, giving up 4 runs on 5 hits and a walk over 3 innings. Tinoco went 4-4 with a run scored and 2 RBI in the loss.

Jupiter Hammerheads 6, Charlotte Stone Crabs 1 (Game Two, 7 innings)

In the second game of the doubleheader, the Hammerheads jumped out to an early lead, and cruised to a 6-1 victory. Jupiter scored five times in the top of the second, highlighted by a two run double by Christian Yelich and a bases loaded walk for Mark Canha. Charlotte got one of the runs back in the bottom of the third, as Robbie Price tripled with two outs, and came around to score on Todd Glaesmann‘s double. The Hammerheads got the run back in the top of the sixth, as Blake Barber singled, moved to third on a single by Yelich, and scored on a sacrifice fly. Eliazer Suero was hammered in the loss, giving up 5 runs (4 earned) on 3 hits and 4 walks over 1.1 innings of work. Glaesmann was 1-3 with a double and an RBI in the loss.

West Michigan Whitecaps 3, Bowling Green Hot Rods 2

The Whitecaps used a two run third inning to take the lead, and held on to defeat the Bowling Green Hot Rods 3-2. The Hot Rods scored first, as Ryan Brett led off the game with a home run to put Bowling Green up 1-0. The Whitecaps got the run back in the bottom of the inning, as Chad Wright walked, stole second, moved to third on a wild pitch, and scored on a two out single by Aaron Westlake. West Michigan took the lead in the bottom of the third, as Brandon Loy doubled with one out, and scored on a single by Eugenio Suarez. Suarez scored on an RBI double by Westlake, giving the Whitecaps a 3-1 lead. Bowling Green got a run back in the top of the eighth, as Juniel Querecuto scored on a double by Jeff Malm. With the bases loaded and one out, Nicholas Avila struck out Kes Carter and got Joshua Sale to pop out, ending the threat, as West Michigan held on for the win. Felipe Rivero took the loss, giving up 3 runs on 5 hits and a walk over 3 innings, striking out 2 batters. Westlake was 2-4 with a double and 2 RBI in the defeat.

Lowell Spinners 5, Hudson Valley Renegades 2

The Spinners completed the sweep of the Renegades, handing them a 5-2 defeat on Sunday. Lowell loaded the bases with no outs in the top of the first, and scored a run on a double play. The Renegades tied the game in the bottom of the second, as Jake DePew drove in Luke Maile with a two out single. Lowell loaded the bases again with none out in the top of the fifth, and scored another run on a double play. Deven Marrero singled, driving in Matthew Gedman to give the Spinners a 3-1 lead. The Renegades got a run back in the bottom of the sixth, as Richie Shaffer singled, moved to second on a wild pitch, and came around to score on two groundouts. The Spinners scored again in the top of the eighth, as Dreily Guerrero hit a one out, two run double, giving Lowell a 5-2 victory. Sean Biermann took a tough loss, giving up 3 runs (1 earned) on 7 hits and 2 walks, striking out 1 in 6 innings of work. DePew went 2-4 with an RBI in the defeat.

Princeton Rays 1, Greeneville Astros 0

Scoreless into the bottom of the fourth, the Rays scratched a run across, providing the final margin of victory. With one out, William Argo was hit by a pitch, stole second, and scored on a single by Omar Navarez. The Rays threatened to put more runs on the board in the bottom of the seventh, with runners on second and third with two out. However, James Harris struck out, ending the threat. The one run was all that Rays starter Bruedlin Suero needed, as he and three relievers combined on a five hit shutout. Suero gave up 5 hits and struck out 2 in 6 innings of work, picking up his fourth victory. John Alexander was 2-3 with 2 stolen bases.

Sunday was a day of mixed results for the minor league affiliates, as the farm teams went 3-3 on the day. Despite some lackluster performances, there were positives in each game, highlighted by Alex Colome‘s first nine inning complete game.

Norfolk Tides 8, Durham Bulls 7

Bulls starter Alexander Torres was shelled, lasting only .2 innings, giving up 6 earned runs on 3 hits, a hit batter, and 3 walks while striking out one batter. The Bulls did rally back, scoring twice in the top of the second, three times in the top of the sixth and once again in the top of the ninth; however, the damage had already been done. Matt Torra did admirable work to give the Bulls a chance, permitting only 2 earned runs on 7 hits and 1 walk over 5.1 innings. Evan Longoria went 1-3 as the designated hitter, with a walk and two strikeouts.

Montgomery Biscuits 5, Mississippi Braves 2

Alex Colome threw his first career nine inning complete game, as the Biscuits beat the Mississippi Braves 5-2. Colome gave the 2 earned runs on only 6 hits, striking out 6 batters without issuing a walk. Shawn O’Malley, Ty Morrison, Mikie Mathook, and Greg Sexton each had two hits. For the Braves, Todd Cunningham provided most of the offense, going 2-4 with both runs scored, a stolen base, and a double.

Dunedin Blue Jays 8, Charlotte Stone Crabs 2

Brandon Morrow made his first rehab appearance for the Blue Jays, holding the Stone Crabs to 3 hits and 1 walk over 3 scoreless innings of work. Dunedin jumped on Charlotte starter Albert Suarez in the second, scoring 6 times and essentially putting the game away. Suarez made it through 4 innings, giving up the 6 earned runs on 9 hits, including 3 home runs. The Stone Crabs cut the lead to 6-2 in the top of the seventh, however the Blue Jays scored twice more in the bottom of the eighth, ending any thoughts of a comeback win. Designated hitter Steven Tinoco went 2-4 with a run scored.

Bowling Green Hot Rods 5, West Michigan Whitecaps 4

Bowling Green held off a late rally, escaping situations with a runner on third and one out in both the eighth and ninth innings to come away with a 5-4 victory. Trevor Shull picked up with win, going 5 innings and allowing 2 runs (1 earned) on 5 hits and 3 walks, while striking out 3 batters. Right fielder Drew Vettleson hit his 10th home run of the season, and ended the day 2-4 with 2 runs scored and 2 RBI.

Hudson Valley Renegades 9, Williamsport Crosscutters 2

After falling behind 2-0 in the top of the second, the Renegades exploded, scoring 4 times in the second, once in the third, and 3 times in the fourth en route to a 9-2 victory. Justin O’Conner, Richie Schaffer, Luke Maile, and Ryan Dunn each had two hits, with O’Conner hitting a 3 run home run in the fourth. Eduar Quinonez picked up the victory in relief, pitching 4 innings of shutout ball, giving up 3 hits without a walk, while striking out 4 batters. Jonathan Musser had a rough start for Williamsport, lasting only 2.2 innings, giving up 5 runs (4 earned) on 4 hits and 3 walks, while striking out 1 Renegade.

Burlington Royals 5, Princeton Rays 4

The Burlington Royals scored 4 runs in the bottom of the first, and another run in the bottom of the second, holding on for a 5-4 win. The Rays scored twice in the top of the second, and twice again in the top of the eighth, making the game close. Kenny Diekroeger had a bases loaded triple in the bottom of the first. Rays starter Johnathan Weaver lasted only 2 innings, giving up 5 earned runs on 4 hits and three walks. For the Rays, Ariel Soriano went 2-4 with 2 RBI, a double, and 2 strikeouts.