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	<title>Rays Colored Glasses &#187; Theron Geith</title>
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		<title>Reviewing the Ben Francisco Trade</title>
		<link>http://rayscoloredglasses.com/2012/10/17/reviewing-the-ben-francisco-trade/</link>
		<comments>http://rayscoloredglasses.com/2012/10/17/reviewing-the-ben-francisco-trade/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 17 Oct 2012 21:47:02 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Robbie Knopf</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Looking Back At The 2012 Season]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ben Francisco]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Houston Astros]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Tampa Bay Rays]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Theron Geith]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://rayscoloredglasses.com/?p=8501</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>As the September stretch drive approached, the Rays made one final move in an attempt to add some run production, acquiring outfielder Ben Francisco from the Houston Astros in exchange for left-handed reliever Theron Geith. This trade looks like an automatic failure for the Rays because they failed to make the postseason and Francisco will [...]</p><p><a href="http://rayscoloredglasses.com/2012/10/17/reviewing-the-ben-francisco-trade/">Reviewing the Ben Francisco Trade</a> - <a href="http://rayscoloredglasses.com">Rays Colored Glasses</a> - <a href="http://rayscoloredglasses.com">Rays Colored Glasses - A Tampa Bay Rays Fan Site - News, Blogs, Opinion and More</a></p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>As the September stretch drive approached, the Rays made one final move in an attempt to add some run production, acquiring outfielder <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/francbe01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker-rayscoloredglasses.com" target="_blank">Ben Francisco</a></strong> from the Houston Astros in exchange for left-handed reliever <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=geith-001the" target="_blank">Theron Geith</a>. This trade looks like an automatic failure for the Rays because they failed to make the postseason and Francisco will be non-tendered in November, meaning that they basically gave up Geith for one month of Francisco. How much will the Rays regret this trade?</p>
<p>Francisco played decently for the Rays in September, posting a .228/.270/.421 line (91 OPS+) with 5 doubles, 2 homers, and 8 RBI in 24 games. He received some starts in right field in place of <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/joycema01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker-rayscoloredglasses.com" target="_blank">Matthew Joyce</a></strong> and at least offensively he was better as Joyce managed just a .187/.291/.360 line. But was it such a good thing that Francisco was playing over Joyce? Both Baseball-Reference and Fangraphs have Francisco&#8217;s contribution to the Rays as slightly negative, -0.1 and -0.2 wins above replacement respectively. Francisco was halfway-decent offensively, but whatever he provided he essentially gave back with his defense. And although Joyce was probably worse, you never know whether he could have finally hit his stride if he was given the starts that Francisco took from him. There&#8217;s basically no good way to spin Francisco&#8217;s time with the Rays. He gave them nothing.</p>
<p>The cost of the Rays taking a shot with Francisco was Geith, 23, the Rays&#8217; 39th round pick in 2011. Geith, a 6&#8217;5&#8243;, 175 lefty, was unequivocally great this season, going 0-3 with a 2.98 ERA, an 8.1 K/9, a 1.8 BB/9, and a 0.3 HR/9 in 31 relief appearances. <a href="http://minorleaguecentral.com/player?pid=572866" target="_blank">Minor League Central</a> also had his groundball rate at a robust 48.0%. Why would the Rays get rid of someone like that? The obvious answer is pure stuff, which isn&#8217;t too special. Geith appears to have projection remaining, but right now his fastball is just in the high-80&#8242;s. He does get a solid downward plane on it and commands it decently, but it&#8217;s nothing much. Geith&#8217;s best offering is his low-80&#8242;s slider, which features sharp, tight break and forced quite a few swings-and-misses this season. However, Geith&#8217;s poor fastball forces him to throw it so often and more advanced hitters will be able to recognize more easily and lay off, putting Geith in a bind. He also throws a changeup, but that hasn&#8217;t made much progress. Worst-case scenario, Geith becomes a situational lefty someday.</p>
<p>This isn&#8217;t a case where the Rays foolishly gave up a pitcher throwing in the mid-90&#8242;s for a month of a backup outfielder. Geith has just modest potential and the Rays were willing to risk that in exchange for a player they thought could help them make the playoffs. It didn&#8217;t work out, but the cost here certainly was not that high. The Rays lost this trade, but they had the right idea, trading an unimpressive prospect for a player in Francisco who had shown some ability in the past, slamming 15 homers in 2008 and 2009, and the Rays hoped he would be electrified by the thought of going from the last place team in baseball in the Astros to a contender, the Rays. In the end, the Rays lost this trade. But when you take enough calculated risks, some will work out, and maybe the next trade like this the Rays make will make a positive impact in the Rays&#8217; performance and help them secure a playoff berth this coming season. Just because this trade looks bad now doesn&#8217;t mean it wasn&#8217;t the right move at the time. When Andrew Friedman sees another opportunity for a low-risk gamble, he&#8217;ll take it knowing that next time might turn it better.</p>
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		<title>Rays Notes: Dave Martinez Finalist for Astros Manager, Ben Francisco Trade, Strikeouts</title>
		<link>http://rayscoloredglasses.com/2012/09/21/rays-notes-dave-martinez-finalist-for-astros-manager-ben-francisco-trade-strikeouts/</link>
		<comments>http://rayscoloredglasses.com/2012/09/21/rays-notes-dave-martinez-finalist-for-astros-manager-ben-francisco-trade-strikeouts/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 21 Sep 2012 14:17:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Robbie Knopf</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Breaking News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rays]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dave Martinez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Houston Astros]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Popular]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Theron Geith]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://rayscoloredglasses.com/?p=8092</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>It has been an exciting time for the Rays the past two days and more good news continued to come in. Rays bench coach Dave Martinez got great news on Thursday as he is one of the front-runners for the Houston Astros&#8217; managerial job along with Red Sox bench coach Tim Bogar according to Nick [...]</p><p><a href="http://rayscoloredglasses.com/2012/09/21/rays-notes-dave-martinez-finalist-for-astros-manager-ben-francisco-trade-strikeouts/">Rays Notes: Dave Martinez Finalist for Astros Manager, Ben Francisco Trade, Strikeouts</a> - <a href="http://rayscoloredglasses.com">Rays Colored Glasses</a> - <a href="http://rayscoloredglasses.com">Rays Colored Glasses - A Tampa Bay Rays Fan Site - News, Blogs, Opinion and More</a></p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It has been an exciting time for the Rays the past two days and more good news continued to come in.</p>
<p>Rays bench coach Dave Martinez got great news on Thursday as he is one of the front-runners for the Houston Astros&#8217; managerial job along with Red Sox bench coach Tim Bogar according to <a href="http://rayscoloredglasses.com/2012/09/21/analyzing-the-2012-princeton-rays-part-3/?preview=true" target="_blank">Nick Cafardo</a>. Martinez is one of the nicest guys around the Rays and is a very intelligent baseball guy who has only learned more as he has served under Joe Maddon, and best of luck to him as the Astros decide which manager will guide them through their rebuilding process and eventually back to contention.</p>
<p>In other Rays-Astros news, the two teams decided on who the player to be named would be for the <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/francbe01.shtml?utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Ben Francisco</a></strong> trade that happened back on August 31st: left-handed reliever <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_campaign=Linker&amp;id=geith-001the" target="_blank">Theron Geith</a></strong>. Geith, 23, pitched well for High-A Charlotte this season, posting a 2.98 ERA, an 8.1 K/9, a 1.8 BB/9, and a 0.3 HR/9 in 31 games and 54.2 IP. Geith, who was the Rays&#8217; 39th round pick in 2011, is a 6&#8217;4&#8243;, 170 lefty with a fastball in just the high-80&#8242;s and a good slider. He&#8217;s a little bit interesting because he&#8217;s a lefty who may have some projection remaining, but trading him was certainly worthwhile to acquire an outfielder to contribute to the Rays&#8217; MLB effort immediately. Good luck to Geith in his new organization.</p>
<p>And finally, the Rays are on track to set two American League records: team strikeouts- for both their pitchers and hitters. Rays pitched have now struck out 1264 opposing hitters, just 2 short of the AL record set by the 2001 New York Yankees. The Rays have seen starters <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/priceda01.shtml?utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">David Price</a></strong>, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/shielja02.shtml?utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">James Shields</a></strong>, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/moorema02.shtml?utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Matt Moore</a></strong>, and lately <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/archech01.shtml?utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Chris Archer</a></strong> all strike out batters at a rate of 8.5 or higher per 9 innings while <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/peraljo01.shtml?utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Joel Peralta</a></strong>, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mcgeeja01.shtml?utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Jake McGee</a></strong>, and Joel Peralta all have strikeout rate of 11.0 or higher per 9 innings out of the bullpen as the Rays have managed to get together a set of electric arms this season. Congrats to them on that record, which they should set on Friday night. For the hitters, they&#8217;re currently at 1221 K&#8217;s on the season, on pace to break the MLB record of 1324 held by the 2007 Devil Rays. You can&#8217;t exactly be proud of that, but it is what it is and it doesn&#8217;t matter if the Rays can find ways to win games.</p>
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