Trevor Shull, who turned 22 in August, was the Rays’ 18th round pick in 2008 and has become a waiting game for the Rays for the last five years. They’re still waiting. In 2012 for the Hot Rods, Shull went 5-7 with a 5.05 ERA, a 6.0 K/9, a 5.3 BB/9, and a 0.3 HR/9 in 13 starts, 15 relief appearances, and 82 innings pitched. Shull remains a 6’4″, 200 right-hander never really growing into his frame as of now and failing to get his fastball velocity up to the level the Rays thought he would be at by this point in his career. Shull’s fastball hits just the high-80′s at this point, and while he does get good sink on it, as evidenced by his great HR/9 and his 47.7% groundball rate in 2012 per Minor League Central, and has never been a swing-and-miss pitch and his secondary pitches have never developed as good enough offerings for Shull to overcome that. Shull throws a changeup and a curveball, with the changeup occasionally flashing plus with good arm action and nice sink, but he fails to command it consistently, sometimes leaving it up in the zone and hittable and at other times failing to make it look anything like a strike. The curveball has its moments but gets slurvy far too often without Shull being able to control it either, and that has led to Shull being in the frustrating position of being a right-handed pitcher who’s more effective against left-handed batters. Shull still has promise- he’s doing fine on the age relative to level curve and he still has plenty of room to grow as a pitcher- but it seems less and less likely that he’s ever going to amount to anything as a pitcher after he has made so little progress so far. Shull will look to defy the odds as his professional career continues.

Lefty Jacob Partridge, who’ll turn 22 this month, was drafted in the same round as Shull one year later, in the 18th round of the 2009 MLB Draft, and has shown significantly more progress the last few years. Partridge was the Hot Rods’ long relief ace in 2012, going 5-1 with a 2.51 ERA, an 8.7 K/9, a 3.5 BB/9, and a 0.2 HR/9 in 3 starts, 31 relief appearances, and 96.2 innings pitched. Partridge, 6’3″, 200, gets his fastball up into the low-90′s with enough late life to miss some bats and force weak contact, although too much of it in the air as he struggles to command it. Where Partridge has most progressed since signing is his changeup, which has evolved into a weapon for him against right-handed batters thanks to late action that makes the bottom fall out of it, but Partridge found himself relying on it too much against righties as his fastball didn’t have nearly as much deception against opposite-side hitters and hitters were able to lay off of it as they saw it more. Partridge also needs to figure out how to throw his changeup for strikes as opposed to simply using it for a chase offering. Partridge’s third pitch, a slider, also shows promise, although Partridge doesn’t get enough break on it consistently and uses it more as more of a groundball pitch. Partridge didn’t start in 2012, but he threw 96.2 innings, 6th on the team after the five starters, and after a promising season he could be placed into a starting role next season at High-A Charlotte. Partridge’s upside is likely a mid-rotation starter, but he continues to progress as a pitcher and we’ll see just how far he can go.

Andrew Bellatti, who turned 21 in August, was drafted 6 rounds ahead of Partridge in the 2009 MLB Draft and paired with Partridge to give Bowling Green a great left-right relief combo. Bellatti went 7-3 with a 2.97 ERA, a 9.8 K/9, a 3.0 BB/9, and a 0.9 HR/9 in 39 relief appearances, 1 starts, and 91 innings pitched. Unlike Shull and Partridge, Bellatti isn’t a prospect with all that much projection at 6’1″, 170, but he still has an interesting arsenal. His fastball stays around 90 MPH, and Bellatti is able to throw it for a lot of strikes, and like another Rays pitcher who’s 6’1″, Jeremy Hellickson, Bellatti gets good late movement and was able to force a lot of weak contact in the air in 2012. The question is whether that will persist. His groundball rate was an alarmingly bad 29.6% in 2012, the worst rate in the Midwest League minimum 50 innigs pitched, certainly not a good sign. With fastball velocity that isn’t that great, Bellatti has to improve his fastball command and gets his groundball rate up into reasonable levels. The Hellickson comps end with the fastball as Bellatti’s best pitch is not a changeup but a slider, a pitch that flashes plus with tight late break and is particularly effective against right-handed batters but also works against lefties. Bellatti gets into trouble when he tries to overthrow it and ends up losing command of it and leaving it up in the zone. His command of it is going to be even more important moving forward as his fastball will continue to play down and it will harder for Bellatti to sell it, necessitating him to make his slider a more consistent pitch for it to continue being effective. Bellatti does throw a changeup, but he has never gotten ahold of it and can’t throw it for strikes on a regular basis. Even though he gave the Hot Rods length and is a year younger than the two guys above, Bellatti’s upside appears to be in a relief role, but with his sharp slider he has a chance to be solid bullpen arm for the Rays someday even without a premium fastball if he can continue improving his repertoire.

The Rays had seven players test positive for various drugs, some recreational and others performance-enhancing, in 2012 and receive 50-game suspension from Minor League Baseball. Four of them remain in the organization. Three of them being retained make sense- Tim Beckham, Josh Sale, and Ryan Brett are all top prospects for the Rays, and although their suspensions cannot exactly inspire confidence, you hope that they’ll be able to overcome their lapse in judgement and get back on track. But the surprise was the fourth player who the Rays kept in the fold: right-hander Charlie Cononie. Cononie, who will turn 24 in February, was the Rays’ 24th round pick in 2011 and put up intriguing numbers in 2012. Cononie managed a 2-4 record with a 4.20 ERA, a 10.4 K/9, a 6.8 BB/9, and a 0.2 HR/9 in 34 relief appearances and 60 innings pitched. Cononie, a big 6’7″, 210, apparently has enough potential for the Rays to give him a second chance. Cononie works primarily with a two-seam fastball in the 92-94 MPH range with heavy sink at its best and big run, leading to Cononie’s outstanding 63.1% groundball rate on the season but also a ton of his walks as its big movement made him struggle mightily to control it even as he kept it down well. His arm slot varies too often, giving his fastball all sorts of movement, including natural late cut at times, but making controlling it just even harder. Cononie pairs his fastball with a huge 11-to-5 breaking ball with outstanding depth that was a true swing-and-miss pitch when Cononie was able to sell it. Cononie couldn’t throw it for a strike and basically had to throw it off his fastball, a losing proposition because hitters assumed quite often that Cononie could not throw his fastball for a strike and were often proved right. Cononie also throws a changeup, yet another pitch that he can’t throw for a strike. Cononie’s size and arsenal make him interesting, but he has to find control- of both his life and of his arsenal- in order to be any sort of prospect.

Austin Hubbard, 24, was the Rays’ 14th round pick in 2010 and regressed in his second go-around with the Hot Rods in 2012 but also showed signs of progress. Hubbard went 2-6 in 2012 with a 4.11 ERA, an 11.4 K/9, a 3.9 BB/9, and a 1.1 HR/9 in 49 relief appearances and 57 innings pitched. Hubbard, a 6’2″, 206 right-hander, touches 93 MPH with his fastball but usually stays right around 90 MPH with the pitch. He controls it decently but it’s simply nothing special. Hubbard’s money pitch and the reason he has any potential at all is his low-80′s slider, which is a true swing-and-miss offering but only when Hubbard can establish his fastball, something he did a solid job of doing in 2012 but it’s questionable whether he can do that as he progresses through the minors. One swing-and-miss offering is nice, but Hubbard has to improve his fastball to have any pro prospects.

McEachern showed flashes in 2012, striking out over a batter per inning, but there is plenty of more work still to be done. (Credit: Flickr user Neil Alan Ralson)

And the last prospect we’ll cover on the 2012 Bowling Green Hot Rods is right-hander Jason McEachern, who turned 22 in October and was the Rays’ 13th round pick back in 2008. McEachern had nice results overall in  2012, going 2-2 with a 2.80 ERA, a 10.0 K/9, a 4.6 BB/9, and a 0.3 HR/9 in 28 relief appearances and 61 innings pitched. McEachern, 6’2″, 206, pitches out of a deceptive delivery and throws a fastball in the low-90′s with late life that shows an ability to be a swing-and-miss offering but is a pitch that McEachern struggles to both command and control. He also throws a curveball and changeup, with the curveball being more promising as McEachern throws it out of the same arm slot as his fastball with big 11-to-5 break, while his changeup has its moments but has never developed the consistency that the Rays would like to see. Between his deception being an advantage to right-hand hitters and a weakness to lefty hitters and the fact that his curveball is so much better than his changeup right now, McEachern’s strikeout to walk ratio was exponentially better against righties than lefties, coming in at 45-12 compared to just 23-19. You know the Rays like McEachern because they sent him to Bowling Green at just 19 years old in 2009, but this was his third year at the level- except for a 2010 stint at Short Season-A Hudson Valley- and he has to find a way to take the next step as a pitcher. It looks like McEachern’s future will be in relief, but his upside in that role remains high and the Rays hope something can click for him moving forward.

The story of this group was projectable talents with plenty of work still to do but also interesting potential that gives them a chance to be interesting prospects if they can polish up their arsenals and turn their raw ability and consistent performance as they move up the minor league ranks. They were the perfect way to end our evaluation of the Hot Rods, a team that had as much promise as any Rays affiliate but also an enigmatic element starting with their four drug suspensions and continuing with plenty of tools that remain works in progress. This could be a major boom-or-bust group for the Rays system moving forward, but with players like Josh Sale, Jake Hager, Todd Glaesmann, Parker Markel, Tyler Goeddel, and Felipe Rivero, we could also be looking back at this team as where it all started for major pieces of the Rays future. The Rays have to nervous about what’s going to happen these Hot Rods moving forward, but it can be a nervous excitement as they know the upside of this team is sky-high and with added maturity on and off the field, they just might get there.

For all our analysis on the Hot Rods and the Rays’ other minor league affiliates, check out our Minor League Affiliates Analysis page here at RCG.

The Rays minor leagues had a successful night on Wednesday, going 6-1 in their games. Here is this morning’s look around the action.

Durham Bulls 9, Columbus Clippers 7

The Clippers jumped out to an early lead against Cesar Ramos, going ahead 5-0 by the end of the third. Cord Phelps doubled in a run in the bottom of the first, and scored on a base hit by Russ Canzler. Phelps struck again in the third, driving in a run on another double, and coming around to score on a home run by Jared Goedert. The Bulls trimmed the lead to 5-2 in the fourth when Chris Gimenez hit a two run home run. Columbus put another run on the board in the bottom of the fifth, as Phelps continued his monster day with a solo home run. After another run in the seventh, the Clippers held a 7-2 lead. However, the Bulls came back in the top of the eighth, sending up 12 batters, and plating 7 runs. Gimenez’s second home run of the game, a three run shot, and Will Rhymes‘ two run home run highlighted the scoring. The Bulls held on to manage a 9-7 comeback win. Gimenez finished the day 2-4 with 2 home runs, 2 runs scored, and 5 RBI. Josh Lueke picked up the win, allowing 1 run on 2 hits in an inning of work. Phelps was 4-4 with 3 runs scored, 2 doubles, a home run, and 4 RBI in the loss.

Montgomery Biscuits 9, Huntsville Stars 6

The Biscuits jumped out to a fast lead, and held on to win their fourth straight game. With the bases loaded and two out, Kyeong Kang and Michael Sheridan walked, forcing in two runs. Brett Nommensen then hit a grand slam to right, as the Biscuits jumped out to a 6-0 lead. An RBI single in the top of the second chased Stars’ starter Ariel Pena from the game. The Stars got a run back in the bottom of the third, before rallying for four runs in the fourth, highlighted by Brock Kjeldgaard‘s three run home run. Mark Thomas homered in the sixth to give the Biscuits a bit more breathing room, and they tacked on another run in the eighth. Huntsville attempted to rally, putting up another run in the bottom of the ninth, but Montgomery was able to hang on to the 9-6 victory. Kyle Lobstein picked up the win, despite allowing 5 runs on 7 hits and 3 walks over 5 innings. Pena was roughed up by the Biscuits, giving up 7 runs on 5 hits and 3 walks in 1.2 innings of work. Omar Luna was 3-4 with a run scored.

Charlotte Stone Crabs 6, Bradenton Marauders 3 (10 innings)

The Stone Crabs powered their way to a 6-3 victory over the Marauders in ten innings Wednesday night. Charlotte jumped out to a 2-0 lead on the strength of solo home runs by Todd Glaesmann and Lucas Bailey. Bradenton got a run back in the bottom of the fifth, as Andy Vasquez made it to second base on an error, moved to third on a groundout, and scored on a sacrifice fly. The Marauders took the lead in the seventh, as Dan Grovat hit a two run, two out home run. Charlotte tied the game in the top of the eighth, scoring a run on a double play. With the game heading into the tenth inning, Philip Wunderlich hit a two out, three run home run, giving Charlotte a thrilling comeback victory. Jim Patterson picked up the win in relief, giving up 1 hit in 3 innings of work. Glaesmann and Bailey each had two hits in the win.

Bowling Green Hot Rods 4, Great Lakes Loons 1

The Loons got on the board first in the bottom of the fourth, as Darnell Sweeney reached on a bunt base hit. A failed pickoff attempt moved Sweeney to second, and he scored two groundouts later to give the Loons the early 1-0 lead. Bowling Green tied the score in the top of the fifth, as Joshua Sale homered to center. Sale scored again in the seventh on Juniel Querecuto‘s groundout. The Hot Rods loaded the bases in the top of the eighth, bringing Sale up once again. Again he delivered, hitting a two run single to left, as he factored in all four runs in the 4-1 victory. Trevor Shull and two relievers combined to two hit the Loons, as Shull gave up 1 unearned run on 2 hits, striking out 2 over 6 innings. Sale finished the day 2-3 with 2 runs scored, a home run, 3 RBI, and a stolen base.

Hudson Valley Renegades 2, Connecticut Tigers 0

Eduar Quinonez and two relievers combined on a two hit shutout, as the Renegades defeated the Tigers 2-0. The Renegades scored in the top of the fourth, as Luke Maile and Michael Williams walked. Both advanced on a wild pitch, with Maile scoring on a throwing error to give Hudson Valley a 1-0 lead. Walks factored into the next run in the top of the fifth, as Marty Gantt walked, and scored on Richie Shaffer‘s two out single. Meanwhile, Renegades pitching cruised through the Connecticut lineup, as the Tigers did not get a runner past second in the game. Quinonez picked up the win, giving up 1 hit while striking out 5 in 5 innings of work. Gantt and Shaffer each had three hits.

Burlington Royals 2, Princeton Rays 0

Each team picked up only three hits, But the Royals were able to push two runs across the plate, resulting in a 2-0 victory. Scoreless through the top of the sixth, Mark Threlkeld led off the bottom of the frame with a solo home run, snapping what to that point had been a perfect game for Rays pitching. The Royals tacked on another run in the seventh, as Bubba Starling doubled, and came around to score on two groundouts. The Rays best scoring opportunity came in the top of the first, with a runner on third and two out, but they were unable to push a run across. Alex Keudell picked up the loss, giving up a run on 2 hits and a walk over an inning of work. Kevin Brandt did not allow a baserunner, striking out 8 in his 5 innings of work. James Harris was 1-2 with a double and a walk.

GCL Rays 3, GCL Twins 2

The Rays scored twice in the top of the fourth, rallying with two out in the inning. Yoel Araujo tripled, and scored on a base hit by Armando Araiza. Araiza came around to score on a triple by Leopoldo Correa, giving the Rays a 2-0 lead. Joel Licon led off the bottom of the fourth with a walk, and scored on a triple by Bryan Haar. Haar scored on a sacrifice fly, tying the game at 2-2. The Rays took the lead again in the top of the eighth, as Johnny Eierman was hit by a pitch, and scored on Araujo’s double. Alex Mosier picked up the victory in relief, giving up 3 hits while striking out a batter in 3 innings of work. Araiza was 3-4 with a run scored and an RBI.

Durham Bulls 12, Columbus Clippers 2

The Bulls blew a close game open in the fifth en route to a 12-2 romp over the Columbus Clippers. Durham scored twice in the bottom of the first, as Chris Gimenez hit a two out, two run home run to put the Bulls ahead 2-0. The Clippers came back in the top of the fourth, tying the game on back to back home runs by Matt LaPorta and Russ Canzler. Brooks Conrad put the Bulls back on top in the bottom of the inning, leading off with a solo home run to make it a 3-2 game. The Bulls then scored six times in the bottom of the fifth, highlighted by a three run home run from Gimenez and a solo home run from Henry Wrigley. Durham tacked on three more runs in the bottom of the sixth, highlighted by Rich Thompson‘s two run triple. The Bulls shelled Columbus starter David Huff, tagging him for 9 runs on 8 hits and 3 walks over 4.2 innings. Matt Torra earned the win, allowing 2 runs on 7 hits with 1 strikeout in 7 innings. Gimenez was 2-5 with 2 home runs and 5 RBI.

Montgomery Biscuits 6, Jackson Generals 4

The Biscuits and the Generals battled all night, with Montgomery coming away with a hard fought 6-4 victory. Jackson took the lead in the top of the third, as Brad Miller homered to give the Generals a 2-0 lead. The Biscuits came back in the bottom of the fourth, as Mikie Mahtook had an RBI double, and Oscar Luna drove in a run on a single, with another run coming in on a throwing error. The Generals tied the game in the top of the sixth, as Jesus Sucre walked and scored on a Johermyn Chavez triple. Montgomery took the lead again in the bottom of the seventh, as Mark Thomas homered to put the Biscuits on top 4-3. Jackson tied the game again in the top of the eighth, as Denny Almonte scored on an error by Derek Dietrich. The Biscuits took the lead for good in the bottom of the inning, as Dietrich hit an RBI single, and came around to score on Oscar Luna’s double. Kirby Yates picked up the win, giving up 1 hit and 1 walk in 1.2 innings, striking out 5 batters. Mahtook went 3-4 with 2 runs scored, 2 doubles, and an RBI.

Charlotte Stone Crabs 3, Bradenton Marauders 0 (6 innings)

Enny Romero was perfect through five, and finished with a rain shortened one hit shutout of the Bradenton Marauders. The game was scoreless into the bottom of the fourth, when Steven Tinoco reached on an error. With two out, Riccio Torrez hit a two run home run, giving the Stone Crabs the lead. Charlotte tacked on another run in the bottom of the fifth, as Kevin Kiermaier tripled, and came around to score on a single by Philip Wunderlich. Romero lost his bid for perfection in the top of the sixth, giving up a double to Kirk Singer to lead off the inning. The game was halted in the middle of the sixth inning, before Charlotte was awarded the victory. Romero gave up only 1 hit and 1 walk, striking out 9 in his dominant 6 inning performance. Torrez was 2-2 with 1 double, 1 home run, and 2 RBI.

Bowling Green Hot Rods 10, South Bend Silver Hawks 2

The Hot Rods scored 8 times in the bottom of the second inning, and cruised to a 10-2 victory over the Silver Hawks. The eight run outburst was highlighted by a two run error by South Bend starter J.R. Bradley, and a two run triple by Drew Vettleson. Bowling Green sent 11 batters to the plate in the inning, tallying four singles, two doubles, a triple, a hit batter, and a sacrifice fly. South Bend got two runs back in the top of the third, as Tom Belza‘s triple drove in Raul Navarro and Chris Ellison. However, Juniel Querecuto hit a two out bases loaded single, driving in two to put the lead back to eight, providing the final runs in the 10-2 victory. Bradley picked up the loss, getting rocked for 8 runs (7 earned) on 8 hits in 1.1 innings of work. Trevor Shull picked up the win, giving up 2 runs on 6 hits and 2 walks, while striking out 4 over 6 innings. Ryan Brett was 3-5 with a run scored.

Hudson Valley Renegades 5, Vermont Lake Monsters 4 (10 innings)

The Renegades and the Lake Monsters battled in a back and forth affair, with Hudson Valley eventually coming away with a 5-4 win in ten innings. The game was scoreless until the top of the sixth, when Bruce Maxwell drove in the first run of the game, giving Vermont a 1-0 lead. The Renegades came back in the bottom of the inning, as Michael Williams tied the game on a two out single, and Leonardo Reginatto‘s two run single gave Hudson Valley a 3-1 lead. Vermont came back in the top of the seventh, using a double, a single, and an error to put together a three run inning, giving the Lake Monsters a 4-3 lead. Hudson Valley tied the game in the bottom of the eighth, as Justin O’Conner doubles, moved to third on a passed ball, and scored on a wild pitch. The game went to the tenth, when Charles Epperson led off the bottom of the inning with a triple. After two walks loaded the bases, O’Conner singled, driving in Epperson with the winning run. Ryan Garton picked up the win, giving up 1 hit and striking out 2 in his inning of relief. O’Conner and Williams each had 2 hits in the victory.

Bluefield Blue Jays 3, Princeton Rays 0

Tucker Jensen no-hit the Rays into the sixth inning, combining with two other pitchers to defeat Princeton 3-0. All three runs scored in the top of the sixth, as Christian Lopes doubled in the game’s first run. Lopes came around to score on Seth Conner‘s home run, giving the Blue Jays a 3-0 lead. Jensen, meanwhile, was masterful, not allowing a hit until Brandon Martin singled with one out in the bottom of the sixth. The Rays had back to back singles in the bottom of the seventh, chasing Jensen with runners on first and second with no outs. However, Colby Broussard got out of the jam without any damage. Tucker Jensen picked up the win, allowing 3 hits and striking out 1 in his 6+ innings of work. Martin was 2-4 for the Rays in the loss.

GCL Rays 7, GCL Red Sox 6

The Rays came from behind 3-2, and held on to a 7-6 victory over the Red Sox. The Rays struck first, with Bralin Jackson hitting a two out RBI single to give the Rays a 1-0 lead. The Rays tacked on another run in the fifth as Migeul Beltran was hit by a pitch, moved to second on a single, and scored two wild pitches. The Red Sox took the lead in the bottom of the inning, on two RBI singles and a wild pitch with two out. The Rays tied the game in the top of the sixth, as Johnny Eierman tripled, and scored on a wild pitch. Eierman gave the Rays the lead in the top of the seventh with an RBI single, and hit another RBI single in the top of the ninth. With the Rays ahead 7-3, the Red Sox mounted a comeback. Miguel Rodriguez hit a two run double, and came around to score on Ishea Conklin’s sacrifice fly. However, the Red Sox were kept in check the rest of the way, as the Rays escaped with a 7-6 victory. Matthew Ramsey picked up the win in relief, giving up 2 hits and striking out 1 in 2 innings. Eierman was 3-5 with 2 runs scored, a triple, and 2 RBIs.