Robbie Knopf: Last year, the Royals went 6-15 in April and everyone knew they were dead in the water from the start. This year, Kansas City is 13-q-, down in the AL Central by just half a game, and has certainly looked formidable so far. How exciting has it been to watch the Royals start like this and do you think this team is good enough to push for a postseason berth?

Mike Vamosi: As a life long Royals fan I’ve been tried to remain cautiously optimistic with this start and who they’ve beat. But you’re right compared to previous starts to the season. Being above .500 after this month is encouraging for sure especially given how much this fan base wants to win.

If the first month is any indication I think that Kansas City can push Detroit for the AL Central title which hopefully means the record is good enough to be in the wildcard conversation. The Royals have the pitching, it’s just can the offense come around to support that staff during the course of the season. Something that should help the team is that near midseason, Felipe Paulino and Danny Duffy will be back from the DL which will only help. And if they are still in the race I’d hope the front office will address the offense if it’s still scuffling along.

RK: James Shields has come into Kansas City and certainly been ace-caliber so far, managing a 3.09 ERA and a 21-9 strikeout to walk ratio in 35 IP, but he’s from alone is the Royals’ top four starters all have ERAs 3.20 or below. What are your thoughts on that? Is Shields a real ace? Has Ervin Santana returned to form? Can Davis continue to be effective in his return to the rotation?

MV: Shields has been an ace both on and off the field which I think has changed the clubhouse so far this season. Seeing the comments from Royals players and fans it’s been worth it so far. Other guys in the rotation have been equally as good which has resulted in the team’s record so far in 2013. Santana has been a pleasant surprise as he’s piling up the innings while not allowing opponents to hit the long ball on him. One of the local radio guys in KC has called Davis “Wildcard” but for the most part I think most fans have liked what they’ve especially the gem in Atlanta. Jeremy Guthrie also needs to be given credit as he’s been beyond surprising since coming over last summer.

RK: Much has been made of the development of Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas as a major reason why the Royals were going to improve significantly this season. But to begin the year, the two still have not hit a home run. How worried are you about them moving forward? Do you think they will right themselves by the time the season is through?

MV: I’d be lying if I told you the two are disappointing right now on offense in terms of power and production, but for the most part they continue to play good defense to keep them on the field. If the next few weeks and months they are at the same point, something has to be done even if that’s sending them to Omaha like the organization did for Alex Gordon and even Billy Butler. Long-term both should be good to go but in the present both are HUGE cogs for where this team wants to go.

RK: Plenty of people laughed when the Royals decided to tender Luke Hochevar a contract, but he’s been excellent to begin the season out of the bullpen, managing a 1.23 ERA and a 10-3 K-BB in 7.1 IP. Bruce Chen is another starter-turned-reliever who has been money, not allowing a run in 7.2 innings, striking out 8 while walking none. Hochevar and Chen won’t keep this up, but do you think they can be effective parts of the Royals bullpen?

MV: With Dayton Moore going out and revamping the rotation having Chen and Hoch in the ‘pen has worked out so far. I think both have deceiving stats given how little they’ve been needed with the starters being so good so far this year. I’ve got more trust in Chen during the season as he has been better statistically when he enters at the start of an inning over coming in with inheriting runners. We’ll see but the team is no doubt better with each coming in out of the bullpen.

RK: Jeff Francoeur is struggling again, managing just a .247/.282/.333 line (70 OPS+) in 85 PA’s to begin the year. Is it time to cut him? How much do you miss Wil Myers?

MV: Frenchy moves around the outfield like he’s got a piano on his back if the ball isn’t hit to him. Any other team would’ve got rid of him but GMDM (Dayton Moore) signed him out of high school in Atlanta so I think it’s sentimental. Yost also seems to love penciling him in over putting Jarrod Dyson in center and Lorenzo Cain in right to see if that work. But yes, each mistake brings up Wil Myers name but if he’s in the OF the rotation takes a hit as you’d still have Shields so yeah…

Thanks to Mike for answering my questions. Should be an exciting series between the Rays and Royals and we’ll have to see who will come out on top.

Steve Kinsella of Wahoo’s on First talked about Kazmir’s strong rehab appearance, tossing 5 innings allowing just an unearned run on 5 hits, striking out 5 while walking one, and showing off a strong low-90′s fastball and sharp breaking pitches. Rays fans, it’s time to get excited about Kazmir coming back, and with his debut not coming against the Rays, fans can root for him without qualms. The Rays are playing at 7:10 PM EST, just an hour after the 6:10 PM EST start of Kazmir’s game but for that one hour before the Rays game starts and maybe muted on your laptop while you watch the Rays game on TV, Rays fans with MLB.TV have to catch that game.

Speaking of former Rays, Wade Davis was excellent for the Kansas City Royals last night, going 7 innings of shutout baseball as the Royals beat fellow ex-Ray B.J. Upton and the Atlanta Braves 1-0. The great performance by the “other guy” acquired with James Shields in the Wil Myers trade inspired confidence in Royals fans that the return they were got for Myers and their other prospects was not as bad as they may have thought. Davis had a nasty cutter and used to befuddle the Braves the entire outing. It’s great to see Davis doing well with his new team, and while the Rays won’t miss him too much–they have a great rotation and Davis of course won’t be that good every time out–Rays fans can certainly root for him and Shields to have nice season with Kansas City this year.

While Kazmir and Davis have moved on for the Rays, David Price continues to attracts attention for the Rays thanks to his incredible pitching–and everything else. Price had plenty to say on Wednesday talking to Roger Mooney of the Tampa Tribune discussing the Rays’ offense, his pitching, and the bobblehead the Rays are set to give away of Price’s dog, Astro.

“We see them in the dugout, we hear them talking between innings, they’re not out there just giving up, and nobody else is either. We know these guys are putting in every bit of effort they can. It’s a rough time right now, but we’ll get through this. I feel like we hit this part in every season that I’ve been here, and not just one time a year, but multiple times. … So if we can get on our stride like we usually do I think we can be OK.”

“It does, absolutely,” he said. “I want to win the game, but most importantly I want the Rays to win the game whenever I’m out there on the mound. Whether I get the win or not, that doesn’t really affect me that much, but I want the organization to get that win. That’s something I take pride in.”

“That’s the way he sits. The jersey. He always has his tongue out like that,” Price said. “That’s one of the better-resembling bobbleheads I’ve ever seen.”
Astro, Price’s French bulldog, will attend the game. Throw out the first pitch?
“He can do something like that,” Price said.

Price’s future in Tampa Bay is in question with trade rumors swirling. However, Price is showing from the first two quotes that he’s 100% committed to his team and that he’s an excellent team player who cares about nothing more than everyone playing well and his team winning. The third quote? That’s just vintage Price demonstrating that he’s just an awesome guy. It will be cool for all the fans in attendance to get that Astro bobblehead, and even better that it has the David Price stamp of approval.

Last week, Chris Archer was sent down to the minor leagues. Bue despite that happening, Joe Maddon had this to say.

For sure, we believe Archer could be here right now.

So Chris Archer is ready for the major leagues, and nevertheless the Rays sent him down to minor league camp with three weeks left in camp. He never had a realistic chance to win a rotation spot. And even though the Rays saw firsthand just how talented he is in his six major league appearances in 2012, the Rays are sending him down with no return to the big leagues in sight and there’s a reasonable chance that he’ll spend most of 2013 back in the minor leagues. How does that make any sense? What are the Rays thinking?

The Rays have been lucky enough the past several years to have a rotation surplus, having six or seven quality major league pitchers without enough places to put them all. But the side-effect of that has been situations like Archer where pitchers who would be a key part of the rotation for 24 or 25 of the other teams in baseball are stuck at Triple-A simply waiting for a chance. It seems crazy- the Rays have always had offensive struggles, and why don’t they trade more of their pitchers for bats? But let’s see if the Rays are truly justified or not. This has been going on for years now and we have an actual sample size to look at, and let’s see how the Rays have done.

Jeff Niemann

Jeff Niemann was the 4th overall pick by the Devil Rays in 2004 and in 2007 he finally broke through, going 12-6 with a 3.98 ERA, an 8.5 K/9, a 3.2 BB/9, and a 0.9 HR/9 in 25 starts and 131 IP. Then he began 2008 in the Rays’ rotation and tossed 6 one-run innings with 5 strikeouts to earn a win in his major league debut. But after just one more start, Niemann was sent down to the minor leagues, making 24 starts at Triple-A before finally returning to the major leagues in September. How did he turn out? Niemann’s upside was reduced substantially by that point thanks to shoulder problems, but he’s been able to become basically that same pitcher he was at Triple-A when healthy, managing a 4.08 ERA and a 4.31 FIP in 544.1 innings pitched.

Wade Davis

Wade Davis was selected by the Rays two rounds after Niemann in 2004 and quickly emerged as a top prospect. The Rays were very careful with him, though, and it wasn’t until 2008 at age 22 that he reached Triple-A. That year, he went 13-8 with a 3.47 ERA, a 7.6 K/9, a 3.7 BB/9, and a 0.7 HR/9 in 28 starts and 160.2 innings pitched. He was especially impressive in 9 starts at Triple-A to end the year, going 4-2 with a 2.72 ERA, a 9.3 K/9, a 4.1 BB/9, and a 0.8 HR/9 in 53 IP. But the Rays kept him in Triple-A until September of 2008, even as he pitched to a 3.40 ERA and a 140-60 strikeout to walk ratio in 28 starts and 158.2 IP and their team collapsed in the second half. Davis looked electric in his 6 September starts, striking out 36 batters in 36.1 IP, and went 12-10 with a 4.07 ERA on his way to a 4th place finish in the 2010 Rookie of the Year voting and subsequently a contract extension, but he fell apart in 2011 before thriving in the bullpen in 2012. Then, of course, he was traded to the Kansas City Royals as part of the Wil Myers trade in December of 2012. So was keeping Davis in the minors the right move? It’s close but we have to stay no. Davis was blowing by Triple-A hitters but he was never able to adjust to big league pitching out of the rotation,  managing just a 1.74-to-1 strikeout to walk ratio in his two full seasons as a starter in 2010 and 2011 (with inconsistent secondary pitches being the primary culprit), and getting a few more starts in 2009 could have made all the difference.

Mitch Talbot

Davis was debatable, but Talbot was an unqualified disaster. Acquired by the Rays with Ben Zobrist in the Aubrey Huff trade, Talbot was lights-out in his second go-around at Triple-A in 2008 going 13-9 with a 3.86 ERA, a 7.9 K/9, a 2.0 BB/9, and a 0.5 HR/9 in 28 starts and 161 innings pitched. Nevertheless, he made just 3 appearances in the major leagues at the end of the year and began the next year back at Triple-A. He was pitching incredibly, managing a 3.69 ERA and a 67-18 strikeout to walk ratio in 68.1 innings pitched, when he went down with an elbow sprain, and he hasn’t been the same since. Maybe he would have gotten that same injury had he been in the major leagues, or maybe he could have been overexerting himself trying to prove the Rays that he belonged in the majors.

Jeremy Hellickson

Hellickson was the Rays’ 4th round pick in 2005 and dominated almost from the moment he joined the professional ranks. He was at his absolute finest as he cracked Triple-A for the first time in 200, going 9-2 with a 2.45 ERA, a 10.4 K/9, a 2.3 BB/9, and a 0.6 HR/9 in 20 starts (9 of which came at Triple-A) and 114 IP. It wasn’t until the end of 2010 that he finally reached the majors, though, and it took Matt Garza being traded for him to finally get a Rays rotation spot. He has put up a sparkly 3.02 ERA in the two years since, although his 241-131 strikeout to walk ratio and 1.1 HR/9 are all at least somewhat concerning for his ability to keep pitching that way moving forward. Hellickson has pitched very well, so you have to grade him as a success, but at the same time, it’s taken a while for Hellickson to adjust to the major leagues- only this past season did he finally get his curveball to become a more consistent weapon (which is the biggest reason why he has the ability to keep his ERA right where it is)- and considering he had nothing to prove at Triple-A, figuring out more things at the big league level could have only expedited his development.

Alex Torres

Torres, acquired in the Scott Kazmir trade, followed in Kazmir’s footsteps as an enigmatic lefty but one with electric stuff, and he impressed in his first crack at Triple-A in 2011, going 9-7 with a 3.08 ERA, a 9.6 K/9, a 5.1 BB/9, and a 0.4 HR/9 in 27 starts and 146.1 innings pitched. He had his problems with walks, but he also led the International League in strikeouts and pitched very well for the Rays in September, including 5 shutout innings with 5 strikeouts on September 24th versus the Blue Jays after Niemann was knocked out early to help the Rays to a huge win. But Torres didn’t even have a chance to make the Rays’ rotation in 2012 and that frustration had to play a part in his horrific 2012 as he went just 3-8 with a 6.72 ERA, a 12.1 K/9, a 7.5 BB/9, and a 0.7 HR/9 in 18 starts, 12 relief appearances, and 80.1 innings pitched. The good news is that Torres rebounded in a huge way at Winter Ball and still has a chance to be a 4th or 5th starter or at least a middle reliever in the major leagues, but not having any chance to make the major leagues had to have an impact on Torres and the Rays keeping him down was disastrous.

Looking at these five pitchers, the Rays’ strategy of keeping the Rays in the minor leagues has not worked very well. None of them gained anything by staying in the minor leagues, and at best they stayed strong and at worst the psychological anguish of being stuck in Triple-A got to them and they imploded spectacularly. All of these pitchers’ issues were cleary not only the fault of the Rays for keeping them in the minors. However, there’s a certain amount of development that has to happen at the major leagues, and the Rays haven’t let these pitchers get any of that.

One critical thing to note is that for the Rays’ most talented pitchers, they don’t follow this gameplan- David Price and Matt Moore were rushed at least a little bit to get to the majors, and that was clearly because the Rays recognize just how talented they are. But overall, this strategy isn’t one that appears to help in any way and only makes things worse, and the Rays need to find a happy medium between rushing their pitchers and leaving them in the minors too long. That’s a narrow-minded standpoint, though- that’s only taking into account the pictures involved and not all the other benefits that having surplus pitchers in the minors has for the Rays and also the fact that development of their pitching prospects isn’t the Rays’ primary focus- it’s winning games.

Just because a pitcher is big league ready doesn’t mean he’s even close to reaching his potential and you can look no further than David Price’s struggles in 2009 just before his second place finish in the Cy Young in 2010 to see that. The Rays would love to have all their pitching prospects continue their development at the major league level, but that’s impossible and they just have to do the best they can. And even if the prospects who are stranded in Triple-A are losing development time, they may very well be worth the trade-off for the injury insurance they provide to the Rays’ big league starting rotation. And then there’s also the matter of the money the Rays save by keeping their pitchers in the minors. Even if the net result for the pitching prospects may be negative, the overall result for the Rays has been at least a marginal gain. Going from one extreme in rushing pitchers to the other in keeping them at Triple-A may not be the best move for the Rays and they will look to fine-tune that moving forward. But despite all the evidence otherwise, the Rays keeping their pitchers in the minors longer has worked out for their team and although it’s frustrating, the Rays know what they’re doing.

Every pitcher is different, and in Chris Archer’s case he is known for great intangibles so he may fare better than most. Archer also needs work on his control and changeup, and getting more of that before he heads to the major leagues certainly wouldn’t hurt. It has to be frustrating for Archer heading back to the minor leagues, and the Rays’ best hope for him may have to be for him to just tread water and bide time until a rotation spot opens up for him. But between the insurance he will provide for their starting five, the struggles he’ll inevitably have once he arrives in the majors, and the money the Rays will save, it’s a move that makes sense and looks to be the best for the team moving forward. It seems ridiculous and maybe it is, but the Rays have found a formula that has helped their team, and sending Chris Archer to Triple-A is another attempt to do just that.