Triple-A International League: Norfolk Tides (BAL) 3, Durham Bulls 2 (7 innings- rain)

For the second straight day, the Bulls-Tides game was shortened by rain and lasted just 7 innings. This time, though, it was the Bulls that were on the wrong end of a 3-2 score–but a couple minutes later and it easily could have ended differently. The game was ludicrously called with the Bulls have two on, nobody out and one run already across in the 7th inning, so if this game goes nine innings, the Bulls very well could have won. J.D. Martin got the start for Durham and tossed a rain-assisted complete game, going 7 innings allowing 3 runs, 2 earned on 9 hits, striking out 7 while walking just 1. Martin is the “other guy” in a Bulls rotation laden with prospects, but he has pitched very well, going 5-2 with a 3.48 ERA and a 36-9 strikeout to walk ratio in 9 starts and 51.2 innings pitched. On the offensive side, Wil Myers had an encouraging game, going 1 for 3 with a walk and a run scored without striking out. Myers hasn’t gotten his power stroke going all season, but he’s showing improved plate discipline and you have to hope that he’s on the cusp of breaking out.

Double-A Southern League: Montgomery Biscuits 3, Huntsville Stars (MIL) 0

In 2012, Matt Moore had a 3.81 ERA, showing promise but plenty of inconsistency. Merrill Kelly is not nearly as talented as Moore, but the same can be said of his ERA and his performance. This game was one of the good ones. Kelly went 6.2 innings allowing no runs on 3 hits, striking out 5 while walking 2. In three of his nine appearances (eight starts), Kelly has a 2-0 record, a 0.90 ERA, and a 16-6 strikeout to walk ratio in 20 innings pitched. In the other six, he is just 1-4 with a 5.76 ERA and a 16-16 strikeout to walk ratio in 29.2 IP. Kelly’s low-90′s fastball is a solid pitch, but maybe it’s the effectiveness of his changeup and curveball that fluctuates, leading to his inconsistent results. C.J. Riefenhauser and Juan Sandoval tossed perfect ball in the final 2.1 innings to seal the 3-hitter. On the offensive side, the Biscuits didn’t get much themselves but went an outstanding 3 for 4 with runners in scoring position. Cameron Seitzer went 1 for 3 with a double and a hit-by-pitch and Mikie Mahtook and Todd Glaesmann had the other RBIs for Montgomery. Seitzer has been in an extended slump, but he’s now 5 of his last 14 (.357) and hopefully he’s getting himself back on track.

High-A Florida State League: Charlotte Stone Crabs 2, Fort Myers Miracle (MIN) 0

It wasn’t pretty but it somehow all worked out for Stone Crabs pitching as they stranded 8 hits and 6 walks on their way to victory despite striking out just 5. Felipe Rivero took the ball for Charlotte and was able to escape several jams, going 5.2 innings allowing no runs on 6 hits, striking out 4 while walking 3. Jake Partridge worked around 2 walks to pitch scoreless ball for the next 1.1 innings before Lenny Linsky got past 2 hits and a walk to nail down the save in the final 2 frames. In terms of the run support, Richie Shaffer went 2 for 4 with an RBI while Willie Argo, batting third now after hitting extremely well to begin the year, went 1 for 4 with 2 stolen bases and a run scored. Shaffer is doing great in his last ten games, going 15 for 44  (.341) as he’s beginning to erase his early-season struggles from his numbers.

Low-A Midwest League: Bowling Green Hot Rods 8, West Michigan Whitecaps (DET) 0 (7 innings)

Just seems like there is no way to stop Taylor Guerrieri. Guerrieri got the start and was dominant once again, going 6 innings allowing no runs on just 1 hit, striking out 3 while walking 1 and managing an 11-2 groundout to flyout ratio. Guerrieri tossed shutout 1-hit ball for the second straight outing, and while he wasn’t able to overpower hitters in this one, his command is just uncanny for Low-A and he is just able to force groundball after groundball. He threw just 59 pitches and could have easily gone the complete game, but the offense gave him plenty of run support and made sure this game was out of reach and the Hot Rods coaching staff decided to play it safe with the Rays’ prized right-handed pitching prospect. Leonardo Reginatto went 2 for 3 with a double, a stolen base, and 2 runs scored, Joey Rickard went 2 for 2 with a double, a walk, an RBI, and a run scored, and Tyler Goeddel and Luke Maile drove in 2 runs each.

Whitecaps 5, Hot Rods 1 (completion of suspended game)

This suspended game did not go nearly as well. Reinaldo Lopez has been surprisingly good all season for Bowling Green managing a 1.64 ERA in 33.1 IP entering Sunday, but this was simply not his game. Lopez went 5.1 innings (on May 10th) allowing 4 runs on 7 hits, striking out 3 while walking 2. He forced a ton of groundballs, managing a 9-2 groundout to flyout ratio, but his results were not nearly as good this time around. Marcus Jensen went the final 3.2 innings allowing 1 run on 5 hits, striking out 3 while walking none. In terms of the offense, there wasn’t much going on as Tommy Coyle went 1 for 4 with an RBI triple and Graden Goetzman went 1 for 3 with a run scored as they teamed to account for the only Bowling Green run.

Last year, there plenty of excuses made for Myers’ 140 strikeouts. The uptick in strikeouts came with a huge increase in power as he slammed 37 home runs in 591 plate appearances after hitting just 27 in 1053 plate appearances the previous three years. We heard that Myers struck out more because he was making a conscious effort to be more aggressive at the plate and hit for more power, and that he would be fine moving forward. But what about this year? So far in 2013, Myers’ Triple-A numbers are downright mediocre. He has just a .264/.359/.411 line with 5 doubles, 4 homers, and 23 RBI in 34 games and a 153 plate appearances. Scariest of all, though, is that he has struck out 45 times, 29.4% of his plate appearances, while walking just 19 times. His strikeout to walk ratio of 2.37-to-1 is nearly identical to his 2.30-to-1 mark from last year–this problem isn’t going away–and now he’s not hitting for any power. Is it time for serious concern? According to one evaluator, yes. Here’s what a scout told Jason Churchill of ESPN Insider:

One scout told me late last month that Myers’ propensity to swing and miss is his only weakness, but it may be enough to keep him from star status, or even a call-up this summer.

Is Wil Myers a bust at this point? Absolutely not. But doesn’t every day Myers struggles seem to make increasingly likely that he will fail to meet expectations? Will Wil Myers ever become that star outfielder the Rays thought they were getting or will he turn into a role player in the major leagues if anything at all?

Calm down. We’re not at that point yet. Myers has gotten off to a rough start to the year, and don’t read too much into an early-season slump. Most interestingly, though, has been his plate discipline over the early goings this year. In his first ten games of the season, Myers’ strikeout to walk ratio was an outstanding 11-9. In his first 18 games, it was still solid at 22-13. But in his last 16 games since then, he’s down to just 23-6. What’s happening? It seems pretty clear that Myers loses his plate discipline when he gets into a slump and that is what’s happening. We can have a chicken-and-the-egg discussion about whether Myers’ poor plate discipline caused his slump or vice versa, but we’ve seen before how his plate discipline looked just fine earlier in the season before his recent slump. When Myers gets back on track, he will walk more and his strikeout rate will get a lot lower. Let’s wait for Myers to break out and see what happens to his plate discipline then before we rush to judgement.

There’s other point that has to be touched on: just because Myers swings and misses too much, will that prevent him from being a star? Only one well-regarded MLB outfielder had a strikeout to walk ratio in a season like Myers did last year: Reds outfielder Jay Bruce. In 2007 between High-A, Double-A, and Triple-A, Bruce struck out 147 times while drawing 35 walks. The comparison actually goes a little farther as Bruce and Myers have very similar body types, both being 6’3″ and Bruce weighing 215 while Myers weighs 205. Both have great power, a little speed, and play solid defense. In his MLB career, Bruce has been somewhat enigmatic but has still hit for great power, hitting 20 or more home runs in each of his five years in the major leagues and 30 or more in the last two. He has a .256/.329/.478 line (112 OPS+) overall, but a .262/.340/.493 line (120 OPS+) from 2010 to 2012. And so far in 2013, Bruce’s numbers look a little bit like Myers’ as he has managed a .258/.306/.403 line with 12 doubles, 3 homers, and 23 RBI, striking out an NL-leading 52 times while walking 11 times. Overall, Jay Bruce is not a star, instead being a very good player who has his limitations, not hitting for much average or geting on base at a great clip, and basically being defined as a streaky home run hitter. Bruce’s level of performance seems like the 50th percentile for Myers, the point where he wouldn’t be a bust but would not be a bust but wouldn’t be a star either. At the end of the day, though, if Wil Myers turns into Jay Bruce, the Rays will not be infuriated–they will still end up with a pretty good players on their hands.

Bruce isn’t the only star outfielder in baseball in baseball who strikes out a little too much without good plate discipline. You have Josh Hamilton, Curtis Granderson, Matt Kemp, Alex Gordon, Carlos Gonzalez, and even Adam Jones, and then there’s a class of players just below them like Torii Hunter, Hunter Pence, and Andre Ethier. Even if strikeouts will be a flaw for Myers moving forward, as long as it doesn’t affect his power and he still hits for a good average, he could very well become a star nevertheless. The player who might be the interesting comp for Myers, though, could be Jason Bay.

Bay was another top prospect who was traded, heading from the Padres to the Pirates for Brian Giles, and Bay turned into the NL Rookie of the Year in 2004. That year, Bay managed a .282/.358/.550 line (132 OPS+) with 24 doubles, 26 homers, and 82 RBI, but his big flaw was that he struck out 129 times versus only 41 walks. In subsequent years, though, Bay’s plate discipline improved significantly as he walked 80 times four of the next five seasons, and Bay had himself an outstanding run as a major league player, managing a .280/.375/.519 line with an average of 31 doubles, 30 homers, 99 RBI, and 10 stolen bases per season from 2004 to 2009. If Myers became as good of a player as Bay used to be, the Rays would have no complaints at all. Bay’s example may be even important, though, because it shows how a player can begin his career without much plate discipline but develop it as he becomes more accustomed to the big league game. Maybe Myers could do the same.

Will Wil Myers become a star for the Rays in the coming years? There’s no way we can answer that question right now, but it’s certainly in the realm of possibility that he can. The easiest way for him to do that would be to cut down on the strikeouts significantly, but even if he improves only slightly he can still be an excellent player. Myers has more work to do in the minor leagues over the next few months as the Rays make sure that he’s entirely ready before bringing him to the major leagues. And strikeouts or not, there is every reason to believe that he will be worth the wait.

CLNSRadio: What do you expect and what are some of your expectations if you do get called up to the majors this year?

Wil Myers: I just want to go out and help the team win. That’s the biggest thing for me because that is what it is all about in the big leagues. I want to play the best I can.