Alex Keudell, 22, is the first pitcher we’ll discuss today, but he may have some chance to remain a starter. Keudell, the Rays’ 27th round draft pick in 2012, split time between starting and relieving for the P-Rays, starting primarily in the latter part of the season, and pitched well, going 3-4 with a 2.28 ERA, an 8.7 K/9, a 2.3 BB/9, and a 0.6 HR/9 in 6 starts, 10 relief appearances, and 43.2 IP. Per Minor League Central, his groundball rate was a solid 46.2%. Keudell, the University of Oregon’s this past season, stands out most because of a devastating 11-to-5 curveball that is his one true plus pitch. His other pitches are still in question. His fastball usually sits in the high-80′s, touching 90 MPH, and featuring late sink when Keudell is at his best. Considering Keudell is 6’3″, 205, the Rays hope that Keudell has a little projection remaining and can get his fastball consistently to the 90-91 MPH range and get the late action more often. His third pitch is a solid changeup. Keudell’s curveball is a weapon, but will he be able to establish his fastball enough to use it effectively? As a reliever, it seems strange to have a guy coming out of the bullpen starting off with breaking balls. That’s why it’s almost easier to see Keudell as a 4th or 5th starter type if he can improve his fastball to the point where it’s a second above-average pitch for him and maybe add a cutter. Keudell is an interesting case in the Rays system as he features the fastball-curveball-changeup combination that the Rays love, but he’s one of the few pitchers in the Rays’ system whose best pitch of those three is his curveball. Keudell’s ceiling doesn’t blow you away and he still has plenty of work still to do. But he has as good of a chance as any of these P-Rays players to make it to the big leagues someday in some capacity.

Jacob Faria, 19, is still a developing story in the Rays system. The Rays’ 10th round pick in 2011, Faria signed for $150,000, an above-slot bonus, but not nearly as much as you would expect for a high schooler with any prospect hype to sign for. Nevertheless, Faria has potential. A projectable 6’3″, 175, Faria went 3-4 with a 5.14 ERA in 2012 with a 7.3 K/9,  1.9 BB/9, and a 1.3 HR/9 in 5 starts, 8 relief appearances, and 42 IP. In terms of his stuff, Faria has absolutely nothing going on at this point other than solid control. His fastball is just in the high-80′s with solid movement, but he fails to get a downward plane on it and allows way too much hard contact, especially in the air. He also throws a curveball and a changeup, both of which he can throw for strikes and show flashes of good movement, but more advanced hitters won’t be fooled by simply the difference in velocity. Faria has to fill out before we can even start talking about him as a prospect. You hope that once he adds 25 or more pounds of muscle, hopefully his fastball velocity will get to the low-90′s at least, and then you can worry about his other pitches.

The Rays think that Brandt has a real chance to contribute at the big league level someday. (Credit: US PRESSWIRE)

Kevin Brandt, 22, is a 6’1″, 195 lefty who was drafted in the 18th round of the draft by the Rays this year. Brandt was great in his pro debut, going 2-2 with a 2.45 ERA, a 10.8 K/9, a 1.9 BB/9, and a 0.8 HR/9 in 4 starts, 8 relief appearances, and 36 IP for Princeton. Brandt dominated as a college pitcher should at Rookie ball. Brandt overpowered the younger hitters with a low-90′s fastball with good life, a sharp slider, and a solid changeup. He was completely unhittable against lefties, who went just 0 for 20 against him with 1 walk and 12 strikeouts, and although right-handers managed a .760 OPS, he did strike out 31 versus just 5 walks. Brandt won’t be nearly as dominant moving forward as he struggles with fastball command and his breaking stuff gets inconsistent, but he has a chance to move forward with a chance to be a big league lefty reliever, possibly one that can get both lefties and righties out if he can improve his changeup, but otherwise an effective situational lety. Brandt isn’t nearly exciting as his numbers this year, but he’s a player with a real chance to be a big league contributor someday.

Jon Weaver, 22, is a 6’3″, 215 right-hander who is another 2012 draftee, having been selected in the 21st round of this year’s draft. Weaver really struggled in his pro debut for Princeton, but there are some encouraging signs for him. Weaver went 0-6 with a 5.85 ERA, an 8.4 K/9, a 4.5 BB/9, and a 1.1 HR/9 in 3 starts, 16 relief appearances, and 32.1 IP. His groundball rate was a decent 45.1%. Weaver features an interesting repertoire. His fastball ranges in the low-90′s with late movement down and away from right-handed batters, and that was the offering he really relied on in his pro debut. He throws two other pitches worth a look, an 11-to-5 curveball that has flashed plus with tight break and a changeup that shows good sink, but he was unable to get a feel for them. With his fastball being his only consistently reliable offering, Weaver was in trouble when he couldn’t command it, especially against left-handed batters, since its movement took it right into the usual lefty power zone down-and-in if he missed too badly. Weaver was OK against right-handed batters in terms of peripheral stats, posting a 25-11 strikeout to walk ratio and a 48.7% groundball rate although they posted .303/.383/.485 line against him. Weaver doesn’t have the most electric arm, but if can get a handle on his secondary pitches, he has a chance to be a middle reliever in the big leagues. Weaver’s pro career got off to a tough start this season, but with refinement he has some potential.

Hugo Duarte was an unknown prospect entering this season and given his age, 22, and ERA this season, he probably still deserves to be. But the 6’1″, 169 right-hander who the Rays signed out of Venezuela back in 2006 managed some interesting underlying stats that are worth a glance. On the season, Duarte went 1-3 for the P-Rays with just an 8.53 ERA but an 8.2 K/9, a 2.8 BB/9, and a 0.6 HR/9 in 2 starts, 12 relief appearances, and 31.2 IP. His groundball rate was a horrific 32.3%. Duarte throws a fastball in the low-90′s with good life up in the zone- but when he loses command, he gets destroyed- while his secondary pitches, a curveball and a changeup, are a work in progress. Duarte is a long way from making an impact at A-ball, let alone the majors, but his strikeout, walk, and homer rates this year were a good sign, and we’ll have to see if he can continue to develop.

Joan Guerrero is left-handed and is a 6’2″, 170 lefty signed by the Rays out of the Dominican Republic back in 2007. Beyond that, I have absolutely no idea. He also was horrific this year for the P-Rays, going 1-0 with a 5.47 ERA, a 6.9 K/9, a 5.8 BB/9, and a 1.1 HR/9 in 1 starts, 13 relief appearances, and 24.2 IP. His groundball rate was just 30%. He was terrible against both lefties and righties. Guessing based on the numbers, he throws a halfway-decent fastball in the low-90′s and a bunch of secondary pitches he can’t control. Guerrero is a lefty. But let’s see some results or something before we seriously talk about him.

Willie Gabay was also absolutely horrendous in his pro debut in 2012. But the Rays feel that he has the ability to be a lot better and fast. Gabay, a 6’0″, 180 right-hander, was the Rays’ 15th round pick in 2012 and put up ugly numbers in his pro debut, going 2-1 with a 7.77 ERA, a 9.4 K/9, a 6.1 BB/9, and a 2.0 HR/9 in 1 starts, 14 relief appearances, and 22 IP. His groundball rate was a nice 46.9%, but he struggled against batters from both sides. Gabay throws a fastball that touches 94 MPH with natural late cutting action. The problem is that he has a ton of trouble controlling it and commanding it at this point, and that led to a ton of hard contact, but primarily he was beating himself. His secondary pitches, a late-breaking low-80′s slider and a changeup with some sink, flash plus when he make them look like strikes, and he was able to get a good amount of swing-and-misses against the inexperienced hitters he was facing, but they need a lot of improvement to look plus often enough to be consistently effective. Gabay’s stuff is awfully impressive and when something clicks, he could move quickly through the minor leagues. That certainly didn’t happen this year, but the Rays hope it will happen soon.

That’s where we’ll stop for right now. We see that these relievers may not have so much upside, but they have the ability to make an impact in the major leagues in less time than you would expect- if everything ever clicks for them. Their stuff is excellent and you just have to hope the control and everything else comes with time.

For the first 4 Parts of this series and our analysis on the GCL Rays as well, please check out our new Minor League Affiliates Analysis page here at RCG.

Triple-A International League: Syracuse Chiefs (WSN) 14, Durham Bulls 3

This game had to remind you of some of the Rays’ recent games. And given the nature of the Rays’ recent games, that’s not a good thing. In this game, Syracuse had 14 hits while Durham had 13. However, the Chiefs went 8 for 16 with runners in scoring position while the Bulls went just 2 for 9. Jim Paduch had a catastrophe of a start, allowing 12 runs, 10 earned, on 11 hits in 5 innings. On offense, every Bull had a hit, including a 3 for 5 day with a 2-run homer for Henry Wrigley, a 2 for 4 days for Reid Brignac and a 2 for 5 day for Matt Mangini. Tim Beckham went 1 for 4 with an RBI double.

Double-A Southern League: Montgomery Biscuits 8, Jacksonville Suns (MIA) 3

A coule of relatively unheralded players had big days as the Biscuits rolled. Jake Thompson, who has had a struggle of a season, had a nice start, going 6.1 innings allowing 3 runs on 7 hits, 2 of which were solo home runs, striking out 5 while walking 3. But he posted a 10-1 groundout to flyout ratio, so hopefully he’s making progress. On offense, Ryan Garko had a 3-run shot and Greg Sexton had a 2-run shot while Mark Thomas went 3 for 4. A mid-level prospect, Tyler Bortnick, went 1 for 4 with his 20th stolen base of the season. And the loosely-defined top prospects, Hak-Ju Lee and Ty Morrison, both had nice games as well. Lee went 2 for 4 with a double, a triple, a walk, and a run scored, while Morrison went 2 for 3 with a double, 2 walks, an RBI, and a run scored.

High-A Florida State League: Charlotte Stone Crabs 7, Fort Myers Miracle (MIN) 5

Sorry, no triple-header for the Stone Crabs today. Just a win. Victor Mateo had a run of the 4′s, allowing 4 runs on 4 hits, striking out 4, walking 4, and allowing 4 groundouts. He tossed 5 innings and forced 5 flyouts, so there’s a couple 5′s. He got the win in the game thanks to some nice offense. Luke Bailey and Stephen Tinoco each went 2 for 4 with a double and 2 RBI and Derek Dietrich, Robby Price, and Christopher Murrill all had multiple hits as well. Theron Geith, Jim Patterson, and Chris Rearick combined for 4 innings of one-run relief, with Rearick recording his 15th save of the season.

Low-A Midwest League: Lansing Lugnuts (TOR) 8, Bowling Green Hot Rods 3

One horrific inning was exactly the difference in this one. Parker Markel allowed just 1 hit in the first 2 innings before completely imploding in the third inning. Allowing 5 runs on 6 hits. The Hot Rods couldn’t muster enough offense to compensate. Drew Vettleson went 2 for 4 with his 7th homer of the season and 10th stolen base, Alejandro Torres went 3 for 4 with a double and an RBI, and Todd Glaesmann and Juniel Querecuto each went 2 for 4 with a run scored. Josh Sale and Tyler Goeddel went a combined 0 for 5 with 2 walks, one by each.

Short Season-A New York-Penn League; Hudson Valley Renegades 9, Staten Island Yankees 3

Jeff Ames was sharp and Ryan Dunn had the best day of his young career as the Renegades blew out the Yankees. Ames went 5 innings, allowing an unearned run on 3 hits, striking out 5 while walking 1 and posting a 4-2 groundout to flyout ratio. Dunn went 3 for 4 with a double, 4 RBI, and 2 runs scored. Justin O’Conner also went 2 for 5 with a double and a run scored from the two-hole. Tommy Coyle (1 for 3), Michael Williams (1 for 4 with a triple), and Leonardo Reginatto (0 for 2 with 2 RBI) had the other RBIs.

Advanced Rookie Appalachian League: Princeton Rays 9, Bristol White Sox 4

A lot of people came out of this game happy. Bruedlin Suero allowed 4 runs on 8 hits in 5 innings in his start, but he did strike out 3 while walking 1 and post a 7-1 groundout to flyout ratio. Willie Gabay followed with 2 shutout relief innings for his first professional win. Randy Davis and Jon Weaver each struck out 2 in a hitless relief appearance, although Davis walked 3. And then there was the offense. Granden Goetzman went 2 for 5 with a double, 3 stolen bases, 2 RBI, and 2 runs scored. Brandon Martin went just 1 for 5 but swiped 2 more bases, John Alexander went 3 for 4 with a double, a walk, and 3 RBI, and Oscar Hernandez went 3 for 5 with a double, an RBI, and 2 runs scored.

Jackson has a ways to go, but the Rays really like his potential. (Credit: BeRecruited)

Rookie Gulf Coast League: Game 1: GCL Rays 4, GCL Twins 3 (7 innings)

This game alone was the pro debuts of four Rays 2012 draft picks: outfielders 5th rounder Bralin Jackson (a power-speed threat), 11th rounder Clayton Henning (a raw athlete, but with tons of potential), lefty Dayne Quist from the 28th round (underwhelming stuff but superb control), and right-hander Luke Goodgion from the 33rd round (great stuff, needs work with control). For more on those four, please see here. But how were their debuts? Carlos Cedeno showed some positive and not-so-positive signs in his second start of the season, going 4 innings allowing 3 runs on 6 hits, but striking out 4 while walking 1 and posting a 4-0 groundout to flyout ratio. The next three pitchers, Quist, Goodgion, and non-drafted free agent signee Alex Moshier, all tossed perfect innings with a strikeout each. On offense, Armando Araiza and Leopoldo Correa each had a hit and an RBI, and the other GCL Rays runs scored on errors. How about Jackson and Henning? Jackson, unfortunately, went 0 for 4, while Henning went 1 for 3 with a walk and a caught stealing (he’s fast but needs a lot of work stealing bases- see his profile at the lin above). Adderly Rosa also had a double and Yoel Araujo had a triple for their lone hits in the game.

Game 2: GCL Twins 2, GCL Rays 1 (7 innings)

Not exactly fun getting 4-hit. Stepan Havlicek got the start for the GCL Rays and wasn’t so great, allowing 2 runs on 4 hits in 3.2 innings, striking out 4 while walking 2. Nicholas Sawyer (40th round in 2012), Oscar Armenta, and lefty Jordan Harrison (25th round in 2012), did combine for 3.2 shutout relief innings. 2 of the 4 hits came from Ben Kline, who went 2 for 3, and Johnny Eierman went 1 for 2 with a walk and a stolen base.

27 of the Rays’ 40 picks were college players, 67.5%, the percentage of any draft in Rays history. The Rays selected 35 college players in 2011, but they had 20 more picks in that draft compared to 2012 because of all their supplemental picks as compensation for departed free agents and because the draft was shortened from 50 to 40 rounds in the new Collective Bargaining Agreement. 35 divided by 60 is 58.3%. And the number of college players that the Rays selected trails only 2011 in their history. Where are the Rays doing?

The fact that the players are coming out of college obscures the fact that the Rays still drafted a lot of them (12 of 27) for upside. And secondly,  as we touched upon after Day 2, this will allow the Rays to sign as many picks as possible. The Rays drafted just 7 high school players and they’re going to be able to do everything they can to sign all 7. For their 6 junior college selections, some are easier signs than others, but they’ll look to sign as many as possible of them as well. What the Rays did in this draft was maximize their efficiency. College upside picks, especially in the later rounds, can be signed on the cheap but still come with the potential for big reward. And signing those picks cheaply allows the Rays to focus their energies on the tougher high school and junior college players and the funds to potentially get most of them signed. There’s next to no chance that the Rays sign all 40 of their picks. But there’s a real chance they could sign 36 or 37 the way they allotted they picks. Let’s go pick by pick with quick thoughts on the player being selected where they were selected. We’ll give a grade to each pick as well (which has to do with the players based on their draft slots, not necessarily on the players’ abilities or their abilities compared to one another). For actual scouting information on the players, please click the links on each players name.

1st Round: 3B Richie Shaffer- Nice value pick as he could have gone earlier. Gives the Rays legitimate power and a relatively safe bet to make the big leagues as productive corner player. Nothing flashy, but good value. Grade: A-

2nd Round: SS/CF Spencer Edwards- High school shortstop who will likely move to the outfield but was announced as a shortstop. Nice upside as 5-tool prospect, although hitting is most questionable tool. Grade: A

3rd Round: CF Alvin Toles - JC product is speedster in center with 5-tool talent as well, although once again hitting is a little questionable. Grade: A

4th Round: RHP Nolan Gannon- Projectable HS righty with a nice sinker, shows flashes with 12-to-6 curve. Nice upside but will be a project. Grade: B+

5th Round: OF Braylin Jackson- HS outfielder with more hit tool questions, but nice power/speed potential. Grade: B+

6th Round: RHP Damion Carroll- HS arm with mid-90′s velocity, everything else in question. Grade: B

7th Round: CF Marty Gantt- Senior is a great story and has solid tools across the board. Definite potential to be big league contributor. Grade: A-

8th Round: C Luke Maile- Junior has power and plate discipline, too many defensive questions. Grade: B-

9th Round: CF Joey Rickard- Junior can run and play defense. Upside of a 4th outfielder. Grade: B-

10th Round: LHP Sean Bierman- 5th-year senior has injury questions, shifty but not great stuff. Money-saving pick. Grade: C+

11th Round: CF Clayton Henning- High school football wide receiver is extremely raw but shows flashes of 4 tools. Grade: B+

12th Round: C Taylor Hawkins- High school catcher with big-time present power. Hit tool in question but tools defensively as well. Grade: A

13th Round: RHP Dylan Floro- Junior’s stuff regressed since being drafted by Rays out of high school. If restored, has nice upside. Grade: B

14th Round: LHP Chris Kirsch- JC lefty has four pitches including plus fastball and curve that flashes plus. Control is an issue. Grade: A

15th Round: RHP Willie Gabay- Hard throwing JC relief prospect who could move fast. Nice sinker. Grade: B+

16th Round: 2B/SS Tommy Coyle- Junior with solid tools all around with some speed. Utility player upside. Grade: B

17th Round: SS Ryan Dunn- Junior is low for shortstop but fluid actions and surprising power. Valuable if can stay at short. Grade: A-

18th Round: LHP Kevin Brandt- Senior lefty with unimpressive fastball but solid secondary pitches. LOOGY potential. Grade: B

19th Round: 1B Miguel Beltran- Senior has big power potential but looks out-of-shape and other tools are questionable. Grade: C+

20th Round: RHP R.J. Davis- Senior who touches triple-digits with fastball but command and secondary pitch issues. Grade: B+

21st Round: RHP Jon Weaver- Senior reliever is not overpowering but all-around solid arsenal. Middle relief potential. Grade: B

22nd Round: CF Willie Argo- Senior slipped in college but has power-speed upside. Could be a steal at this spot. Grade: A+

23rd Round: INF Reid Redman- 5th-year senior provides sparkling defense at third and second base, great utility profile. Grade: B+

24th Round: 3B Daniel Duran- Senior with nice hit tool but little power and no defensive position. Grade: B-

25th Round: LHP Jordan Harrison- Junior has questionable arsenal other than occasional flashes. Grade: C

26th Round: RHP Jason Wilson- Senior has nice fastball, solid curve, poor control. Shows potential as 4th-5th starter or back-end bullpen. Grade: A-

27th Round: RHP Alex Keudell- Senior features great curve but questionable fastball. Good command. Grade: B

28th Round: LHP Dayne Quist- Little senior lefty with little stuff but great command. Middle relief potential. Grade: B-

29th Round: P/OF Keaton Steele- JC pick has potential as bullpen arm, outfielder. The Rays are going to have fun with him. Grade: A-

30th Round: C Michael Williams- Senior plays solid defense, may hit a little. Grade: B

31st Round: C/OF Taylor Ward- HS pick does not have catcher skill-set, speedy with solid swing. Doubt he stays at catcher long-term. Grade: B-

32nd Round: SS Ben Kline- 5th-year senior has nice defensive tools and rock-solid ability all-around. Potential big league starting SS. Grade: A

33rd Round: LHP Luke Goodgion- Junior has good size, stuff, erratic control. Bullpen potential. Grade: B

34th Round: RHP Ryan Garton- Little senior righty but excellent change and solid all-around arsenal with some projection. Sleeper potential. Grade: A-

35th Round: RHP Kris Carlson- Senior with nasty stuff, fastball hits mid 90′s and great movement on slider, but horrific control. Grade: B+

36th Round: SS Bret McAfee- JC pick selected by Rays for second year in a row. Injury prone, but great defense with some offensive tools. Grade: B+

37th Round: RHP Rob Finneran- 5th-year senior with bulldog mentality and solid stuff. Best pitcher in the history of Bentley University. Grade: B

s38th Round: C Chad Nacapoy- 5th-year senior shows solid defense but needs work and questionable offense. Grade: B-

39th Round: C Geoff Rowan- Senior has untapped tools both offensively and defensively. Definite upside. Grade: B+

40th Round: RHP Nick Sawyer- JC pick has nice fastball-curveball combination but terrible control. Grade: B+

Looking at the grades, they’re mostly within the A’s and B+’s (over half of them are). I certainly didn’t like every pick, but I do really like this draft class. The Rays got several outstanding values from the college guys and some nice upside from the high school and JC ranks. There’s a lot of risk here. Most of these players they have great upside but come with significant questions as well. Most of them will not pan out. But this isn’t a boom or bust draft. There are just so many upside players that a handful of them will have to pan out and the Rays could really end up with several quality big leaguers and a bunch of other minor contributors from this draft class. It was strange that the Rays drafted so many college players, but they chose the best ones they could find and ones with often considerable potential and that’s all that really matters. And then there’s the factor that since the Rays drafted so many college players, it should help them get nearly everybody signed. This is a very interesting draft class by the Rays and it’s going to be exciting to see the Rays get these guys signed and have them start their pro careers, and we’ll have to see how they develop.