Keep Up the Scoring, Rays!

By Robbie Knopf

In their last three games since getting perfect-gamed, the Rays have scored 29 runs, an average of nearly 10 per game. It’s always easier to win when you score runs like crazy. But for the Rays especially, scoring 7 or more runs like they have the past three games makes them a virtual lock to win.

When was the last time the Rays lost while scoring 7 or more runs? You have to go back to September 14th, 2010. That’s 299 regular season games ago. Since then, the Rays have gone a ridiculous 63-0 whenever they put a minimum of 7 runs on the scoreboard. How impressive is that? Every other team in the American League and all but 2 in baseball have lost at least one game while scoring 7 or more runs in 2012 alone. The only two teams that have not lost while scoring 7 or more runs in 2012, the Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers, both have streaks that are barely half the Rays’ length: 168 and 167 games respectively. In terms of wins, the Braves have won 36 straight games when scoring 7 or more while the Dodgers have won 33. The Rays blow away the competition with their success when scoring 7 runs or more. It’s pretty obvious why- the Rays’ incredible pitching. It drives us crazy when the Rays’ get a great outing from one of their starters but lose 2-1 or 1-0. But when the Rays offense gives their pitchers some breathing room, they’re as good as it gets at holding the opposition down and refusing to let easy wins slip away.


More related stats:

Last time the Rays have lost while scoring:

11 runs: August 7th, 2010

10 runs: July 20th, 2010

9 runs: June 11th, 2010

8 runs: September 18th, 2008

7 runs: September 14th, 2010

All time, the Rays are 57-0 when scoring 12 or more runs.

All-time record when scoring:

19 runs: 2-0 (0-0 since 2008)

17 runs: 1-0 (0-0 since 2008)

16 runs: 1-0 (1-0 since 2008)

15 runs: 11-0 (5-0 since 2008)

14 runs: 11-0 (4-0 sine 2008)

13 runs: 14-0 (7-0 since 2008)

12 runs: 17-0 (9-0 since 2008)

11 runs: 40-5 (11-1 since 2008)

10 runs: 53-6 (27-2 since 2008)

9 runs: 65-13 (24-1 since 2008)

8 runs: 130-25 (47-2 since 2008)

7 runs: 124-40 (49-7 since 2008)

Winning Percentages by Run Total, Devil Rays (1998-2007) vs. Rays (2008-Present):

19 runs: 1.000 vs. N/A

17 runs: 1.000 vs. N/A

16 runs: N/A vs. 1.000

15 runs: 1.000 vs. 1.000

14 runs: 1.000 vs. 1.000

13 runs: 1.000 vs. 1.000

12 runs: 1.000 vs. 1.000

11 runs: .879 vs. .917

10 runs: .867 vs. .931

9 runs: .788 vs. 960

8 runs: .783 vs. .959

7 runs: .676 vs. 875

It’s pretty staggering how much the Rays’ winning percentage when scoring 7 or more runs has improved since the name change, and it’s certainly no coincidence. If the Devil Rays had done anywhere near as well as the Rays, the stats we quoted above could be regarded as chance variation, but this is a clear illustration that there is something really going on here.

That’s it for now, but I’ll have to look into where the Rays’ streaks of 299 games without losing when scoring 7 runs and 63 wins while scoring 7 runs rank in baseball history. One thing we do know is that even when the streaks do come to an end, the Rays better score some runs. With their pitching as good as it is, if the Rays can push runs across they have the potential to go far.