Baseball Prospectus released their annual PECOTA projections and they have the Tampa Bay Rays winning the second Wildcard!
Rylan Stiles broke down the projected standings and shared his thoughts on the projection system:
"The Tampa Bay Rays are looking at 86 wins according to PECOTA projections. Many find projections, especially of the PECOTA variety irrelevant, pointless, and stupid. Others, live and die by the PECOTA projections, and refuse to move off a narrative surrounding a team due to projections. I am somewhere in the middle. I do not hate the PECOTA projections, but I take them for what they are. Arbitrary measurements of teams that are based on a few handpicked categories that cannot quantify all that goes into a baseball game, team, and season."
As expected Pham is projected to lead the team with the 20 homers. They are also high on Brandon Lowe and project him to hit 16 bombs.
As for Baseball Prospectus War (WARP), Kevin Kiermaier is projected to be the Rays most valuable offensive player (2.8). Blake Snell is projected 3.3 WARP and Morton is projected to be worth 2.5 WARP.