The Tampa Bay Rays nab the second wild card spot, and 86 wins in latest PECOTA projections.
The Tampa Bay Rays are looking at 86 wins according to PECOTA projections. Many find projections, especially of the PECOTA variety irrelevant, pointless, and stupid. Others, live and die by the PECOTA projections, and refuse to move off a narrative surrounding a team due to projections.
I am somewhere in the middle. I do not hate the PECOTA projections, but I take them for what they are. Arbitrary measurements of teams that are based on a few handpicked categories that cannot quantify all that goes into a baseball game, team, and season.
The PECOTA projections are only slightly better than using a simulated MLB The Show season to project what will happen in this upcoming season. Something that we will do on this site once the new edition of the game comes out so be on the lookout for that.
Generally, PECOTA has a problem finding the formula for small-market team projections. In 2014 and 15, the projection system underestimated the Kansas City Royals who went to the World Series in both years.
Here is a look at this years A.L. PECOTA projections.
Obviously, the rankings will change once Manny Machado and Bryce Harper finally ink their future contracts, and even guys like Mike Moustakas and the likes can move the PECOTA needle.
In this scenario, The Yankees, Indians, and Astros win their respective divisions. The Redsox and Rays fill out the two wild card spots and away we go.
The Yankees win total is too low, as are the Redsox and Rays.
If these were over under’s, I would take the over on:
New York Yankees
Tampa Bay Rays
and that is pretty well it as the rosters sit right now.
The Rays were a 90-win ball club a year ago and had a ton of bad luck early on in the season that surely will not happen again just based on the odds. Possibly adding Brent Honeywell, and Jose De Leon mixed in with a possible Yandy Diaz power surge, and Charlie Morton in the mix and the 90 win baby Rays got even better.
While the Tampa Bay Rays may not eclipse 90 wins this year, they surely will get over the 86 win mark if even relatively healthy for most of the year. Let us know your projections for the Rays win total in the comments below, and on Twitter!