Tampa Bay Rays’ Nick Anderson: The Next Superstar Reliever

With the Tampa Bay Rays trading away last season’s team-leader in saves, who will they turn to in 2020?

The Tampa Bay Rays recently traded presumptive closer, Emilio Pagan, for an outfield insurance policy in Manuel Margot. The Rays finished first in all of baseball in relief ERA with a 3.66 earned run average. They obviously have immense confidence in their group to trade a player like Pagan.

Pagan finished last season with a 2.31 ERA and a 0.83 WHIP to go along with his 20 saves. Pagan struck out 96 batters in 70.0 innings. He was a workhorse reliever for the Rays.

Tampa Bay believes in the rest of the bulls in the pen. They still have three pitchers with closing experience in Diego Castillo, Jose Alvarado, and Nick Anderson.

Castillo earned eight saves for the Rays last season. In his two years with the Rays, he has posted a 130 ERA+.

Jose Alvarado was one of the elite lefties in the game two seasons ago. He posted a 2.39 ERA in 64.0 innings for the Rays. He opened the 2019 season as the closer for the Rays. By the end of April, he had four saves and a 1.64 ERA. Injuries and family issues essentially ruined the rest of his season.

Alvarado posted a 5.79 ERA in May and only pitched in 7.2 innings for the rest of the season. His family issues appear to be resolved as they have made their way from Venezuela and are in Florida with Jose right now. He also appears to be healthy and has the Rays excited with what they’ve seen so far.

Josh Hader Comparison

Of Relief pitchers with more than 60 innings pitched in 2019, Hader and Anderson were the top two in K%, second and third in xFIP, and first and third in Ks per nine.

Here’s how Anderson compared to Hader in 2019. 

• BB%: Hader (6.9%) / Anderson (6.1%)
• BB/9: Hader (2.4) / Anderson (2.5)
• K%: Hader (47.8%) / Anderson (41.7%)
• K/9: Hader (16.4) / Anderson (15.2)
• HR/9: Hader (1.8) / Anderson (1.1)
• xFIP: Hader (2.36) / Anderson (2.44)

The Rays have plenty of extremely capable relievers loaded in their bullpen, but Nick Anderson could be on the verge of Josh Hader-esque superstardom.

When he first arrived to the Rays last season, he struck out 17 batters in his first seven innings while allowing zero earned runs. In case you didn’t do the math, 17 of his first 21 outs were by way of the strikeout.

There were three guys in all of baseball that struck out 40% or more of the batters they faced (min. 60 IP) and Nick Anderson was one of them. Another one was Josh Hader. The thing that separated Hader and Anderson from the third player (Matt Barnes) was the ability to keep the walks to a minimum while the Ks hit the ceiling. Hader and Anderson had walk-rates of about 50% of what Barnes posted.

Anderson should have the first crack at closing duties for the Rays, although the Rays do not shy away from playing matchups. They have plenty of capable arms to entrust Anderson to other crucial moments in the game. Josh Hader became one of the biggest names in baseball out of the bullpen before he was a closer.

No matter where the Rays decide to deploy Nick Anderson, if he continues to put up these types of numbers he will be representing the Rays on a national stage at the All-Star Game as the American League version of Josh Hader.

Who do you think will lead the Rays in saves in 2020?