Tampa Bay Rays: Post-Draft Pitching Prospect Rankings

The Tampa Bay Rays selected 17-year-old phenom Nick Bitsko with the first pick on Wednesday night. Where does he fit into their stacked prospect list?

The Tampa Bay Rays separated their farm system from the pack on Wednesday. They came into the draft as the top organization in the league and walked out impressing everyone with their savvy.

Fans and analysts may have questioned the Boston Red Sox when they reached deep down the rankings to select Nick Yorke with the 17th selection, but they tend not to question the Rays. The only line of optimistic logic for the Red Sox taking Fangraphs’ 165th ranked player that early was “Chaim Bloom came from the Rays so, this will probably work.” 

So, the Rays did what other teams only wished they had the courage to do. They took next year’s number one draft pick this year. Nick Bitsko is a soon-to-be 18-year-old who is already 6-4, 225 pounds and can hit 98.5 mph on the radar gun. Scouts already rate his fastball and slider as above major-league average pitches. He’s 17-years-old folks!

Maybe I’m being too upbeat, but I think his upside is Cy Young. Not in an old-timey, rocking chair wind up, throw 700 innings and strike out 23 batters “Cy Young.” Like the best pitcher in the league compared to his peers in modern times.

That’s just a best-case scenario. Let’s see where he ranks within the Rays pitching-rich farm system right now.

We are going to take a look at the current rankings and at the end, we’ll tell you where Nick Bitsko slots into this fantastic herd of hurlers. 

According to MLB.com here are the top five pitchers in the system. All five of them are in the Rays top ten prospects right now.

1. Brendan McKay, LHP
2. Shane Baz, RHP
3. Brent Honeywell, RHP
4. Shane McClanahan, LHP
5. Joe Ryan, RHP

Tampa Bay Rays – Brent Honeywell

Oh, Brent Honeywell. He went as the 72nd pick in the 2014 draft. In 2018, Honeywell was ready to go from one of the games top prospects to one of the best young pitchers in the major leagues. Instead, he had Tommy John surgery before the season. Then, last season he broke his elbow while rehabbing from TJ surgery.

Recently, it was announced that Honeywell had undergone another procedure on his elbow. He remains upbeat and ranked third on the Rays prospect list. MLB.com’s list hasn’t been updated since it was announced that he needed another surgery.

Honeywell hasn’t pitched since 2017 and likely won’t pitch again until 2021 at age 26. He still has all the talent in the world, but time is ticking on the 6-2 righty.

Unfortunately for Honeywell, the story nowadays is about his injuries and how he hasn’t pitched since 2017.

Let’s not forget that he’s got a five-pitch repertoire that includes a plus fastball, an above-average slider, a plus changeup, and even a plus screwball. He has more stuff than a hoarder with a pole barn.

Here’s how Honeywell grades out:

• Fastball: 60
• Slider: 55
• Changeup: 60
• Screwball: 60
• Curveball: 45
• Control: 55
• Overall: 55

Tampa Bay Rays – Shane McClanahan

McClanahan finished second in the country with 14.2 Ks per nine innings with South Florida, he was taken 31st overall in the 2018 draft by Tampa Bay.

McClanahan blasted through three levels of the minors last season. He is currently projected as a No. 3 starter in the big leagues, if not a big bullpen arm.

Here’s how he grades out:

• Fastball: 65
• Changeup: 50
• Slider: 55
• Control: 45
• Overall: 50

Tampa Bay Rays – Joe Ryan

A seventh-round pick in 2018, he outdid McClanahan in 2019 as he also made his way to Double-A in his first full season, but he walked away with the Rays’ Minor League Pitcher of the Year Awards. He finished with a 1.96 ERA last season while striking out 183 batters in just 123.2 innings.

Ryan cracked Baseball America’s top 100 in 2020 in response to his phenomenal 2019.

Here’s how he grades out:

• Fastball: 60
• Curveball: 50
• Changeup: 45
• Slider: 55
• Cutter: 50
• Control: 55
• Overall: 50

Tampa Bay Rays – Nick Bitsko

We all know about his physical development and his power at this point. It’s impressive that he’s developed so quickly, but will he continue to progress? Let’s take a look at how he grades out right now.

• Fastball: 60
• Changeup: 50
• Curveball: 60
• Control 55
• Overall: 55

These numbers are absolutely insane for a kid who has never even pitched as a high school sophomore. Scouts are saying he owns a plus fastball, plus curveball, and above-average control compared to major leaguers. Basically, scouts think he could be a functional pitcher in the big leagues despite never pitching beyond the 10th grade in high school. I’m having trouble wrapping my mind around this.

Based on scouts ratings, grades, and projections, here is our Rays Colored Glasses revised pitching prospect rankings.

Tampa Bay Rays – Revised Pitching Rankings

1. Brendan McKay (60) – McKay has the lethal combination of stuff and control that makes him the easy choice as the top pitching prospect.
2. Shane Baz – 55 overall with the highest rated fastball in the system. If he continues to make progress with his control, the sky is the limit for Baz.
3. Nick Bitsko – To be 17 and have no grades below major-league average sets the bar pretty high for the future. He doesn’t have the arsenal or track record that Honeywell has and they both grade out as an overall 55. We put Bitsko ahead of Honeywell just because of the upside and Honeywell’s injury history.
4. Brent Honeywell – I feel terrible for Honeywell. I hope he can bounce back from all of these injuries. Bitsko may not have pitched past his sophomore year in high school but Honeywell hasn’t pitched since the 2017 season and probably won’t see game action until 2021.
5. Shane McClanahan
6. Joe Ryan

Where would you rate Bitsko? Let us know in the comments or on our social media accounts.