Projecting the Rays Opening Day roster ahead of spring training

Catchers

Mike Zunino

After being a team detriment over the last two seasons carrying a 49 OPS+ and bWAR line below replacement level, Mike Zunino is back in Tampa as the veteran option at catcher. Possibly more disheartening than his action at the plate is what he does behind it where, according to Baseball Savant, Zunino ranks 54th of 62 qualifying catchers at framing non-swing pitches for strikes.

We’ll have to see if Zunino’s massive raw power profile finally proves itself in 2021, but the last two campaigns have inspired little confidence.

Francisco Mejia

Francisco Mejia, who was once one of the best catching prospects in the game, latches onto Tampa Bay as a result of the Blake Snell trade. Likely the first player to make an impact among the four-player haul, Mejia will need to show more consistency than he has thus far in order to dethrone Zunino.

In parts and pieces of major league action dating back to 2017, Mejia has an OPS+ below 80 and despite the Rays obvious positional need he has been prognosticated for a move to a corner infield or outfield position. That doesn’t stop the switch hitter from having the occasional web gem, however.

Infield

Ji-Man Choi

The head of the Choi boy fan club, Ji-Man Choi is locked into the starting spot at first. Following a trade with that saw positional rival Nate Lowe flipped to the Texas Rangers for a handful of prospects, Choi is left as the main starting option to start the season.

Ji-Man struggled statistically in 2020 likely in part as a result of injuries as well as a complicated travel situation coming from South Korea to start the delayed regular season. That said, Choi still profiles at least as a league average hitter if not better for 2021.

Brandon Lowe

The Tampa Bay Rays best player through the balance of the 2020 regular season, Brandon Lowe struggled greatly in the postseason but still profiles as the team’s best bat for 2021. After leading the team in all major batting categories including a 152 OPS+ and finishing 8th in the AL MVP vote, Lowe carried an OBP under .200 and struck out nearly 37% of the time.

Small sample sizes and a month long road trip certainly don’t help Lowe’s optics, but he is a strong bounce back candidate for 2021 and no Rays batter has been better over the last two years.

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Willy Adames

Despite some notable trade rumors, the Rays will return their starting shortstop and voice of the team for the coming season. Willy Adames will look to continue momentum after a career year where he carried a strong .259/.332/.481 slash line.

With super prospect Wander Franco among others lurking in the farm system, 2021 will be an important year for Adames with respect to his future on this team.

Yandy Diaz

While his 2020 performance came with a dip in exit velocity, Yandy Diaz has plenty of power to spare. Accompanying his decline in EV and slugging percentage was a career high OPS+ of 131 and the first “positive” BB:K ratio of his career as he walked 4.4% more than he struck out.

Though not his most outwardly obvious asset, Yandy’s eye will keep him in for more than enough innings and at bats split between first, third, and DH.

Joey Wendle

Joey Wendle is, quite simply, a get-the-job-done player. Whether it is platooning all over the field or getting a clutch slap single or gap shot when needed, Joey gets things done for the Rays. After a down year in 2019 where he was limited to 75 games due to injury, Wendle was a constant contributor for the Rays in 2020 where he matched a career high .435 slugging percentage.

One of the troubles with Wendle, however, is fulling understanding his role with the team. With Yandy, Willy, and the prospect bounty taking a hold of the infield, it’s hard to envision where Wendle can consistently slot in on this team. All this said, manager Kevin Cash is known to operate lineup cards in mysterious ways and ultimately this might just be part of the Joey Wendle act.

Mike Brosseau

In 2020, Mike Brosseau went from quality bench bat to Tampa Bay folk hero with two swings of the bat. The former undrafted prospect mashed in limited action in 2020 carrying a monstrous 158 OPS+ while slashing .302/.378/.558.

In the midst of a logjam in the infield, Brosseau’s performance should dictate more innings and plate appearances in 2021.

Outfield

Randy Arozarena

In the simplest terms, no one has ever had a postseason quite like Randy Arozarena did in 2020. While his accomplishments, such as an MLB postseason record 10 homers and 29 hits, hardly need to be repeated, Arozarena projects as the Rays best bat for 2021 while still clocking in as high as fourth on Fangraphs top prospects list.

Randy is poised to continue his breakout party as a full-time major leaguer this season.

Kevin Kiermaier

Still arguably the best defensive player in Major League Baseball, Rays pitchers can sleep soundly at night knowing Kevin Kiermaier will be patrolling center field again this season. After a couple of outright poor seasons at the plate in 2018 and 2019, KK managed to stabilize as a near league average bat while ranking 5th among all MLB center fielders in Outs Above Average.

Manuel Margot

Another excellent fielder with an inclination for clutch postseason play, Manuel Margot lasted longer than his fellow former Padre Hunter Renfroe. Margot managed to finish in the 82nd percentile in OAA while tying a career high in OPS+. In the playoffs, Margot boasted an .895 OPS and hit more homers (5) in those 19 games than he managed in 47 regular season games (1).

Assuming Margot can put together a more complete campaign in the regular season, he profiles as an everyday corner outfielder with a plus glove.

Austin Meadows

After lighting it up in 2019, Austin Meadows‘ season was largely derailed by a core injury that seemed to impact his game throughout the playoffs as well. After a .922 OPS output in 2019 that led to an All-Star appearance in his first full major league season, Meadows behaved like a below average hitter in the pandemic shortened season.

In the playoffs, he was all but shutout in the ALCS and World Series going a combined 5-38 without a homer or RBI to his name. With the benefit of a full offseason of rest and recovery as well as a proper spring training, there’s hope that Meadows regains his sensational form.

Yoshi Tsutsugo

In the offseason ahead of the 2020 season, the Rays made an unusually aggressive move in acquiring a foreign free agent. Despite working against common Tampa Bay strategy of buy low sell high, the team signed Yoshi Tsutsugo to a two-year, $12 million contract with an eye towards tapping into the incredible power numbers he proved in Japan.

Through one season, a year in which Yoshi struck out 27% of the time but achieved a moderately respectable 97 OPS+, the returns aren’t awfully impressive. That said, as hectic as 2020 was for any player it’s hard to imagine someone with a road much tougher than Yoshi’s. Here’s to hoping a more normal season boosts his play to at least near-NPB numbers.

Starters

Tyler Glasnow

The lone gunman from Tampa Bay’s three-headed rotation in the playoffs, Tyler Glasnow will now bear the full weight of being the Rays ace. Between his 2019 and 2020 performances, however, theres certainly room for variability in his expectations. After being, more or less, a runaway Cy Young favorite through his first eight starts, his 2019 season was derailed by injury. Pitching, conveniently enough, nearly the same number of innings in both years, Glasnow saw his ERA rise predictably from 1.78 in 2019 to 4.08 in 2020.

Leading into 2021, it is reasonable to be concerned about his capacity to handle a full ace workload even for a Rays team that generally limits innings for its starters. Glasnow holds a career high 111.2 innings from 2018 while former teammates Blake Snell and Charlie Morton have hit 180.2 and 194.2 innings respectively while holding the ace role on the team. This said, Glasnow has an…interesting pitch that he is working on this offseason.

Ryan Yarbrough

Commonly relied upon as a bulk pitcher more than a traditional starter, Ryan Yarbrough will certainly get his chance to legitimately crack the rotation in 2021. Always a reliable innings eater, Yarbrough will look to likely top his career high of 147.1 innings pitched and retain his commonly great FIP numbers from years past.

Rich Hill

The Rays latest late career pickup, Rich Hill brings with him 16 years of sub 3.80 ERA pitching and as a lefty will help matchup lineups a lot like Blake Snell used to. Additionally, Hill carries a curveball that breaks far harder than Snell’s while comparing favorably as well to Charlie Morton’s bender. Despite a fastball that now sits high 80’s to low 90’s, Hill gets plenty of put aways on his heater thanks to a high spin rate.

Though he is a virtual guarantee to run into injury issues as he has his entire career, when Hill hits the mound he gets the job done.

Michael Wacha

One of two major reclamation projects in the rotation, it is still to be seen exactly what Michael Wacha can bring to the Rays. At times Wacha has been electric, he made an All-Star Game in his 3rd season in St. Louis, but in recent years he’s largely been flat and his skyrocketing FIP tells the story. Over the first five seasons of his career, Wacha carried a sensational 3.61 FIP but has sunk to 5.08 over the last three campaigns.

The Rays have worked greater miracles with lesser arms but Wacha certainly could be a challenge.

Chris Archer

Recovering from surgery to address Thoracic Outlet Syndrome, Chris Archer didn’t pitch an inning in 2020 and will now be looking to bounce back with his former team. In his first tour with the team, Archer was dominant carrying a 3.69 ERA sporting three different campaigns with an ERA under 3.33 as well as three years with over 200 innings pitched.

Since going to Pittsburgh in a wildly ill-fated trade with the Pirates, Archer’s ERA skyrocketed to 4.92 and his 119.2 innings in 2019 were the least he tallied in a full season his entire career. If there were ever a team to find his fountain of youth it would be the Rays and all reports out of camp seem to be indicating a happy, healthy Archer.

Bullpen

Nick Anderson

The de facto high leverage man and also unfortunately the goat (not g.o.a.t.) of game six of the World Series, Nick Anderson has been largely spectacularly for the Rays. Since coming over from Miami in a trade in 2019, Anderson has carried an otherworldly 1.43 ERA and 1.50 FIP despite pitching in about as many high leverage situations as anyone in baseball.

Despite being the man notorious for replacing Blake Snell in the World Series, Anderson should continue to mow through the league in 2021.

Diego Castillo

Quietly one of the more sensational relievers in the league, Diego Castillo has also largely managed to beat the odds. Owning a 4.53 FIP in 2020, Castillo still managed to finish with a 1.66 ERA second only to Anderson amongst Rays relievers. He even managed to continue this dominance in the postseason holding a 1.64 ERA against some of the best offenses in the game.

Ryan Thompson

Ryan Thompson stood out in his debut season not just because of his unique arm angle but his stellar start to the year. Through August, Thompson held at a 3.18 ERA and delivered in tight spots as shown by his average leverage index of 1.22 (1.0 is average).

Pete Fairbanks

Its unlikely that any Rays pitcher took as far a leap forward in 2020 as Pete Fairbanks. Acquired in the Nick Solak trade with the Rangers in 2019, Fairbanks struggled greatly in the run up to the Rays postseason berth with a gruesome 6.86 ERA and got tagged for a 5.07 FIP.

In 2020, however, it was a different story. Pete managed to turn in a 2.70 ERA in the regular season as well as clutch postseason performances including the final four outs of game seven of the ALCS against the Astros.

Collin McHugh

A new addition to the “stable,” Collin McHugh can bring both length and situational relief to the Rays back end. McHugh racked up 150+ innings from 2014-2016 and notched a top-10 Cy Young finish in 2015 where he sported a 19-7 record with a quality 3.89 ERA.

After opting out of the 2020 season despite signing a contract in Boston, McHugh is a cheaply acquired arm with a track record who can provide both in single inning as well as multi-inning relief appearances.

Josh Fleming

Getting the nod for the Opening Day roster spot over fellow bulk pitcher Trevor Richards, it is the 2.78 ERA across five starts and seven total appearances that gives Josh Fleming the edge. Despite a less than stellar showing in the postseason, Fleming is one of many young arms including Brent Honeywell, Brendan McKay, and Shane McClanahan that will get plenty of run this season.

Chaz Roe

Recently brought back on a one-year, $1.275 million deal, Chaz Roe will be back to spraying and praying with his notorious slider. According to Baseball Savant, Roe catches swings and misses on the legendary pitch nearly 32% of the time but is also prone to walks sitting in the 4th percentile of all pitchers in BB%.

Cody Reed

The remaining lefty specialist in the bullpen, Cody Reed only pitched 2.2 innings with the Rays in 2020 but clearly the team has faith in his abilities as they let fellow southpaws Aaron Loup and Jose Alvarado leave in the offseason.

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