Blue Jays' Vlad Guerrero Jr. extension ensures he'll torture Rays for years to come

The Toronto Blue Jays had missed out on Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto, and many other big-name free agents.

So, instead of sitting around and moping about how they don't have nearly as much star-level talent as they could, they decided to switch gears and focus on internal extensions.

And they got one done, despite much hemming and hawing from both sides about the money and length of the deal, as star first baseman Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. signed a 15-year, $500 million extension to remain in Toronto.

There are many facets of this deal for the Rays' division rivals, many different ways of viewing this deal.

First, it's important to focus on the actual on-paper value of Vladdy and what he brings to the table.

He's an excellent hitter when he's not hitting the ball on the ground so much; if you look at his launch angle sweet spot rates, they pretty much coincide perfectly with his elite, MVP-level seasons ('21 and '24) versus his not-bad seasons ('22 and '23).

Yandy Diaz is a similar comparison, as Diaz has struggled to find that sweet spot of hitting the ball hard, mantaining a decent approach, but not just hitting hard grounders every at-bat.

Vladdy is very similar, as his quality of contact metrics have been excellent throughout his career, and his plate discipline marks are always passable, but it's just finding the right launch angle to suit his needs.

His wRC+. marks were over 160 in the seasons where he was able to get a bit more lift on the ball, and his overall offensive production was 132 and 118 in the seasons where his LA sweet spot percentages were lower.

On the defensive side of the ball his impact is always going to be limited due to his position being a low-value spot, but even then he's still a pretty bad first baseman, with OAA of -10 and -13 over the past 2 seasons.

He's also worse than average as a baserunner, totaling -14.7 baserunning runs over his career.

So all of his value is tied up in his bat, which can be viewed as a good thing because he's always been an above-average-to-elite hitter.

Plus, durability has never been an issue, as Guerrero, Jr. has played pretty darn close to 100% of his team's games since 2020, speaking to a player that takes care of his body and has avoided major injuries over the years.

The trouble is that aging curve that comes for everyone; Vladdy, Jr. is 26 and will be 40 when this contract expires.

That's a long time to be paying a bat-first first baseman who doesn't run the bases well before he's even turned 30.

So, that's the on-the-field aspect of it, but there's a softer element that isn't considered when just looking at his on-field production.

First of all, Vladdy is one of the most recognizable players in the game, somewhat due to his father's status as an all-time great, but also due to the high-energy level that Guerrero, Jr. plays with when he's on the field.

He also is playing for a team that has missed so much on free agents, that letting a star player that has been in the organization for literally a decade would've been tough to explain to fans.

Add in a very weak next few position player free agent classes and the Blue Jays had every incentive to keep Guerrero, Jr. around, even if they had to likely overpay a bit to get him to stick around.

So, the Rays might be fortunate in the long-term with the Blue Jays committing this kind of money to a player like Guerrero, Jr., but it's better for both the game and the Blue Jays that this happened, as the alternative wouldn't have been very fun.