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3 Options Tampa Bay Has with Tyler Glasnow

By Josh Jacobs |
Baltimore Orioles v Tampa Bay Rays
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Since being acquired by the Tampa Bay Rays in 2018, starting pitcher Tyler Glasnow has emerged as one of the elite arms in all of baseball. Standing at 6'8, Glasnow boasts an elite fastball with swing and miss off speed stuff, which made him the ace of the Rays staff and a Cy Young canidate in 2021.

Glasnow's career ERA with the Rays sits at 3.10 and has elite WHIP and SO/9 metrics at 1.00 and 12.2 respectively. 2021 was when he truly burst onto the scene on a national level, as his ERA sat at 2.66 over 88 innings of work with 123 strikeouts and WHIP of 0.93. Glasnow then suffered elbow soreness on June 8th which eventually lead to Tommy John surgery, sidelining him for the rest of the 2021 season as well as 2022.

It is no secret that the Rays tend to move off their star talent early in order to maximize the value they can get in return, but the situation Glasnow is in could make for an interesting storyline for the rest of 2022 and the 2023 season. Pitchers come back from Tommy John with more success than ever before, but there is still no guarantee that the Rays right hander would return to his ace form. There has also been a bit of variance in his performance year to year as well as more injury history. Glasnow's first 200 innings of his career were more league average at best, and then showed his ace level stuff in an injury shortened season in 2019. Upon returning in 2020, Glasnow's ERA sat at 4.08 but has an elite strikeout per 9 of 14.3.

The Rays talked Glasnow deals at the 2021 trade deadline, but nothing ended up coming to fruition. Glasnow has indicated that he would love to remain in Tampa Bay, so it appears that there is at least some level of interest in a potential extension. Then again, the Rays may decide he is more valuable as a trade asset, making this an interesting crossroads for both the club and player.

Here are three potential ways the club could handle the situation with their injured star.

Option 1: Extend Tyler Glasnow

The thought of extending a star talent seems like a no-brainer for most teams that are perennial contenders, unless you're the Rays. Tampa Bay tends to tighten their payroll as much as possible, deal away talent in need of new deals, and roll the dice on their young guys. It has worked year in and year out, but there are always exceptions to any rule. Just look at shortstop Wander Franco.

Franco signed a team-record extension with the club this last offseason of 11 years, $182 million with incentives and options to bump that to 12 years, $223 million. Money was clearly left on the table for Franco, but the player and club were willing to bend on their best interests to make a deal work right now. A similar situation could work out with Glasnow.

It is hard to speculate exact numbers, but an extension in the realm of 4 years, $60 million could be a good foundation of a deal for both sides. Glasnow would receive some security over the next few years and peace of mind coming off of a major injury, while the club would be able to retain one of the highest ceiling pitchers in baseball to have a rotation that features the likes of Shane McClanahan, Shane Baz, Luis Patino, and others. The three headed monster of Glasnow, McClanahan, and Baz could easily be the best trio of starters in baseball over the length of Glasnow's deal. Having this kind of depth in their rotation as well allows the club to take a risk on Glasnow, knowing that underperformance or injury can be covered internally.

It may be a tough sell to the club to invest that much of their payroll into a player coming off of injury at a position of strength, and Glasnow may rather roll the dice over the next few seasons to see if he can hit it big in free agency. This kind of extension does appear extremely beneficial for both sides though and would be a wise option of the Rays want to dominate with their pitching going forward.

Option 2: Trade Tyler Glasnow before the 2023 Season

In December 2020, the Tampa Bay Rays did what few contenders would ever due, trade a Cy Young award winning in his prime in the middle of a very affordable contract, sending Blake Snell to the Padres in return for four prospects. Looking at the case of Tyler Glasnow, the club may take a very similar route once again.

The Snell trade is not a one for one replica for a Glasnow trade considering he did win a Cy Young, was not coming off of a major injury, and was not going to be a free agent, but it does show the club is willing to trade major talent rather than resigning. Part of the isuse with this scenario though is that Glasnow's trade value will be significantly less than it would have been pre-injury. Would the Rays receive enough value for a Glasnow trade at the deadline or this offseason to be worth it?

If Tampa Bay is worried about Glasnow's recovery process or like their current options, they may decide to flip his contract for farm system depth or a win now piece, but it would be hard to expect anything of significance coming back Tampa's way.

Option 3: Treat Tyler Glasnow Like a Rental in 2023

If Tampa Bay cannot agree to an extension with Glasnow and do not find a deal they would like to pull the trigger on before the 2023 season, treating him like a rental for his last year of team control could be a great option.

Assuming the Rays are contenders again in 2023, seeing if Glasnow can return to ace form or close to it to add to their wealth of pitching would give them another crack at the elusive World Series trophy they have been searching for.

If the Rays fall out of playoff contention and Glasnow is back to form, they will be able to pawn him off to the highest bidder. If Tampa is in the thick of the race, then they'll have a dominate rotation come October and will watch the right hander walk in the offseason.

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The new CBA has gotten rid of the qualifying offer and draft compensation for star players that leave their team in free agency, so Glasnow would be walking for nothing if he is allowed to hit free agency. With how deep the Rays farm system is currently, this team could afford to let him walk for nothing at the expense of keeping him around for one last run.

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