Rays make late deadline addition with trade for former Cardinals top prospect

In a last minute move, the Tampa Bay Rays and St. Louis Cardinals agreed on a deal that sends outfielder Dylan Carlson to St. Petersburg in exchange for right-handed pitcher Shawn Armstrong.

Armstrong leaves the Rays in his third season with the team and was posting his worst numbers in terms of ERA and WHIP, at 5.40 and 1.61 respectively. He also gave up 56 hits in 46.2 innings of work during the 2024 season.

Carlson was drafted in 2016 and had been a highly-regarded prospect in the Cardinals' system, ranking at one point as the 13th overall prospect in MLB Pipeline's top 100 in 2021. He was also the Cardinals' No. 1 prospect in 2020 as well as 2021.

He ended up playing his first game in a St. Louis uniform in 2020. Then, in 2021 and 2022, he played a combined 277 games, recording nearly 1,000 at-bats during that stretch. That was when everyone saw what Carlson could provide.

Can Dylan Carlson recapture form with Tampa Bay Rays?

His best season came in 2021 when his value as a prospect was at its highest. He posted a .266 batting average and 18 home runs. His OPS of .780 and 65 RBI also showed the raw potential in his bat.

That same kind of hitting has not been present in 2024. Carlson's season started with a shoulder injury that knocked him out until the beginning of May. Since then, he has played in 59 games and has posted a .198 average with 11 RBI.

One of the more notable developments Carlson will have to undergo with the Rays is figuring out how to boost his on-base percentage. It has never gone above .350 in his MLB career and is currently .275 during this season. But Tampa Bay is a place full of small ball talent, and they'll likely find ways for Carlson to improve his whiff and chase rates and to draw more walks.

Carlson is a work-in-progress, but many of the other Tampa Bay trade additions in 2024 are as well. He has great upside with sound defense and hitting ability that can get to the next level in the team's lab. They also got him for a pitcher who is a free agent next season. It's hard to argue with the move.