Rays vs. Marlins prediction and odds for Wednesday, August 29 (Back Eflin)

The Rays are 16-8 in August and are 2.5 games behind the Orioles in the AL East. Last time out Zach Eflin went six strong against the Yankees, allowing just two runs with 11 stirkeouts.

Tampa Bay Rays starting pitcher Zach Eflin (24)
Tampa Bay Rays starting pitcher Zach Eflin (24) / Kim Klement Neitzel-USA TODAY Sports

Last night the Tampa Bay Rays took an 11-2 win over the Miami Marlins on the road in south Florida. The 81-52 Rays looked like the team from April with Josh Lowe, Randy Arozarena, and Isaac Paredes all homering in the blowout. Miami is now at .500, 66-66.

For the second of this two-game set, the Rays will hand the ball to Zach Eflin, their ace with Shane McClanahan injured. Eflin is 13-8 in 25 starts with a 3.55 ERA and will be opposed by lefty Jesus Luzardo. Luzardo is 9-8 with a 3.77 ERA in his 26 starts this season.

The Rays are road favorites in this one and we’ll get into the odds and my pick, but first check out this great promo in the DraftKings Sportsbook. 

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Rays vs. Marlins odds, run line and total

Rays vs. Marlins prediction and pick

The Tampa Bay Rays were one of the best teams in baseball hitting left-handed pitching early this year. They were just one of the best hitting teams in the league period, but the summer has changed things. For the year they are now No. 8 in OPS against lefties and in August they have a .735 OPS which ranks 16th. That is a bounce back from June and July when they were dead last with a .601 OPS against lefties. 

A lot of that bounce back in August has to do with Randy Arozarena who has a 1.010 OPS against left-handers this month. Arozarena has hit four home runs and four doubles this month overall and has driven in 12 runs. 

I think August is too small of a sample size and their numbers are buoyed against left-handers this month by a certain shortstop who is no longer with the team. I’m going to still fade Tampa Bay against lefties, especially when the lefty is Jesus Luzardo. 

Zach Eflin has a 3.13 FIP this year and is coming off a good start. I have full faith that he’ll produce another quality start in this one and it’ll be a pitcher’s duel in Miami. I’ll take the under even with a bit of a low total and coming off an 11 run day for the Rays yesterday. 

Follow all Josh Yourish’s bets HERE

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change