Tampa Bay Rays: 3 Hybrid Mock Trades to Consider

The Tampa Bay Rays are at an important crossroads. Coming off disappointing series losses in Kansas City and Baltimore, they've been leapfrogged in the wild card standings by the Toronto Blue Jays and now hold the final playoff seed in the AL. On top of that, it was just announced that Kevin Kiermaier and Mike Zunino will miss the rest of the season with injuries. The injury bug they've been grappling with all season is not going away, and it's far from a guarantee that they will maintain their playoff position.

Luckily, the trade deadline is approaching and they have a golden opportunity to restock the numerous empty slots in the clubhouse. In the past, the Rays have taken a "hybrid" approach to the trade deadline, where they act as both a buyer and a seller, even when they're competing. Take 2021, for example: they sent two quality prospects to acquire Nelson Cruz and took a flyer on Jordan Luplow, but also shipped established, big-league pitchers Rich Hill and Diego Castillo to other fellow contenders.

Another instance is a trade they pulled off with their cross-state counterparts in 2019. They acquired closer Nick Anderson from Miami, and to get him, they sent outfield prospect Jesus Sanchez, who eventually became the Marlins' starting center fielder. However, they also included Ryne Stanek in the deal, who was a key part of their bullpen at the time.

Their financial situation has made this hybrid approach a common course of action in prior deadlines, and this year appears to be no different. The Rays have not entered a trade deadline this far out of first place in their division since 2018, so playing both sides in the event that they don't make the postseason has more logical merit than ever. Here are 3 mock trades that the Tampa Bay Rays could consider in 2022 that fit the "hybrid" criteria.

Mock Trade #1
To TB: RHP Jose Quintana, RHP Duane Underwood Jr.
To PIT: RHP Ryan Thompson, LHP Ian Seymour

Position players were an area of need before the Kiermaier and Zunino injuries, so that has only been magnified. However, the Rays have dealt with injuries on the pitching side too despite the fact that run prevention has been a strength. Jose Quintana might be the best value play on the market this year in terms of starting pitching, and he's currently riding a brilliant comeback season. His current ERA of 3.70 is his lowest in a full season since 2016, when he was still logging 200 innings in his days with the White Sox. As well, his FIP (3.27) hasn't been this low in 7 years.

Quintana would slot in perfectly at the back end of the rotation, and acquiring him would necessitate a demotion of Ryan Yarborough, either to the minors or off the 40-man roster entirely. Unfortunately, Yarborough hasn't been his best self for a while, and a 5.61 ERA with 5.4 K/9 isn't going to cut it on a contending team no matter what role he's in. This would result in a rotation of McClanahan-Kluber-Rasmussen-Quintana-Springs, which looks tough to beat on paper.

Duane Underwood Jr. is one of those relief pitchers that seems as though he was born to be a Ray, with a high ERA but outstanding peripherals in a limited sample. When healthy this season, he has pitched to a 4.00 ERA in 27 innings, which may cause his 2.39 FIP and 3.38 Statcast xERA to go overlooked. He has a fastball that sits in the mid-90s, as well as a nasty changeup and cutter, both of which sit in the low-90s. Underwood has shown plenty of unlocked potential in the bullpen with that pitch mix and his strikeout stuff, and no organization helps relievers flourish better than the Rays.

Acquiring 2 pitchers would mean the Rays would have to free up a roster spot, so I have Ryan Thompson going to Pittsburgh with Underwood effectively taking his place in this scenario. Thompson's ERA and FIP are both north of 4, but his exit velocity and expected stats are brilliant, meaning his ERA should probably be lower given the quality of contact he gives up. He would fit better on a rebuilding team; in an intense playoff race where every win counts, the Rays simply don't have time to hope that he will "positively regress" and start pitching like his peripherals say he should.

The Pirates will undoubtedly ask for a prospect if they have to give up a pitcher with team control alongside Quintana. By himself, Quintana doesn't have a whole lot of value: he was awful in 2021, with a 6.43 ERA between the Angels and Giants. His age and his worsening track record prior to this season suggested that his time in the majors might have been over, so given that, I would assume the Rays see him purely as a rental. It's tough to make a full financial commitment to a pitcher when it's unlikely he'll pitch like this again.

So, bearing in mind the fact that Underwood could very well be the more valuable piece in this deal in the long run, I have the Rays sending their #11 prospect according to MLB.com, southpaw Ian Seymour. The 23-year-old has a good pitch mix and quickly made it known that he was too advanced for class A in 2021, so he got 2 starts in a small stint at AAA Durham at the end of last year and didn't give up a run in 10 innings. He started this year in AA, but performed poorly before going down with Tommy John surgery, which will keep him out for the foreseeable future. The Rays made him a 2nd-round pick in the limited 2020 draft, so the Pirates would be getting a skilled arm once he heals.

Mock Trade #2
To TB: OF Edward Olivares
To KC: IF Jonathan Aranda, LHP Josh Fleming

This one has a few more strings attached because Olivares is currently injured and likely won't be activated until after the deadline, making this a potential trade not unlike the deal that sent Eddie Rosario to the Braves in 2021. Rays fans are thoroughly sick of injured players by now, but Olivares doesn't appear to have a long-term injury (quad strain), and he's an outfielder that can hit, something that has been sorely missed in St. Pete this year. He's only 26 years old, meaning he is under team control for a while, and has stepped up somewhat surprisingly to be one of Kansas City's best hitters this year.

He's batting over .300 with an OPS+ of 123, and has experience at all 3 outfield positions. He hasn't offered much in the slugging department (just 7 extra base-hits in 36 games this season), but he's a young outfielder who can hit the ball hard (89.8 average exit velocity) that's worth taking a flyer on, just because Rays outfielders have had so much trouble at the plate this season. He could also be a long-term solution in center field on a team that, with Kiermaier's contract expiring after this year, doesn't have many.

From the Royals' perspective, it might seem like a bad idea to trade a young outfielder with both power and speed, but they would be a lot more tempted if Jonathan Aranda were part of the return. Aranda is a 24-year-old infielder (mostly second and first base) that is mashing at AAA, with 14 home runs and a .957 OPS in 75 games. That performance has awarded him his first 7 games at the Major League level, a sample in which he posted a .375 batting average.

Aranda is one of the Rays' more underrated prospects and he still doesn't have a permanent spot on the big league roster for whatever reason. He would also join an already exciting group of young infielders in K.C., headlined by Bobby Witt Jr. and Vinnie Pasquantino. In addition, I have Kansas City asking for one more piece in this trade, left-handed pitcher Josh Fleming.

Fleming is also on the IL with an oblique injury, due to return in mid-August. His ERA sits at 6.84 and his WHIP at 1.98, but that is mostly driven by plenty of unlucky hits against: His 4.15 FIP and 4.27 xERA indicate that he is closer to being an average pitcher than someone who deserves to be in the minor leagues, and his average of just over 3 innings per appearance make him usable as either an opener or long reliever. A fresh start in a low-pressure environment could help him get back on track.