Rays could target young Dodgers outfielder after Teoscar Hernandez signing

Ah, the Los Angeles Dodgers, a familiar trade partner, both because of recent deals and because they have former Rays front office leader Andrew Friedman leading the charge.

And why wouldn't the Rays target yet another outfielder from the Dodgers, especially after Jonny DeLuca had such a strong finish to 2024.

Ok, those things have nothing to do with each other, but that lazy connection is a decent enough segway into talking about a potential extra outfielder the Rays could target via trade.

The Dodgers brought back corner outfielder Teoscar Hernandez on a 3-year deal this week, and after extending Tommy Edman earlier in the offseason, this could mean they're willing to part ways with the slick-fielding outfielder James Outman.

The Rays' current roster has only Jonny DeLuca as a proven major league center fielder.

Jake Mangum is fine, but has yet to show anything at the major league level, and after him they lack a true third center field option on their 40-man roster, a hole that they could easily fill by calling Friedman and checking in on Outman.

So what value does Outman provide, and why should the Rays target him?

The biggest and main reason is his glove. He didn't get a whole lot of playing time in center field this past season due to poor performance at the plate (which will be discussed later), but he still managed to post a 2 outs above average mark in almost 340 innings in center field for the 2024 season.

The previous year, he posted a remarkable 9 mark in that same category over around 1,100 innings, and his athletic ability speaks to someone who should be able to maintain that level of play at a prime position.

His 28.8 miles per hour sprint speed is good for the 87th percentile in baseball last season.

Now, where he becomes tough is at the plate. He had a remarkable 2023 season where he batted to the tune of a 118 wRC+, which combined with his superlative center field defense gave him a 4-win season according to FanGraphs, but in 2024 there was a severe regression, with his total production dropping to 54 in wRC+.

Unfortunately for Outman, there's not one single area in which he got worse, it's pretty much across the board. His K-rate went up, his walk rate went down (although not enough to truly speak to a true regression), his power numbers took a drop off a cliff, and he didn't get the same BABIP luck that he did in 2023.

Fortunately, the good news is that Outman might have had some amazing luck in 2023 and some downright rotten luck in 2024, meaning that while he might not reach that same level of production that he did in 2023, it's not unrealistic to assume his 2024 was a blip in the other direction.

So he won't be Taylor Walls or Alex Jackson, but he probably won't be Brandon Lowe or 2023 Yandy Diaz up there either. He'll sit somewhere in the middle of the pack.

Which, combined with his hopefully continued excellent defense, will make for an incredibly valuable player, one that could compete with Jonny DeLuca for the starting center field position or at the very least give the Rays more versatility with their roster.

Outman has the usual left-handed-hitter splits, as he hits righties pretty well but struggles a bit against lefties, which is fine for the Rays as their lineup can skew a bit right-handed heavy.

On the bases Outman can be a very valuable player as well, as he put that speed to good use in 2023 earning a 4 in the baserunning runs metric on Baseball Savant.

Basically, Outman's floor on the Rays would be as a 4th outfielder who can be an upgrade defensively above pretty much everyone and can be counted on to be a fine starter for anyone who needs a day off, but his ceiling is a solid 2-win center fielder, which isn't that far off from what they had in Jose Siri.

Plus, likely the most compelling argument for Outman for the Rays, he's a pre-arb player, meaning he'll be cheap and around for hopefully a few more years.

What would the Rays have to give up for Outman is the big question, and while it's not likely Brandon Lowe or Pete Fairbanks, it might be their 3rd valuable trade piece Zack Littell.

Littell fits what the Dodgers need right now, which is a reliable starting pitcher who hopefully won't spend half the season on the IL.

Plus, if the Rays part with Littell, they could maybe even ask for that fun catching prospect that was discussed earlier in the offseason by a certain someone.

Either way, Outman is someone to monitor moving forward for the Rays, as he no longer seemingly has a fit with the Dodgers.