What Statcast's new baserunning metrics reveal about the Rays

Statcast has paraded out some fancy new metrics surrounding one of the most fascinating aspects of baseball: baserunning.

While this can be very difficult to measure, in the past most people have focused on counting stats such as stolen bases or things like extra-base hits to measure a player's speed.

Now, the public has access to wonderful ways to assess a player's contributions on the bases, and Statcast has come out with yet another way to do so in the past week, breaking baserunning values down into contributions on the bases via the stolen base or the extra base taken. These statistics are able to reveal some interesting aspects of players across baseball, but even more specifically with the Tampa Bay Rays.

Jose Caballero is the first player to pop into most Rays fans' minds, as he led the American with 44 stolen bases for the 2024 season.

However, despite that high total, Caballero actually ranked 88th in total baserunning runs.

This may be due to his exceptionally high caught stealing total, which was a whopping 16 times that he was thrown out trying to nab a base.

Or this could be due to his lack of ability to advance bases more than the average player because unfortunately, his abilities at the plate precluded him from many opportunities to take that extra base.

Probably a bit of both. Caballero has been quite fun to watch as a pest on the bases, but the idea that his antics and his attempts are always wise is challenged.

The good news for Panama native is that his net bases gained, which combines bases created and the cost of the outs caused by individual runners. These numbers were rather good, coming in at 15th with his 16th on the 2024 season.

But unfortunately, the middle infielder also comes in dead last in the outs created vs. average category with a -16 mark in that category.

All of this is nothing new to Rays leadership, as the common refrain is that the general public is usually at least a few years behind what metrics or evaluations teams have and use, so Caballero's baserunning is likely to be under the microscope moving forward if he's to keep his role as a bench infielder and pinch runner in 2025.

A fun inclusion to the list was 27-year old outfielder, Richie Palacios, who came in 66th place with two baserunning runs for the year despite only playing in 92 games.

Palacios came into Tampa Bay from the Cardinals as a contact-first second-baseman and corner outfielder with above-average speed, but the Rays seemed to figure something out and help him use that athleticism to his full advantage.

Part of that is from Palacios' ability to get a better lead than most players, as he finished 15th in the league for average lead distance gained in all stolen base opportunities.

The hope would be that Palacios can earn a bit of a starting role in a corner outfield spot and continue his growth in this area, especially since his plate discipline metrics speak to someone who should be on base at a fairly decent clip.

Another quality, but unsurprising, inclusion was fellow corner outfielder, Josh Lowe, who managed to come in 65th place with two baserunning runs as well.

Lowe has always been a proficient baserunner, stealing bases at an excellent clip at every level, and despite dealing with numerous injuries to start the year and under-performance throughout the season, he was still able to perform on the base paths.

Lowe continued this trend in 2024, with a 12 net bases gained mark with no outs created above average. It may sound like a bad thing, but for a guy who steals quite a few bags it's actually pretty productive.

He uses that 79th percentile sprint speed to his full advantage and his 5.4 feet gained in lead distance, a mark good for 6th in baseball for the 2024 season.

Like Palacios, Lowe figures to be a big part of the Rays' plans for this season, and the Rays certainly hope he can bounce back to his 2023 form and have a healthier 2025.