Why the Rays should take a chance on this Rockies sidearm reliever

The Colorado Rockies can be known more for being the butt of jokes about incompetence in baseball, but they definitely have some interesting position players in their system.

Brenton Doyle is one of the best defensive center fielders in the game, Ezequiel Tovar is a solid young shortstop, and Michael Toglia looks like a fun power bat that can play first or a corner outfield spot.

Their pitching, though? Could use some work.

That doesn't mean they don't have some fascinating talent, and that includes sidearm righty Justin Lawrence.

Lawrence turned 30 a little under a month ago, and he has yet to truly break through at the major league level.

2023 was the high of his career thus far, as he managed to compile a 1.2 fWAR and a 3.76 FIP for the season.

He debuted in 2021, hung around for an average-at-best 2022, and took a real step back this past season in 2024, getting lit up to the tune of a 5.63 FIP.

What gives, why did Lawrence experience such a massive drop in his production last year?

Well, from a results standpoint, he gave up the long ball at an alarmingly high rate any time a guy hit the ball in the air, even for a pitcher in Colorado, as his FB/HR ratio jumped to 18% for the season, up from 8.1 and 9.4 marks the previous 2 seasons.

His only 2 pitches he throws are a sinker and a sweeper, and his Stuff+ metrics were largely the same in 2024 as they were in his successful seasons, with the sweeper rating as a filthy secondary pitch to a below-average primary sinker.

The Rays are known for turning pitchers into great contributors, and Lawrence could be another one of those projects that's wildly successful.

Despite its relatively weak nature, Lawrence used his sinker around 60% of the time compared to 40% for the far more effective sweeper.

The Rays might advise him to have that split either reversed or narrowed to more of a 50-50 range.

Lawrence's arm angle has also moved around a bit over the years, with a flat 0 degree angle in 2022 dropping to -5 in 2023 then rising to -2 last season.

The Rays could try to provide a bit of stability to that action and advise Lawrence to drop his arm back to the 2023 level to try and reclaim the success of that season. Regardless, the 30-year old could easily find a home in a deep Rays bullpen.