Rays should target Diamondbacks starter after Corbin Burnes signing

With the recent signing of former Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes, the Arizona Diamondbacks have five solid starting pitchers (plus Jordan Montgomery, who is, um, well, it's the holidays, it's better to be nice).

With Burnes in the fold they have a dauntiing rotation of Burnes, Eduardo Rodriguez, Zac Gallen, Brandon Pfaadt, and Merrill Kelly.

That leaves 26-year-old Ryne Nelson without a starting rotation spot. While the Diamondbacks could easily hold onto Nelson for depth purposes, as he still has options so he can be sent down if needed, the concept of getting some extra value for their bullpen or lineup would be a fine idea for a team seemingly eager to be competitive right now.

And good for them; this is not meant to be a piece complaining about the Diamondbacks making a possibly unwise decision regarding the big contract they just gave a possibly declining Corbin Burnes; it's more fun and better for the game when more teams are willing to spend to improve their roster.

Although, one team's depth could be another team's back-end starter, and the Rays could very well have a need for that, especially if they deal Zack Littell, who is due to make more than league minimum this year. That price tag could likely put the former reliever out of the Rays price range.

In contrast, Nelson is still a pre-arbitration player for 2025 and won't be a free agent for a few years, as he enters his first year of arbitration in 2026.

There's also quite a bit to like about Nelson's abilities.

He threw close to 150 innings over the past couple of seasons, speaking to someone who can at the very least get the Rays some much-needed bulk innings as they go through a strange 2025 season.

The right-hander also has an incredibly low walk rate, which would be a pitcher who already has that wonderful Rays philosophy of "just throw strikes."

Thomas Nestico also did a great breakdown of Nelson on X/Twitter, noting that "From July onwards he posted a 3.05 ERA and 3.14 FIP across 82.2 IP which was supplemented by an increase in tjStuff+ on his fastball and cutter. The stuff is solid and the command will make him a formidable backend starter."

The big plus for this Nevada native is his tremendous fastball, and he rightfully uses the pitch a lot, throwing it 56% of the time last year.

He gets an average of 18.3 inches of rise and 5.7 inches of tail on the pitch, and it sits at around 95 MPH on average.

The improvement the Rays could suggest would be for Nelson to use his slider a bit more, as the pitch grades out quite well in Stuff+ with a 111 mark last year and 109 for his career, but only a 8% usage rate last season, compared to an 18% rate for his cutter, which graded out poorly last year with a 78 on Stuff+.

Combine all of that with above-average extension (81st percentile in that category last year), and Nelson has the foundation of what could be a fun pitcher.

So the good news is that while Nelson's overall production might not inspire the hope that he can be a good back-end starter, the Rays are always great at sprinkling their magic pixie dust on pitchers and turning them into valuable players, and Nelson could be the next in line.

But what would the Rays have to give up for Nelson?

Similarly to James Outman, the Rays could get away with not giving up a whole lot, as Nelson is also likely to be viewed as more of a depth piece than a prospect or a solidified MLB starter.

Plus, since the Diamondbacks already have Ketel Marte and Josh Naylor, Yandy Diaz and Brandon Lowe are safe.

So that leaves Pete Fairbanks or Zack Littell if the Diamondbacks want to have a more proven "6th starter," or if they decide to move on from Gallen and need to regain a true 5th starter.

Or, maybe this is being far too high on Nelson and the Rays could give up Jose Caballero or Ben Rortvedt and a low-level prospect and avoid trading one of their better players.

Either way, the Rays would be wise to check in on this talented hurler, and it wouldn't be shocking to hear they already have, but it's still early in the offseason. It should be fun to see what they do moving forward.