Predicting 2026 AL East standings: Where do Rays land?

In arguably the fiercest division in baseball, the options are nearly endless. A Blue Jays club that was projected to be last or second to last in the AL East, wound up winning the division and going all the way to the World Series. Almost every expert and fan projects that the Rays will fall into the bottom half of the AL East and we're not opposed to that thought process. However, with a healthy rotation throughout the year and some one-run games going our way, anything could happen. Nonetheless, let's dive into some predictions!

1. Orioles

Aug 21, 2024; New York City, New York, USA; Baltimore Orioles shortstop Gunnar Henderson (2) attempts to turn a double play after forcing out New York Mets first baseman Pete Alonso (not pictured) during the eighth inning at second base at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images | Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

This is a hot take after the 75-win Orioles finished last in the division last season. However, they were the best last place team in the majors and that may mean something if we consider how well their offseason is going. The additions of Pete Alonso, Taylor Ward, and Leody Tavares will certainly bolster their offense in a win-now mentality. Meanwhile, the pitching staff looks much stronger with newly acquired veteran Chris Bassitt and former Ray Shane Baz. Baltimore finished 2025 on a 14-11 run, so they may be able to use that momentum and their reinforcements to climb to the top of the AL East.

2. Yankees (WC)

Oct 2, 2025; Bronx, New York, USA; New York Yankees outfielder Cody Bellinger (35) reacts at second base after hitting a double in the fourth inning against the Boston Red Sox during game three of the Wildcard round for the 2025 MLB playoffs at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images | Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

The Yankees didn't and they didn't gain much after a successful regular season gave them 94 wins and the top Wild Card spot. However, it's never a success in New York if they don't come out holding a trophy. Their last World Series ring is still the 2009 championship that keeps looking further and further away. Nonetheless, this team is still very good and a second-place finish along with a Wild Card positioning would likely be the worst-case scenario.

3. Blue Jays (WC)

Feb 11, 2026; Dunedin, FL, USA; Toronto Blue Jays pitcher Trey Yesavage (39) works out for spring training practice at Blue Jays Player Development Complex. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images | Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images

After falling inches shy of their first World Series ring since 1993, we predict that the talented Blue Jays will still reach the playoffs despite finishing third in the best American League division. They added some key newbies in Dylan Cease and Kazuma Okamoto, but the loss of two-time All Star Bo Bichette may affect their offense more than they realize.

4. Rays

Mar 1, 2025; Port Charlotte, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Rays pitcher Shane McClanahan (18) throws a pitch against the New York Mets in the second inning during spring training at Charlotte Sports Park. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images | Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

The Rays had a respectable offseason for their standards, but it's very hard to tell how well this team will perform considering the overhaul of their roster. The newest starting pitchers, Steven Matz and Nick Martinez, will bolster and already strong rotation. Also, Rays ace Shane McClanahan will be returning to the staff for the first time since 2023 with hopes of picking up where he left off. The offense has plenty of question marks with the loss of power hitting Brandon Lowe and hustling Jake Mangum. We can't forget that Junior Caminero is a perennial MVP candidate and Yandy Diaz likely still has plenty in the tank after a 25-homer campaign.

5. Red Sox

Sep 9, 2025; West Sacramento, California, USA; Boston Red Sox left fielder Jarren Duran (16) smiles after getting hit by a pitch during the ninth inning against the Athletics at Sutter Health Park. Mandatory Credit: Sergio Estrada-Imagn Images | Sergio Estrada-Imagn Images

Well, someone has to finish last in this division. It may not be the Red Sox, but after losing Alex Bregman to free agency, their lineup looks much less daunting. However, a resurging Ceddanne Rafaela and the addition of 2025 Rookie of the Year candidate Caleb Durbin, they still deserve some respect.

1. Orioles

2. Yankees (WC)

3. Blue Jays (WC)

4. Rays

5. Red Sox

Schedule